Now, Palin's an attention-hog. But I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that her announcement took up less oxygen, and less time than Gov. Chris Christie's announcement yesterday - which clocked in at an astonishing 54 minutes.
Political operative Joshua Henne, who speaks for One New Jersey, the advocacy organization whose non-disclosure (similar in structure to non-disclosure groups serving Christie) I've expressed issue with as has Sen. Loretta Weinberg here, drew up a comparison between the Christie marathon and some other critical events in world history:
Shorter Than Christie's 54-Minute Vanity Press Conference
1. 17 minutes: Barack Obama's Inaugural Address
2. 44 minutes: Ronald Reagan's final State of the Union
3. 5 minutes, 16 sec: Lyndon Johnson tells America he won't seeking re-election
4. 2 minutes: Abraham Lincoln, Gettysburg Address
5. 10 seconds: Time it took Christie to veto millionaire's tax
6. 22 minutes: Time it takes to steam 5 lb. lobster (which multi-millionaires will be able to eat a lot more of since Christie vetoed the millionaire's tax)
OK, Christie is out, in what felt like a six week presser. So what's the impact of this on the GOP Presidential nomination race? Some ideas below, but looking for your ideas in the comments. Have at it!
1) Christie endorses Romney, and it's all over for the others. Just to note, Romney leads national polls again (with Cain in second place!) and Perry is dying a slow death Christie decided to avoid, so why not get on the bandwagon quickly like he did in 1999 with Bush? Since there are a lot of donors out there urging Christie to get in, their money has to go somewhere, and with Perry collapsing and Christie out Romney looks to gain.
2) With no bombastic screamer in the race (at least not to GOP levels now that Bachmann can't get on TV), Sarah Palin could decide to jump in just for shits and giggles. Suddenly the Tea Partiers who were holding their noses in support of Romney turn to Palin, and Romney's numbers cater. Now it is wide open again giving anyone a chance. Of course, as a result of this there's a Draft Christie movement again and we have to go through all this crap again.
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3) Palin gets in, caters Romney with her attacks, and suddenly Ron Paul looks like a rational maverick. Paul is up in the double digits now, and has been slowly growing his support. He loses Iowa, but wins in good ol' libertarian New Hampshire and suddenly everything is up for grabs. No one has the nomination sown up by convention time, so Christie is drafted to run.
No matter how you look at this (even if Chrisite gets in) it's fricking terrifying.
The little-legged Sarah Palin bouncing down the street. The GOP freak show outside Tony Randall's stately apartment building. Nice work, showing what Christie steps on in the street, and Plus, good job working in Bachmann 'n Pawlenty. But the best part? What's on the back of the bus motoring down 5th Avenue past Palin. From the communications shop at the NJ Dems:
Governor Christie may be a mean and heartless, and he has an ego the size of Mount Everest, so there's no doubt in my mind that he wants to be President. But he's also not stupid, and he knows that his chances are much better in 2016 than in 2012. But that can only happen if Barack Obama is re-elected next year.
If he runs for president now, Christie may fool many of the independent voters into supporting him due to the tepid performance by President Obama. But the governor knows that he will have difficulty with the radical base in the Republican Party. His appointment of a judge who happens to be a Muslim causes Republicans' heads to explode, and the fact that Christie is a northeasterner rubs many in the GOP the wrong way. A Christie entry into the 2012 presidential race would virtually guarantee the emergence of a third party radical Tea Partier which would split the Republican vote and give Obama a second term.
The biggest roadblock to an eventual Christie presidency would be the election of a Republican in 2012. Waiting to the end of a second Obama term in 2016 might seem to be a long time in political life, but the potential of a two-term Republican would leave Christie out of the picture until 2020 - an eternity in American electoral gamesmanship.
So why would 2016 be any different than 2012? Christie may be counting on the American public and mainstream media waking up and realizing that the Tea Party is an extremist cult, whose members follow their leaders blindly even if it is against their self-interest. And like most cults, the Tea Party will self-destruct over the next few years.
So instead of running now, Christie is pandering to all factions in the Republican Party, fundraising and generating IOUs for future support. Like Sarah Palin, he is leveraging the idolatry from the press to his advantage. He will most certainly endorse the eventual candidate, but look for him to promote himself more than the candidate as he hits the campaign trail. And look for that little smirk on the SOB's face when Barack Obama gets re-elected.
Ironically but not surprisingly, Sarah Palin and a good number of those on the right like to address their crowds, who have increasingly been playing dress-up as "patriots" (and not in the Tom Brady kind of way), as "Real Americans™". They talk about "the tree of liberty", "patriotism" and any number of cherry picked or out-of-context quotes from the Founding Fathers or the Bible. Yet when it comes to actions, what we see from her, Scott Garrett, Chris Christie, Eric Cantor, many on the right (and a growing number on the "left" as well) is just the opposite of what a "real American" is.
Real Americans don't vote for $50 billion in Iraq "reconstruction" like Eric Cantor, Scott Garrett and so many Republicans did with no strings attached, yet demand more cuts here in America to help those in need after devastating earthquakes and hurricanes.
Fake Patriots like Chris Christie and so many Republicans talk about cutting Medicare and social security benefits for those who desperately need them, cloaking it as "reform", while turning their nose up at raising the social security wage limit to address the most regressive tax in this country.
Governor Christie, who displays a number of skills including his ability to communicate, is an abject failure as an administrator. It is helpful to be able to talk a good game that impresses certain voters and others living outside our state, but ultimately he sits atop an administration of departments and agencies which provide or fail to provide the services that New Jerseyans seek.
For anyone who's ever wanted to pour their fury at Chris Christie into a live mic with a captive press watching on, this one's totally for you.
I did this video for Millennium Radio where I'm the new Democratic political blogger and commenter. For anyone whos interested that's where I'll be moon-lighting from now on, mostly at their blog State House Steps.
(We dished. The biggest target was Alex DeCroce and his wife, Betty Lou who have turned your tax dollars into a multi-million dollar lifestyle complete with multiple pensions and a Florida mansion. - promoted by Jay Lassiter)
Each week, Blue Jersey Radio streams LIVE with NJ's latest political buzz, interviews with newsmakers + your stimulating calls. Call-in Number: (646) 652-2773
This Week: Jeff and I welcome Assemblyman Peter Barnes, the newly minted Chairman of the Judiciary Committee. BlueJersey was a loud and vocal critic of the choice, obviously preferring one of Barnes's more liberal colleagues. That prompted the Assemblyman to introduce himself (and his progressive bona fides) to the BlueJersey community. That's what's on tap for tonight.
Our call-in guests help make this show great and we love it when callers share their questions and their wisdom with us. That number again is (646) 652-2773 and we want you to call. So join us tonight for 30 minutes of BlogtalkRadio Bliss.
My organization, the New Jersey Public Interest Research Group (NJPIRG), recently released a report with the National Taxpayers Union (NTU) proposing $600 billion in federal budget cuts. The NTU is a group that often disagrees with us, and our goal was to create some early consensus on specific budget cuts that target waste, inefficiency, and corporate handouts in the federal government. The report is here.
Everyone knows the federal deficit is important. Yet polls like this show that the deficit continues to be a low priority for Americans.
President Obama's fiscal commission did not quite achieve the super majority vote required to prompt direct congressional action on implementing budget reform. This means that now, more than ever, it is critical for Americans (and New Jerseyans) to press their federal representatives to take serious action.
Yet New Jersey is struggling with many economic problems of its own, and it can be tough to look past city and state budget crises. Yet as long as we put off fixing the federal budget, we will continue to waste our tax dollars, and money that could be used for helpful services or creating solvency will end up in irresponsible subsidies or inefficient programs. What does the Blue Jersey community think about this? Have any of you experienced direct consequences stemming from our federal budget deficit? How can we make the federal deficit a New Jersey priority?
Democrat John Adler is my congressman. At least he will be for another month. This Harvard-educated lawyer with a career full of legislative experience was defeated by an ex-football player who raises donkeys for a living.
It's not every day that an Assemblyman resigns, effective immediately. But that's what happened yesterday in Nutley, NJ where Assemblyman Fred Scalera gave his two weeks notice to move on to brighter, more lucrative pa$ture$.
The ink on his resignation letter was barely dry when praise from his Democratic colleagues began to flow. Words like "service" and "selfless" were lavished on the former Assemblymen from folks like Joe Cryan, Paul Sarlo, John McKeon and even speaker Sheila Oliver who lined to shower on the praise for his commitment to his constituents.
So when did quitting your job -- and your constituents -- half way though a commitment become this cool? Can we at least save the effusive praise for folks who actually follow through on their promises?
At first blush, a comparison of Chris Christie and Sarah Palin might seem odd. One is a former beauty queen who dresses to the nines, and the other is a former prosecutor who would never be mistaken for <insert name of male Hollywood star>.
Yet, on the political stage, they share similar traits and approaches. Both favor style over substance. Palin extols her ersatz "Mama Grizzly" characteristic, both in her campaign appearances and in the free political advertising she is given in her TV series about Alaska. Similarly, Christie leverages his "tough guy" image - usually in front of friendly crowds at his town hall meetings. Both are idolized by their respective constituencies and can do no wrong in the eyes of their supporters. Both use their offspring as props to score political points - Palin exploiting her handicapped son and Christie incessantly repeating the story about how his daughter Bridgette laments the actions of her (private school) teachers due to budget cuts.
News of the Vice-President Governor of Alaska right-wing media darling came via Americans for Prosperity, the national conservative advocacy group which is led in New Jersey by former Governor's candidate Steve Lonegan.
Asbury Park Press is reporting Palin and the rest of the Tea Party Express will be in front of the Toms River Town Hall on Washington Street 8pm Sunday.
All signs are pointing to a Chris Christie campaign to be on the 2012 presidential ticket. He has started this campaign already by crisscrossing the country to promote Republican candidates in state-wide races. But up until recently, he has not proactively promoted the conservative social agenda. Yes, he is anti-choice and against marriage equality, but he has not yet pursued these measures with the same "in-your-face" approach as he has with his vendetta against public education and teachers. He is aware of the large number of his New Jersey constituents who still want social justice, and is more circumspect with regard to promoting the conservative line on women's issues and gay rights. His relatively low-key approach is most likely designed to avoid firing up the opposition and maintaining as low a profile as he can here. But to become a national figure, Christie needs to demonstrate his embrace of the right-wing social agenda.
Christie's approach to implementing the conservative platform is not subtle, but more incremental. He pleased his base by vetoing a $7.5 million bill for women's health services even as he approved a gigantic tax cut for millionaires. Now, he is embracing another Palinesque initiative - abstinence education. Despite the fact that our schools are in dire financial straits and that it has been shown that such initiatives do nothing to stem the rates of teenage pregnancy, the Governor is promoting a $1 million program to tell teenagers to "just say no".
Ratcheting up the right wing agenda is not the only sign that Christie has national ambitions. If you think his gallivanting around the country is limited to the upcoming elections, you are mistaken. He is already on the post-election tea party lecture circuit.
It has often been said that every state governor has presidential ambitions, and it's difficult to find a politician more ambitious than Chris Christie. And there are lots of reasons for him to make his move in 2012.
Given the secret funding of Republican candidates by shadow groups, the fact that the GOP has a propaganda arm in Fox News that is second to none, including Pravda, and the fact that the 2012 election will be the first under the census redistricting controlled mostly by Republican governors, there's a good chance that Barack Obama will be a one-term president. If Christie is not on the 2012 ticket, his next chance to run for national office could potentially be 2020 - a lifetime in presidential politics. Sure, he'll be only 58 years old then, but he will have had a much longer track record of mistakes and miscues than he has today. And the demographics of the electorate will be different, with a larger percentage of the non-white population included in the mix.
So is Christie aiming for the top slot, or looking to become Joe Biden's successor? The way the stars are aligned today, it seems unlikely that he would be successful in challenging Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, or Mike Huckabee. But why would someone as ambitious as Christie settle for the number two spot? This question can be answered in two words: Dick Cheney. Cheney was the second in command to a weak, clueless, and gaffe-prone George W Bush. Christie may view himself in the same powerful role under a President Palin. And without any debilitating health problems like those that plagued Mr. Cheney, Christie would then be viable as a 2020 candidate at the top of the ticket. Of course, there's plenty of time for the top contenders to stumble, leaving room for the Meshuggineh from Mendham to step in.
The only significant impediment to a Christie run is his lack of foreign policy experience. To the xenophobic Tea Party, this is not a significant issue because diplomacy requires nuance, and the GOP does not do nuance. But it might be an important issue to the rest of the electorate, especially given that we will still be in combat in Afghanistan and Iraq, and possibly Pakistan, when the election comes around. So watch for Christie to ramp up his foreign policy creds - perhaps by participating in missions abroad to promote New Jersey business, or perhaps by participating on foreign junkets with some of his congressional friends. Such actions would confirm his desire to be on the 2012 ticket.
Christie is smart to lay back and let the big guns fight it out right now. But don't be surprised to see our absentee governor vacationing in Iowa or New Hampshire next year.
Each week, Blue Jersey Radio streams LIVE with Jersey's latest political buzz, interviews with newsmakers, and your stimulating calls Number: (646) 652-2773.
Tonight we'll learn all about Douglas Herbert's bid to unseat Rodney Frelinghuysen in NJ-11. In the meantime, even if you live outside NJ's 11th Congressional district, you can join Douglas Herbert's FaceBook group and help spread the word. Or, check out his website.
You won't want to miss an episode - and of course, you never have to. Listen to them all on Blogtalkradio, or download any show on iTunes.
All the Tea Party Ladies - Sarah Palin of Alaska formerly of Alaska, who stumped for O'Donnell. O'Donnell from Delaware. Anna Little from New Jersey. And Sharron Angle from Nevada, riding into Jersey tomorrow to campaign for Little. 'Tea Party-Approved' Anna Little is the Highlands Mayor who won a primary against better-funded establishment candidate Diane Gooch. And that makes her the GOP nominee opposing long-time NJ-6 Congressman Frank Pallone, charging at him from the far-rightiest right.
And tomorrow - perfect Tea Party Lady timing - Little has one of the biggest names in the Tea Party universe coming to campaign with her: Sharron Angle. You have to think Little and Angle are both going to have a contact high from O'Donnell's Tea Party win thisclose to NJ-6. And Little, way less famous than Harry Reid's GOP challenger, will get her chance to stand next to the woman Rachel Maddow calls crazy lady Sharron Angle, the Nevada curiosity who famously runs from reporters at her own press conference.
Christie v. Palin - Also interesting, the stakes - now the losing stakes - for our own Gov. Chris Christie, who trucked his GOP wattage down to Delaware a few days ago in an early lending of his popularity to another state's candidate (a rehearsal for Iowa). He chose the loser; the more moderate Rep. Mike Castle, who was seeking to move up to more rarified congressional air.
In fact, our friend Darryl R. Isherwood wisely pegged the Castle-O'Donnell matchup as really a contest of bigger names: Christie v. Palin. Tonight: good night for Palin. Christie, not so much. Weird day tomorrow in NJ-6.
Tomorrow: Little and Angle are both hot for more off-shore oil drilling (yes, really). They oppose a woman's right to choose and want a full repeal of national health care. So, don't be surprised if you're driving by the Copper Canyon Restaurant in Atlantic Highlands, where Little & Angle will be tomorrow around 12:45pm and you see labor folks, environmentalists, health care folks, women's rights advocates. You could stop your car and join them, actually.
Did you miss last night's scintillating edition of BlueJerseyRadio? You know, the one where Jeff and I served up the pithiest political dish in the land? The one with chairman John Wisniewski rallying the troops to keep flogging Governor Christie whose latest hissy cost New Jersey students nearly a half billion dollars?
Each week, Blue Jersey Radio streams LIVE with Jersey's latest political buzz, interviews with newsmakers, and your stimulating calls Number: (646) 652-2773.
Our guest, Assemblyman John S. Wisneiwski represents Sayreville in the NJ Assembly. He's also chairman of the NJ State Democratic Committee and that's the hat he'll be wearing tonight. After all, who better to discuss the ongoing SchundlerGate (tm) story than the party's partisan-in-chief, John Wisniewski?
Jeff and I welcome your calls -- especially if your name is Bret Schundler --as we unravel the complicated layers of Governor Christie's colossal $400,000,000 school-funding hissy fit. So if you're in the mood to pile on, won't you join us? at (646) 652-2773.
So, tune in tonight and every Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. to laugh so hard you're friends will be jealous. Seriously. You won't want to miss an episode - and of course, you never have to. Listen to them all on Blogtalkradio, or download any show on iTunes.
We understand if you're left feeling a bit jilted which is why I'd love to invite you to come onto BlueJerseyRadio this Tuesday at 8pm. Consider this an open invitation to come to unburden yourself to an appreciative crowd. It's easy to be a guest, just call into the show (646) 652-2773 any time between 8-8:30pm this Tuesday.
Basically, we empathize with you. So if you're looking for a warm place to cultivate your hard-earned feelings of vengeance, just know this much: you'll always have a wide-open forum on Blue Jersey Radio.
