As the GOP machine lines up behind Jon Runyan and he prepares to launch his campaign this week, Justin Murphy isn't ready to give him the primary victory just yet:
"If Jon prevails, I would be happy to support him in the general election (against incumbent U.S. Rep. John Adler), but while he's been a registered Republican for three months, I've been a registered Republican for 30 years," Murphy adds. "We need more substance."
With some of Runyan's positions, it will be interesting to see what the Tea Party does and if they get behind Murphy's effort. Up until now, the GOP has been able to avoid the brutal primary that plagued them last time around.
The campaign of Jon Runyan is off to a sputtering start, though he now has the backing of all county parties in the 3rd District. First it was revealed that he's a donkey farmer masquerading as an elephant. Then he had his uninspiring debut in Camden County. This line stands out to me and has been repeated a few times already:
Runyan says he believes the country is being taken in the wrong direction by career politicians.
It seems like this will be a standard attack from Runyan. Here's the problem. Jon Runyan does like some career politicians. After all, Dawn Addiego who helped Runyan to run, was a councilwoman for many years, then a freeholder and now is an Assemblywoman. And then when asked who he admires:
Asked what political figure he admires, he in fact names Christie.
That would be the same Chris Christie, who was a freeholder, fundraiser, appointed US Attorney and then elected Governor. I guess it's ok be a career politician if he likes you, but not if he's running against you?
The National Republican Congressional Committee, in one of those generic press releases both parties use to insert the name of the incumbent they want to bash, is trying to link U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) to Charles Rangel, the veteran New York congressman who was admonished by the House Ethics Committee last week.
"Members of Congress must be held to the highest standard and face the appropriate consequences for their actions," Adler said. "Congress should be focused on creating jobs and turning our economy around, and a prolonged discussion about Mr. Rangel's chairmanship is a distraction. Mr. Rangel should step down as chairman, so Congress can get back to work."
Hopeful started a blog to watch Jon Runyan now that it appears he will have a clearer path to the nomination without a big primary fight. Following the news that Councilman Maurice "Mo" Hill would step aside and let Runyan have the clear path the other day, he made this observation:
Rear admiral and dentist, or football player and donkey farmer? I'd have thought America would be better off with the former, but as is usual with both parties in New Jersey, the political bosses won't let party members choose their own candidate.
As Hopeful says, this situation isn't unique. We'll see how the Donkey farmer holds up now that the the machine is lining up behind him. Hopeful's second post critiqued Runyan's interesting launch to his campaign the other night. I would like to remind him that Jon Runyan is also an actor, as seen in this McDonalds commercial:At their first debate, I think it would be funny to see Runyan and Adler do the chest bump rather than the handshake.
"Rather than divide our party in an expensive primary, I have decided to withdraw my name for consideration and throw my support to Jon Runyan," Hill said in the statement. "Jon has the financial ability to match Adler's fundraising abilities as well as considerable name recognition from his professional career."
So he's got money and people know his name cause he was a football player. Sounds enthusiastic. But that reaction was a ringing endorsement compared to what he got from GOP Boss George Gilmore:
Gilmore said NFL player and former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan of Mount Laurel "would have to be considered the front-runner" for the nomination.
Wow, talk about some excitement coming from Gilmore. He might as well have gone with the, he's the last guy who wants it endorsement. You wonder what they'd be saying about the guy if he wasn't willing to self fund. Runyan is going to need a more enthusiastic Gilmore to help raise his name ID in Ocean County.
It is however pretty significant that Runyan won't have to face a primary with a candidate back by the party organization. Chris Myers only lost by a 52-48 margin and there was a bitter primary leading up to it. Runyan can consolidate the party now and raise money for what will be a well funded opponent in Adler. Not everyone is ready to clear the field as Joe Rullo says he still considers himself the front runner in Ocean County and he's running regardless. Justin Murphy has also said he is running out of Burlington County. They are getting a late jump on things as Adler announced his campaign in September '07 for a November '08, while Runyan is getting started in March '10 for a race just 8 months later. This is shaping up to be very competitive fight for the seat.
I do not think Leonard Lance can be beaten in a Republican Primary. Even if David Larsen won, he would be cut out in redistricting in 2012."
Doherty's statement is sure to anger some of the same people that put him in office, but his decision seems to be more about is own political standing and thinking Lance is the safe bet so it's better to keep his powder dry in this one. Larsen will need to raise some seed money to show people he's serious and not just looking to loan his campaign money for the effort. I'm told that Lance won't be the only Republican to get a challenge from the tea party crowd as someone may run against Frank Lobiondo.
Then in the seats held by Democrats, there are a few primary races to run against the Incumbent. There are numerous candidate running in the 3rd district and Justin Murphy could also get support from the tea partiers as he runs again this year. There is also the primary to run against Rush Holt as Mike Halfacre and Scott Sipprelle will face off in a right v. further right battle and there may be more candidates to jump in the race. Assemblywoman Mary Pat Angelini and others have expressed interest in challenging to run against Frank Pallone as well. The tea partiers are even saying they may put someone up against Scott Garrett from the right, if that's possible in comments to stories that are being written. The amount of candidate running in GOP primaries can be seen as an indication of the enthusiasm and also anger out there with the public right now, who only want to see 8% of incumbent re-elected right now.
By contrast, the Democrats in New Jersey don't seem to like primaries as much. The only primary challenge I've seen so far is one against John Adler, but his warchest will make that an uphill climb. I know inside political circles they tend to shy away from primaries, because it makes you spend resources you want to conserve for the general election battle and take stands you often don't want to defend. But sometimes primaries can better prepare candidates for the trial by fire that is a general election campaign. Even if the GOP candidates don't win their primary challenges, the incumbents will already be in campaign mode given the voter angst right now. The competitive primaries to challenge Democratic incumbents will season them for the rigors of a race. With the climate and public opinion where it is, it's important that candidates don't wait to start their campaigns and these primaries insure that the GOP won't.
There has been a good deal written in the papers in the last few days about the farmland tax break that Jon Runyan is taking advantage of by raising a few donkeys. As I was searching through my computer this past weekend, I realized that's not his only involvement with donkeys.
Back in 2007, the Democrats were trying to take control of my home town, Evesham. Yes we had non-partisan municipal elections at the time, but it was clearly partisan slates of candidates running. Just before the election, I remembered that I attended a fundraiser for the slate of Democrats including Randy Brown, John McKenna and Chris Brown. I also remembered that there were some special guests, including one Jon Runyan and then I found this photo:
That's Runyan and other guests with the eventual winning Democratic ticket. And then there was this photo where he was interviewed while raising money for the Democrats on CSN Philadelphia:
"A big win and a clean sweep for Democrats," said Democratic State Chairman Joseph Cryan.
And Jon Runyan helped to make it happen. So not only does Jon Runyan save money by raising donkeys, he has raised money to help elect them. George Gilmore will not be pleased.
The jokes just write themselves with this one as Congressional candidate to be Jon Runyan is also a farmer apparently:
Former Philadelphia Eagle Jon Runyan is getting a break on his property taxes for his lavish Mount Laurel homestead - thanks in part to his four donkeys.
Runyan, a Republican candidate for the U.S. House, paid $57,000 in taxes last year on five of his acres, which contain his home.
But on most of his property - 20 acres - he paid $468 in taxes, according to township records.
On his application for a farmland assessment in July, Runyan said he uses five acres as grazing land for his donkeys and 15 for timber, harvesting seven cords of firewood that he sold for $810.
You may remember the farmland assessment issue rearing its head in such races as Ellen Karcher v. Jen Beck and most recently Scott Garrett v. Dennis Shulman. As Babs pointed out in this Ken Bank diary, the GOP was relentless against Karcher on the issue. Up until recently Runyan wasn't fulfilling his dream of raising donkeys, but was motivated by the potential of losing that tax break:
Runyan didn't always have the four donkeys. Last January, the township assessor wrote to Runyan that one donkey wasn't enough to justify the tax break.
"Although your application was approved for 2009, this acreage will not qualify in the future if you do not have enough animals to justify the five acres," the letter said.
A year later, Runyan reported having four donkeys grazing on five acres, and kept his tax break.
Russell said Runyan had long planned to breed the donkeys but wasn't ready to do that just yet.
I guess the potential increase in taxes provided the motivation to finally fulfill those plans. At 1.25 acres per donkey, they have more land than most NJ residents. I wonder what the big elephant in Ocean County George Gilmore thought over his morning coffee learning about Runyan and his affinity for donkeys.
As things shape up for a packed primary, everyone is jockeying to show their influence and now the Camden County Republicans are feeling their oats:
The truce between Ocean County chairman George Gilmore and Burlington County chairman William Layton seemed headed south in December, when Layton reiterated his support for NFL player Jon Runyan's candidacy. But the three chairmen, along with state party head Jay Webber, sat down shortly before the New Year in an attempt to calm the storm.
The plan, Camden County chairman Rick DeMichele said in an interview on Wednesday, involves Camden County Republicans holding off on an endorsement until the Ocean and Burlington parties name their pick.
"I discussed with them my desire to be the last county party to endorse," DeMichele said. "If they can't come to a consensus, then wherever Camden goes gives that candidate a clear advantage."
So his 15% will decide he says, while 42% of the district is in Burlington County and 43% in Ocean. And about that double secret meeting:
None of the chairmen would divulge details of what was said in their meeting, however. Asked if his organization would switch its endorsement if Camden and Burlington went the other way, Gilmore would not commit.
"We'll cross all those bridges when we come to them," he said.
Oh boy do I hope they cross that bridge. This is starting to be some real fun. Camden County has never felt the power to really play and even if they don't have it, I'm enjoying them trying to flex their muscles. If the party chair power struggle wasn't enough, enter new candidate to the field Joe Rullo:
While Runyan and the party chairs grab local headlines, one prospective candidate is sitting in frustration. Joseph R. Rullo isn't persuaded by assurances that all potential challengers will get a fair hearing. He's already up with a campaign Web site -- rullo4congress2010.com -- and has announced a Feb. 18 fundraiser.
"He's counted me out," said Rullo, a 40-year-old solar energy consultant. "It hurt my feelings."
Hurt feelings? Uh ok. This is politics and bare knuckle with who he's playing. He needs to get a thicker skin if he's upset that they don't want him to take their power. Layton for his part could care less what anyone else says. He's had enough Runyan Kool Aid to last the cycle:
"The excitement is overwhelming, quite frankly," Layton said, describing voter reaction to Runyan's candidacy.
Layton is like one of those pull string dolls. Pull string... Jon Runyan is the greatest. Pull string... Jon Runyan is exciting. Pull string... Everyone loves Jon Runyan.
My guess, George Gilmore is not amused and that must've been a fun meeting in December when they all sat down to make public peace in private.
If you thought things were shaping up to be fun in the 3rd Congressional District GOP pending primary, they just got a little more crowded yesterday according to the Atlantic City Press:
A former Democratic freeholder candidate and recent Republican campaign organizer is adding his name to the growing list of Republicans running for the party's nomination in the 3rd Congressional District race.
Joseph Rullo, 40, of Toms River, said he is going through the process to be endorsed by the Ocean County Republican Organization, but said he would still run in the primary even if not backed by the party.
Rullo owns Today's Solar Energy in Toms River and worked on Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly's 2008 primary campaign for congress. He has already opened a campaign headquarters, filed with the Federal Election Commission, and started a Web site that has, along with his bio and campaign platforms, pictures of his two cats.
Of course this news was not welcome to Bill Layton, the chairman in Burlington County and head cheerleader for Jon Runyan:
Burlington County Republican Chairman William Layton said he had not heard of Rullo or his candidacy until contacted Monday by The Press of Atlantic City.
Layton said he wished Rullo luck, but thought the keys to winning the upcoming election would be name recognition, fundraising ability and a personal story to contrast with Democratic Rep. John Adler.
Translation: If you're not Jon Runyan and you're not bringing a bank, you need not apply. And while George Gilmore got notice of Rullo's effort, it seems he was caught off guard by the stance the candidate has already taken on his run:
Ocean County Republican Chairman George Gilmore said Rullo had reached out to him saying Rullo was interested in running but not that he would be running in the primary regardless of the county's selection process results.
Gilmore said county organizations are put in place for the purpose of deciding what is best for the party as a whole, and that a contested primary would only weaken its chances in the general election.
"If we get in a primary fight, regardless of where candidates are coming from, it's not a good thing for keeping the unity of the party and focusing our attention on Mr. Adler and his record," he said.
Translation: I want to pick my own candidate through my organization and if you don't listen choosing to run anyway, it screws us all. This one is shaping up to be good. So far candidates saying they plan to run include Rullo, Jon Runyan, Mo Hill and Justin Murphy. Who else wants to join the party?
We have repeatedly noted that, in positioning himself this way, Adler has not only alienated his base - the base that he shouldn't automatically rely on in 2010 - but also will NEVER get republican votes or avoid republican Party attacks. In fact, he is still one of the targeted seats by the republican Party for 2010.
So now, we recently found out that Rep. Adler was one of a group of Democrats who met with Wall Street executives (including JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs) last fall - at the very time they were pushing to weaken legislation that would regulate the financial services industry:
In mid October, members of the New Democrat Coalition (NDC), a caucus of pro-business Democrats, traveled to New York City. According to an emailed itinerary for the trip drawn up by an event planner working for the group and obtained by TPMmuckraker, members met on October 12 with executives from Goldman, and the following day with execs from JP Morgan. Sandwiched between those events was a fundraiser for the New Dems, and a meeting with CEOs from Marsh and McLellan Companies, a consulting and insurance firm.
Based on the itinerary, the Goldman meeting was to be attended by Reps. Joe Crowley and Scott Murphy of New York, and Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona. The JP Morgan meeting was to be attended by Reps. Crowley, Murphy, Melissa Bean of Illinois, John Adler of New Jersey, and Jim Himes of Connecticut -- a former Goldman banker. Crowley serves as NDC's chair, and Bean as its vice chair.
While the House Financial Services Committee was tweaking the reform bill proposed by the Obama Administration this summer, the New Democrats pushed back on key regulatory issues. One of the biggest: derivatives, the complex financial instruments that helped spark the global financial crisis. Most derivatives are traded in murky over-the-counter deals. The Obama administration wanted to push some of them onto regulated trading platforms. But that would have crimped one of Wall Street's most lucrative businesses: The top five U.S. commercial banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, were on track through the second quarter to earn more than $35 billion in 2009 trading unregulated derivative contracts, according to a review of company filings with the Federal Reserve and people familiar with the banks' income sources. So JPMorgan, along with Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, lobbied McMahon, Bean, and other New Democrats to temper the proposed rules.
And look at who two of those companies are - JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs - the two that Adler and his "New Democratic Coalition" members met with.
Looks like Adler is "banking" on his actual constituency in his District not knowing or caring where his loyalties lie.
George Gilmore's first choice to challenge Jon Runyan in a primary and John Adler in the general is out, according to a statement he released yesterday:
"The support and encouragement that I have received from friends, constituents and political leaders has been extremely flattering and very much appreciated; however, I must convey in the most definite terms, that I am not a candidate for Congress, nor will I seek my party's nomination for that office," Connors said in a press release.
That doesn't mean the GOP is avoiding a primary though as Mo Hill, the Councilman from Toms River in Ocean County, Jon Runyan with the full support of Burlington County and Justin Murphy all have said they intend to run. The name of former lottery director Virginia Haines has also been mentioned as potentially having interest in the seat.
The Asbury Park Press is hoping for a GOP primary in the 3rd Congrssional District because like we've said before, it would be a reporters dream. It seems like they're trying to give a guide for how the GOP can beat Adler and they start with a competitive primary. But should Runyan be the candidate to challenge Adler for the seat, the APP offers this take:
In an arm-wrestling match against Adler - who is about half his size - he would do well. In debates with Adler, he could get sliced and diced.
I worry when expectations are set that low for anyone. I also don't know how much debates really matter. Before anyone get to any slicing and dicing, they need to get George Gilmore to sign off on a candidacy. The overall premise of their post is that an open primary would be better without the choosing of Gilmore and Layton. I'm guess they're just saying that and know there isn't a chance that would actually happen. That's like asking Kobayashi to stop eating hot dogs.
Runyan, meanwhile, says he'll ramp up his campaign efforts after the Chargers' season is done. He said he hopes he can concentrate on football until the Super Bowl in February.
He said he has learned already that pro sports and politics have one big thing in common: "Dealing with the scrutiny of everybody watching your every move all the time."
I'm sure there are plenty more similarities we could find if we looked hard enough. He may be surprised to know that they go to take you out at the knees in politics too.
It's amazing to watch the Republicans twist and turn sometimes in order to get around the stands they take on issues. For the Burlington County GOP, it appears that abortion is only a litmus test when the candidate doesn't have alot of money:
In case Ocean County does not field a candidate and Runyan becomes the establishment-backed favorite, Murphy thinks being pro-choice will bring the former Eagles tackle down.
"If the scenario unfolds where Jon Runyan faces Justin Murphy for the nomination, I can guarantee you I will be the nominee," said Murphy. "I'm not trying to be a trash talker on that. I can tell you why in one word: abortion. If there is a choice between one pro-choice candidate and one pro-life candidate in this election, the base of the party will support me."
Burlington County GOP Chairman Bill Layton argued that the abortion issue won't be a deal breaker with Republican primary voters.
The conservatives aren't going to like that answer. We're going to have to remember that abortion isn't a deal breaker on the right the next time they bring back the litmus test when the candidate isn't bringing a brinks truck to the campaign. They'll use life to incite and then try to selectively claim it's a non issue when the candidate can pay for a few extra mailers. Those are some principles. Somewhere George Gilmore is throwing things right now as he continues to hear Layton make declarations about what the party does and doesn't need.
It's becoming clearer by the day that Burlington County GOP chairman Bill Layton and his boss Glenn Paulsen don't really care where Jon Runyan stands on the issues, they're just seeing dollar signs:
"Adler's been raising money for a year. That's why Jon Runyan is a game changer for us. He has the ability to raise just as much money as John Adler," Layton said. "I clearly think that out of all the candidates, Jon Runyan is our best chance to take back the 3rd District."
You see it doesn't matter where Runyan stands on anything as long as he has the money to get the GOP back the power they had and lost. While Layton is clearly looking for a handout, George Gilmore doesn't seem intimidated by the fundraising challenge that Adler presents without a self funding candidate. This is going to be a reporters dream with Layton and Gilmore not wanting the other to get the last word. I'm amazed someone higher up in the Republican party hasn't stepped up to tell them keep their fights outside of the media. It really seems like the up front aggressive approach taken by Layton and Runyan is making Gilmore want to fight more, just out of protecting his reputation. Not that I mind. Let them spend all their money fighting about money.
Ocean County GOP Chair George Gilmore must be getting madder with each passing moment. I wrote about the pending civil war that is ready to break out over who will challenge John Adler the other day. Burlington County GOP Chair Bill Layton just can't help himself and when it's not Jon Runyan talking directly, Layton is making sure no story goes without a quote:
Layton, for his part, acknowledged that he supports Jon Runyan, but said there remains plenty of time to avoid a primary.
"To me it remains the same. Jon Runyan is the best candidate. So at some point we need to convince others of that, and that process is still taking place," he said. "If Jon Runyan was an Ocean County guy, I'd be with Jon Runyan. Jon Runyan is the best candidate for the race. It's about winning back the seat, not whether the guy is from Burlington, Ocean or Camden."
Gilmore said that he did not read any of Runyan's interviews and would wait until he has to comment.
Oh to be a fly on the wall when Gilmore finally reads the interviews. This has the real potential to be a fun one to watch. It sounds like Layton is telling Gilmore that there is plenty of time to avoid a primary as long as he agrees Runyan is the man. I don't think George Gilmore is used to that type of ultimatum.
"I'm definitely 100 percent in this race," the Mount Laurel resident said from San Diego, where he plays for the NFL's Chargers.
That approach and attitude s making Ocean County GOP Boss George Gilmore none to pleased:
"If he wants to announce that he's running and is the candidate no matter what then he is sadly mistaken," said George Gilmore, chairman of the Ocean County Republican Organization. "I expressed the fact that we were all going to try to take a deep breath and allow time to pass and try to reach a consensus on a candidate. To the extent that anyone disrupts that, I'm disappointed."
He continued to express his displeasure about Runyan's approach:
"There are three counties which award the line for the primary, and I would expect that anyone seeking to run to achieve a nomination from all three counties would be doing so in a manner that would try to bring all three counties together. So I'm a little disheartened about his comments," Gilmore said.
And there are signals that Gilmore may stilll have a candidate of his own in mind even though Senator Connors has said he does not plan to run:
While Gilmore is unhappy that Runyan is making the media rounds before getting the county chairs' nod, Toms River Councilman Maurice "Mo" Hill has been vocal about his intent to run.
"If it comes down to a primary and I'm supported by two of the county chairmen, that's something to be determined," he said of the prospect of an intraparty battle. "Having the support of two out of three counties is a different ballgame than one out of three."
"Anyone who underestimates Mo Hill and his abilities is making a major mistake," Gilmore said. "He presents himself very well, he knows the issues inside and out, and his military background is a plus. There's a very large veterans population in Ocean County."
And then there was this exchange from the county chairs, which unfortunately was buried deep at the end of the online article on page 5:
"I think Jon Runyan's getting poor political advice about how to get the counties' support," said Gilmore, in a clear shot across the bow at Layton and Russell.
"We thought it was important for the public to hear from Jon directly," said Russell, who also managed Chris Myers' campaign. "I don't see anything wrong about him communicating to the public how he feels about the issues, like heatlh care and taxes."
"I had thought we were all going to work together to achieve common ground. Apparently there are some people who feel it's either their candidate or no candidate," Gilmore fumed. "Though I don't want a primary, I'm not afraid of a primary."
Don't forget Justin Murphy who also ran in 2008 out of Burlington County. Primaries are not always a bad thing, but this doesn't seem to be about the issues. We don't even know where Runyan stands on many of the issues. This seems to be about who has the power for the Republicans. If this keeps going in the direction it's moving, you can just get your popcorn ready for NJ3 GOP primary part 2 - the fight to make 08 look like a tea party.
State Sen. Christopher Connors (R-Lacey) is expected to announce -- possibly as early as next week -- that he will not seek the Republican nomination for Congress in District 3. Connors was the first choice of Ocean County GOP Chairman George Gilmore, but has never seemed excited about the prospect of going to Washington. That might leave retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Maurice "Mo" Hill, a Toms River Ward Councilman, as the Ocean County Republican organization candidate, unless Gilmore decides to go with ex-NFL player Jon Runyan.
"Yup, as soon as this season is over. Hopefully, it's a little bit later than sooner,'' Runyan quipped in a telephone interview from the hometown of his newly adopted NFL team. Later than sooner, because Runyan hopes to get another crack at a Super Bowl ring this winter.
But come February, "I intend to retire from football and enter the Congressional race,'' Runyan said.
As for whether he intends to finance his own campaign, "That's something I have to sit down and discuss with my wife,'' Runyan explained. "I haven't really got there, I know it's going to take some amount of money. ... To win the race, it's going to cost multiple millions of dollars.''
When Runyan first arrived in San Diego after being signed, he said he was just exploring his options and that he "hadn't fully committed to that yet." Whether or not he decides to self finance could play a big factor in if he gets the support of George Gilmore in Ocean County or if we see a primary for the seat. And then Republicans will still have to see where he stands on the issues too.
Toms River Township Councilman Maurice "Mo" Hill, a retired Navy rear admiral and dentist, said he will run for Congress even if party leaders from the district's three counties - Ocean, Burlington and Camden - are not unified.
"If I got the support of the Ocean County organization, then yes, I would move forward," Hill said Friday.
Hill has already met with the chairmen in Burlington, Camden and Ocean Counties as has Runyan. While Republicans have said they want to avoid a primary this time around, Hill says if he gets the support of one county party he will run. For his part, Ocean County GOP boss George Gilmore has his own list of potentials:
Gilmore has his own short list of candidates, including state Sen. Christopher Connors (R-Lacey Twp), Toms River Councilman Moe Hill and former State Lottery Commissioner Virginia "Ginny Haines." Gilmore said there are also a couple other potential candidates who do not want their names floated publicly yet.
"I'm not simply going to say 'Oh yes, Jon Runyan is our guy.' There are a lot of good people out there, including Moe Hill, Chris Connors and Ginny Haines. It doesn't matter how many statements Jon Runyan puts out, it's going to be the same answer: we have a process and we're going to go through it."
We'll see whether the GOP is able to avoid a competitive primary this time around like they were unable to do in their last shot at the seat.
