UPDATE: Blue Jersey is hearing that S-1, the marriage equality bill, will go before the full Senate on February 13, with Senate Judiciary coming first this Tuesday.
Tuesday morning (event details) supporters of marriage equality (and some opponents) will show up at the NJ Statehouse as the Senate Judiciary Committee hears testimony on S-1, the marriage equality bill that leads off the NJ Senate calendar in the 215th Legislature.
If your work and family schedule allows you to be there - testimony starts 11am, but people will gather hours earlier to claim a seat - or better yet, if you can alter your schedule to make this a priority, our showing up in numbers would make impact on a Legislature which has had two years to move toward recognizing the call for equality from New Jerseyans both gay and straight, the failure of civil unions, and the march toward fair treatment of states all over the country. (Deciminyan has a handy guide to counter the arguments the other side uses).
New Jersey supports marriage equality. And that support comes from New Jerseyans both straight and gay.
The Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday shows that support among NJ voters at New Jersey voters support 52% for and just 42%.
A few interesting numbers stand out:
Democrats support ME 62-33%
Independents support ME 54-38%
Republicans oppose ME 59-35%
Both women (55-40%) and men (49-44%) would support a law allowing same-sex couples to marry
Same-sex marriage is not a threat to traditional marriage. Agree: 65 - 32%
Denying same-sex marriage is discrimination. Agree: 53-45%
These are useful numbers for legislators considering supporting marriage equality in New Jersey, bringing us to parity with neighboring New York and Connecticut, not to mention Iowa, Massachusetts, D.C., New Hampshire, Vermont ...
There's such a tremendous opportunity for New Jersey's legislators - and New Jersey's governor - to be heroes on this issue. Already, we've seen Senate President Steve Sweeney shift course from abstaining in 2010 to leading on this issue in 2012. Who will join him?
Yesterday, we saw the results of a statewide poll that by overwhelming numbers New Jerseyans support the Jersey participants of Occupy Wall Street and Occupy Philly. Both OWS, the granddaddy of the now worldwide Occupy phenomenon and its Philadelphia counterpart have been going on for weeks. But so too has Occupy Trenton, with just a fraction of the participants of both those cities or of Occupy Albany in the capitol city of our neighboring state.
But the Trenton occupiers have also been maintaining a round-the-clock presence at the World War II Memorial across West State Street from the NJ State House. And their right to be there, to exercise their right of free speech there, is at the center of a court case (which we covered here and here) the ACLU has taken on their behalf.
We may hear Judge Mary Jacobson's ruling as early as today. Meanwhile, here's a 10-min. video I shot in the early evening light on the day Occupy Trenton went to court. I'm not our best videographer, but you'll hear from all three lawyers, Bennet Zurofsky, David Perry Davis and ACLU-NJ legal director Ed Barocas, and some of the Trenton occupiers.
Like any free speech case, though the numbers are smaller at Occupy Trenton, the implications of the State's effort to shut them down, are much, much larger. We'll bring you the Judge's decision soon as we hear.
Judging by they way that New Jersey is portrayed on popular TV shows The Sopranos, Jersey Shore and The Real Housewives of New Jersey, you would think that the state is filled with stereotypical arrogant, obnoxious, thick headed loudmouths with entitlement issues. Even more so given that our current Governor fits that very description himself - all while being hailed as the latest savior of the Republican Party - and it wouldn't be a stretch to think that this is a match made in heaven (or hell, depending on your view of Christie, New Jerseyans at large and the stereotypes on the above shows).
As out-of-state Republicans urge Gov. Chris Christie to seek the party's presidential nomination next year, a majority of New Jerseyans questioned in a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll made public on Friday say they would not vote to re-elect him as governor in 2013.
Forty-nine percent said they would support another candidate while 42 percent said they would vote for Christie.
Voters in the state narrowly think gay marriage should be legal, by a 47/42 margin. That includes a 46/35 spread with independent voters. When you broaden the issue to civil unions 81% of voters support some form of legal recognition for gay couples to only 17% opposed. 41% say full same sex marriage rights would be their preference with another 40% supporting civil unions. Even among Republicans in the state 77% support either gay marriage or civil unions.
Most don't vote on this issue anyway, so our legislators may be reassured that "Democrats lead on the generic legislative ballot 52-39."
In New Jersey Romney's at 22% with Bachmann at 21%, Ron Paul at 11%, Rick Perry at 10%, Herman Cain at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 3%.
These numbers look just like national polls, and since we're going to be having the primary in June, it doesn't seem like early preferences here matter. Romney, in my opinion, seems very weak for a front-runner. Pawlenty is just pathetic. Huntsman didn't get anything from announcing in New Jersey.
(Yes, they do confirm that Governor Christie would have a huge lead in the primary here if he were to run.)
If you've been following the Public Policy Polling releases like me, you've noticed one thing missing: The 2012 Presidential match-up numbers. Now those New Jersey numbers are out:
Romney's 14-point deficit, 53-39, is only a hair less than McCain's 15-point loss in 2008. Christie falls behind by 17, 56-39; Michele Bachmann by 20, 55-35; Tim Pawlenty by 22, 54-32; Herman Cain by 26, 55-29; and Sarah Palin also by 26, 59-33.
We already knew this, but it is worth saying again: In his home state, Christie is not even competitive against Obama. New Jersey may get attention for the Senate race, but we're going to have to live on Philly TV commercials if we want to see the Presidential candidates.
Only 43% of voters in the state approve of the job Christie is doing to 53% who disapprove. That -10 approval spread represents a 13 point decline from when PPP last polled the state in January, when Christie's standing was 48/45. Christie's numbers are steady with Republicans. But independents have really turned on him, going from approving by a 55/39 margin to disapproving by a 54/40 margin.
In the head-to-head match-ups with Democrats, Christie consistently gets just 42-43% of the vote. That's much worse than Senator Menendez's numbers, and it's at the level where an incumbent is in real danger. Now, as for specifics, Cory Booker does best (leading 48-43), while Pallone and Sweeney are in statistical ties. Pallone though is unknown statewide while Sweeney is unpopular. Finally:
we also- at the request of our blog readers and just for fun- looked to see how Bruce Springsteen would fare in a run against Christie. Each would start out at 42%, but there's a lot more room for growth for the Boss because while only 4% of Republicans are undecided, 23% of Democrats say they're not sure who they would vote for.
That underlines Christie's problem. Of course he will get 42% of the vote, any Republican can get that. But if independents even split evenly the Democrat can and will beat him.
We all know the story in New Jersey. Our Democratic senators -- even Frank Lautenberg -- poll poorly on approval ratings but after much hype win the election easily. Public Policy Polling just released its New Jersey poll and we can see the usual at work:
Bob Menendez, Favorable-Unfavorable: A lousy 37-35.
But put Menendez up against conservative Mike Doherty, recent statewide winner Kim Guadagno, Jets owner Woody Johnson, or more establishment Republican Tom Kyrillos, and he polls 48% with 13-19% leads.
Remember what that means: the Republican needs 90% of the undecided voters. It's not impossible but it's not a good bet. Remember that the 50% rule is a myth; incumbents need to much lower (like Corzine was) to be in deep trouble.
Tom Kean Jr, who Menendez beat easily despite softness in the polls in 2006, does a bit better but still trails. By now, we all know that although it seems absurd, a significant number of voters confuse him with his father if not reminded.
In any case, Menendez had better run like his career depends on it. But, he's heavily favored, and this poll shows why.
ps. They've hinted on twitter that Christie's poll numbers are bad. Release is tomorrow. Perhaps though that wil encourage him to jump in the Presidential race.
More than half of New Jersey residents say they wouldn't back Governor Chris Christie for a second term, disapproving of his choices on a range of policy and personal issues...
Fifty-eight percent of New Jersey residents disagreed with Christie's decision not to extend a surcharge on the state's highest-earning taxpayers, a measure that was revived for a vote this week by the Democratic-led Legislature. A majority, 51 percent, opposed his October cancellation of an $8.7 billion rail tunnel to New York...
The governor's education-spending reductions were opposed by 65 percent
His favorable rating is only 43%. I don't remember seeing a Bloomberg poll here before, but the company used Selzer & Co, apparently a highly rated polling company.
New Jersey residents are divided on Governor Chris Christie's job performance and his ratings have dropped since the last Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll in February. He now stands at 47% approve to 49% disapprove among all state residents. Among registered voters, he has a 46% positive to 49% negative job rating.
The change in Christie's rating comes mainly from the number of people who shifted from having no opinion of the governor a few months ago to holding a negative view today.
This is the third poll this month with Christie back under 50% approval and surging disapproval. What's going on? Pollster Patrick Murray points to the continuing budget problems. I too think that after 18 months the incumbent governor starts to own the problems. But I think still think that his bullying and rightward shift to appeal to other states' Republican Presidential primary voters is also hurting him.
The sample has 807 New Jersey adults and a margin of error of 3.5%. You might be amused to see they polled on the governor's "YouTube" town hall performances. I should point out that the legislature, which will actually be on the ballot this year, still polls poorly (33% approve, 47% disapprove) but there's nothing new in that.
Conservatives have loved to point to Chris Christie as a "popular" governor polling above 50%, but today a William J. Hughes Center Poll (PDF) confirms that Christie would get crushed by Obama for President and is trouble even for re-election:
"When we asked about a hypothetical campaign between President Obama and Gov. Christie, voters favored Obama over Christie by 51% to 33.5%," said Hughes Center Executive Director Sharon Schulman. "We also asked if they agreed or disagreed that Christie should run for President in 2012, 68.8% of the voters somewhat or strongly disagreed with him running."
...NJ voters were slightly positive on their overall opinion of Christie in general (48.8% favorable vs. 45.4% unfavorable). When asked if the election for NJ governor was held today would they vote to re-elect Christie, voters were evenly split at 44.6% "yes" and 44.1%
This is a poll of 1,000 likely voters, so Christie would probably do worse amongst a wider sample. Many voters said Christie's confrontational style has alienated them.
65.6% of voters view President Obama "favorably" or "somewhat favorably."
The latest poll from Survey USA tells us we won't be hearing about how popular New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is for long:
New Jersey Republican Governor Chris Christie, beloved by some and despised by others for his bluntness, has a Minus 18 job approval today as speculation continues about whether Christie should run for President. 38% of NJ adults approve of the job Christie is doing, 56% disapprove.
According to this latest Eyewitness News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA exclusively for WABC-TV in New York City, NJ voters by 5:1 say Christie should not run for President.
* By 2:1, NJ voters say Christie would be a worse president than Barack Obama.
* Obama carried NJ in 2008 by 15 points. Obama's approval rating in NJ today is Plus 14 (54% approve, 40% disapprove).
* Voters split evenly on whether Christie would be better president than George W. Bush.
The poll is of 700 New Jersey adults including cell phone users. Christie probably would do a bit better excluding non-voters (but journalists shouldn't forget that their opinions exist.) He can also take solace that he's at +49 with Tea Party supporters, but I think his attempts to appeal to Republican Presidential primary voters are hurting him with everyone else in New Jersey. He's at a terrible minus 23 with self-identified moderates.
After becoming less positive following introduction of the budget, New Jersey voters remain split on their impression of Gov. Chris Christie, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. While 44 percent of registered voters give the governor a favorable rating, 42 percent view him unfavorably and 14 percent have no opinion. In February, 46 percent viewed the governor favorably and 44 percent unfavorably.
Professor Redlawsk believes Christie went down after his budget address and never recovered the lost popularity. Christie himself seems to think he was taken into the hearts of the people, but maybe he was just lying.
President Obama is at 55-32. Senator Menendez is at 32-24. Senator Lautenberg is at 38-28. These numbers are characteristic of New Jersey. More people support the Libya action than oppose it.
There is also a discussion, which you may or may not find interesting, how different descriptions of job performance can be perceived differently. (Is "fair" bad? Is a "C" bad?)
FDU have an overexcited headline on their new poll -- Jersey Guy Runs Better Nationally than Other Big Republicans -- but it's simply misleading as they find Chris Christie running worse than both Romney and Huckabee. Both of them also get much better primary numbers than Christie. What FDU should say is Chris Christie runs better than Sarah Palin, a candidate so bad that other polls have found she'd make Texas and Kentucky toss-ups, Gingrich, the unpopular speaker of the House, and the obvious loser Pawlenty.
Anyway, Obama beats Christie 46-40 in the nationwide sample of 800 registered voters.
Personally if I were Christie I'd be strongly tempted to run given how weak the other Republicans are, but he's basically a generic Republican without any special appeal. Other polls have shown he'd lose New Jersey to Obama as badly as John McCain did.
A new survey by Democracy Corps in 50 of the most competitive battleground Congressional districts - nearly all of which gave a majority to Obama in the last presidential election - shows the new Republican majority very much in play in 2012.
The Republican incumbents in these districts, 35 of them freshmen, remain largely unknown and appear very vulnerable in 2012 (depending on redistricting). In fact, these incumbents are in a weaker position than Democratic incumbents were even in late 2009, or Republican incumbents were in 2007 in comparable surveys conducted by Democracy Corps.
The polled districts include the old NJ-3 (Jon Runyan) and NJ-7 (Leonard Lance). Now, we don't know what the new districts will be, and New Jersey is losing a seat, so it's too early to worry about details. What is clear through this and other polls that the Republican extremists in the House (and their counterparts at the state level) are alienating independents, exciting Democrats, and all-in-all building a voting record that will be difficult to defend.
The key though is that Democrats -- and progressives -- must recruit credible challengers while the window of opportunity is still open. LoBiondo's district is very favorable to Democrats, but giving him a pass year after year has left him seemingly invulnerable. Democrats can't afford to make the same mistake with Runyan.
While we wait for a new governor, today's new result from Pew Research's nationwide survey on how the ground continues to shift on marriage equality:
The survey finds a continuing rise in support for same-sex marriage since 2009. Currently, 45% say they favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally while 46% are opposed. In Pew Research surveys conducted in 2010, 42% favored and 48% opposed gay marriage and in 2009, just 37% backed same-sex marriage while 54% were opposed
Yglesias is optimistic that the U.S. Supreme Court may be sympathetic too and that polls like these would provide Justices cover.
What a happy day for New Jersey political junkies: We got releases of both the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Press Media Poll PDF, plus or minus 3.5 percent) and the Quinnipiac poll (plus or minus 2.7 percent.) They agree quite well.
It's a pretty good day for Governor Christie too, with favorable-unfavorable job ratings of of 49-41 (Monmouth), or 52-40 (Quinnipiac.) amongst New Jersey registered voters. That's great agreement. You may have seen a Republican "internal poll" being touted recently; as usual, it was about 7 points more favorable to those releasing it than a neutral party. In Quinnipac, 51% say Christie's first year is mainly a success and only 35% say mainly a failure; In Monmouth, they find 25% think he has "major accomplishments", 39% "minor accomplishments," and 34% say "no real accomplishments." Same thing, different phrasing.
We can have some fun looking at the results of a statewide poll of New Jersey by Public Policy Polling. Along with approval ratings for the major figures, they provide head-to-head numbers for future races. There are 520 "New Jersey voters" for an estimated margin of error of 4.3%.
Those numbers are actually misleadingly good for Christie though. 21% of Democrats are undecided in such a match up while only 7% of Republicans are. That's probably a reflection of 38% of voters in the state still not having an opinion about Booker.
Uh-oh. Bad numbers for the re-match. On the other hand, PPP observes that 51% of voters don't know who Kean is. I'll go further and suggest that if so many don't know who he is, some must think Kean Jr. is his popular father -- even though I wouldn't have guessed it.
Obama may be weak at the moment but it seems that even a local Republican would get crushed. Gingrich, Huckabee, and Romney all do about the same as Christie.
To the degree you take such early polls seriously, we can conclude that New Jersey's 14 electoral votes will go to Obama without a battle, Menendez might be vulnerable, and Christie can be defeated.
Peter Woolley, political scientist and director of the Fairleigh Dickenson U. Public Mind Poll calls the poll numbers he released today on Senator Bob Menendez "anemic" for "an energetic guy who has already served 5 years."
Menendez, who is coming off of a stint chairing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), where his party lost a handful of seats but retained control, has now identified himself in voters' minds as a key party man. Will his out-front DSCC role (which he doesn't want to continue in, and Harry Reid is having trouble filling with someone else) hurt him if the country swings rightward? Will the country swing rightward?
31% of his own NJ constituency have a favorable opinion of him.
25% unfavorable.
44% are either unsure (29%) or haven't heard of him (15%).
Among Democrats, 17% say they don't recognize his name. Another 26% are unsure/no opinion, 10% unfavorable, but 47% favorable. Is it enough in a state where Tea Party people vow they'll take their (almost certainly losing) campaign to the Supreme Court to be allowed an effort to recall him?
