What a happy day for New Jersey political junkies: We got releases of both the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Press Media Poll PDF, plus or minus 3.5 percent) and the Quinnipiac poll (plus or minus 2.7 percent.) They agree quite well.
It's a pretty good day for Governor Christie too, with favorable-unfavorable job ratings of of 49-41 (Monmouth), or 52-40 (Quinnipiac.) amongst New Jersey registered voters. That's great agreement. You may have seen a Republican "internal poll" being touted recently; as usual, it was about 7 points more favorable to those releasing it than a neutral party. In Quinnipac, 51% say Christie's first year is mainly a success and only 35% say mainly a failure; In Monmouth, they find 25% think he has "major accomplishments", 39% "minor accomplishments," and 34% say "no real accomplishments." Same thing, different phrasing.
We can have some fun looking at the results of a statewide poll of New Jersey by Public Policy Polling. Along with approval ratings for the major figures, they provide head-to-head numbers for future races. There are 520 "New Jersey voters" for an estimated margin of error of 4.3%.
Those numbers are actually misleadingly good for Christie though. 21% of Democrats are undecided in such a match up while only 7% of Republicans are. That's probably a reflection of 38% of voters in the state still not having an opinion about Booker.
Uh-oh. Bad numbers for the re-match. On the other hand, PPP observes that 51% of voters don't know who Kean is. I'll go further and suggest that if so many don't know who he is, some must think Kean Jr. is his popular father -- even though I wouldn't have guessed it.
Obama may be weak at the moment but it seems that even a local Republican would get crushed. Gingrich, Huckabee, and Romney all do about the same as Christie.
To the degree you take such early polls seriously, we can conclude that New Jersey's 14 electoral votes will go to Obama without a battle, Menendez might be vulnerable, and Christie can be defeated.
Peter Woolley, political scientist and director of the Fairleigh Dickenson U. Public Mind Poll calls the poll numbers he released today on Senator Bob Menendez "anemic" for "an energetic guy who has already served 5 years."
Menendez, who is coming off of a stint chairing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), where his party lost a handful of seats but retained control, has now identified himself in voters' minds as a key party man. Will his out-front DSCC role (which he doesn't want to continue in, and Harry Reid is having trouble filling with someone else) hurt him if the country swings rightward? Will the country swing rightward?
31% of his own NJ constituency have a favorable opinion of him.
25% unfavorable.
44% are either unsure (29%) or haven't heard of him (15%).
Among Democrats, 17% say they don't recognize his name. Another 26% are unsure/no opinion, 10% unfavorable, but 47% favorable. Is it enough in a state where Tea Party people vow they'll take their (almost certainly losing) campaign to the Supreme Court to be allowed an effort to recall him?
The results of a Fairleigh Dickinson-PublicMind Poll of New Jersey voters suggests that the number of people who approve of Governor Christie's behavior is greater than the number of people who disapprove. The poll also suggested that the number of people with an favorable opinion of the New Jersey Education Association is just 40% of voters (the percentage of negative opinions is about the same, with nearly 10% undecided)
But who is being polled? (Most likely old people)
The inherent problem with most of these polls is that most, if not all of the calls, go to people with those old fashioned land lines, who tend to be older, more set in their ways, and more conservative. Younger, and more active, people all have mobile phones. Ask most 20 and 30 somethings and the last time they had a mobile phone was when they lived with their parents.
When I first moved to the Garden State I was told that in order to register to vote, have a library card, and register for the Nutley School System a local (Nutley) number was required. Doesn't the title deed, driver's license, water bill, tax bill, utility bill etc prove residency? Apparently not. I was told by the Board of Education that if my mobile phone was a NJ number they might accomodate me, but why would I give up the phone numbers I have had for 12 years? My California numbers were MY NUMBERS. The library was accomodating to get a first card but I could not get it renewed after a year (so they lost me as a patron and donor).
My personal stories of frustration in the townships is not about the sillyness of Nutley, but rather about the generational misgivings about technology. I was shut out of participating in the community simply because I did not want to submit to early 20th Century technology and instead chose to remain the very model of a modern major gentleman. With the exception of the library, I won.
But here is where I become a symbol of the problem with polling and the political process. Having only mobile phones, chances are I will not receive any poll calls, and most likely others who are younger and mobile, will not get them either. So the most of these polls have an inherent flaw - the sample is highly targeted toward one mindset.
There is a silver lining, at least for residents of New Jersey. Governor Christie is such a popularity whore that he believes that everyone adores him and to hell with everyone else. As his cuts to programs for veterans, the disabled, the mentally retarded, and schools take hold no amount of flawed polling will hide the fact that the emperor has no clothes.
Congressman Rush Holt has slightly widened his lead in the race for New Jersey's 12th Congressional District, according to the Monmouth University Poll. The incumbent Democrat garners support from 51% of likely voters in the district, which is identical to his support level from two weeks ago. However, Republican Scott Sipprelle's support has slipped by 3 points to 43% in the current poll...
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone with 1042 likely voters from October 25 to 27, 2010. This sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percent.
51% is enough to win but not enough to take anything for granted. Volunteer this week to help our best Representative.
The Cook Report has shifted NJ-6 from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat, as Frank Pallone's lead on Tea Party approved Republican Anna Little dropped from 12 points to 7 with a week to go.
Now comes Chris Christie hard-charging for Pallone, calling him "the sponsor of Obamacare". Obamacare being pure dogwhistle pitched to get people who may be without health care coverage themselves to agitate against what may be their own best interests. Yet another signal that Chris Christie's take on New Jersey is temporary.
With this ad, Christie allies himself with the shriekers, screamers and name-callers of last summer's Town Halls on health care reform. With this ad, he chooses a Tea Party candidate to pump, defusing some of the lingering resentment from the uber-right that Christie isn't 'conservative' enough, that Steve Lonegan was better.
Most importantly, Christie becomes a huckster for the national stink bomb that is the far-right's gross distortion of health care reform; not that it's problematic because it doesn't go far enough or fast enough, but for them that it dares to tie any responsibility or requirement at all to insurance companies making vast sums. Worse, with New Jersey having the 9th-largest number of uninsured people in America, quite a few of those 1.2 million living in Middlesex, Monmouth, Somerset & Union counties that comprise NJ's 6th congressional district, we now have a Governor huckstering for the right-wing on their national issues - not his state issues - flying around the country doing favors for Republicans he can collect on later, and screwing up just about everything at home. Good plan!
We are out today with our third and final poll of the NJ third congressional district race between Democratic incumbent John Adler and Republican challenger Jon Runyan. Oh, and don't forget purported "Tea Party" candidate Peter DeStefano. The upshot? It's tied. All locked up. 44-44. No space between the two candidates. At least among those we believe to be likely voters. And DeStefano - his 4-5 percent could be making the difference.
Professor Redlawsk discussess the cell phone issue (Rutgers polls land lines only), party unity (Democrats more united), donkeys (even Republicans bothered by their use as a tax dodge), the enthusiasm gap (helps Runyan), desire for an outsider (that would be Runyan) and DeStefano (helping Adler at 5%, but also provoking a backlash.)
Obviously the combination of two small Runyan leads and an exact tie is still a narrow Runyan lead, but it looks too close to call. Redlawsk suggests the key to Democratic victory is turnout of registered Democrats. That's why we see President Obama pushing supporters to volunteer to contact voters. You can even do it online.
The lead has switched in the race for New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll. Republican challenger Jon Runyan now leads Democratic incumbent John Adler by 48% to 43% among likely voters in this district. In a poll released on September 30, Adler held a nominal 42% to 39% edge.
Runyan has a sizable 50% to 37% advantage among independents. Last month, Adler had a 43% to 32% edge with this voting bloc. Runyan has also widened his lead in the Ocean County portion of the district to 54% to 37%, and nearly evened the playing field in Burlington County and Cherry Hill - trailing Adler there by just 3 points, 44% to 47%.
This one is 1037 likely voters from October 22 to 25, 2010. Runyan has had a terrible campaign in which every reporter he encountered came away thinking he's too ignorant to be in Congress. But it looks like he's going to be carried in by the wave as Adler's small lead has become a deficit. Well, we've discussed Adler's behavior before and if I got to pick one guy to lose, it'd be him, but Democrats are facing a disaster nationwide.
Rob Andrews (D) leads Dale Glading (R) 63.4% to 21.9%.
Frank LoBiondo (R) leads Gary Stein (D) 57.3% to 20.0%
Note that there are demographic numbers (party, age, race, education) included in the PDFs and you can see the district-level favoriability of the Representatives, President Obama and Governor Christie. Obama is over 50% (if barely) in all three districts. "Christie's decision to promote Atlantic City" does well in all districts but best in NJ2, which (gasp) includes Atlantic City. In other results, I trust no one is surprised that voters think "jobs and economy" is the top issue.
Now for the big race: Adler (37.1%) trails Runyan (40.3%), the first time I have seen that result. These seem like low percentages so late in the election, but note the 4.1% margin of error is larger than the difference. Runyan is at 48% favorable so any Adler attack ads have not been effective enough. Zogby says more Republicans than Democrats will vote in this race.
DeStefano (Tea Party) still draws in 4.9%. Almost half (37%) of those voters would switch to Runyan if "they learned the New Jersey Tea Party endorsed Jon Runyan and not Peter DeStefano." Half (48%) would switch if told ("they learned that the Democrats recruited DeStefano in order to hurt Runyan's chances for election." I'd like to hear more from the 4 DeStafano voters who would then switch to Adler! Small number statistics to be sure but you can see why those Democratic operatives wanted DeStafeno on the ballot and Republicans want to play up the story as much as possible. The poll was taken 10/18 to 10/22 so there's a real possibility the DeStefano voters have learned the story since the poll was taken.
The new Monmouth University poll of 647 likely voters from October 22 to 25, 2010 shows an even closer race in NJ6:
Incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone holds a 7 point lead over Tea Party-backed Republican Anna Little, 52% to 45%, according to the Monmouth University Poll. A poll taken three weeks ago found the incumbent ahead by a 53% to 41% margin among likely voters in this district.
"Anna Little's gains have come from a tremendous grassroots effort in her home region of Monmouth County. Frank Pallone will need to bet on a strong turnout in more Democratic areas of this district to fend off this challenge," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Pallone has an identical 52-45 lead among the 7% who have already voted by mail. The President's job approval rating is 45-48 among the NJ6 likely voters.
As I understand the outcomes of polling, I can still safely predict Pallone will win since he is up by seven and above 50% with a week to go. But you'd be best off helping Pallone, Holt, Rothman, and our other Representatives than counting on probability. I think it's safe to say we'll get a close poll for Rush Holt later in the week. Sign up here to volunteer for Pallone.
In the election for New Jersey's 12th Congressional District, Rush Holt faces his toughest challenge in a decade. The Monmouth University Poll finds the incumbent Democrat leading Republican Scott Sipprelle by 51% to 46% among likely voters in this district.
New Jersey's 12th District stretches across the geographical waist of the state. Holt leads by 63% to 33% in the western part of the district, which includes much of Mercer County and part of Hunterdon County. Sipprelle, on the other hand, holds a 58% to 38% advantage in the eastern, Monmouth County, portion of the district. However, in the central portion, comprised mainly of Middlesex County and part of one Somerset County town, it's a much closer race - 50% for Holt to 46% for Sipprelle.
"This is not unfamiliar territory for Holt, as his first two races were won by very narrow margins. However, redistricting in 2002 added more Democratic voters to the 12th and gave Holt comfortable wins. This year, though, he has to contend with the national anti-Democrat, anti-incumbent wave," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Holt is our best New Jersey Representative in my opinion so if you have an opportunity to volunteer for him this should motivate you.
The margin of error is 3.9% since there are 690 likely voters in the sample.
...incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone holds a 12 point lead over Tea Party-backed Republican Anna Little. The Monmouth University Poll finds Pallone leading Little by a 53% to 41% margin among likely voters in this district.
Patrick Murray points out Pallone normally wins by thirty so that's not so impressive but it looks good enough. Pallone's favorable-unfavorable is 48-32, job approval is 46-36. Among other interesting numbers that show how hard this district is for Little is that the Republican Party gets 57% unfavorable and the Tea Party 51% unfavorable. FiveThirtyEight.com projected 59.3-37.3 before this poll was released, so again Pallone is doing worse than expected.
more below the fold
The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Press Media Poll (PDF) have given us the second poll of New Jersey's Third Congressional District this week, and it looks just like Eagleton's (41-39) poll :
More voters approve than disapprove of the job freshman Congressman John Adler is doing, but enough voters are looking for change in Washington that challenger Jon Runyan is within striking distance.
With five weeks to go before Election Day, the poll of likely voters found the incumbent with a narrow lead within the poll's margin of error - 42% for Democrat Adler to 39% for Republican Runyan, with 13% undecided. Adler leads by 48% to 35% in the Burlington and Camden Counties portion of the district, while Runyan has a 44% to 34% advantage among Ocean County voters.
In related questions, Adler's job approval is 49-34. DeStefano is at 4%. Click through to see various breakdowns on issues, which are all pretty even. (Also, see third poll below the break.)
Still, as the release below shows, Adler is in reasonable position for an incumbent Democrat in a marginal seat given the prevailing winds of 2010. He seems to be so because most likely voters in the district actually say they prefer experience over an outsider and because he is seen somewhat more favorably than is his opponent Republican Jon Runyan.
He has a detailed discussion of the likely voter screen. The likely voter sample is 41-39-6 for Adler-Runyan-DeStafano. Adler has a nine point lead 40-31-6 with registered voters. Turnout looks to be killing Democrats, as Obama's twitter feed suggested yesterday:
The other side is counting on you staying home this Nov. They're counting on your silence. They are betting on your apathy. Prove them wrong
I keep hearing Republicans -- from Joe Scarborough to that annoying guy at work -- tell me Governor Chris Christie is a rising star who's up up up in the polls.
Christie is at 45% approval in this poll. He got 49% of the vote in 2009. In the last three months he's polled 45, 51, 47, and 44 in registered voter or all resident samples. I believe his support is basically unchanged, as indeed it probably should be given that he hasn't had a full year in office.
Monmouth presents evidence that most are aware of the Race to the Top situation and many blame Christie. We can certainly see Christie's initial spin didn't work because only 1% of people blame President Obama and only 3% blame the Federal education department. Can anyone think of less convincing spin they've ever seen polled?
Obama at 48 approval to 43 disapproval is a serious decline from his 57-42 victory.
The generic Congress question -- "Do you think the country would be better off if the Republicans controlled Congress, if the Democrats controlled Congress, or would the country be the same regardless of which party controlled Congress?" -- favors Democrats over Republicans 27 to 22, but I don't think the phrasing is very helpful for looking at the next election. The majority picking the middle option have to choose a candidate or (more likely!) not vote.
Click PDF #2 to see some specific proposals polled, but I'd describe them this way: When asked "How much of their health care premiums do you think New Jersey government employees should pay - nothing, about 10 percent, about 25 percent, about half, or more?" it's no surprise that half (55%) of New Jersey adults pick one of the two options in the middle. A large majority think there is no need for higher benefits compared to the private sector (61%) and an even bigger one says the costs of the pension system have gotten out of control (78%) but when it comes to reducing pensions for current employees the public splits evenly (46-46). It's not so easy to really make cuts but the public workers are on shaky ground.
We're fortunate that Rutgers Professor David Redlawsk has arranged for the first independent poll of poll of the NJ3 Congressional Race, widely believed to be the most (only?) competitive one this year. Incumbent John Adler, who has positioned himself as a conservative Democrat, faces Jon Runyan, who is a famous football player but so far seems to know very little about policy. The full PDF is available here. The headline is that Representative Adler leads in the poll, although with only 421 registered voters the margin of error is an uncomfortably larger 4.8 percent.
There are other permutations of the question, but I think these are two most important. On the one hand, Adler is ahead. On the other, he is way under 50%, a sign of danger for an incumbent. In July, Adler released an internal poll where he lead by 17 (51-34) Statistically, such poll announcements favor the releaser by an extra 6-7% or so. (That is, Adler or Runyan would only release polls that happen to show unusually large/lucky leads, while our faithful Professor releases all results.) 17-7=10, so you might call the polls in good agreement with my proposed correction. Runyan has not released anything, so it now does seem likely Adler is ahead.
Other "generic" polls of New Jersey suggest that other Democratic incuments should be fine:
The approval-disapproval numbers for the sample of 801 New Jersey adults:
Obama 52-42
Lautenberg 45-31
Menendez 37-31
Own Congressman 54-28
We all know most Representatives are re-elected, but somehow I'm still surprised. 66% of the sample is "dissatisfied with the way things are currently going in Washington," yet they like their own Congressman. Perhaps there is something to be said for the way district boundaries are drawn? In any case, this suggests to me that the NJ3 race is the only one to be competitive. Most New Jersey adults (51%) think it doesn't make any difference who controls Congress, with the parties splitting the remainder equally. That's the disillusionment that the Republicans sought with their "Party of No" strategy in the Senate thanks to the super-majority rules.
A comment on Bob Menendez: He just isn't as well known. Not only his overall disapprove, but the subgroups of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans have virtually identical "disapproval ratings" as Lautenberg does. His missing approval numbers are in the volunteered "Don't Know" category, at least in this poll, and at the end of the 2012 those voters who like the very same acts by Obama and Lautenberg will vote for Menendez. You may recall that other pollsters recently found Menendez at a net plus 7 (50-43, Rasmussen) and minus 5 (38-43, Quinnipiac.) But look at how pollsters can differ: Rasmussen's automated poll of "likely voters," which (I think) pushes voters for a second choice, has only 7% "don't know" but Monmouth's poll of adults, with presumably no pushing from the human operators, has 32%. Lots of people don't vote! The pollster also has numbers showing there's not much support for the recall effort.
The headline for the energy poll was the offshore oil drilling:
Just 31% of Garden State residents are in favor of drilling for oil or gas off the New Jersey coast, while 63% are opposed. This marks a turnaround from two years ago, when a majority of 56% favored this energy option compared to only 36% who opposed it.
By comparison, support for both wind and nuclear energy remains basically unchanged. Fully 8-in-10 residents support the placement of energy-generating windmills off the New Jersey coast (80% today, compared to 82% in 2008) and just under 4-in-10 support building another nuclear power plant in the state (37% today, compared to 41% in 2008).
Pollster Patrick Murray observes that the coastal counties give the same numbers as the inland ones.
As for this Salem County resident, I think the interesting number is that 58% statewide oppose a new nuclear power plant.
When asked "which of the following do you think should be the more important priority for U.S. energy policy - keeping energy prices low or protecting the environment?", 28% go for low prices and 55% for the environment. 15% volunteer "both" despite not being given it as a choice. New Jersey is not Sarah Palin country.
Patrick Murray has released the latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll (PDF), with this release focusing on Governor Chris Christie and the budget. The poll is based on 801 adults with an estimated 3.5 margin of error:
Governor Christie's job rating currently stands at 44% approve to 44% disapprove among all state residents, and 45% to 43% among registered voters. This marks a nominal, but not significant, increase from his April rating after he first announced his budget plan (41% to 44% among all adults and 42% to 44% among voters). Christie receives plaudits from 80% of Republicans (up 15 points from April), 45% of independents (down 4 points), and 23% of Democrats (up 4 points).
The state legislature gets positive job ratings from 24% of the public (up from 20% in April) and negative ratings from 49% (down from 56%).
It's far too early to talk about single terms but Christie has not expanded beyond his election day numbers, and he can't count on another three-way race against Jon Corzine. On the other hand, I'd bet he'd do a bit better if only "likely 2010 voters" or "actual 2009 voters" were counted.
The public was asked to give letter grades in various areas, and Christie does well on "controlling costs and cutting waste" and "ethics and honesty." He does notably worse on "property tax relief" and quite poorly on "improving schools." I don't think those views are too surprising, except that I'd say most here at BJ don't expect that ethics number to hold up for four years.
Monmouth also polled on the budget and found most people can "live with it." Majorities think the budget will "hurt" the "middle class," the "poor," and "property tax payers." Certainly that's a sign of weakness for the future. Click the link above to see more budget numbers.
This is the same poll that was used for a release on the public's view of the property tax cap deal. If you've forgetten, the deal was favored 48-31, and the governor's original proposal actually polled better, though you need to read the release to see the caveats.
We have new New Jersey polls from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen. Between the two, Chris Christie does about the same as before, and I'd say so far he is holding onto the people that elected him.
Rasmussen has Governor Christie at a solid 51% approval with 45% disapproval. Quinnipiac has him at 44-43%. Right or wrong, Rasmussen is consistently about six points more Republican than other pollsters, so the better Rasmussen number is just what we should expect. Quinnipiac notes especially strong support (56%-29%) in the "Shore" region.
The bottom line is this: the sample included in Rasmussen's polling is increasingly out of balance with that observed by almost all other pollsters. This appears to create a substantial house effect, irrespective of whether Rasmussen subsequently applies a likely voter screen.
Quinnipiac has Senator Bob Menendez at 43% approval to 38% approval, "his highest disapproval ever." On the other hand, Rasmussen surprisingly finds Menendez's approval at 50%(!) and disapproval at 43%. Of course, Rasmussen buries the number in a release touting NJ likely voters as split 39-39 on recalling him. Combining the two Menendez seems to be where he usually is.
President Obama is at 50-46 according to Quinnipiac. These state polls don't give us data on Adler, the guy actually in a 2010 battle, and unfortunately, I don't see a generic Congressional ballot either. I recommend this post by Tom Jensen on the likelihood of Democrats staying home.
On issues, Rasmussen finds strong support for salary freezes at schools and capping property taxes. Quinnipiac finds the same thing with a slightly different question, even though they also find strong liking for teachers. On the other hand, Quiniipiac found an overwhelming majority (72%) are worried about state aid cuts increasing their property taxes. Furthermore, 61% say Christie should have signed the millionaires tax, which oddly enough Rasmussen didn't ask about. A similar number oppose increasing their own property taxes to avoid cuts to schools.
Quinnipiac asked about the Supreme Court and Judge Wallace in various ways: More people disapprove of Christie's actions than approve, but many don't know about the issue.
President Obama continues to slip. Governor Christie's approval is the same as their previous poll but the disapprove has gone up by 10%. Both are being hurt by the economy but in my opinion aren't in bad shape.
Direction of the country:
Right 34%
Wrong 52%
Direction of New Jersey
Right 35%
Wrong 55%
Those numbers are almost identical overall but check out the partisan breakdowns: 74% of Democrats but only 30% of Republicans say New Jersey is on the wrong track. Meanwhile, 83% of Republicans say the country is on the wrong track and only 28% of Democrats do. It's a good warning about taking those numbers too seriously.
Basically all budget cuts asked got strong majority support as a "good idea:" "Not letting public employees save up more than two years of vacation time" (74%-23%), "By law, limit salary increases for public employees to a maximum of two and a half percent a year?" (60%-33%), "Raise the retirement age for public employees to 65 from 62." (61%-33%), "Ask school teachers not to take a pay increase for the coming year" (64%-31%) and "Move school elections from April to November" (53%-18%).
On the other hand, "Taking everything into account, do you think the budget Gov. Christie has proposed is good for New Jersey or bad for New Jersey?"
Good: 41%
Bad: 37%
Unsure: 22%
Christie could be getting more support, I think, if he didn't come off as a bullying jerk, but this poll is certainly not going to scare him off his course.
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