Quote of the Day: Objects in Mirror May Be Closer than they Appear Edition

by: Rosi Efthim

Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 10:02:29 AM EDT

"Christopher Christie is still ahead in the Garden State, but when he looks in the rear- view mirror, he sees the bearded visage of Gov. Jon Corzine getting closer," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Although ... we'd add, it's obvious that Christie doesn't look in the rearview mirror.

Or the sideview mirror, the windshield, speed limit signs or one way signs.

Quote of the Day: People are happy to tax other people

by: Jason Springer

Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:12:39 PM EDT

Sixty-four percent of voters said it was a good idea to raise taxes on wine and liquor, and 55 percent said they support Corzine's plan to scale back the property tax deduction on the state income tax. Fifty-two percent also said they support a wage freeze and unpaid leaves for state workers.

In an April 7 PublicMind poll, 72 percent said they would rather curb spending than raise taxes.

"I expected more backlash and I expected less support" for raising taxes, said Peter Woolley, director of PublicMind. "It goes to show you that people are happy to tax other people."

An Open Letter to Steve Sweeney & Dick Codey from Blue Jersey ... and the voters

by: Blue Jersey

Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 12:11:42 PM EST

Were some legislators justified in the political fears that led them to support civil unions over true equality? No.

A new poll, commissioned by Gannett (the news org that operates the APP, the Home News Tribune, the Courier Post, and other papers) shows that New Jersey voters support marriage equality 50%-40%.

Now, we've heard excuses from policymakers before: that, trust us, civil unions will actually work and provide equality (two state government reports, here and here reveal otherwise). When Garden State Equality released a poll showing New Jersey supported marriage equality 50%-42%, gaining six new cosponsors for marriage equality in one fell swoop, some said the GSE poll was biased and couldn't be trusted. We were told we can't debate this hot-button issue during a presidential election year.  And we were put off again when the recession hit, that the economy is our prime focus, even though an academic study shows marriage equality could bring a quarter of a billion dollars in consumer spending to pump up New Jersey's economy.

Every time, there's been an excuse from legislators too politically afraid to stand up for what's right. But that's all they are: excuses. There are no excuses anymore. Gannett has no axe to grind here, no political agenda. And it is straight-up reporting that the voters of New Jersey respond favorably to marriage equality, based on credible and unbiased polling. If the poll is at all biased (which we doubt, as Monmouth University is a renowned, fair NJ pollster), it likely skews to the right. The numbers remain. A strong majority of New Jerseyans support marriage equality.

So, we're paging Steve Sweeney, Dick Codey, Diane Allen, and other members of the New Jersey State Senate who have appeared lukewarm or quiet on the issue of marriage equality. Senators, you have no more room for excuses. Fundamentally, you either support full equality or you don't; you must either stand up for what's right or cave in to baseless political fear and timidity. New Jerseys same-sex families have suffered because of civil unions; that's not in doubt. You can either recognize that suffering and fix it by enacting marriage equality this year, or you can turn a blind eye.

The truth is, there are no half-assed attempts at equality. It's time for members of the New Jersey Senate to stand up and be counted, and it's time for members of the Blue Jersey community to turn up the heat and call these wavering senators today.

Senators, the voters would like to hear from you.  

Peeking beneath the numbers

by: Thurman Hart

Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 11:14:34 AM EDT

The poll also has some encouraging news - if the Stender campaign knows how to capitalize on it.  For instance, among likely voters, Obama leads McCain by a single point(47-46), with 7% undecided.  If nothing else, that shows that a Democrat can win the district.  The problem is that Lance loses only 4% of those likely voters, while Stender loses 8%, with 14% undecided.  

The problem for Stender, then, is that she needs to give Obama voters a reason to stick with the Democratic line.  This will be helped somewhat by having Frank Lautenberg - though his near-absent campaign doesn't help the coattails flow nearly as long as they would if he actually, you know, ran a campaign or something.  But Dick Zimmer has the attraction of a big ball of poop in a bowl of rice.  If you like that sort of thing, it's yummy - but most people are not going to go out of their way to swallow it.

More analysis after the jump.

What's with the polls?

by: Thurman Hart

Wed Sep 17, 2008 at 09:47:55 AM EDT

Take a look at the following chart where I compare September polling at Q-pac to actual results:

Year	Leader	Margin	Undecided	Final Margin
2008	Obama	3	6	???
2006	Kean	3	6	8
2005	Corzine	4	8	9
2004	Kerry	4	6	7
2002	Torricelli	4	14	10

If you notice, there's a pretty consistent pattern - at this point, the leader averages roughly 3.5 points ahead with an average of 7 points worth of undecided voters (I'm going to ignore Torricelli's 14 point undecideds as an outlier).  The only thing we have to note is that in 2006, Tom Kean, Jr actually turned a three point lead into an eight point deficit.  Wow.  That is quite the accomplishment.

Out of your PublicMind

by: Thurman Hart

Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 01:35:07 PM EDT

As of August 13, McCain was trailing by ten points in New Jersey - and new voters are always under represented in polling.  By way of comparison, Tom Kean, Jr was slightly ahead of Sen. Robert Menendez around this time in 2006.  Forrester was down by only four points in 2005.  And Forrester was actually four points ahead of Robert Torricelli in 2002.

If you want to read more about this, make the jump.

Peeking behind the Qpac Numbers

by: Thurman Hart

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 08:46:28 AM EDT

Among registered voters, Lautenberg leads Zimmer by eight - down one point from two months ago.  Lautenberg's support dropped two points - which is far from significant, but interesting only because it is twice the decline in support that Zimmer saw.  Registered voters were most likely to be moving to the "Don't Know" column than anything else.

In the smaller realm of "likely voters", Lautenberg's lead holds at seven points, 48 to 41.  It's purely a numbers game here.  Lautenberg has support of 78 percent of Democrats and Zimmer has support of 80 percent of Republicans.  Zimmer even leads among Indies - 44 to 42.  But builk numbers lean towards the Dems, so FRL picks up a return to DC.

Qpac: Too much familiarity leads to discontent

by: Thurman Hart

Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 02:05:09 PM EDT

If the election were held today, Frank Lautenberg would win 47-38 over Dick Zimmer - and I think that margin may even increase in the next five months.  Right now, Zimmer is basically unknown, with sixty-seven percent of respondents saying they don't know enough about him to have an opinion.  That includes fifty-six percent of Republicans, who just picked this guy in their primary. Even more amazing is that twenty-six percent of the electorate doesn't know enough about Jon Corzine to have an opinion - including twenty-nine percent of Democrats.

The good news for Jon Corzine is that only eleven percent of people don't know if they like him or not.  It's all bad news from there, though.

Obama takes the lead

by: Thurman Hart

Mon Jun 09, 2008 at 06:12:55 PM EDT

The report continues:

The new survey -- conducted 24 hours after Obama achieved the number of delegates necessary for the nomination -- found McCain being backed by 83% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats pledged themselves to Obama.

The big surprise is found down at the bottom:

Just 23% of New Jersey voters say President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty-two percent (52%) say he's doing a poor job.

Seriously - who are these people that think Bush is great and what does he have to do to change their minds?  I recently heard a political operative say, "Your base are the people who stay with you when you are wrong."  I really don't understand that - because if someone is wrong, I'm going to be one of the first saying so - but it would seem that there should be some limit to what people can call "excellent".  Isn't there?

Standing on the wrong side of history

by: Juan Melli

Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 04:37:15 PM EST

But with poll after poll showing that New Jersey residents are not ready to accept gay marriage, it would be more destructive to that movement were it to attempt to force the issue at this time.

If we had waited until polls showed overwhelming numbers before enacting civil rights laws, our country would probably be a very different place today.

In 1948, Harry Truman proposed civil rights legislation to desegregate the military, make lynching a federal crime, and end the use of poll taxes to disenfranchise poor blacks. A March 1948 Gallup poll found "deep ambivalence" among the 63% who had heard of the program. "A third (33%) said the whole program should be passed, while 31% said it should not, and 34% would not offer an opinion on the matter."

Truman faced opposition at election time even from within his own party.

This provoked a firestorm of criticism from Southern Democrats in the time leading up to the national nominating convention, but Truman refused to compromise, saying "My forbears were Confederates... But my very stomach turned over when I learned that Negro soldiers, just back from overseas, were being dumped out of army trucks in Mississippi and beaten."

That's quite a contrast to the timidity of some of our candidates (and their supporters) today who are paralyzed by fear of doing anything brave during election season.

The public was also timid during the civil rights era. In a June, 1961 Gallup poll [The Gallup Poll: Public Opinion, page 237] where respondents were asked if integration "should be brought about gradually" or if "every means should be used to bring it about in the near future", 61% said gradually while only 23% said it should happen soon.

The echoes of the past still haunt us today. Our 'progressive' governor thinks we should drag our feet a bit more before providing equality. "It's my own view that that's where our society is at this moment in time," he says.

The proposed Civil Rights Act also did not have overwhelming popular support. A June 1963 Gallup poll identified a "mixed reaction to the idea of racial equality in public places, with a slight plurality (49%) in favor, compared to 42% opposed."

It wasn't until after the legislation passed that support grew significantly. In two polls conducted in September and October of 1964, the public approved of the legislation by 2-1, about 60% to 30%.

Most recent polling in New Jersey (see table below) shows either a plurality or majority support for extending marriage rights to same-sex couples.

We don't need to wait for utopian poll numbers before acting. Because the challenge we're facing today isn't harder than any past battle for equality. We need brave leaders who understand the promise of America. And we need those too timid to join the fight to step aside, or risk standing on the wrong side of history.

New Jersey Polls: marriage for same-sex couples

		Favor	Oppose
Rutgers-Eagleton	9/03	43%	50%
Zogby International	5/05	55%	40%
Zogby International	2/06	56%	39%
Rutgers-Eagleton	6/06	50%	44%
Quinnipiac	11/06	41%	50%
Quinnipiac	12/06	44%	50%
Zogby International	9/07	48%	45%
Rutgers-Eagleton	10/07	48%	45%

Monmouth Univ Poll: Clinton leads by 14%

by: Juan Melli

Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 12:24:48 AM EST

Contrary to other polls, this one shows Clinton widening her lead over Obama compared to the previous Monmouth poll which had Clinton ahead by 12 points on January 13th (42% - 30%).

It may be possible that the earlier Monmouth poll was off, since other polls conducted that same week had Clinton ahead by 18% (Rasmussen, 1/15) and 25% (Research 2000, 1/10).

Love/Hate in New Jersey

by: Thurman Hart

Tue Jan 22, 2008 at 09:32:48 PM EST

New Jersey voters chose Senator Hillary Clinton as the candidate they?d be the most likely and most unlikely to support in the general election, according to a new study from Fairleigh Dickinson University?s PublicMind. In a survey conducted from January 14 through January 20, likely primary voters, regardless of party affiliation, were asked who among the field of candidates they are most likely and most unlikely to support for president. Clinton tops both lists with 25 and 27 percent, respectively.

Wow.  It would seem that for every person who really wants to vote for Hillary there is someone waiting to vote for ANYONE else.  What a great candidate!  Jump with me for more insights.

Two New Senate Polls

by: Juan Melli

Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 12:54:23 AM EDT

LA Times: Bob Menendez: 45, Kean Jr: 41.

Mason Dixon: Menendez: 45, Kean Jr: 42.

Memo to Campaigns

by: Juan Melli

Wed Aug 30, 2006 at 08:28:31 AM EDT

National issues seem to be having a substantial impact on New Jerseyans' votes in Congressional races as well. Overall, 38% of voters say they intend to vote for the Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives and 28% intend to vote for the Republican candidate in their local House election. However, among those voters who were asked about Bush and Iraq before questions about the Congress, Democratic candidates have an 18 point advantage, 41 to 23. For those who were not asked questions about national issues first, Democratic House candidates led by only two points, 35 to 33 percent.

Return from the AAPOR Conference

by: dfa_lewis

Mon May 22, 2006 at 07:16:18 PM EDT

Damned Lies and Statistics

by: Thurman Hart

Mon Apr 24, 2006 at 06:33:54 PM EDT

It's screwed.

It's too easy to run a poll and too easy to run a bad one that tells you nothing. 

Here are the results of the three lates polls on the NJ Senate race:

Poll	Kean	Menendez
Public Mind	42	38
Rasumssen	43	35
Strategic Vision	34	32

So which one do you believe?

Why Johnnie Can't Poll

by: Thurman Hart

Thu Feb 09, 2006 at 09:47:29 AM EST

Sometimes, it's the psychology of the questions.  Sometimes, it's just that the questions don't tell you anything useful.