What happened in the Fifth?

by: Blue Jersey

Tue Nov 11, 2008 at 02:43:46 PM EST

And with this, we started to wonder how a race that, by many accounts, was potentially a tossup, ended up a 14% rout.

While trying to analyze the results, the campaigns that both Shulman and Garrett ran - including the late-in-the-game influx of disgraceful ads paid for by the NRCC and the results of past races, we came up with more questions than answers. The biggest and first question is whether this district is even remotely winnable by a Democrat.  We say this not as fatalists, but as people who have realized the value that building up a sustainable infrastructure can bring, as people who know how very different each county is within the district and as people who can sense some very basic flaws in what little infrastructure has been built up in the district.  On a more fundamental level, we wonder if the Fifth has earned the respect to receive an earlier endorsement as a "Red to Blue" district or earlier financial support from the DCCC - both of which could have certainly helped, but the distinction and funds may have also been better served in more winnable races earlier in the cycle.

Before looking at the vote breakdown, and trying to see where things could have changed in this cycle, it is fairly evident that the district will be extremely tough to win in one cycle - especially if we don't start to build up critical infrastructure now.  In Bergen County, the BCDO is a mess, to say the least, with Ferriero in, shall we say, "hot water," and no indication as to if or when he will step down from his Chairmanship.  With this matter still in limbo, it would be very difficult for a Democrat to run on a "clean government" platform and be taken seriously enough to flip a 53/47 deficit to a 52/48 win in the county.  It isn't an accident that there was such a disappointment that even the top Democratic Freeholders saw a near 20% dropoff in her votes from Obama, as noted today in the Bergen Record.

How Linda Stender Lost

by: Blue Jersey

Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 11:23:23 AM EST

This has been a four year effort for many of us, starting before Linda even decided to run in 2006.  It is hard for some of us because we know Linda personally and like her very much, and worked so hard and invested so much in getting her to the finish line.

In 2006 we came within 1.5 percent of the vote against a three term Republican named Mike Ferguson.  It was a stunningly unexpected effort that shocked the national party which gave secondary support to the campaign while dumping millions in others where the margin was seven points or more.

In 2008 Linda lost by a little less than nine percent, a stunning defeat in a race where we saw polls putting Stender even or just behind State Senator Leonard Lance in the days before the election.  It was made all the more stunning in that 2008 was a better year for Democrats than 2006, yet the Stender campaign fell far behinds its previous result.

How could that happen?  Lance didn't run a great campaign.  Stender had lots more money.  The DCCC dropped over a million dollars into the district, while the NRCC walked away and focused on NJ3.  Registration for Democrats jumped dramatically.  And then there was that guy running for President who brought Democratic turnout to amazing levels.  The environment couldn't have been better.

But she lost anyway.

Because, as near as we can tell, they forgot all the lessons of 2006 that got them close.  Instead of building on the energy and volunteers from the previous election they brought in an entirely new team from outside the district, ignored the organizations like Democracy for America that supported Stender in 2006, and blew off local expertise in favor of a cookie-cutter campaign.