redistricting 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012 at 04:46:52 AM EST
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If you're one of those political junkie types who can't get enough of the redistricting debate, you simply must tune into this weekend's edition of Power&Politics on News12. The show airs Saturdays AND Sundays at 10am and 3pm.
Several segments discuss the state's new Congressional boundaries, and I get a chance to weigh in as well, debating my (mostly) friendly rival, Chris Russell from South Jersey. Monmouth U. Poll-meister Patrick Murray, Montclair State political scientist Brigid Harrison, GOP lobbyist Tom Wilson and PolitickerNJ's Alan Steinberg guest star as well. |
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Thu Dec 29, 2011 at 05:43:38 PM EST
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Now, who might put out a story like this?
PolitickerNJ is reporting that according to "two sources with knowledge of the offer" say that DCCC offered a cool $1 million to Steve Rothman if he stayed in the 5th to challenge Scott Garrett. And that the offer would slide up to $2 mil if polling showed the matchup competitive.
The sources are unnamed.
What would be the motivation for somebody to tell politicker this?
DCCC? No. Rothman has already declared his intentions in the 9th, no reason to screw a 15-year House member. Even if the story's true, it doesn't serve DCCC to embarrass a congressional Dem.
Rothman's team? Obviously, no. Only hurts the boss.
There's a lot of anger directed at Rothman now from some corners. You can read it all over our pages, but not from me. Disappointment, even for some a sense of betrayal, that Rothman would "take the easy route" and compete with another Democrat in the district Pascrell now lives in, but with constituents the bulk of which Rothman represents. Resentment that Rothman declined to challenge a Tea Party love-object in a district with a clear GOP advantage.
I have no idea if the item is true or not. But I can't help thinking who gains in a story without evidence or confirmation from the players that makes Rothman look bad, or look like somebody DCCC might write off. Am I too cynical?
And I thought 2012 was going to be fun.
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Wed Dec 28, 2011 at 10:21:50 PM EST
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Last Friday, when he chose the Republican map, Redistricting Commission tiebreaker John Farmer suggested that the new map "honors more completely New Jersey's diversity." To say this about a map which targets the only Jewish member of the delegation for elimination (though Congressman Rothman obviously isn't cooperating with Dean Farmer's plan) and provides no new meaningful opportunities for minorities elsewhere takes, well, chutzpah. Follow me below the fold as I explain why this map denigrates, rather than honors, New Jersey's diversity.
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Wed Dec 28, 2011 at 12:26:00 PM EST
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Yesterday, Rep. Steve Rothman made it official, that congressional redistricting will lead him to challenge not Tea Party darling Scott Garrett into whose district his home has been drawn, but Bill Pascrell, a fellow Dem elected to Congress the same year he was 15 years ago.
You can imagine the rending of garments at DCCC. And the state party. But given the imperative towards re-election hard-wired in House members, whose 2-year election cycle keeps them in perpetual re-elect, and the fact that much of the new district Pascrell now lives in is Rothman stomping ground, Rothman's move has some logic. He was mayor of Englewood 2 terms, and that's where he'll relocate back into district. He already reps nearly 55% of the people (61% of registered Dems) in the new 9th, he says. (hat/tip Daily Kos Elections for this chart, which shows Rothman 53.95%, Pascrell 42.90%).
Rothman v. Pascrell was immediate national news, a race between colleagues on the same side of most issues, sharing a party, supporting the same president in a presidential year. How awful will this race be? How personal their complaints against one another? How much will it divide the rest of us?
Mabe we have some clues in Rothman's first endorse list of 61 people; legislators, the Hudson & Bergen Dem Chairs, mayors, and municipal chairs, a Bergen-heavy list. Prominent are incoming Senate Majority Leader (and Blue Jerseyan) Loretta Weinberg, longtime Rothman ally, and both Assemblywoman Connie Wagner and Assemblyman-elect Tim Eustace, the two names with the most buzz as potential challengers to Scott Garrett in the contest Rothman passed on.
Pascrell, for his part has solid support from Passaic Chair John Currie, and gave no evidence of worry. Pascrell described himself as:
"a fighter who is ready for whatever may come. I will be as relentless in the election as I have been for my constituents. I do not know the meaning of the word quit.
Rothman's full endorsement list, after the jump. If Pascrell is developing a similar list, Blue Jersey would very much like to see it.
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Wed Dec 28, 2011 at 09:19:20 AM EST
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This past week, we've seen a lot about the impact of congressional redistricting and the positioning of candidates in North Jersey for the upcoming election. Congressman Steve Rothman has declared that he will move and challenge his colleague Bill Pascrell in a primary rather than face incumbent Republican extremist Scott Garrett. Whether or not Rothman's decision is a good one, it hurts me to see two Democrats spending a million dollars to knock each other off when the money could be better spent in an all-out effort to oust Garrett, one of the worst members of Congress.
It also bothers me that the Fourth Estate has virtually ignored the important race in the Third District. Another member of the "worst congressman's club" is former NFL bad boy and current congressman Jon Runyan. Runyan's voting record is as bad as Garrett's, and over time if Runyan builds up seniority in the House, his impact will be just as deleterious.
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Mon Dec 26, 2011 at 11:36:24 PM EST
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Some time tonight, according to an account in The Record, Congressman Steve Rothman called his Democratic colleague in the NJ congressional delegation and informed him of what has been rumored for days; he will challenge Pascrell in the newly redrawn district that now contains key towns they have both relied on for re-election.
It's got to be a good night to be Scott Garrett.
Rothman's going to move to Englewood, where he was once mayor, and make that a home base for his campaign. He'll make the formal announcement Tuesday.
More after the fold.
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Mon Dec 26, 2011 at 09:44:37 PM EST
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http://www.nj.com/news/index.s...
U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman (D-9th Dist.) is telling Democrats he plans to challenge Bill Pascrell (D-8th Dist.) in the June primary, according to two Democratic sources with knowledge of the congressman's thinking.
A few anonymous sources are quoted for the article. An announcement from Rothman is apparently due this week.
Needless to say, I am sorry to have found this out, and I hope a strong Democrat will come forward to take on Garrett. It's obviously going to be someone without a $1.5 million war chest, but we need to support them all the same.
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Mon Dec 26, 2011 at 10:14:31 AM EST
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Over the last year or so, Daily Kos has launched 3 verticals that pull out some of the best stuff in what can, for me, be a cacophony of posts competing for not only for the mind but for the eye. I know I've missed good stuff, just because there's so much stuff. Pulling those 3 new verticals - Comics, Labor & Elections - out as concentrations, with their own editors keeping watch, make Daily Kos a more readable site, at least for me. Particularly because NJ's election cycle means we have crucial contests every year, and some of the most important Labor news in the country's coming out of this state.
David Jarman (scroll for editor bio) is one of the editors of DK Elections. He's got a post on the outcome of NJ congressional redistricting that I missed just before Christmas, but popped up in my Google Alerts this morning. Thought you'd enjoy the view of NJ redistricting from outside NJ. From Daily Kos Elections:
New Jersey redistricting: Commission tiebreaker opts for the Republican map.
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Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 11:15:05 PM EST
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We're not very happy with this new map. Bergen, the most populous County, might not have a Congressman who actually lives in Bergen for the first time in years. Dividing Teaneck into two congressional districts does create problems in building community in a diverse town. Breaking up the African American community in the 37th district into two different congressional districts is also somewhat problematic to preserving a commonality of interests. We assume our Congressman Steve Rothman, a member of the Appropriations Committee, with some seniority in our congressional delegation, is examining his options. Interesting to see how it plays out. We certainly didn't fare well in this one.
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Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 12:53:24 PM EST
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If your map is so much better, why won't you release it to the public?
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Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 11:05:54 AM EST
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Here's the new New Jersey, the GOP proposal for redrawing NJ's now-12 congressional districts, chosen by the NJ Congressional Redistricting Commission's tie-breaking member, John Farmer, Jr.
NJ Congressional Redistricting Map (North Section):
NJ Congressional Redistricting Map (Central Section):
NJ Congressional Redistricting Map (South Section):
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Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 10:24:56 AM EST
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UPDATE 11:14, motion by Democrats to table map 'till next month fails. UPDATE 11:06 (Rosi Efthim): I just put up close-ups of the new districts in 3 sections - north, central, south. It's close-up enough that you should be able to look, find your town, and see which district you're now in - Find Your Town - the New Congressional Redistricting Map.
Update 11am, Jeannine Frisby LaRue cites "serious problems" with the map. Specifically the slicing and dicing in NJ-3 and Bergen County. Go girl! Update 10:57, DuHaime and Roberts playing ping pong. Is the former Speaker planting the seeds for a lawsuit? UPDATE 10:47 (Rosi Efthim) Here's the map:
UPDATE 10:34 - The status is still listed as Pending, but when things get underway, you can listen LIVE to the session here, from Committee Room 11 at the Statehouse. (keep refreshing) - Rosi Efthim
10:33 Cherry Hill moved to nj-1 is the pre-map chatter. Oy. 10:26 and waiting for the new maps to be revealed.
(pics to follow....)
 NJ-3's new Cherry Hill-free configuration. Click to enlarge. North Jersey map below. Click to enlarge in detail.
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Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 08:07:58 AM EST
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nj.com is reporting that the NJ Congressional Redistricting Commission's tie-breaking member has chosen the map of new congressional districts, 12 this time instead of 13, proposed by the Republican 6-member team.
Both the Dem & GOP maps focused on creating a combined 5th District & 9th District (currently repped by Scott Garrett and Steve Rothman respectively). The GOP map designed the combined district to favor Garrett.
The formal vote comes at 10am this morning at the statehouse.
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Thu Dec 22, 2011 at 02:17:23 PM EST
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Tomorrow, 13 people will decide the configuration of New Jersey's 12 congressional districts for the next five election cycles. In reality, of course, the decision rests with just one person: former Attorney General John Farmer, who will likely choose between the final proposals of the six-member Democratic delegation and the six-member Republican delegation. If legislative redistricting is any indication, we'll know whose map will be selected long before we know what either party's proposal looks like.
Before the lawmakers actually take a final vote, there will a brief debate over the proposals. This debate is a mere formality. Nobody will be persuaded to change his vote on the plan. The commission won't adopt or even vote any amendments to make either proposal better. The outcome of the vote at the end of this meaningless debate will surprise no one.
There will be no opportunity for public comment. While the Commission did hold a few meetings before ensconcing themselves in the Heldrich Hotel in New Brunswick to fight out the details of the map, few members of the public attended this meeting. The small crowds were understandable, given that the stakes were exactly zero at the time; the commission had not even proposed a map. Members of the public could offer only general statements, most of which we've heard before: Don't split town A. The map should account for growth in minority group B in this or that part of the state. Districts should be compact. Congressman C is so wonderful; please keep him in my district. Districts should be more competitive.
These early-meeting comments may have found attentive ears and acquiescing nods, but they have doubtless long since been forgotten. Those who managed to put a close ally on the commission can still influence the process. But anyone else who wants to weigh in at this decisive stage must do so either through back channels or through the (old or new) media. Of course, commentary now is not much more useful than commentary at public meetings, unless you know what the Commission is actually up to. Citizens cannot make informed and relevant comments on proposals they have never seen. Again, those who don't have insider access must rely on rumors and speculation. The Commission does not have to make any proposal public until the decision has already been made.
If just about any other governmental entity in this state enacted a rule or ordinance in such an opaque and secretive manner, the courts would probably strike it down for egregious violations of the state's Open Public Meetings Act (or Administrative Procedure Act, as the case may be). But the Commission enjoys an exemption from public meetings laws. There's no good reason for this exemption. Members of the public should have the opportunity to weigh in on real proposals before they're enacted. A task so important should not be insulated from public comment.
Redistricting would work better when done in the sunshine. At the very least, the legislature should amend the Open Public Meetings Act to cover the congressional and legislative redistricting commissions. Even better, the entire process should be changed so that incumbent and partisan interests don't control it so much. This way, the result will better reflect what's best for New Jersey.
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Thu Dec 22, 2011 at 10:06:40 AM EST
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The Republican, elected to Congress in 2003, is one of the most vexing in an already right-leaning House of Representatives; a wingnut the tea party loves to love. The Democrat, who went to Congress in 1997, came out early for Barack Obama when nearly the entire NJ Democratic establishment was pushing Hillary Clinton, and became the president's Northeast Regional co-Chair.
Now, the Democratic members of NJ's congressional redistricting commission have submitted a final map that pits Scott Garrett (NJ-5) against Steve Rothman (NJ-9) in one competitive district, as reported in nj.com this morning.
John Farmer, Jr. the former New Jersey Attorney General and current Rutgers-Newark Law School Dean, now is empowered to decide between proposals from the Democratic and Republican teams, six members each. What the GOP proposes is still unclear.
New Jersey's population loss loses us one seat in the House, and the Democrats' plan focuses on the north, the region that has seen the greatest shifts. The NJ congressional delegation as it stands now is 7 Democrats, 6 Republicans. The Democrats' map would create 6 safe districts for Democrats, 5 for Republicans and the competitive district one both parties - and perhaps two incumbent congressmen - would have to battle for.
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Sat Dec 17, 2011 at 10:52:18 AM EST
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it's obvious a lot of work went into this. - promoted by Rosi
Cross posted on my blog http://racesandredistricting.b... which has more redistricting maps and election analysis.
New Jersey is one of the few states with a bipartisan redistricting commission. This means that even if one party holds the redistricting trifecta (Governorship and both houses of the legislature,) both parties will have a voice when New Jersey's state legislature and congressional lines are redrawn. At a first glance, a bipartisan commission suggests that the commission will draw a fair map that creates competitive districts that give opportunities for Democrats and Republicans to win. Also, a bipartisan commission would suggest a map with districts that combine communities of interest. The 2002 map that the commission drew though failed to create competitive districts that combined enough communities of interest. There were 13 congressional seats during the 2000s in New Jersey. During the 2000s, only one seat changed hands. In 2008, John Adler (D) gained the 3rd congressional seat for the Democrats and in 2010, Jon Runyan (R) returned the seat to the Republicans. This seat does not combine communities of interest though. The 3rd district combines Cherry Hill, a suburb close to Philadelphia with Toms River, a community on the central Jersey Shore. In my map's new 3rd district, it represents urban areas along the Delaware River instead of crossing the state to connect two different suburban areas connected only by a few roads crossing the rural Pine Barrens. Also, this map creates more competitive districts by making the 7th district more competitive by having Obama win it with 54% but the Republicans winning the district's average. Also, Republicans perform well in local races in New Jersey so they will have a strong shot at a 54% Obama district. Overall, the map should be 8-3-1 Democrats compared to the current 7-6 Democratic delegation. Anyway, here is a link to the current maps: http://nationalatlas.gov/print...
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Wed Nov 09, 2011 at 01:28:40 PM EST
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"The new map still is more competitive than what previously existed."
- Christie spokesman Michael Drewniak in April after new map produced.
"I do believe we're going to make history [in the legislative elections]."
- Christie, October 31.
"The map did what I thought it would do."
- Christie, today.
Just sayin'...
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Wed Nov 09, 2011 at 10:01:53 AM EST
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By the end of this decade, New Jersey will be close to 50 percent people of color. That fact - and particularly the increase in the state's Latino population - was front and center in the redistricting debate earlier this year. And of course, our state is already comprised of 50 percent women.
With the results from yesterday's legislative elections in, how will the new Legislature compare on reflecting New Jersey's population?
Next year's Legislature will be the most racially and ethnically diverse in New Jersey history. As a result of several key areas flagged during redistricting being met - such as Latino representation in the 36th in the person of Marlene Caride and Nellie Pou moving to the Senate in the 35th to replace John Girgenti (which in turn led to that district having two new African-American assembly members, Shavonda Sumter and Benjie Wimberly), 29 of the state's 120 legislative seats will be held by people of color starting January, a record. Latinos picked up two seats (including a Senate seat) to reach an all-time high of 10 seats, and African-Americans reversed a minor decline in seat numbers over the past several cycles to reach 17 seats, which ties the prior all-time high. Asian-Americans held steady at 2 seats. These numbers still, however, represent significantly lower shares of Latinos and Asian-Americans than the population as a whole.
More below the fold...
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Sun Nov 06, 2011 at 12:49:34 PM EST
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Unless a miracle takes place this Tuesday and Republicans in LD1, LD3, and LD4 pull off major upsets, South Jersey party boss, George Norcross, will have more than enough votes to replace his primary adversary in the Assembly, Majority Leader Joe Cryan, with his top ally in the legislative body, Louis Greenwald, sending Cryan to the back bench.
What remains to be seen, however, is what Cryan will do once he is sent there. Will he unite with his fellow back bencher in the Senate, Dick Codey, to build an opposition movement that will contend not only for the Governor's office in 2013, but also all 120 legislative seats? As much as I would love to see this, I do not expect that this will happen. It is very possible that Dick Codey will run for Governor in 2013, but it is also possible that Cory Booker, Barbara Buono, and Steve Sweeney will run as well and it is unlikely that any of them will run opposition slates against the party lines that they do not win, which means that regardless of who wins the gubernatorial primary, there will not be much change in the legislative roster or its leadership.
If I am right about this, then Cryan will most likely remain on the back bench for most of the next decade. That is, unless he finds a new office for which to run or that office finds him. There have been times in the past decade when Cryan expressed an interest in running for Congress in the 7th district, but admitted that the current configuration of the district made it extremely difficult for a Democrat to win.
This is very true. Our best chance to win this district came in 2006 when a very popular Assemblywoman, Linda Stender, challenged a very unpopular Congressman Mike Ferguson in a year that Democrats were trending up and Republicans were trending down. However, despite these trends, Stender came a few thousand votes short of victory. Two years later, Stender did not run as strong of a campaign as she did in 2006 and faced a very popular State Senator, Leonard Lance. Despite huge turnout increases inspired by Barack Obama's candidacy, it was not enough for a Democrat to win the 7th and Lance defeated Stender by a much wider margin than Ferguson did two years earlier.
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Fri Oct 21, 2011 at 07:28:15 AM EDT
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If you're around and available today at 10am, I hope you'll tune into Philly's NPR call-in talk show "Radio Times". I'll be the guest for today's first hour, joined my my friend and foe Brian McGovern of SaveJersey.com. The show runs from 10-11am. WHYY can be found at 90.9 on your FM dial, but you can also listen online. With the election just 17 days away, there's a lot to debate -- pension benefits, NJN RIP, Marriage and marijuana -- and I hope you'll call in to join in the fun. The number is 1-888-477-WHYY
(1-888-477-9499)
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