For all the complaining about how Governor Corzine is outspending everyone with the amount of money they are spending for ads on TV, the numbers tell a different story:
In accepting matching funds, Christie faces a spending cap.
That's where the Republican Governors Association comes in. RCP asked Nielsen to pull the RGA's ad buys during the same period. The data shows that when combined with Christie's spending, the Republicans have actually been on the air with more ads than Corzine.
While Christie and the RGA have run more ads, the Corzine campaign has spent more time on the air:
An important distinction: all of the ads that the RGA has launched were 15-second spots, while Corzine's have been 30-seconds and 60-seconds long. So while they may match up in numbers, Corzine has still purchased more time on the airwaves.
But the Corzine campaign says the ad buys show that the Christie complaints don't hold water:
Still, the Corzine campaign points to the data to counter the Christie camp's assertion that the governor has bought his way back into the race.
"The Christie campaign's contention that this race is tight because of advertising overlooks the fact that the RGA has been funneling millions of dollars into New Jersey since before the primary to distort the Governor's record," said Corzine campaign spokesperson Lis Smith. "The more New Jersey voters learn about Chris Christie, the more they see that he is extremely wrong when it comes to what matters for the state."
Whatever the cause, we have a close race now. And as more polls come out, Christie's unfavorables have been the consistent factor, continuing to rise with each poll. We still have many more ads to see between now and election day from all sides
The NJEA released an ad yesterday called worry, highlighting some of the concerns they say Chris Christie presents:The ad features a librarian talking about Christie's opposition of the family leave law, Christie's proposal for mandate free policies, his position on pre-k as babysitting and funding for public schools. Christie decided to not participate in the NJEA candidate screening process for a potential endorsement opting to do his talking if elected. I guess they have something to say to him before that happens.
The Christie campaign put out their latest television ad yesterday, "Exactly." It's the campaigns attempt to respond to criticisms that they have no specifics, but this ad still, like the story of Christie's campaign, offers no specifics:To be honest, I'm surprised they weren't talking about property taxes like this sooner. From the ad, we get this for Christie's "plans":
"Here's exactly what I'll do as governor," Christie says boldly. "I'll cut spending and end the special interest giveaways. I'll cut taxes and restore your property tax rebates. I'll bring good jobs back to New Jersey not chase them to other states. And I'll make sure all our children get the education they deserve."
And after he finishes that, he'll give everyone a pony because he has absolutely no workable specifics for how he will do all that. The Governor's campaign didn't miss the opportunity to lay the smack down:
"When middle class families are struggling to get through this economic crisis, why is Chris Christie always fighting against them? Christie would reject President Obama's stimulus funds, even though it would increase our property taxes by $2 billion. He recently said he still backs Bush's tax giveaways for giant corporations and the very wealthiest, and he wants to bring those polices to New Jersey, even though they are the same policies that got us into this mess. The Star Ledger says Christie's plan would 'lead to even higher property taxes' for the middle class. Christie continues to be wrong on property taxes and wrong when it matters most."
As the Democratic Governors Association said, Christie may need a dictionary too because his new ad explains exactly nothing about his plans for how he'll do everything he says.
Governor Jon Corzine has shown us why Christie would be a terrible governor, now he's going to promote his achievements and show New Jersey his positive vision of the future. This is a 60-second spot called "More to Come:"
New Jersey is a great place to live and work, and however necessary it is, and however well negative ads work, it's a shame we spend millions every year in the New York and Philadelphia media markets to bash ourselves. Tell the world what you think about this ad in comments.
What do you think? Personally, I thought the sound was distractingly bad. Anyway, I doubt web ads are very important, but I suppose they are trying out the new line of attack JRB discussed yesterday.
Starting today, the Corzine campaign has a new 30-second ad going up on broadcast tv. Called If, the ad spotlights the questionable ethical behavior which has contributed to Chris Christie's rising unfavorables, as more information about him reaches more voters. The ad focuses on his eyebrow-raising history of committing serious driving offenses and getting off without a ticket or penalty, failing to disclose a sizeable loan or even pay taxes on the interest. The kind of thing you or I would get nailed on in a New Jersey minute.
There's been some grumbling that attention to Christie's driving record is a distraction. But I think it's key. I lived through Richard Nixon. I'm not down for politicians in an executive capacity deciding they're above the law. So on substance, I like this ad. I also appreciate that it's sourced and referenced - which I hope you'll take a look at - it's all after the jump.
Real Clear Politics picked up on the only quibble I have with the ad: playing the weight card on Christie. I think the coy reference in the script - "throwing his weight around" - cheapens the impact and brings it down to a more schoolyard, too-personal, ridicule of the style Ann Coulter made famous and I can do without. We get it. He's a fat, fat man. Move on to why the fat man would make a lousy governor. There's plenty to work with.
Documentation and sourcing for this ad - well worth reading - is after the jump.
Also, Quinnipiac has promised us a new poll tomorrow morning, so we'll get more data on where the campaign stands going into the traditional Labor Day start.
Of course, the ad tells you to call Christie, not vote against him, because it is an "issue" ad by an independent group, not an ad by Corzine. PolitickerNJ has a good account of the group and its major ad buy:
The Mid-Atlantic Leadership Fund, a Washington-based organization with ties to Democrats, has purchased about $900,000 worth of New York and Philadelphia TV ads attacking GOP gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie. According to filings with the Internal Revenue Service, the political organization, which will not need to disclose their donors until July, is run by Sean Sinclair, a Democratic strategist who ran Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's 2004 re-election campaign.
This kind of ad is very familiar in New Jersey politics. What do you think of it?
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), chaired by Congressman Chris Van Hollen, today announced the DCCC is launching the second phase of the Putting Families First campaign on the economic recovery bill by running automated calls in seven targeted Republican freshman districts. The calls focus on the Republicans' out of step priorities by putting partisan politics before the needs of the jobs in their districts.
Naturally, Leonard Lance (NJ7) is one of the targets of the calls, which go something like this:
Did you know Congressman Leonard Lance voted against economic recovery that would immediately create and save nearly 106,000 New Jersey jobs?
Yes, he did not merely vote to do nothing in a crisis, as I would put it, but against recovery itself. Come to think of it, it's probably true.
Let me know what you think of the DCCC calls. Are they an important step, a waste of time, or are you just bitter that the calls would have done more good in 2006?
The DCCC continues to try to push our open seat candidates over the top, this time releasing a new positive ad for John Adler:
Well, maybe my calling it positive shows I've lived in New Jersey too long. Only the first part is positive, touting Adler's endorsements. The second half criticizes Chris Myers.
Update by Jason Springer- Here is the video minus the last 3 minutes which were live from Florida:8:27 that bit about not being perfect and about including people in our democracy again made two effective emotional points. When someone is that good, he needs to show that he doesn't think he's even better than he is. Even if he's not Black. And the including people again will appeal to those who feel resentment but aren't sure against what.
8:24 WORKER: 'we've all got to pull together now or we'll lose the country.' Urgency is the trickiest part of a sale for an honest salesman. For those not attuned to civil liberties and America's role in the world, urgency hasn't necessarily been proven in this campaign. That was a good line.
8:21 Ah, quickly followed by Biden's surprise at how effective Obama was immediately on getting to the Senate.
I think this is very well written and outlined and adequately produced.
8:19 'Mom's death made me more aware you've got to seize the moment' makes a surprisingly effective implicit reason why he's running even though he's a few years younger than we're used to. (Bill Clinton was a touch younger, I think.)
8:14 Is it just the TV I'm watching on (not mine) or is the music often too loud? That's about the only thing I have to complain about.
8:08 African American family who will appeal to both Blacks and Whites. Among the points: 'I'm not a freak, there are a lot of black folk you can trust; I'm not part of some cabal that's going to turn the country over to Al Sharpton.'
8:05 Nice programmatic points on the economy. Much earlier than I thought. I like the program, of course. I also like that he's decided to have that kind of content in the infomercial quickly.
8:01 His intro was very much not about him. I wonder how much more he'll overtly present himself later.
Linda Stender has released a new ad linking Lance to Bush on Iraq and Big Oil. It has the typical Democratic ad structure, as seen in Obama ads, with the first half negative on Lance and the second half praising Stender. She promises "Responsible Withdrawal" and "End Tax Breaks for Big Oil"
Well, it's really a national cable TV ad, but those of you in North Jersey who aren't used to seeing Presidential ads might be surprised to see Changing World:
Here are Linda Stender's first TV ads of the 2008 election. The campaign notes:
The ads mark the earliest a non-incumbent has aired TV ads in the 7th District, and are among the earliest any congressional campaign in the country has aired general election ads this cycle. Voters may watch the spots on Stender's website by visiting http://www.lindastenderforcong...
The themes in these ads -- health care, energy independence -- are plainly a focus of the national party. In fact, as I was watching the ad, I got a call from a DCCC fundraiser who repeated the same phrases to me. There's also a biographical element to introduce her to voters.
The DCCC has launched a radio ad campaign against Scott Garrett and 12 other House Republicans. It takes aim at his continued blind support of George W. Bush and his oil policies.
