NJ-Gov 
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Sun Sep 13, 2009 at 01:54:35 PM EDT
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The latest Monmouth/Gannett New Jersey poll is out, and the headline is "Christie Continues to Lead, But It Depends on Who Votes."
To understand what they mean, let's take a little day trip over to Virginia, where polls have shown the Democrat Creigh Deeds slowly gaining on the Republican Bob McDonnell. As TPM's Eric Kleefeld says about PPP's polls:
In the top-line, McDonnell still leads with 49% to Deeds' 42%. However, this is a big shift from the 51%-37% McDonnell lead from a month ago. There has been a significant shift in the make-up of the likely voter pool: A month ago, respondents had voted for McCain by a 52%-41% margin, while the new pool is at McCain 49%-45%. This is still a long way from the actual result last fall, when Obama carried the state 53%-47%.
Are we really going to have this year's elections decided by the people who went for Bush, and don't have any regrets? PPP finds evidence Democrats are getting more excited even in South Carolina. So turnout is key. Let's come back home, and see what Patrick Murray's Monmouth/Gannett poll found:
Among likely voters, Christie now holds an 8 point advantage over Corzine - 47% to 39% - with 5% for independent Chris Daggett. While this is similar to the Republican's lead in July, it is down from the 14 point advantage he held in August, when Christie led Corzine by 50% to 36%....
Another indication that this race is far from settled is how the race stands when the preferences of all registered voters are considered, including those both likely and unlikely to vote on November 3rd. Among all registered voters, the "horse race" narrows to basically a tie, 41% for Corzine and 40% for Christie. The Republican had a 4 point lead among registered voters in the August poll and a 6 point lead in July.
I don't think we should jump for joy: There's nothing good about an incumbent at 41% in the polls. But we should keep in mind that here in New Jersey, down in Virginia, and nationwide there's pretty good swing waiting to be had, if we can just get our voters "fired up." How to do it? Hard work by the staffers and volunteers, for sure, but that's not enough. Let me know what you want to see.
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Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 10:58:03 PM EDT
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Today I was surfing for something to watch and came across an ad for local news on my digital cable box. It seems that IO provides local news by hitting the C button on my remote control. I hit the C button and access my local news and the first story is State Senator Loretta Weinberg demanding answers from Christie for the loan he forgot. The coverage provided by channel 12 news allowed Sen. Weinberg to question how someone who got paid regularly would forget to disclose it. The story did allow Christie to rebut the claim but gave Sen. Weinberg the final say.
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Thu Jul 16, 2009 at 11:03:14 PM EDT
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Wow! What spectacular pictures. Great job letting us know what it was like three rows from the stage. Thanks, mconvente! - - - promoted by Rosi
Hey all! I'm finally back home after a long day with the Rutgers Democrats, and I have some pictures and video to show you from today's rally with Barack Obama and Jon Corzine! Jump over the fold and check 'em out!
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Wed Jun 24, 2009 at 07:21:16 PM EDT
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Pollster Strategic Vision finds that Corzine is still trailing. They're considered a Republican-leaning pollster, but the poll of "800 likely voters" here in New Jersey finds:
Jon Corzine 39%
Chris Christie 51%
Other 2%.
Still no improvement for Corzine in the polls; the early ads have had no effect. The fundamental problem is that 59% of likely voters say New Jersey is on the wrong track.
If you're wondering, the Approval-Disapproval for major Democrats are:
Governor Corzine 34-54
President Obama 56-38
Senator Menendez 50-37
Senator Lautenberg 47-40
By the way, the average of the three June 2009 polls is 39-51, the same as today's results. So we can't blame the pollster.
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Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 01:43:44 PM EDT
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The headline from today's Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey is that Jon Corzine trails Chris Christie 40-50. That's actually a "likely voter" model, which many people say is not appropriate for a June poll, so if you'd like to compare to previous polls the numbers for registered voters are 37-46. In other words, I'd say the poll looks just like all the other ones this year.
I see on other websites that many progressives still like to talk about how "Democrats always trail in New Jersey." Well, that's the exaggerated version, actually it's just that Democrats have underperformed in early polls in the last decade. I want to point out the numbers for other politicians to show why that's not what we're seeing this time:
Barack Obama is very popular (but isn't a local guy):
Obama: Approve 68%, Disapprove 25%.
Senators Lautenberg and Menendez look like normal Democrats:
Lautenberg: Approve 44%, Disapprove 36%
Menendez: Approve 40%, Disapprove 31%
Notice that they're in net positive territory, but well below 50%. That's why they win elections, but don't poll very high to start.
Now Jon Corzine:
Corzine: Approve 36%, Disapprove 56%
There's no doubt Corzine can come back -- there's plenty of time -- but he is a very weak position.
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Sat May 23, 2009 at 11:40:31 AM EDT
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Usually, I try to add analysis to my posts, but in this instance, there really is no additional analysis necessary when The Burlington County Democratic Committee said all that needs to be said about Chris Christie's recent visit to Medford Township:I was always taught there is no such thing as coincidence in politics. So, surely Christie's visit should be greeted without skepticism. However, it's tough to dismiss the fact that as the US Attorney, Christie did not know where Medford was when former State Senator Martha Bark was taking home hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars for no-show jobs.
Christie also didn't seem to know where Burlington County was when Chris Baxter was bilking taxpayers at the County Board of Social Services for a work product that fellow Republicans, including Senator Allen's Chief of Staff, questioned. Most alarming is that then US Attorney Christie didn't find anything troubling with the fact that insider Republican Bob Stears stole $2.7 million from the Burlington County Bridge Commission and called many of the GOP party leaders corrupt individuals when he was sentenced on Federal Charges for fraud.
Then US Attorney Christie couldn't find Burlington County on a map when some of the worst cases of waste, fraud, pay to play, no-show jobs and taxpayer abuse was rampant under GOP control, but ironically, today, Gubernatorial candidate Christie appears in our great Township of Medford in the closing weeks of his bitter primary election battle. Coincidence? There is no such thing in politics."
Of course, Christie is the tough talking corruption busting crime fighter when it comes to Democrats. But when it is his own party, we have seen how he didn't just learn from the Bush/Ashcroft/Gonzales/Rove crew when it comes to "justice for anyone but us" - he is right there as a big part of it.
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Wed Mar 19, 2008 at 08:51:03 PM EDT
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Promoted from the diaries -- Juan
Today, a number of New Jersey Democrats, both in office and seeking office this November, released statements on the fifth anniversary of the start of Bush's disastrous Iraq misadventure.
Bob Menendez ~
..."We cannot continue to throw American lives and American money at a situation that neither will resolve. There are no good solutions to the conflict in Iraq, only better and worse options for the United States. The best option is to bring our troops home as quickly and safely as possible. Sadly, if the President and his Republican allies in Congress continue to block Democratic efforts to transition out of Iraq, it seems that only the upcoming election gives our nation any hope of believing that this sixth year of war is the last one we will be forced to endure."
Read more here...
Frank Lautenberg ~
"For five years, our troops have done their duty with bravery, answered every call and served above and beyond their commitments. And for five years, President Bush's leadership has failed to live up to their service and their sacrifice. It is time for the President to get the Iraqi government to live up to its commitments and start to bring our troops home."
Linda Stender ~
On the fifth anniversary of the war in Iraq, it is time our nation comes together to bring our troops home and set a timetable for withdrawal within a year. Nearly 4,000 American soldiers have lost their lives and 29,000 have been wounded in a war should never should have been waged.
"We have the best military in the world, but our soldiers should not have to referee a civil war while the Iraqi political leaders sit idly on the sidelines. President Bush continues to spend more than $12 billion dollars per month to fund a war that the majority of Americans disagree with. While the biggest sacrifice is the nearly 4,000 brave American soldiers who lost their lives and 29,000 additional wounded soldiers, we continue to dangerously neglect American priorities. With more than $3 trillion spent in total on the war, our schools, hospitals, bridges, and military readiness have all suffered. We are on the brink of a recession, American families are struggling, it's time to bring our troops home so we can again focus on making America stronger."
John Adler ~
"Nearly five years ago, President Bush rushed us into an ill-advised war in Iraq without a plan to win the peace or an exit strategy to bring our brave American troops home. In doing so, our President took the focus off the war against al Qaeda terrorist network that attacked us on Sept. 11, 2001. Instead of being bogged down in a civil war in Iraq, we must focus our military efforts on finding Osama bin Laden and destroying the al Qaeda terror network in Afghanistan.
"It is time for President Bush to put an end to our involvement in Iraq in a swift, honorable and responsible way. The war has claimed nearly 4,000 American lives and sent tens of thousands of our young men and women home with serious injuries. It will cost American taxpayers in the excess of $2 trillion."
Read more here...
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