Rep. Michael Ferguson has ruled out a bid for U.S. Senate against Frank Lautenberg. Chris Jones, Ferguson's Chief of Staff, says that the 36-year-old Ferguson will positively not run for statewide office in 2008, and will seek re-election to a fifth term in the House. State Sen. Thomas Kean, Jr., Assemblyman Bill Baroni and Assemblyman Michael Doherty are viewed as the most likely contenders for the nomination to challenge Lautenberg, who will be 84 when he seeks his fifth term.
Had Ferguson lost to Stender, or had he run for the U.S. Senate, there was a good chance that State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr. would have run for the House instead. (He finished second in the 2000 primary, behind Ferguson.) Now the 38-year-old Kean must decide whether he is willing to chance a second statewide loss (something that usually signals the end of a political career) by running against Lautenberg -- or even against the more conservative rivals in a contested Republican primary.
So, it's down to Baroni and Doherty. Any other strong contenders?
The Inside Edge reports that Gina Genovese, the openly gay mayor of Long Hill, will challenge State Senator Tom Kean Jr, who has yet to publicly state his sexual orientation:
New Jersey's first openly gay Mayor is expected to run for State Senator next year against incumbent Thomas Kean, Jr. Gina Genovese, the Democratic Mayor of Long Hill, has been preparing for a campaign against Kean since the summer, according to local Democratic leaders.
Genovese comes from Morris County, which represents only a small part of the 21st district. She must still win the backing the Union County Democratic organization, which typically decides who will run in this fairly Republican district. But in 2003, attorney Ellen Steinberg easily won the Democratic primary for State Assembly running off of the organization line.
Today, U.S. Senator Mel Martinez was named the new general chairman of the Republican National Committee. Like Senator Menendez, Senator Martinez is a Cuban-American.
And also like Senator Menendez, Senator Martinez voted to table this amendment:
S.Amdt. 3985 to S. 2611 (Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006)
To reduce document fraud, prevent identity theft, and preserve the integrity of the Social Security system, by ensuring that persons who receive an adjustment of status under this bill are not able to receive Social Security benefits as a result of unlawful activity.
If you've already forgotten, this vote spawned numerous attacks on Senator Menendez. My home received two mailers, funded by the NJ Republican State Committee, entirely devoted to that vote. And who can forget the ads?
So the question is, 'Will the NJ GOP attack Chairman Martinez for giving Amnesty and Social Security benefits to illegal aliens?'
A list of the other GOP Senators who voted to table the amendment after the jump.
Today the NJ Senate Judiciary Committee unanimously approved the Transgender Equality Bill, sending it before the Assembly Judiciary Committee and to be followed by the full legislature.
If successful, the bill will add a citizen's "gender identity or expression" as a basis for protection under the New Jersey Law Against Discrimination.
Among the six votes in favor was Tom Kean Jr. There was one abstention by Republican Joe Kyrillos of Monmouth.
Some facts about Transgender Equality after the jump.
Tom Kean jr has spent the last year desecrating the only asset he had, his last name, by running a campaign void of ideas and full of smears. The only reason he was ever taken seriously is because of daddy. His father came into office by the slimmest of margins thanks to a blatantly racist voter intimidation campaign, so it shouldn't be surprising that Junior chose to end his campaign in a similarly racist fashion.
Junior is blanketing the state with last-minute race-baiting robocalls, trying to connect Bob Menendez to illegal immigration. This desperate Hail Mary pass is the modern equivalent of the Southern Strategy. Racist campaign tactics aren't just for Tennessee any more. Appealing to people's darkest, most hate-filled instincts is the Tom Kean jr and the Republican party's only hope for success. Pathetic scum.
"Now he wants us to give your Social Security benefits to illegal migrants. New Jersey seniors deserve far better than having your money go to those who broke the law. You can stop the Menendez plan to give your money to illegal migrants by voting for Tom Kean."
"Each year hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants are crossing our borders. And the threat of terrorists entering our nation is very real which is why in the Senate I will fight for secure border and more border patrol. My opponent supports amnesty and has voted to give out Social Security benefits to illegal migrants and I believe that is unacceptable."
It hasn’t gotten much publicity (for obvious reasons) but W. recently paid a stealth visit to Junior’s headquarters.
Curiously enough, NJ's Republican candidate for senator was less than welcoming to the Commander-in-Chief. Check out the video, courtesy of the AFL/CIO and also posted at Daily Kos and Perfectly Wrong:
This week, President Bush told reporters he's "pleased with the progress" in Iraq and that he expects Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney to remain until 2009. He then added, "Both men are doing fantastic jobs and I strongly support them."
This, after Rumsfeld has offered his resignation two known times.
And what did Kean Jr's camp have to say about this?
A spokesman for Tom Kean, a Republican Senate candidate in New Jersey, told The Times: "Obviously we're incredibly disappointed in that decision. We feel Iraq is on the verge of chaos and a new Secretary of Defense is needed if we are to change the direction and implement tactical changes."
That's the response: their feelings are a bit hurt, but oh well -- what can you do, right? Because when Bush puts his foot down, by golly, Tom Kean Jr is going to listen.
Yet another reason why Tom Kean Jr won't stand up for New Jersey.
For those of us who have attempted to glean a single definitive position on the Iraq War, stem cell funding, global warming, and other issues from Tom Kean Jr., we already know that Kean Jr. substitutes vague responses when asked for specifics, refuses to answer difficult questions from reporters, and attempts to placate the conservative and moderate branches of his supporters by giving them different responses at different times.
In these last few days of Kean Jr.’s losing campaign, however, reporters seem to be stepping up the pressure on him to state what he believes, not just restating whatever is popular (“Rumsfeld should step down,” his newfound revelation) and shifting according to the wind. Fred Snowflack,Daily Record link writing for the Daily Record, had an editorial in the Sunday edition of that paper, asking both Menendez to reveal some points about his work with the North Hudson Community Action Corp. and Kean Jr. to expand upon his “less-than-clear stance” on the Iraq War. Snowflack writes:
“We haven't heard from Kean, but Tuesday afternoon, the phone rang and Menendez was on the other end of the line.”
Menendez revealed how the Head Start funding works from a formula and how the poverty organization is still receiving that funding, hardly anything nefarious going on there. But Kean Jr. was also called out in this editorial for having a hazy stance on an issue that directly affects New Jersey; once again, he refused to provide any clarity on his position of support for the Iraq War.
Meanwhile, the Star-Ledger article Star-Ledger Link that dropped the bombshell information that Kean Jr. is receiving support from radical right-wing organizations, Pat Robertson’s Christian Coalition and the National Right to Life group, also mentions that Kean’s position on gun control
“has caused confusion among people on both sides of the issue.”
Kean Jr., at a campaign stop in Newark,
““refused to answer a reporter’s questions about the matter”.
and has received support from the Christian Coalition because he supposedly doesn’t favor any further restrictions on gun control.
True to form, Kean Jr.’s spokeswoman, Jill “Astroturf” Hazelbacker, had to backpedal and attempt to create a consistent stance for the Republican despite his inconsistent responses:
“Kean’s record on gun control is clear... and in favor of tough gun control legislation.”
Strangely, Kean Jr. is giving different responses to this issue in both his answer to the Hall Institute’s virtual debate question on gun control, where he argues that “current firearm laws” are fine, thus agreeing with the Christian Coalition's position, which contradicts his previous stances on gun control. But Bryan Miller, who serves as executive director of Ceasefire New Jersey, a gun control group that has endorsed Menendez, says Kean Jr’s response
“sounds like it's out of the NRA playbook. The gun lobby's mantra is we don't need new laws, we just need to enforce the laws we have better."”
Is it little wonder that New Jersey reporters covering our senate campaign have found Kean Jr’s policy positions to be “confusing” and “less-than-clear”?
This recent mailing was mentioned earlier today by sandy23, in a comment to Steven Hart's front page diary. I'd just like to add a bit more info.
The yellow postcards criticize Menendez for his opposition to the nomination of Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court, and suggest that New Jersey's Italian-Americans should therefore oppose the Senator and vote for Junior Kean.
The card was allegedly produced and mailed by the Filangieri Society for Justice and Good Government, an entity based in Monmouth Beach. If you check the organization's web site, it appears to be blank. Bad sign. It's probably just a phony front group run out of some guy's garage.
Just how stupid does this bogus Society (and/or the Kean campaign) think NJ's Italian-Americans are? Menendez obviously opposed Alito's nomination because Alito is an extremist right-winger, not because he is the wrong ethnic type.
Just as Junior is exploiting immigrant issues and smearing Mexicans and Mexican-Americans, he is attempting to exploit the fact that about 20% of New Jerseyans (as the card helpfully notes) are of Italian descent. Frankly, it seems vaguely creepy that some GOP goon (or computer) combed through voter lists for names that end with vowels.
pollster.com now allows blogs to embed a plot of Senate race polls. The individual points are from single polls, and the line is the average of five polls. You can control whether or not you want to see the individual polls, the average, or confidence intervals with check boxes.
The New York Times enthusiastically endorsed Senator Menendez on Monday. Not only did they say good things about him, they said some things about Junior, too. Great background material for talking with voters--especially those who are still on the fence.
Tom Kean Jr's latest ad features dark, grainy footage of border-crossing illegal immigrants right next to dark, grainy footage of Bob Menendez. Then it flips over to his pasty white happy family strolling on the beach. It's a simple compare and contrast.
Get the message? Bob Menendez is like the scary, brown people that want to destroy our country, our economy and our families and he wants to give them your money. Tom Kean Jr is the exact opposite. He'll keep you safe from those people. Pick a side.
Apparently I wasn't the only one who thought something was wrong with the ads:
Meanwhile, the nonpartisan National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials demanded that Kean withdraw a political commercial that shows Menendez alongside what it said were images of Latino immigrants running across the U.S. border.
"The tone and tenor of this ad exploits public fears and perpetuates ignorance about the impact of immigration on our nation. It also impairs responsible and civil dialogue about the most effective means to safeguard our national security," the organization said. It demanded the Kean campaign "disavow and withdraw the ad immediately."
Kean spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker said the ad shows illegal migrants running across the border. "Any suggestion that this ad has racial undertones is offensive," she said.
Any suggestion that Jill Hazelbaker should be taken seriously is offensive to me. Watch and decide for yourself:
A soon to be released Rasmussen poll has Bob Menendez leading Tom Kean Jr by 49%-44%. This was a one day poll of 500 likely voters on Oct 28. The previous poll on Oct 25 had the two tied at 45%. The Research 2000 poll earlier this week had Menenedez with a similar 6 point lead, 48%-42%.
Update: Strategic Vision (R) has Menendez ahead by just 1 point, 43%-42%. The previous SV poll had Kean leading by 5 points.
Update 2: Rumor has it the Quinnipiac poll to be released Tuesday morning will have Menendez ahead by 5 points. Indeed, Menenedez is ahead 49%-44%.
Update 3: CNN's poll gives Menendez a 7 point lead (51%-44%) among likely voters. (h/t to jrsydem)
The Republicans are going all over New Jersey telling people that the Democrats want to give Social Security benefits to illegal aliens. The Republican State Committee is sending out mailers, the RNC is putting up commercials, and Kean Jr is using this talking point to avoid giving his own plan -- on immigration or Social Security.
This is a hollow campaign tactic the Republicans are using around the country. Who else voted for the Senate ammendment? Republicans McCain, Hagel, Stevens, Lugar, Martinez, Graham, Specter, Chafee, and Voinovich. So what's this all about?
It's a part of a larger Republican strategy to privatize Social Security.
President Bush has announced his intentions, but he has some very hardened opinions to overcome. Americans don't trust him to fix Social Security. They think his party is ill-intentioned. So what do they do?
They plant the seeds of doubt early. They will ask, "You trust the Democrats on Social Security?! You know their plan is to give Social Security benefits to illegal immigrants? Don't you remember it from the campaign?"
In a report on NJN by Zachary Fink last night, they revealed that Tom Kean Sr, in an interview done earlier this year, has said the Iraq War was a mistake, putting him at odds with his son:
FINK (voiceover): In an interview last spring, Kean’s father, the former governor and chairman of the 9/11 commission, said he thought the war was a mistake.
Kean Sr (from April 7 sitdown with NJN): Iraq is a situation that’s developed after our action. We have to deal with that instability. But if you want to go back historically, that wasn’t the place to go.
FINK (voiceover): Kean has been campaigning with his father this fall but seems to have staked out a different position on Iraq.
FINK (today, outside statehouse): Was it a mistake?
Kean Jr: I will not be asking what ifs. It’s a disrespect to the troops who have their lives and sacrificed so much over the last several years. The important question is what’s next.
So Tom Kean Jr either believes his father (who is now a centerpiece of his campaign) is disrespecting our troops or he's being disengenuous and is just afraid to answer an important question.
A new DSCC poll hot off the presses this afternoon shows that Bob Menendez has opened up a 9-point lead over Tom Kean Jr., 45% - 36%. Bennett Petts & Blumenthal conducted the survey among 800 registered voters from October 23 to October 25, 2006. The margin of error was 3.5%.
This is at odds with today's Rasmussen poll pegging both candidates at 45%, including leaners, but is consistent with the Monmouth University poll also showing a 9 point lead for Menendez.
Update: New York Times poll just out disagrees and gives Menendez just a 1 point lead over Kean Jr among likely voters, 40%-39%.
Bob Corker was a fair candidate for the Senate from Tennessee: a loyal but cautious Republican with a built-in fundraising mechanism who's willing to hit the campaign trail. He's not somebody who excited the base, but they'd turn out for him (at least the national GOP kept telling themselves that).
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