Liveblogging Obama-McCain, Debate #1

by: Martin

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:28:20 PM EDT

Rate comments, so you can judge the quality of comments! -- huntsu

Evening, Blue Jersey. Can't sleep either? Well, please roll over, pass the remote, and watch the debate with me.

Some of my best memories on Blue Jersey are from liveblogging various important political events: Andrews vs. Lautenberg in the primary, Corzine's state of the union addresses, and so forth.

Anyone up for contributing to a liveblog of Obama and McSame this evening? I'll contribute some thoughts as I watch. You know the time: 9:00 p.m. on many t.v. channels, local and cable.

Go Obama!

One hundred days out: The state of the Presidential race in New Jersey

by: Hopeful

Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 10:32:29 AM EDT

As in recent Presidential elections, our neighbors New York and Delaware are not competitive, but recent polls show a significant Obama (+8.3) lead in Pennsylvania.  If the Pennsylvania results hold up, the nearest battleground states for New Jerseyans willing to travel will be Virginia and Ohio.  

Over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver is simulating the November election.  Taking into account the New Jersey polls, the nationa polls, and demographic models, New Jersey has a 91% chance of voting for Obama in November.  (This is a recent improvement after staying in 80s for most of the summer.)  The simulation also says we are not worth investing in, and have virtually no chance of being the key 270th electoral vote for either candidate.  

Overall, despite New Jersey voters' preference for Hillary Clinton and John McCain in the primaries, our state seems to have become even more solidly "blue" for Barack Obama.  I wonder if we will even see the usual scare when polls seem offer a brief hope for the Republican.

Poll of New Jersey: Presidential Race is Tied

by: Hopeful

Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 11:27:09 AM EDT

One notable result is that the percentage of people who view McCain favorably is 61, Obama 58, and Clinton 50.  Obama has been improving, Clinton falling, and McCain remaining the same.  No doubt we can look forward to the negative ads New Jerseyans have learned to expect to drag all these down.

The Ramussen Markets data show that bettors believe the Republicans have an 24% chance to win New Jersey's Electoral Votes, so if you really think McCain will win you have a chance to make a lot of money.  

Blue Jersey, are you as sick as I am of Ralph Nader? He's running for president again.

by: Steven Goldstein, Garden State Equality chair

Sun Feb 24, 2008 at 10:31:14 AM EST

Twenty-One Primary Elections on February 5, and that's just New Jersey

by: Hopeful

Wed Jan 23, 2008 at 03:53:49 PM EST

In Jersey, we've been told there is "a" primary coming up, but there are actually twenty primaries happening on February 5.  Each of these primaries occur in a "Delegate District," which is two of the familiar "Legislative Districts" combined.  For example, I'm in Delegate District Two, which is LD3 (Sweeney's) and LD4 (Madden's) combined.  Each district elects three or four delegates to the national convention. Now the LDs have (roughly) equal population, but the districts that have fewer Democratic voters only get three delegates.  Each of these are truly separate primaries, in the sense that if Hillary Clinton turns out a crushing victory in District 20, it has the same effect in my district as her votes in Los Angeles:  None whatsoever.   There's a total of 70 delegates at stake in these twenty elections.

Note that at the end of the day, outcomes like a 5% win or a 10% win in votes may not be reflected at the district level.  In a three delegate district, I think there are realistically only two possible outcomes:  Either Clinton-Obama-Edwards tie with one each, or one of the them gets two, one gets one, and the other gets nothing.  A candidate gets nothing if "he" fails to get 15% of the votes (I don't think that will happen to "she").   A four delegate district, however, could realistically split 2-2-0 or 3-1-0 or 2-1-1.  As the district results are added up, it's possible that just as in the early states, a small lead by one candidate is not reflected in the delegate totals.  Obama's counterintuitive Nevada result was powered by a small victory in an odd delegate district while splitting even-delegate districts by not losing by too many votes.  

Live-Blogging the NJ GOP Debate/Straw Poll

by: Thurman Hart

Sat Jan 19, 2008 at 10:36:58 AM EST

Novick says there were 207 total votes (I'm only counting 176). Duncan Hunter's votes aren't included below...he got about 7 votes, plus some people may have left early.

Ron Paul: 72.7% (128)
Fred Thompson: 15.3% (27)
Rudy 9ui11iani: 8.0% (14)
Mike Huckabee: 2.3% (4)
John McCain: 1.1% (2)
Barack Obama: 0.6% (1) (Joey Novick, who paid to attend the straw poll, wrote in a vote for Obama, though they did not announce it in the totals.)

Ever wonder what the other side is doing?  Joey Novick is going to tell us.

Will Rudy pull his fat out of the fire - or is he fried?

Update (Juan) - some fun tidbits:

Question: Should we be in The UN? "Sabrin: "Paul supports withdrawing from the UN, and making them condos on the east river. That will handle the homeless problem in NYC."
[...]
Huckabee on UN withdrawal: "About the UN. It needs to reigned in, We pay too much. We need to make the oil rich nations to pay more. I work in midtown NYC. And I can't get to my office when the NYC police are escorting someone from an oil rich nation to the UN, who is going to criticize us. That has got to stop."

National Popular Vote coming to New Jersey?

by: JRB

Thu Jun 14, 2007 at 11:08:06 AM EDT

The Senate State Government Committee will consider legislation that would require New Jersey's electoral votes to be cast for the candidate who wins the national popular vote, not necessarily the statewide count in New Jersey. S-2695, sponsored by State Senators Richard Codey and Raymond Lesniak, seeks to include New Jersey in an "Agreement Among the States to Elect the President by National Popular Vote" ...

Read about the plan in former Senator Birch Bayh's Blue Jersey op-ed, 'A Fifty State Strategy Every Year.' He even mentioned Codey's call to make New Jersey a "Presidential Player" rather than "an ATM machine." The op-ed is pasted below the fold.

New Jersey's Pols: Backing the Wrong Horses?

by: mikeshapiro

Wed Apr 11, 2007 at 11:15:57 PM EDT

Officials of both political parties should have learned a lesson from 2004 when key Democratic politicians, including Governor Jim McGreevey, jumped on board with Governor Howard Dean, only to see Dean implode soon thereafter, leaving them with little influence over Senator John Kerry, the eventual Democratic nominee.  Apparently, those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.  Approximately one month ago, a long line of Republican officials publicly announced their support for Rudy Guliani for President.  Recently, a significant contingent of Democratic officials, including Governor Corzine, publicly backed Senator Hillary Clinton for President.  Both groups of elected officials will find themselves on the outside looking in should the political winds afoot blow in an unexpected but likely direction.

PoliticsNJ: Codey to Endorse Edwards

by: Jersey Boy

Wed Feb 28, 2007 at 03:47:05 PM EST

Former Gov. Richard Codey will endorse John Edwards for the Democratic presidential nomination, and will chair the Edwards campaign in New Jersey. Codey, the Senate President, met privately with Edwards on Monday.

"How do you not want this guy running our country?"

by: JRB

Mon Feb 26, 2007 at 04:10:07 PM EST

"He didn't vote for the war, didn't apologize for it, and is more seasoned than the rest of 2008 prospect," said Gusciora, a six-term Democrat from Princeton.  "Now he has an Oscar and a Nobel Peace Prize nomination. How do you not want this guy running our country?"

Gusciora was the first New Jersey elected official to endorse Howard Dean in 2004 -- almost a year before the state political establishment jumped on board.

Op-Ed: A Fifty State Strategy Every Year

by: Birch Bayh

Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 08:33:01 AM EST

Howard Dean's 'Fifty State Strategy' was controversial enough for a midterm election, as some party leaders feared it would "squander" the resources needed to win seats. Now, throw a presidential race into the mix -- a time when both parties siphon their resources into the handful of battleground states that sway the Electoral College. What good is a fifty state strategy when 60,000 votes in Ohio are more influential than 1.5 million nationwide?

This limited strategy requires that candidates running for the nation's highest office completely ignore three-quarters of the states, including the three most populous: California, Texas, and New York. Democrats and Republicans alike should ask, 'Why are our national leaders elected by only reaching out to a fraction of our states?' It seems inherently illogical, and it is.

The Electoral College has outlived whatever positive role it once played as a choice of convenience and compromise. Long overdue, the President and Vice President should be chosen by the same method every other elective office in this country is filled-by citizen voters of the United States in a system which counts each vote equally.

I have felt this way for some time. 30 years ago last month, I introduced a proposed Amendment to the Constitution to abolish the Electoral College and provide for direct election of the President and Vice President. As Chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Constitutional Amendments, I held hearings, received testimony from 38 witnesses (not to mention hundreds of pages of additional statements and academic studies), and amassed nearly 2,600 pages of research on the need for electoral reform.

To me and others involved with this process, it became clear that while the Founding Founders had incredible wisdom and foresight, they were dealing with a much different society. The Electoral College was designed for the realities of their time, not ours.

Straight Talk Express Bogs Down In Jersey GOP Swamp

by: huntsu

Wed Feb 07, 2007 at 10:19:25 AM EST

The only problem is PoliticsNJ reports half of these good ol' partiers haven't committed to backing the great Maverick, but have determined to keep their powder dry for the time being.

Here's the list of Republican-Americans McCain claims, with the ones who remain on-board in italics and the ones who have chosen not to take the bus in bold.

Senate

• Peter Inverso (Mercer and Middlesex Counties)
• Bill Gormley (Atlantic County)

Assembly

• Bill Baroni (Mercer and Middlesex)
• Jennifer Beck (Monmouth)
• Francis Blee (Atlantic)
• Jon Bramnick (Union, Essex, and Morris) -- backing Guiliani
• Steve Corodemus (Monmouth)
• Amy Handlin (Monmouth and Middlesex) -- backing Guiliani
• Sean Kean (Monmouth)
• Samuel Thompson (Monmouth and Middlesex)

Many folks have noted that McCain's vaunted reputation for honesty and independence has taken hits as he waffles about how many troops to go into Iraq and sucks up to right wing ideologues and charlatans he previously considered uncouth.  This inability to put out a straightforward release about supporters just furthers the story that McCain is either befuddled or brown-nosing and isn't at all what the media portrays him ass.

An ATM, a Reduced Delegation, or Both?

by: JRB

Mon Jan 22, 2007 at 05:09:17 PM EST

All of these states, who are moving up early, want to play and have an impact. But oddly enough, it ultimately will limit the legitimate candidate choices for the nation at large in the primary process.

The move would reduce the size of state's delegation by as much as 30% as a penalty for moving their primaries to the first Tuesday in February. California is among the state's considering a February 5, 2008 primary; the California Senate President and Assembly Speaker have asked Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean to reject the proposal.

But if the move came at the expense of the size of the convention delegation, it could reduce New Jersey's role in Presidential politics.

In the first place, if California, Michigan, North Carolina, Missouri, and Delaware all move their primaries to February 5 (the earliest any states can move up), New Jersey will be competing with several major players and their cheaper media markets. And this doesn't include Florida and other Western states that are also rumbling about a move.

Not to mention the dynamic of this particular presidential year. Some, like National Journal's Chuck Todd, are suggesting that the presence of two or three heavyweights could lead to extremely well-financed campaign organizations  with no quit in them -- leading to a delegate fight at the national convention.

If New Jersey sacrifices a chunk of its delegation for a handful of campaign stops and maybe a few million dollars in additional revenue, will it be worth it?

Three Supervillains No Match for President Bush

by: dfa_lewis

Tue May 02, 2006 at 10:24:47 AM EDT

The arrival of the supervillain group, which also includes supporters Ursa and Non, had been predicted in 1980 by the motion picture Superman II. The group blamed their late arrival on "enhanced security" in their two-dimensional prison.

Asked about his future plans, General Zod said he would work on "election reform" in support of his 2008 presidential campaign. The general, who plans to run as an independent, said he was concerned about "irregularities in [the] 2000 and 2004" presidential elections, as well as a "lack of ballot access to third-party candidates."

On the web:
http://www.zod2008.com/
http://www.generalzod.net/