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2011 Primary Poll Results

by: Hopeful

Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 08:06:38 PM EDT

Poll are now closed. NJ.com posts election results here. While we're waiting, I recommend Patrick Murray's roundup of contested primaries. None of my races were contested but at least we had a candidate for each position!  

8:25: Primary day is a day to celebrate partisanship, so let's look at Monmouth's latest poll: Democrats are at 44% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Republicans are at 35% favorable and 54% unfavorable. "11% of the public holds favorable views of both major parties." Yes, when you walk down enough streets, every ninth person you see actually likes both parties! 35% of the public says they are Democrats and only 21% say they are Republicans.

9:54 Gloucester County turnout just 5.75%, but of course independents wouldn't vote. Republican turnout was 14.2% and Democrats just 8.37%. Not so impressive, but probably meaningless. Salem County (PDF) results here: turnout was 14.4% for Republicans and over 15% for Democrats

LD25: Republican incumbents win.

LD27: Democratic incumbents win

LD20: Lesniak and other Democratic incumbents win.

(See a trend yet?)

LD1 Republican county chair's candidates beat the convicted felon.

LD2: Longshot Gary Stein, who sometimes posts here, loses his challenge to the Democratic party's candidates..

LD14: Another challenger loses to the Republican party candidates.

Discuss :: (5 Comments)
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Now's the time to join the party

by: Heather_Taylor

Mon Mar 28, 2011 at 01:55:36 PM EDT

Many people get involved in politics because they are passionate about an issue; they are concerned about soaring property taxes, overdevelopment, ensuring quality education for our children, or guaranteeing our civil rights--whatever the issue, at one point or another your political party has had a heavy hand in the decision making process.

People understand that they need to participate in the political process if they want results. For most that participation is limited to showing up on Election Day and casting a vote, for the more engaged it may be going door to door and helping out in a specific candidate's campaign.

What we don't often recognize is that those individuals who assume party leadership have a direct impact on which candidates run and what issues are on the party platform (if any).  These positions are available to ANY concerned citizen and the time to seize the power is now.

The great thing about serving on the county committee is that it does not require a large investment of time, and provides a large measure of control of who represents us in Trenton.

In addition to electing the county party chair and awarding the party line for Senate and Assembly seats along with local offices, the county committee members participate in filling vacancies in office when someone resigns in disgrace, retires, or passes away. Shockingly, more than a third of the legislature has entered office by way of a vote of the county committee, not the general public.

It's because the county committees wield so much power that Senator Loretta Weinberg (D-37) and Senator Diane Allen (R-7) sponsored the Party Democracy Act, to ensure the political parties adopt rules and procedures ensuring fundamental fairness and guaranteeing a secret ballot when making important votes.  The Party Democracy Act was signed into law in 2009, and now every Republican and Democratic voter is offered a fair chance to vote their conscience.

So if you're ready to do something, here are some basic tips for running for county committee. 1) Find out from your municipal clerk which political party committee seats are up for election this year; 2) Complete the Party Declaration Form (Democratic or Republican Party) for the County Committee you wish to run for; 2) Get a petition & required number of signatures from the municipal clerk (in most cases no more than 10 signatures needed); 3) File the petition with your town clerk by April 11th; 4) Show up on June 7th with your family and friends and vote for yourself (most seats are won with just a few dozen votes or less).

Visit www.TheCitizensCampaign.com and take our free, half-hour online class and learn the tips and tools to become a successful neighborhood party leader.  

Once elected, you have the power to adopt or amend your party constitution, create your party platform, and seek the chairmanship of your county party.

The bottom line is, if you want to gain these powers, then you need to take this opportunity to step up to the plate.

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Lessons from the "Enlightened Eight": Republicans Can Vote Pro-Environment & Not Get "Tea Partied"

by: Heather TaylorMiesle NRDC Action Fund

Wed Jul 14, 2010 at 01:21:17 PM EDT

On June 26, 2009, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 219-212 in favor of HR 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES). Only eight Republicans - we'll call them the "Enlightened Eight" - voted "aye." These Republicans were Mary Bono-Mack (CA-45), Mike Castle (DE-AL), John McHugh (NY-23), Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2), Leonard Lance (NJ-7), Mark Kirk (IL-10), Dave Reichert (WA-8), and Christopher Smith (NJ-4).

Republicans voting for cap and trade in the year of the Tea Party? You'd think that they'd be dumped in the harbor by now. Instead, they're all doing fine. In fact, to date, not a single one of these Republicans has been successfully primaried by the "tea party" (or otherwise). Instead, we have two - Castle and Kirk - running for U.S. Senate, one (McHugh) who was appointed Secretary of the Army by President Obama, and five others - Bono-Mack, LoBiondo, Lance, Reichert, Smith - running for reelection.

Rep. Lance actually was challenged by not one, not two, but three "Tea Party" candidates. One of Lance's opponents, David Larsen, even produced this nifty video, helpfully explaining that "Leonard Lance Loves Cap & Trade Taxes." So, did this work? Did the Tea Partiers overthrow the tyrannical, crypto-liberal Lance? Uh, no. Instead, in the end, Lance received 56% of the vote, easily moving on to November.

Meanwhile, 100 miles or so south on the Jersey Turnpike, Rep. LoBiondo faced two "Tea Party" candidates - Donna Ward and Linda Biamonte - who also attacked on the cap-and-trade issue. According to Biamonte, cap and trade "is insidious and another tax policy... a funneling of money to Goldman Sachs and Al Gore through derivatives creating a carbon bubble like the housing bubble." You'd think that Republican primary voters in the year of the Tea Party would agree with this line of attack. Yet LoBiondo won with 75% of the vote.

Last but not least in New Jersey, Christopher Smith easily turned back a Tea Party challenger - Alan Bateman - by a more than 2:1 margin. Bateman had argued that "Obama knows he can count on Smith to support the United Nations' agenda to redistribute American wealth to foreign countries through international Cap & Trade agreements and other programs that threaten our sovereignty." Apparently, Republican voters in NJ-4 didn't buy that argument.

Across the country in California's 45th District, Mary Bono-Mack won 71% of the vote over Tea Party candidate Clayton Thibodeau on June 8. This, despite Thibodeau attacking Bono-Mack as "the only Republican west of the Mississippi to vote for Cap and Trade." Thibodeau also called cap and trade "frightening," claiming that government could force you to renovate your home or meet requirements before you purchase a home. Thibodeau's scare tactics on cap-and-trade clearly didn't play in CA-45.

Finally, in Washington's 8th Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert has drawn a Tea Party challenger named Ernest Huber, who writes that Cap and Trade "is widely viewed as an attempt at Soviet-style dictatorship using the environmental scam of global warming/climate change... written by the communist Apollo Alliance, which was led by the communist Van Jones, Obama's green jobs czar." We'll see how this argument plays with voters in Washington's 8th Congressional District, but something tells us it's not going to go over any better than in the New Jersey or California primaries.

In sum, it appears that it's quite possible for Republicans to vote for comprehensive, clean energy and climate legislation and live (politically) to tell about it. The proof is in the primaries.

Discuss :: (2 Comments)

New Jersey 2010 Primaries results thread

by: Hopeful

Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 09:06:37 PM EDT

Note: Updates are at the bottom of the post

Results are coming in from around the state.  House results at NJ.com:

At 9:02PM, Runyan at 6022 (55%) to Murphy at 4887 (45%). Not a strong showing by Runyan but a lead is a lead.

In NJ6, Little at 2,806 (53%) leads Gooch at 2448 (47%.) I find that surprising. It is 25% Reporting.

Lance is at only 56% but easily leads the nearest of his challengers.  Just 5% reporting there.

Adler is at 77% with 26% reporting.

There are lots of interesting primaries in other states -- I recommend Swing State Project, Talking Points Memo, and Daily Kos.

Update (9:14pm): Forgot to check NJ12, where teabagger Corsi leads Sipprelle 55%-45% with 19% reporting.  

Update (9:42) Runyan wins 56% to 44% with 98% reporting. Little still leads Gooch and Corsi still leads Sipprelle, but lots of districts still to report.

Update (9:58): Sipprelle just pulled ahead by a few hundred votes with 63% reporting.  Little has a nearly eight hundred vote lead with 43% reporting.

Update (10:13): Sipprelle remains ahead 6,506 to 6,113 with 71% reporting.  Little leads 5,639 to 4,981 with 64% reporting. I have no idea what districts are still out and whom they would favor.

Update (10:30) Gooch keeps creeping closer, but Little still leads 6000 to 5568 with 77% reporting. This is going to be very close.
Sipprelle is still leading.

Update (10:48) Photo finish coming! Little 6171, Gooch 5866 with 86% reporting.  

Update (11:10) The AP/NJ.com results say it's Little 6674 to Gooch 6579 with 99% reporting. Contradictory headlines have flashed by at PolitickerNJ but I think the small Little lead is correct. I imagine there will be a recount but it looks like Little will just barely make it.

Sipprelle pulled away in the late reporting districts and ended up winning 8,800 (54%) to 7521 (46%).  

Update (11:46) I should say Runyan ended up with 60%, better than the earlier reports.  

Discuss :: (10 Comments)

Bad habits

by: Hopeful

Tue May 18, 2010 at 06:44:41 PM EDT

I see Wally Edge has some complicated speculation about what would happen if Cory Booker left his job. (His director of communications now says Booker's in DC but it's not a job interview.) Leaving the Booker rumors aside, I was struck by this:

To make the hypothetical November special election a bit more appealing to the political what-iffers: one Democratic insider suggests that support for Payne Jr. for mayor could include a deal for U.S. Rep. Donald Payne (D-Newark) to drop his bid for re-election to a twelfth term in Congress.

Okay, I know the insiders love deals but could the party please at least pretend that our candidates are chosen in primaries? I'll admit I was glad Lautenberg got on the ballot instead of Torricelli, or that McGreevy delayed his resignation to avoid a quick general election, so I'm not pure here, but we're at the point that it's routine for Democratic office-holders to make resignation announcements late so that insiders can select the replacement. It's not a good trend at all in a state known for its corruption.

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40 Days Until Sestak-Specter and Halter-Lincoln

by: Senate Guru

Thu Apr 08, 2010 at 01:53:42 PM EDT

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

40 days from today - on May 18 - we will see two HUGE primaries for U.S. Senate.  Even though these races aren't in New Jersey, they impact Democrats across the country and, well, the entire country as a whole.

In Pennsylvania, Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak will try to upset Republican-for-decades Arlen Specter.

In Arkansas, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter will try to upset corporate lackey Blanche Lincoln.

These two races are tremendously important to defining who and what the Democratic Party is and what we will be fighting for.

If you can volunteer for these candidates (or encourage friends and family in Pennsylvania and Arkansas to do so), that would be amazing.

Of course, if you can help with a contribution to either or both via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page as soon as possible, it will make a big impact.

Expand the Map! ActBlue page
Joe Sestak

Facebook, Twitter

Volunteer Page
Bill Halter

Facebook, Twitter

Volunteer Page
Expand the Map! ActBlue page

Polling shows that both Specter and Lincoln are at risk of - if not likely to - hand these Senate seats over to far-right-wing Republicans. (And, even if these two retain the seats, that's not much better on many key issues.)

Congressman Sestak and Lieutenant Governor Halter winning these primaries are critical to keeping these seats in truly Democratic hands. Your support can help make that happen!  Please hop over to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page right away to make a contribution - an investment in the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party to pull out an old expression - and show your support.

Thanks SO much for any support you can provide. 40 Days.

Discuss :: (1 Comments)

Primaries all over the state for the GOP

by: Jason Springer

Tue Feb 16, 2010 at 10:45:00 AM EST

Congressman Leonard Lance doesn't just have to look at the Democrats when he plans his re-election campaign anymore as David Larsen announced he will make a run from the right. It seems like he' going to play the career politician card and off the bat pointed to Lance's vote on Cap and Trade as an issue he will raise. But in what can only be seen in an attempt to cut the legs out of his campaign, the conservative Senator Mike Doherty turned around to Tom Kean Jr. and other GOP elected officialsendorsing Lance:
I do not think Leonard Lance can be beaten in a Republican Primary. Even if David Larsen won, he would be cut out in redistricting in 2012."
Doherty's statement is sure to anger some of the same people that put him in office, but his decision seems to be more about is own political standing and thinking Lance is the safe bet so it's better to keep his powder dry in this one. Larsen will need to raise some seed money to show people he's serious and not just looking to loan his campaign money for the effort. I'm told that Lance won't be the only Republican to get a challenge from the tea party crowd as someone may run against Frank Lobiondo.

Then in the seats held by Democrats, there are a few primary races to run against the Incumbent. There are numerous candidate running in the 3rd district and Justin Murphy could also get support from the tea partiers as he runs again this year. There is also the primary to run against Rush Holt as Mike Halfacre and Scott Sipprelle will face off in a right v. further right battle and there may be more candidates to jump in the race. Assemblywoman Mary Pat Angelini and others have expressed interest in challenging to run against Frank Pallone as well. The tea partiers are even saying they may put someone up against Scott Garrett from the right, if that's possible in comments to stories that are being written. The amount of candidate running in GOP primaries can be seen as an indication of the enthusiasm and also anger out there with the public right now, who only want to see 8% of incumbent re-elected right now.

By contrast, the Democrats in New Jersey don't seem to like primaries as much. The only primary challenge I've seen so far is one against John Adler, but his warchest will make that an uphill climb. I know inside political circles they tend to shy away from primaries, because it makes you spend resources you want to conserve for the general election battle and take stands you often don't want to defend. But sometimes primaries can better prepare candidates for the trial by fire that is a general election campaign. Even if the GOP candidates don't win their primary challenges, the incumbents will already be in campaign mode given the voter angst right now. The competitive primaries to challenge Democratic incumbents will season them for the rigors of a race. With the climate  and public opinion where it is, it's important that candidates don't wait to start their campaigns and these primaries insure that the GOP won't.

Discuss :: (9 Comments)

DGA conference call

by: Hopeful

Sat Dec 05, 2009 at 11:15:02 AM EST

The monthly Democratic Governors Association (DGA) Blogger Conference Call was on Thursday, and I decided to participate even though our race is over. The DGA is excited to engage in next year's elections around the country, and is pushing a new website called thegopaccountabilityproject.com. Good stuff. They also discussed how the DGA has had a four-year plan, saving up for the elections next year, and will spend an average of one million dollars per race, though they are qquick to point out there are some races where they will spend nothing. One million dollars, after all, is less than they spent here. The call, by the way, was before the exciting recruitment of Bill White in Texas.

Much of the discussion was about specific states that are off-topic for this blog, so I'll just comment on what I was interested in. Nathan Daschle, the Executive Director, introduced the new newly elected DGA chair, Governor Jack Markell of Delaware. Daschle boasted that Markell won his 2008 primary "against all odds," and Markle emphasized that he "would not be governor with the endorsement of online organizers."

So naturally I took the opportunity to ask about primaries, pointing out that his primary not only led to his victory but gave us a great candidate for the House. Did the DGA, I asked, plan to "encourage primaries?" Well, I could hardly ask it without laughing, but Governor Markell very nicely said discussed his experiences in Delaware and said that it was the DGA's principle to let the electorate decided. He called in Daschle, who pointed to the DGA's role in Virginia this year. While the primary was being sorted out there, DGA was able to go on the attack and try to define the Republicans. He also noted that Obama was strengthened by the primary process, so perhaps the value of primaries is being appreciated more."Let the electorates decide" was also his slogan. Anyway, I just wanted to push the concept.

New Jersey's Democratic Party would really benefit from primaries. As it is, primaries are avoided at all costs, and occur only when one set of political bosses can't agree, or try to pull off a coup. Then people whine to press that they should have been the candidate, or whine that it's outrageous someone else broke a secret pact to not have a primary. You know what I'm talking about.  

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Let me be a Lover, not a Fighter

by: Jeff Gardner

Mon Nov 16, 2009 at 09:40:31 AM EST

I'd rather be doing just about anything else right now besides fighting for the freedom to marry in New Jersey. I should be relaxing on my day off. Or training for next year's marathon. Or debating Bill Belichick's 4th Down call last night. I've got Christmas shopping to start.

But, I don't have time for any of those things. Why? Because I'm still fighting for equality.

And, one of the more frustrating things about this fight is the misinformation that gets spread about the political ramifications of taking action - that somehow voting for equality could be risky. In fact, the opposite is true - voting against equality is the real risk.

Let's be clear: pro-equality incumbents are reelected at a higher rate than anti-equality incumbents.

And, if history is any guide - and the marriage battle in Massachusetts is now, mercifully, history - anti-equality Democrats from solidly Democratic districts get primaried and lose. Just ask 20-year incumbent loser Marie Parente:

Outspoken state Representative Marie Parente of Milford, one of Beacon Hill's most conservative voices for more than 20 years, was defeated yesterday in her bid for another term. She was the only incumbent legislator to lose a primary fight.
Or, ask 16-year incumbent loser Vincent Ciampa
Sciortino was first elected to the house in 2004, defeating sixteen-year incumbent Democrat Vincent Ciampa in a bitter contest. The 34th Middlesex district is heavily Democratic and the primary election [wa]s the key contest.... Ciampa, an opponent of same-sex marriage, faced Sciortino, who is openly gay.
For a long while now, primaries have been a rarity in the New Jersey Democratic party. Progressives have often looked the other way when it comes to less-progressive democratic incumbents. The theory had always been that securing democratic majorities was good enough to secure progressive results.

But, every time I read about a New Jersey Democratic legislator who is on the fence on the issue of marriage equality - a core Democratic issue which enjoys the overwhelming support of New Jersey democratic voters - it makes me wonder: Do these incumbents really want to fight?

Discuss :: (6 Comments)

Does this get you thinking about NJ's incumbents?

by: Rosi Efthim

Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 11:55:55 AM EDT

Blue Jersey Radio's excellent interview with Jeff Hauser is here.  

When Accountability Now - a new national PAC - rolled out a couple of weeks ago, there were some dustups about what its purpose was. Were founders like Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos and Jane Hamsher of Firedoglake and the high-octane groups aligning with them really going flat out after moderate electeds of their own party? That's the kind of thing some of the headlines suggested.

But Accountability Now's new Executive Director Jeff Hauser, who ran Dennis Shulman's interesting but ultimately unsuccessful challenge to Rep. Scott Garrett last year, has it clear:

He talks about watching Democrats, the new power, being showered with lobbyist attention, and the risk that incumbents of his own party might begin to toe K Street's line or succumb to D.C. groupthink, just like Republicans did. The rationale makes sense. Incumbency is a cushy advantage; reelection almost a reflexive privilege. That leaves incumbents vulnerable to losing touch with their own districts, and caving to the demands of corporate interests. The organizational support AN hopes to provide - to challengers - is designed to making it more likely that if incumbents get out of touch they'll have a serious primary challenge.  It's designed to get them looking over their shoulder and not too comfortably. Incumbents doing right by their districts, he says, have little to fear from AN.

How will AN zero in on their targets? Watershed votes on issues like economic recovery, the budget, healthcare, Employee Free Choice, energy/climate change and immigration reform will be watched. And polling will study the districts.

Hauser sat down for an on line chat with Blue Jersey yesterday. He calls the current system dysfunctional:

[snip] Unlike you or I, who are reviewed in our work constantly, members of Congress too often get a free pass.

AN wants to connect prospective candidates - viable candidates with fundraising mojo or the clear ability to attract resources - with national, people-powered movements, like MoveOn, SEIU, DailyKos, ColorOfChange.org, 21st Century Democrats and BlogPAC. And Democracy for America (DFA).

DFA Chair Jim Dean called in on Blue Jersey Radio last night, to underscore DFA's enthusiasm for the way vigorous primaries empower voters. Dean:

If this party embraces that, we're going to be around end prosper for a long time. But if it reverts to the power of incumbency we saw during the Clinton administration we're going to be out on our ass.
There's More... :: (2 Comments, 274 words in story)

Why I'm Not Voting Today

by: Thurman Hart

Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:30:14 PM EDT

I could make this a long lecture, but I'll keep it short.  The only person on the ballot that I'd actually want to cast a vote for is Steve Rothman - and he's running unopposed.

If you want to hear more, click on through.  If not; then just move along.  Nothing here to see.

There's More... :: (7 Comments, 396 words in story)

The Delegates of Florida and Michigan

by: Hopeful

Sat May 31, 2008 at 07:12:28 PM EDT

In February 2007, Jay, JRB and I went to the  2007 Winter DNC meeting, as part of the DNC's effort to make its workings more transparent to the public.  I was in the room for the meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee, and I described the meeting:  

The rules for 2008 seek to give incentives for states to schedule their primaries later in the season.  The key is that these are incentives only, so that if New Jersey moves up to February 5 we will not lose any delegates.  Since our original date was in June, we would receive a 10% bonus for remaining there.  (This is a reward for "good behavior.")  By the way, if we moved back to June from an earlier date, we would have gotten a 30% bonus.

Well, we could have had another 11 delegates if our Presidential election is next week, but that's not the point.  The rules were plain -- even an amateur (me) could understand them.  Since the minimum penalty was 1/2 the delegates, today's decision on Florida and Michigan's delegations is appropriate.  Perhaps New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina should have penalized too, but frankly as a New Jersey voter I have no interest in what order the four early votes go before us.  

Discuss :: (3 Comments)

"Histories are more full of examples of the fidelity of dogs than of friends."

by: Dvd Avins

Thu May 29, 2008 at 10:47:53 PM EDT

That was Alexander Pope. Niel Kinnock was more specific:
Loyalty is a fine quality, but in excess it fills political graveyards.
29 years ago, I got involved in a 2-year campaign, where the race for reelection one year was part of gearing up for the main event the following year.

That first year, the only difficult part was the Assembly primary, where we won resoundingly. The general election only attracted attention because we needed a big margin and a well-rehearsed organization for a congressional primary the following year.

Part of the attention we attracted was help from the head of a small but quite active town Young Democratic club. He wasn't even old enough to vote and his town was in a completely different part of the county from the legislative district. But he was tall, handsome, personable, and the son of a councilman, and his presence was both useful to us and raised his own profile (as well as a few eyebrows) in the county as a whole.

The next Spring, he signed on to the congressional campaign, which we weren't at all sure he would do. And with his town inside the congressional district, he and his Young Democrat crew became most of our field operation in his town.

Until one day, when they were partway through a multi-day lit drop for us, I got a call from the one ideologically motivated young volunteer we had in that town. He alerted me that the local Young Democrats were out distributing literature for the opposing candidate. As he later explained to me (we worked together for several years afterward) our personable Young leader had figured out that we were probably going to lose, and in any case, there were many more people on the other side that it was to his advantage to work with.


Our son of a councilman is now one of the few dozen most powerful people in the state. I wouldn't bet against him being governor some day. He's one of the most prominent people outside of South Jersey to have taken on a role in the Andrews campaign, raising his own profile at the same time as he lends the Andrews campaign added credibility.

But I can't help but wonder, if Andrews truly is looking at another state-wide run next year, how likely he thinks the ongoing support of my old friend is. And I wonder what my old friend thinks about that, too.

At least they all play from the same playbook. Some may live by and expect from others a degree of loyalty to others or to one's own word that makes one's behavior rather predictable. The manner of Andrews' entry into the race clearly places him outside such naive circles. So here's to Neal Kinnock and an interesting 2009.

Discuss :: (6 Comments)

What is the Effect of Contested Primaries

by: Thurman Hart

Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 09:21:47 PM EDT

Prompted by Jeff's comment about primaries, I took it upon myself to do a bit of actual research.  There has been precious little actual research on the effects primaries can have on general elections.  To kind of demonstrate this, the majority of articles published in the Political Science field that deal with primaries compare them to closed state convention systems.  Several studies also look at the effects of caucuses versus primaries, but we'll discuss that another day.

The most directly relevant article was Andrew Hacker's "Does a Divisive Primary Harm a Candidate's Election Chances" (see?  I went to college.  I can figure these things out).  That was published in 1965.  I'll get to the results after the fold, but let's just deal with some problems in modeling really quickly.

No one has used New Jersey's statewide races as a case study for exploring this issue.  Thus, direct applicability is lacking.  Second, no one has really looked at this in a while.  Many things have changed since 1965, and electioneering is one of those things. Third, each type of race has its own dynamics - a Presidential race is very different from a Senate race and both are different still from a House race or a Governor's race.  Finally, there is always some degree of speculation with these things - we political science types have not yet been able to get elections run repeatedly under the same circumstance.  

There's More... :: (7 Comments, 1183 words in story)

Primary Predictions!

by: Jeff Gardner

Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 02:38:45 PM EST

1. I predict that if Barack Obama is our nominee, that Chairman Joe Cryan will become a tireless advocate for Obama in New Jersey.

2. I predict that if Hillary Clinton is our nominee, that Loretta Weinberg will become a tireless advocate for Clinton in New Jersey.

3. I predict record turnout for a democratic primary in NJ.

I can make the first two predictions with confidence because I know that good people can strenuously disagree about their choice of who should be our party's nominee, while remaining steadfast in their commitment to winning the Whitehouse.

I can make the third prediction because I know that open primaries are a vital part of democracy, and do more to strengthen a party by engaging its members to chart the party's direction, than anything primary naysayers can throw up as reasons not to welcome them.

Note the term "open" primaries. That's not what we are accustomed to here. Our system in New Jersey has long discouraged candidates from "challenging" the establishment choice (often, the choice solely of the County Chair or unelected "Executive Committee"), or stacked the odds so prohibitively in favor of that establishment choice as to make such a challenge a fool's errand.

I hope it's not lost in the takeaway from tomorrow's primary how incredible the power of a contested primary can be to get people energized, engaged, and involved. All it takes is (1) a political culture that accepts primaries; (2) a ballot that is not rigged in favor of one candidate over others; and (3) democrats who stand together behind the nominee that emerges.

I've thought this for a long time, but this year's presidential primary is proving the point. I predict if we insist on these 3 simple steps, we will end up with a government more accountable to the electorate, more leaders beholden to voters rather than special interests, and an inspired, unbeatable democratic party.

Discuss :: (4 Comments)

Opening the Party to All

by: Time2Lead

Mon Nov 26, 2007 at 04:27:25 PM EST

( - promoted by SJBrian)

What is the nominating process like in your county? Let's have a conversation. -promoted by SJBrian

The Legislature has the highest number of women legislators in history. Many have pointed to the role that indictments and resignations due to corruption have played. In Mercer, the Freeholder Board has 3 out of 7 women holding office and a number of female Legislators. In addition, those indictments have not touched Mercer Democrats. How? The Democratic Chair, Rich McClellan, credits an open convention system.

There's More... :: (11 Comments, 285 words in story)

Hot news from the political ball game in WA

by: DottieG

Thu Aug 23, 2007 at 09:08:20 PM EDT

Just got this in from Progressive Majority about primary results in Washington State.  It proves our point about the 50-state strategy nationally and NJ's 21-county strategy.

Here's the Progressive Majority's report:

In Washington state's Tuesday's primary election, 11 of our 27 candidates faced primaries, many of them stiff challenges.

As of this morning, 10 of our 11 candidates have won their primaries and moved on to the general election this November.

Snohomish County: A New Progressive Majority.
The most important race in the primary was for Snohomish County Council, where Brian Sullivan won the Democratic nomination against a long-time elected official. As his district is strongly Democratic, he faces only token conservative opposition in the general election. Sullivan replaces a conservative Democrat and changes the balance of power on the council from conservatives to progressives!

We have been working on the Snohomish County Council since we opened our doors in Washington in 2004 when the council had a 4-1 conservative majority. In 2005, we helped Dave Somers get elected. Now this fall we have one other Snohomish County Council race. If our candidate Mike Cooper wins in November, we will have a 4-1 progressive majority! Now, that's PROGRESS!

Big Upset in Port of Seattle, but the battle isn't over yet.  Progressive Majority candidate Gael Tarleton led incumbent Seattle Port Commissioner Bob Edwards. In fact, Edwards is at a lowly 28%!!!! The progressive community has been fighting for a majority on the port for years; this year we have our best chance in years to win. It's time for change, and Gael is ready to deliver that change!

Here is a complete list of results from the Washington State primary. As Washington is a vote-by-mail state, the numbers can change, but we're confident in our predications:

County Offices

John Lovick - Snohomish County Sherriff
Won! Faces a tough general election.

Brian Sullivan - Snohomish County Council, District 2
Won! Faces token opposition in the general.

Bob Kelly - Whatcom County Council, District 1, Position B
Won! Currently leading other candidates 2:1.

City Offices:

Dan McShane - Bellingham Mayor
Won! The leading vote-getter over 6 primary opponents.

Maureen Judge - Mercer Island City Council, Position 3. Won! The leading vote getter over 3 primary opponents.

Terry Scott - Shoreline City Council, Position 6. Won! While the election results are close, he will advance to the general election and held an incumbent to 35%!

Marilyn Strickland - Tacoma City Council, At Large, Won! The leading vote-getter in a four-way primary.

De'Sean Quinn - Tukwila City Council, Position 2. Lost in a three-way primary.

Ron Bonlender - Yakima City Council, District 3. Won! Bonlender will face strong opposition this fall.

Seattle Port Commission:

Alec Fisken - Position 5. Won! Alec will face a very strong race this fall against a very well-funded opponent.

Gael Tarleton - Position 2. Won! Leading a 6-way primary over an 8-year incumbent.

Discuss :: (2 Comments)

News Roundup and Open Thread for Wednesday, June 6, 2007

by: Hopeful

Wed Jun 06, 2007 at 09:23:10 AM EDT

  • There has to be turnover somehow in the state legislature.  Incumbents Wilfredo Caraballo (LD29), Sal Vega (LD33), and Louis Manzo (LD31)were defeated in their primaries yesterday, and Craig Stanley and Oadline Truitt (LD28) were trailing in close races.  [Update:  Guy Gregg (LD24) also lost his Republican primary.]

    Oddly enough, no one in the Washington Post denounced the outcome of the primaries, and none of the defeated candidates joined the Connecticut for Joe Lieberman party.

  • After the last crack, I should mention Upper Freehold, where the incumbent Republican mayor and a Democrat (who may or may not be his running mate) filed to run as independents yesterday, instead of facing a primary challenge.  No Democrats filed for November on the party line.

  • Also, a total of 44 people filed to run as independents in the fall legislative elections, including "NJ Weedman."  In another odd move, Craig Stanley filed to run for LD28 Senate, but won the primary to be re-elected for LD28 Assembly.

  • In a stunning upset, James Murray ousted John Ingelsino for Morris County Freeholder.  See Mr. Liberal's analysis.

  • Front page posts and diaries here analyze outcomes for the Real Bergen Democrats, Hudson County, Garden State Equality, and more Real Bergen Democrats.

  • A Democrat's petition in Freehold Township was ruled invalid and therefore he will not be on the November ballot.  If you ever decide to run, remember the lesson that you should be registered to vote(!) and have your petition signed by members of your own party.

  • The Fort Dix subjects were indicted yesterday, five for planning to kill U.S. military personnel and the sixth for helping illegal immigrants get guns. 

  • There will be an FAA hearing on airplane noise in Cherry Hill on June 27.  Democratic Congressmen Rob Andrews and Joe Sestak got the review.

  • A student who was strip-searched during a trip to Disney World plans to sue the school district.

  • That middle school is Paramus is still contaminated with pesticides

  • Atlantic County Freeholders expressed their opposition to selling the toll roads.

  • Steve Gilliard's obituary appeared today in the New York Times.  As Scott Shields wrote about Gilliard in Quick Hits:

    Outside of Blue Jersey, Steve Gilliard was the Menendez campaign's strongest netroots ally in 2006.

  • Finally!  Carla Katz talks to the New York Post.  It's a mix of gossip and politics.

    This is an open thread, so let us know what you think!

  • Discuss :: (8 Comments)

    In bitterly contested primaries, 13 of 15 Garden State Equality-endorsed candidates win

    by: Steven Goldstein, Garden State Equality chair

    Wed Jun 06, 2007 at 12:37:12 AM EDT

    GARDEN STATE EQUALITY PLAYS HIGH-STAKES POLITICS AND WINS BIG

    How Garden State Equality's endorsed candidates did: 

    District 31 (Hudson County)
    Sandra Bolden Cunningham for Senate - WINS
    L. Harvey Smith for Assembly - WINS 
    Nicholas Chiaravalloti - LOSES

    District 32 (Hudson County)
    Joan Quigley for Assembly - WINS 
    Vincent Prieto for Assembly - WINS 

    District 33 (Hudson County)
    Brian Stack for Senate - WINS 
    Ruben Ramos for Assembly - WINS
    Carrie Rodriguez for Assembly - WINS 

    District 28 (Essex County)
    Cleo Tucker for Assembly - WINS

    District 29 (Essex County)
    Teresa Ruiz for Senate - WINS
    L. Grace Spencer for Assembly - WINS
    Wilfredo Caraballo - LOSES 

    District 37 (Bergen County)
    Loretta Weinberg for Senate - WINS
    Valerie Vainieri Huttle for Assembly - WINS
    Gordon Johnson for Assembly - WINS
    [In this closely fought primary, their opponents dropped out before tonight.]

    "As tonight's results show, ending discrimination in marriage is not only the correct position to advocate," said Steven Goldstein, chair of Garden State Equality, "but it's also the politically beneficial position in our progressive state.  Never in the history of New Jersey has advocacy for LGBT rights ever been a political liability, and that certainly holds true tonight." 

    Garden State Equality, along with the New Jersey Stonewall Democrats and the Hudson Diversity Action Council, were united in their endorsements of tonight's pro-marriage equality victors.  In the Hudson County races, Garden State Equality congratulates the Hudson Diversity Action Council for its tremendous grassroots work. 

    In the most closely fought Democratic primary in the state today, Sandy Cunningham defeated Assemblyman Lou Manzo for state Senate in the 31st district in Hudson County. 

    "When candidates stand by us, we're as loyal as any community in the state," said Barbra Casbar Siperstein, president of New Jersey Stonewall Democrats.  "When they turn their backs on equality, they're going to pay the price." 

    In the 33rd legislative district in Hudson County, the insurgent team headed by Brian Stack for Senate, and Carrie Rodriguez and Ruben Ramos for Assembly, beat the legendary Hudson County Democratic Organization in an overwhelming victory.  All had the strong support of Garden State Equality, Hudson Diversity Action Council and New Jersey Stonewall Democrats. 

    In Essex County, Cleo Tucker won her Assembly race in the 28th district, and Teresa Ruiz and L. Grace Spencer won for Senate and Assembly respectively in the 29th district.  They had the endorsements of Garden State Equality and New Jersey Stonewall Democrats. 

    The biggest loss of the night for civil rights supporters, including the LGBTI community, was that of Assembly Speaker Pro Tem Wilfredo Caraballo.  After a dispute with local Democratic leaders, he ran alone, not on any ticket, and had an extraordinarily uphill battle. 

    "Our love for Fred Caraballo is profound.  He's been one of the most brilliant, compassionate and effective civil rights champions in all America," said Steven Goldstein, chair of Garden State Equality.  "He has given his life to help the disinherited, disenchanted and dispossessed.  He's too talented and too wonderful a man not to have another chapter in his public service career, and we are excited to work with him in whatever capacity in the years ahead."

    In Bergen County, Senator Loretta Weinberg, a hero to the LGBTI community who has sponsored every major LGBTI civil rights law in her 15 years in the legislature, won, as did her equally terrific running mates, Assemblywoman Valerie Vainieri Huttle and Assemblyman Gordon Johnson.  Just a few weeks ago, their primary looked like it would be the hottest primary of the year.

    But in a grassroots victory for labor and progressive organizations, Loretta, Valerie and Gordon's opponents dropped out in April.

     

    Discuss :: (4 Comments)

    Upset City in Morris County Freeholder Race

    by: Stephen Yellin

    Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 10:53:33 PM EDT

    ( - promoted by njdem)

    I'll keep this brief, because I'm tired and want to go to bed, but I thought this would be of interest.

    In Morris County, the GOP had its open primary for Freeholder. An elderly frequent candidate, James "Jim" Murray decided to run, and was initially kicked off the ballot by County GOP boss John Sette. Murray was successful in getting back on the ballot, however. Now, he has his revenge. With 97% of the vote in, he's ousted Freeholder John Inglesino from his seat! Results in the extended entry...

    There's More... :: (1 Comments, 129 words in story)
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