Have You Written to Your Elected Officials Lately?

by: jeffpickens

Mon Feb 14, 2011 at 07:56:07 PM EST

Well, glad to see Gov. Christie's getting some mileage out of his self-serving videos at taxpayer expense. - promoted by Rosi

Have You Written to Your Elected Officials Lately? I have.

Recently I wrote to the triumvirate who represent my Legislative District, #4: Senator Fred Madden (D), Assemblyman Paul Moriarty (D), Assemblyman Domenick DiCicco Jr (R), along with Washington Twp Mayor Matthew Lyons (D). The subject was the growing number of once-thriving, now vacant, retail properties in the Township (which will be a topic for a future diary).

I received two responses: one from Mayor Lyons, who thanked me for my concerns and suggested that I attend the next planning meeting . The other was from Assemblyman DiCicco, the sole Republican Legislator in my District, who expressed that he shared my concerns, and included the usual Republican boilerplate about making NJ more business-friendly. I believe he was sincere. I am disappointed by the silence form the two Democrats who represent my District, especially Mr. Moriarty, who is a Township resident and former mayor. At least Mr. DiCicco had the decency to respond. Perhaps he is the only one who realizes that he is up for re-election this year, and re-election is not a given.

I also wrote to the Governors office, one sentence:

"When can we expect the Governor to unveil his 2012 budget proposal?"

his reply below

Rating How Competitive New Jersey Congressional Districts Are: Nate Silver's PPI Index

by: Hopeful

Fri Jul 30, 2010 at 12:53:57 PM EDT

Here's Silver's idea:

Are there any systematic differences in the ways that votes tend to fall for the Congress, as opposed to the Presidency? Are certain districts better or worse for Democrats, or Republicans, than PVI alone would suggest?

It turns out that there's one other factor which is fairly useful to look at, which is socioeconomic status. Relative to how they do for the Presidency, Democrats are somewhat more likely to win races for Congress in poorer districts, and somewhat more likely to lose them in wealthier ones. Another way to put this is that a split ticket of Republican for President, Democrat for Congress is more likely to occur in a poor district, whereas a split ticket of Democrat for President, Republican for Congress is more likely to occur in a wealthy one.

Click through for the statistical analysis he uses. Silver expresses his PPI index as the chance for Democrats to win an open seat in an average election cycle, based solely on two factors: the recent Presidential Vote and the percentage of the population with incomes under $25,000/yr.  Here are the results for New Jersey:

District	Name	PVI	PPI
NJ11	Frelinhguysen	R+7	2.5%
NJ5	Garrett	R+7	3.2%
NJ4	Smith	R+6	10.9%
NJ7	Lance	R+3	13.9%
NJ3	Adler	R+1	27.9%
NJ12	Holt	D+5	62.9%
NJ2	LoBiondo	D+1	66.0%
NJ6	Pallone	D+8	85.2%
NJ9	Rothman	D+9	88.8%
NJ8	Pascrell	D+10	96.6%
NJ1	Andrews	D+12	97.0%
NJ13	Sires	D+21	99.95%
NJ10	Payne	D+33	99.998%

The main lesson, if you take this ratings seriously, is that New Jersey's wealth makes the battleground Congressional districts lean Republican compared to how they vote at the Presidential level. In many states, the R+3 and even the R+7 districts have a great chance of going Democratic at the Congressional level, but here NJ5 and NJ7 are actually quite unfavorable, and should vote for the House like R+14 districts in the rest of the country. When we evaluate how our candidates did, it's worth keeping this effect in mind.

Frank LoBiondo's district is the poorest in New Jersey, and by this measure is slightly better for Democrats than Holt's district, but we are stuck with the echo of 1994. In case it's not obvious, being an incumbent matters, scandals matter, and cycles can be more or less Republican than the average cycle, and you should always remember that the most likely outcome doesn't always happen. All of our 2010 races have incumbents so the percentages definitely do not apply. Also, this is the last election in the current districts.

Smith called a model of public service

by: Jason Springer

Thu Nov 12, 2009 at 02:15:00 PM EST

It is men and women like Bart Stupak and Chris Smith who are the models of public service for all Catholics and other Christians.

By late Monday, Democratic Rep. Diana DeGette of Colorado had collected more than 40 signatures from fellow members who vowed they would not vote for a combined House-Senate health care bill if it contains language "that restricts women's right to choose any further than current law."

... And the Rest

by: Blue Jersey

Wed Nov 12, 2008 at 02:10:01 PM EST

With the Obama campaign sucking up so much of the oxygen (and money, and energy, and ultimately the very PA-bound volunteers themselves), most of what was left over was focused on the "hot" races in NJ-3, NJ-5, and NJ-7. Like so often in the past, if you weren't running in one of the hot races, then you found yourself with scant attention being paid to your campaign.

In the case of Senator Lautenberg, and our 7 Democratic House incumbents, no news was good news. New Jersey's voters delivered a solid double-digit win to its senior Senator, and sent the Magnificent 7 back to Washington with an average margin of victory of over 40%. But for Congressional Challengers in NJ-2, NJ-4, and NJ-11, it was a different story altogether.

We look at each of these races in more detail below the fold.  

Prediction Thread!

by: huntsu

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:27:58 PM EST

PRESIDENT:
Obama:    %
McCain:    %

US SENATE:
Lautenberg:    %
Zimmer:    %

NJ3
Adler:   %
Meyers:   %

NJ4
Zeitz:   %
Smith:   %

NJ5
Shulman:   %
Garrett:   %

NJ7
Stender:   %
Lance:    %

NJ4: Josh Zeitz's new radio ad

by: Hopeful

Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:50:28 AM EDT

The Money Battle -- Republican and Open Seats

by: huntsu

Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 08:33:09 PM EDT

The middle column shows where we are doing better than the Republican.  You expect that Dems would do well in NJ1 (see notes below about what a joke NJ1 is), but we are winning the money game in NJ3 and NJ7 as well -- overwhelmingly.

Cand.	2Q$	CoH	Adv	Cand.	2Q$	CoH
Andrews (NJ1)	$72,240	$15,611		Glading (NJ1)	TBA	TBA
Kurkowski (NJ2)	$172,772	$89,773		LoBiondo (NJ2)	$205,422	$1,491,954
Adler (NJ3)	$738,683	$1,463,747		Myers (NJ3)	$241,762	$155,406
Zeitz (NJ4)	$114,053	$124,535		Smith (NJ4)	$143,300	$503,944
Shulman (NJ5)	$234,249	$258,381		Garret (NJ5)	$293,963	$649,003
Stender (NJ7)	$494,265	$1,100,000		Lance (NJ7)	$191,107	$80,792
Wyka (NJ11)	$11,112	$15,540		Hot Rod (NJ11)	$121,330	$717,893

One source of mystery is Dale Glading, who is running in NJ1 against the alleged candidate Camille Andrews (whose fundraising once again demonstrates she is not a real candidate).

A search for Glading, Republican, NJ, House on FEC.gov produces no results for contributions or disbursements of any kind.  No July Quarterly report has been filed, but at the least as of primary day Glading had raised no money.

That means, as near as I can tell, there are no real candidates running in NJ1.  Sheesh.

Update: This is updated to include the pre-primary filing numbers.  The CoH numbers were accurate last night, but after the comments it was updated to include the whole quarter.

Democratic registration surges

by: Juan Melli

Tue May 27, 2008 at 04:26:26 PM EDT

Over half a million voters registered as Democrats since late 2007. The 512,508 newly-registered Democrats represents a 48% increase in registered Democrats in New Jersey. In 2007, 24.9% of registered voters were declared Democrats while 19.3% were Republicans. Today, 35.8% are Democrats and 22.2% are Republicans. Unaffiliated and other voters dropped from 54.2% to 42%.

Thanks to the surge in partisan affiliation, Democrats now hold a partisan registration advantage in four additional Congressional districts that were previously dominated by Republicans: NJ-2 (LoBiondo (R)), NJ-3 (Saxton (R)), NJ-4 (Smith (R)), NJ-7 (Ferguson (R)). That advantage will be incredibly helpful for GOTV efforts, especially in the very competitive 3rd and 7th districts.

The greatest gains for Democrats came in NJ-3, NJ-4, NJ-11 and NJ-12 which each saw Democratic registration increase  by over 60%. Republicans now hold a partisan registration advantage in just two districts: NJ-5 (Garrett (R)) and NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen (R)). In the 5th, the Republican registration advantage dropped from about 51,000 to 31,000 and in the 11th it dropped from about 66,000 to 46,000.

"This is more than a trend, it's a remarkable increase in Democratic voters that will have a lasting impact," said Democratc State Committee chairman Joe Cryan. "The people can't wait to bring the Bush era to an end and the best way to do that is to elect Democrats. It's not enough that the Bush Administration is coming to a close, the voters are rejecting everything with the Republican brand name."

Republican registration increased by a more modest 18% which means the partisan advantage for Democrats more than doubled from 240,089 to 600,723.

NJ-4:Chris Smith-Fact 35: His Vote Nixed Troop Bonuses

by: Ian Reifowitz

Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 11:35:31 AM EDT

I'll post the text of this first one here.

Chris Smith cast the deciding vote against pay bonuses for our troops serving overseas, while voting annually for huge Congressional pay raises.

More after the jump.

Trenton Times covered Carol Gay's women's groups endorsements

by: kwilkinson

Mon Nov 06, 2006 at 12:07:17 AM EST

Democratic candidate wins endorsements

Friday, November 03, 2006

With only days before the election, 4th District Congressional candidate Carol Gay has received several endorsements from local women's groups.

The pro-choice Democrat, who is running for her first elected office, has been endorsed by the National Organization for Women, NARAL Pro Choice America and Planned Parenthood Action Fund.

In endorsing Gay, Planned Parenthood lauded her support of women's rights and her advocacy of affordable reproductive health care. The group also took a political shot at Gay's opponent, incumbent Chris Smith, a Republican from Hamilton, who is a staunchly pro-life candidate.

The group criticized Smith for his positions on family planning and birth control, as well as for his pro-life stance.

The groups aren't local, they are national, and what exactly was the political shot?

This is a partial answer to my question how to tell 65,000 to 100,000 women in the 4th district that their congressman wants to take away their birth control pills?.  Put it together with today's OC Observer endorsement, and that's definitely some good news.

"Linda Gay" Trenton Times Voter Guide Gets Carol Gay's NAME Wrong!!!

by: kwilkinson

Sun Nov 05, 2006 at 01:13:33 AM EST

In the 4th Congressional District, two candidates are facing off for the two-year-term.  Incumbent Republican Chris Smith is vying for his 14th term in Congress, while Democratic challenger Linda Gay seeks her first elected office.

Chris is courageous. Linda, aka Carol, doesn't know how to pay for universal healthcare.  Pic of Smith, none of Carol. Get the full story tomorrow, if they aren't shamed into correcting it, at least on line.

Trenton Times readers and New Jerseyians need to demand better! 

help for SJ races from military papers editorial, calling for Rummy's firing

by: kwilkinson

Sat Nov 04, 2006 at 11:47:15 AM EST

Papers sold to military: "Rumsfeld must go"

Editorial comes days after Bush affirms defense secretary's job security

Just days after President Bush publicly affirmed Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's job security through the end of his term, a family of publications catering to the military will publish an editorial calling for the defense secretary's removal.

The editorial ... stated, "It is one thing for the majority of Americans to think Rumsfeld has failed. But when the nation's current military leaders start to break publicly with their defense secretary, then it is clear that he is losing control of the institution he ostensibly leads."

The editorial will appear just one day before the midterm election, in which GOP candidates have been losing ground, according to recent polls

"This is not about the midterm elections," continued the editorial, which will appear in the Army Times, Air Force Times, Navy Times, and Marine Corps Times on Monday. "Regardless of which party wins Nov. 7, the time has come, Mr. President, to face the hard bruising truth: Donald Rumsfeld must go."

The newspapers are part of the Military Times Media Group, a subsidiary of the Gannett Co., Inc. The publications are sold to service members and their families...

My friend who's a military wife assures me this is a big deal for military families.

next in the series of wrong endorsements in the 4th

by: kwilkinson

Thu Nov 02, 2006 at 01:53:21 AM EST

worked hard to get new sensing equipment installed in the Trenton Regional Post Office in Hamilton, after that facility was contaminated by letters containing deadly anthrax in 2001. Trenton Times

For all you Lakoff 'framing' fans - the anthrax deaths were a failure of the government.  They never solved the crime.  The post office was closed for three years.  The postal workers in DC were ignored for the capitol hill staffers!  Give me a break.

And how about reframing:

Mr. Smith at times has been at loggerheads with the leadership of his own party, a political battle that cost him a committee chairmanship

Smith was at 'loggerheads' with DeLay who came in two terms, 4 years after him, and Smith is lauded for failing to get veterans their funding!  It shows that Smith's skills as a politician are lacking.  And what did he do since then for veterans?  He towed the line, voted for the war, sent the military to Iraq without proper armor and has not succeeded in getting the VA fully funded. 

But the press is happy to allow these guys to rest on their laurels.  Smith, with the nationally recognized worst GOP website (out of what, over 250?), is so shameless as to print in this summer's constituent newsletter his 2004 photo with Megan's (of Megan's Law) family.

Dust off the dinosaurs. Check what your guy has done in the last TWO years!!  If you come up with only, strip women of their right to family planning, escort Terri Schiavo's brother onto the House floor in a move designed to allow the most radical intrusion of the federal govt into people's lives - and a little moderation with the human trafficking stuff, reflect for a moment.  Carol Gay would oppose human trafficking too, and represent the district far better.  No she doesn't have 26 years in office, but NJ has to get over the idea that status quo is the be all and end all.

Voter Suppression Techniques November 7

by: moorestownmark

Sat Oct 28, 2006 at 11:08:36 AM EDT

Everyone has heard the voter suppression techniques infamous in places like Florida, Ohio, Missouri, et al.  Intimidation techniques, incredibly long lines to vote, unconstitutional purges, aggressive poll challenges, and so forth.  Some of it may be urban legend.  A lot of it is undoubtedly true. 

On November 7, I fully expect to cruise up to my Moorestown polling place, find plenty of close parking, no lines, and lots of smiling poll workers that assume I will loyally vote Republican.  I expect that the total process will take 5 or 6 minutes out of my day.  However, I'm not sure if they will continue the complimentary concierge services or not,  The free car washes have been great, although they smudged my "Range Rover" last time.

If I lived in Cleveland, I would have different expectations.  End of that story!

So for entertainment purposes only, what would be the fantasy Democrat techniques? 

Here's my first idea:

For November 7, rent a squad of white Taurus or vans.  Put them at polling sites in strong Republican precincts.  Plaster official-looking and terse "IRS Mobile Audit Team" Signs on the signs.  Hire actors in black suits and equip them with clipboards and briefcases.  Do lots of roaming around the parking lots, and be eager to meet incoming luxury cars?

Second thought:
Send out letters in heavy Republican areas, pre-election day, warning voters who have second homes, that new challenges will be made so that voters with residences in Moorestown and on LBI will need 6 forms of documentation to prevent double voting.  "Please be patient", the letter will read, "We expect only 30 or 40 minutes to confirm the validity of your documents" 

Of course I'm only being ridiculous...I know Democrats who are affluent and have second homes.  (But I also know who is more likely to be affluent and have second homes...)

Post YOUR ideas!  Deadline is November 7!

Chris Smith on CNET's Worst Political Websites

by: JRB

Thu Oct 26, 2006 at 08:32:47 PM EDT

The problem in selecting the most ridiculous, poorly crafted, or just plain bizarre political Web sites is an embarrassment of riches: There are so many worthy contenders. But whatever the criteria, the Web site of Rep. Chris Smith, a New Jersey Republican who's running for re-election, would qualify. Anyone thinking of putting up a Web site that's devoid of actual content should skip the project instead on grounds of sheer embarrassment. (We took the accompanying screen snapshot last week. This week, the Web site has changed to become even less useful.)

NJ Citizen Action Endorses Carol Gay

by: mitch

Wed Oct 25, 2006 at 01:05:36 PM EDT

At a Press Conference this morning at the Statehouse in Trenton, NJ Citizen Action PAC annouced their 2006 endorsements.

Carol Gay took the opportunity to talk about the issues

I am working to ensure that government responds to the needs of people rather than the interests of those with money and power.

but also went on the offensive against Chris Smith:

Chris Smith has not debated his opponent in 20 years.  He doesn't debate because he has a shameful, embarrassing record and he doesn't have the courage to stand on a stage and defend his failed policies.

Republican leadership has failed.  Chris Smith has failed.

Smith is protecting a party which has seen the indictment of the previous majority leader (Tom DeLay), the indictment of the chair of the House administration committee (Bob Ney), the imprisonment of a member of the Appropriations Committee (Duke Cunningham) the federal investigation of the chair of the House Appropriations committee (Jerry Lewis) and, most recently, a federal investigation of a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee (Curt Weldon).

(full speech below the fold)

Dr. Dobson's weighs in on the NJ Delegation

by: zora01

Tue Oct 24, 2006 at 10:27:23 PM EDT

But I think Chris Smith gets extra credit for all the hard work he does for Dobson and other religious extremists. That's why we need Carol Gay for Congress.

The votes:

Marriage protection and sponsorship of the amendment; maintain ban on abortions at military facilities overseas; requiring minor's parents be notified if crossing state lines for an abortion and requiring doctors to notify parents of out of state minors who seek abotion services; repeal tax payer money used for lawyer fees in establishment of religion cases against local state and federal governments (ten Commandments)-"threatening public official's public displays of religion"; removing federal courts from hearing Pledge of Allegiance cases; and of course blastocyst protection act.

Chris Smith is SOOO concerned about families but he doesn’t trust NJ families to do the right thing whether making a decision about the size of their family or end of life care ( he was Terri Schiavo’s brother’s chauffer to middle of the night pressers- had to cancel a trip to Europe to get in on the action.) He has spent his 26 year congressional career trying to eliminate contraceptive and abortion services not only for his constituents and US citizens, but also for the poverty stricken in developing countries.

Advice to women in the 4th - hold on to 'the pill' (Help!)

by: kwilkinson

Tue Oct 24, 2006 at 02:23:24 AM EDT

As explanation, he opposes interfering with a fertilized egg, and since birth control pills may do that (mostly they stop ovulation, but it might prevent implantation) and IUD's do, it's condoms or nothing. I haven't figured out yet how the Africa stance fits in with the condoms are ok view, except if he's defending Catholic and other religious groups working in Africa who do oppose condoms.

The papers will not cover this, considering the Star Ledger and Phil. Inquirer endorsements over the weekend, relying on Smith propaganda that he is a moral person etc and his 'principled' demotion from the veterans affairs committee (hey, he stood up to DeLay once - he won't call for Hastert and Boehner's resignation now, even though he was on Foley's Missing and Exploited Children's Caucus and wants life imprisonment for what he calls 'child sex offenders'). Some women's group understand the threat, and their DC offices worry about it, but want to back viable races when it comes to their PAC's, or are just now getting around to considering the 4th. 

We need boots (or whatever the latest fashionable walking shoe is) on the ground, $$, progressives, women and anyone else who is closer to the 4th than the 7th to get out the word out.

Honestly, when these two weeks are over - I go back to the 6th in my peri-menopausal state, so as people like to say regarding Iraq, I don't really have 'skin in the game,' except my desire to live in a state where science is not rejected for ideological reasons and one where we've regained ground lost for women in politics, if not broken the glass ceiling.

Help! 

Pinky gets it wrong, anybody ready to write an LTE?

by: kwilkinson

Sat Oct 21, 2006 at 08:32:32 PM EDT

When Smith takes a stand, be it on opposing abortion, increasing benefits for military veterans, or ending human trafficking and other abuses around the globe, he fights for it no matter the consequences. His dogged efforts on behalf of veterans cost him the chairmanship of the House Veterans Committee in 2005. While often tackling international issues, Smith has a good record of addressing constituents' concerns at home.

Can we get over the fact that DeLay kicked him of the Veterans Affairs Committee???  He learned his lesson and has voted for plenty of legislation denying vets the help they need, not getting troops the equipment they need and getting us into the quagmire in Iraq.

Throw us a bone:

The Case for Gay

Gay is a longtime labor activist and is strongly pro-choice on abortion. She is most passionate about her opposition to the war in Iraq and favors withdrawing U.S. troops as soon as possible.

Smith opposes any form of CONTRACEPTION except condoms and abstinence.  They like to mention "pro-choice on abortion," without getting that the fundamentalist movement is now about denying contraception and stopping embryonic stem cell research!  Smith has also gone into bills to make sure that US funding was allowed for AIDS groups in Africa that refuse to offer condoms on religious grounds.

And then this gem:

Character / Ethics

Smith has supported several campaign reform bills; Gay supports public financing of campaigns. Smith's devotion to veterans and human rights around the world speaks highly of his personal integrity.

Personal integrity would be calling for the RESIGNATIONS of the House leadership as Carol has done.  Standing up to the leadership that has been indicted, jailed, investigated by the FBI, and at the end of the "Dubya proclaimed 'National Character Counts'" week, calling for his party's leaders to step down since they refused to protect the exploited teenage pages he professes to care so much about as a member of Foley's Missing and Exploited Children's Caucus.

Carol Gay heads north, to Montclair for a fundraiser.

by: FogerRox

Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 12:19:18 AM EDT