According to Daily Kos, the Republicans have put out a "Death List" of districts that are at risk. Their worst designation is "Seat is likely to go unless significant turn of events."
NJ3, where John Adler (D) is battling Chris Myers (R), and NJ7, where Linda Stender is fighting Leonard Lance (R), are at this level. The Republicans expect to lose these seats.
Even more amazing is that NJ5, where Dennis Shulman (D) is taking on the notorious tax cheat Scott Garrett (R), is listed as "Leaning Republican, if there's a wave, some could be in trouble."
The Republicans are thinking we're going to pull two seats and maybe three right here in NJ. Pretty amazing.
According to the 48 hour reports filed with the FEC -- within a couple weeks of the election the campaign has to tell the FEC about new reportable contributions within 48 hours -- Linda Stender's fundraising is continuing to roll.
On October 17-21, Linda raised $41,900 in reportable contributions, or a little less than $8,400 a day. That rate would translate to $250,000 a month and $750,000 for a quarter.
This does not, of course, include contributions below the reportable limit. Contributions to ActBlue or at fundraising parties and other small-dollar contributions.
Can she maintain that rate? Who the heck knows. But in crunch time it is always easier to raise than in July.
For horserace politics, nothing is more anticipated or easily understood than FEC filings on campaign contributions. It's a cakewalk to look at the numbers and say Campaign A raised $X and Campaign B raised $Y, and to tell the difference.
Today is the last regular filing for the Congressional campaigns, including all contributions from October 1 to October 20. You can go to the FEC website to look for the reports, which are posted pretty quickly.
After today any contribution -- in kind, loan or money -- has to be reported to the FEC within 48 hours, so if there is late money coming in it will be seen within 48 hours.
So there will be a good bit of money news coming out in the next two weeks for our Congressional campaigns. Be on the lookout, and post diaries if the front pagers don't get to it first!
There's only two more weekends until Election Day. While that may not seem like a lot, it's still plenty of time to make a difference.
We are under attack by Freedom's Watch (we've heard from this shadowy group before) and NRCC - on TV, in the mail, and on the phones. These organizations are nothing more than an outlet for Bush smear attacks against Democrats. They are throwing everything they have at us because they know they are in trouble.
We know we've asked a lot from you already. But, even with the finish line so close in sight, we can't slow down now. Our massive Get Out The Vote effort is expensive, with canvassers, lunches, vans, and literature, just to name a few of the necessary expenses. Here in Jersey, Democrats know how to get our supporters to the polls but it all costs money!
Linda is fighting hard on behalf of all hard-working families in the 7th District. She will fight to end tax cuts for Big Oil, save Social Security and protect women's rights when she gets to Washington. Linda just needs that extra push from you to put her over the edge.
Linda came so close to winning in 2006, and you have been with her every step of the way. Our GOTV program is massive and is essential to winning this race. In the critical days leading up to November 4th, we will need a gigantic grassroots force knocking on doors and making phone calls to ensure our supporters get to the polls. But a successful GOTV program costs a lot of money, and your support could make the difference as we fund this vital operation.
There is no way Linda could possibly be so close to victory without your help. However, while grassroots action is at the heart of this effort, it still takes money to communicate our message to the voters.
Leonard Lance's FEC report is up for the third quarter, and it shows that he has raised only $908,180.47 for the NJ7 campaign. That means he raised less than a million dollars for the effort, even though he is a Republican running in what has been a Republican district.
That doesn't include the joint fund he and Chris Myers set up to accept money from the Bush fundraising event.
For the quarter Lance raised $522,941.98 and has $258,032.54 cash on hand as of September 30.
Linda Stender's report has not been posted, but she previously announced that she had raised $681,000 in the third quarter and had more than $600,000 cash on hand.
According to Swing State Project the DCCC dropped $133,435 in NJ7 and $110,307 in NJ3.
In a sign that the NRCC still thinks NJ7 is salvageable, they put $19,385 down on Leonard Lance's behalf. Of course, that is a drop in the bucket compared to the money the DCCC is throwing at the race.
But they did nothing in NJ3, an indication that their polling may show a lost cause for Chris Meyers.
Update: Today is October 15, so we should start seeing real fundraising numbers as reported to the FEC coming out later today. It may tell us a lot.
Internal polls can be taken with a grain of salt. So, too, can party commissioned polls. The tendency is to lean towards positive information and bury the bad. Still, there are two updates from the DCC that are worth noting:
1) Linda Stender leads Leonard Lance 40-31 - a nine point advantage. The poll shows Obama leading in the district by 15 points.
2) John Adler leads Chris Myers 38-34 - a four point advantage. Barack Obama leads in this district by eight points.
We may be seeing the growth of some coattails - but this is far from over. No one is measuring the drapes or picking out office furnishing. Contact the campaigns and get involved.
Linda Stender's campaign announced today that they have raised $2.2 million for the campaign and have $600,000 in cash to spend over the last three weeks of the campaign.
She raised $681,00 for the third quarter ending September 30.
In an election where the Democratic Party is expected to make large gains, no young candidate has generated more buzz than Josh Zeitz, the Democratic candidate for Congress in New Jersey's 4th District. Polling data putting his incumbent opponent well below the 50% mark just weeks before election day, Josh's already record breaking fundraising, and an influx of new registrants making Democratic voters the majority in this district may very well be the perfect recipe for change from years of ineffective Republican rule in this part of the state.
Visuals: Opening image of New York Stock Exchange floor, followed dark screen with words "Fire Scott Garrett" followed by Garrett's face alongside the Capitol building and then Countrywide mortgage office as phrases spoken by narrator appear on screen. Ends with image of Shulman.
Analysis: Shulman, who has aired only negative ads this fall, continues his head-on attack of Garrett. If voters believe the markets-know-best attitude caused the current crisis, the ad - despite exaggerations - could do some damage because Garrett has generally been a free-market champion.
Here is the ad. It's a great example of linking the Congressman and his actions to the current situation.
Lance admitted he opposed Stender's bill and believed women should be forced instead to rely on pharmacist referrals for their prescriptions if they were not able to obtain their birth control. Stender denounced this as an undue burden for women, stating, "Women should not have to drive around just to get their basic prescriptions filled. Leonard Lance is truly out of touch if he believes women should be forced to drive from pharmacy to pharmacy looking for someone to give them their medication."
I wasn't aware this is such a huge issue in the 7th. I might mention that whether a woman is able to get birth control becomes less of a factor if she can't afford the birth control because she already makes less at the job she hopes she doesn't lose because she won't be able to find another one in the bad economy. They mention driving from pharmacy to pharmacy, but don't make the connection to the burden of the cost of gas. Lance has tried to focus on the Property Tax grant program as well, not making any mention of the economy.
Update: I was running out the door. Here is some more.
The Cape May County League of Women Voters and 98.7 FM WCZT, The Coast radio station, are joining forces this year to sponsor the only Candidates Forum in the county where all six candidates running for the 2nd Congressional District will be present.
All of the candidates went after Lobiondo's record at the last debate to which he responded if you have any question to call his office, so I wouldn't expect anything different once again. Kurkowski also has a press conference scheduled for tomorrow at 2pm to discuss Lobiondo's broken contract with America.
My hope at this point is that any recovery plan focuses first and foremost on the root cause that haunts Main Street. All attempts should be made to see that honest, hardworking people can somehow remain in their homes and avoid foreclosure. This is essential to stop the slide in the market overall. Stimulating the economy comes next. Many options are on the table, including efforts to create jobs through a conversion to a green economy.
This money is part of an overall $8 million buy in 40 districts. The independent expenditure program is how we got the Myers astronaut ad and the Lance Dance, along with other targeted mailers. Lets hope they use the money wisely. With the races as close as they are, it looks like every vote and every penny will matter. Maybe you can give them some good ideas for what to do with the money in the thread.
As has already been noted, Monmouth University's latest poll has Linda Stender trailing Leonard Lance, 43-39 among likely voters and 41-37 among registered voters. With less than a month to go, that isn't good news - but it isn't necessarily bad news, either.
The poll also has some encouraging news - if the Stender campaign knows how to capitalize on it. For instance, among likely voters, Obama leads McCain by a single point(47-46), with 7% undecided. If nothing else, that shows that a Democrat can win the district. The problem is that Lance loses only 4% of those likely voters, while Stender loses 8%, with 14% undecided.
The problem for Stender, then, is that she needs to give Obama voters a reason to stick with the Democratic line. This will be helped somewhat by having Frank Lautenberg - though his near-absent campaign doesn't help the coattails flow nearly as long as they would if he actually, you know, ran a campaign or something. But Dick Zimmer has the attraction of a big ball of poop in a bowl of rice. If you like that sort of thing, it's yummy - but most people are not going to go out of their way to swallow it.
If you've been thinking that good polling news for Barack Obama and Frank Lautenberg means that Democrat Linda Stender is a lock in the NJ7 open seat congressional race, think again. Here are the latest results from the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll:
Registered Voters (503) Leonard Lance: 41% John McCain: 43%
Linda Stender 37% Barack Obama: 45%
Likely Voters (410) Leonard Lance: 43% John McCain : 46%
Linda Stender: 39% Barack Obama: 47%
The small numbers mean that the margins of error are estimated at 4.4% (RV) and 4.8% (LV), but they are absolutely adequate to show that Stender does not have any kind of significant lead, and is probably behind right now. There are many undecided voters waiting to be won over. Thurman was right to call for volunteers. Bush won this district by 6%, so at least Obama is doing well.
Does Leonard Lance believe or does he not believe that women have a fundamental right of access to birth control?
It's a simple question, but one he seems intent on dodging. This week, in a response to a DCCC ad charging that the Republican candidate is too extreme for 7th district voters, his campaign did not refute the on-screen charge that Lance had "voted to deny women birth control." Now, this wouldn't have been notable except for the fact that the campaign refuted (falsely, of course) every other claim in the TV spot.
Along with the vast majority of New Jerseyans, Linda Stender believes that pharmacies should be required to fill prescriptions, regardless of their personal views on women's rights. That's why she introduced a bill in the Assembly guaranteeing that such discrimination would not be allowed in New Jersey. At the time, she said that "under no circumstances should a pharmacist's personal beliefs impede a patient's ability to obtain their prescribed medicines."
Over on PoliticsNJ they have an article about an massive phone banking effort by the Somerset County Republicans led by former Congressional Candidate and Iraq War Veteran Tom Rougheen.
"Every night for 18 nights we will have people from a different town in Somerset County in here making calls for Sen. McCain, supplemented by women making targeted calls on Wednesdays and veterans calling people on Tuesdays," said Roughneen, who serves as the McCain campaign's coordinator for Somerset County.
Eighteen of the next 35 nights -- just about half of them -- they'll be calling to support McCain and the Republican ticket.
So how's it going?
Roughneen said he hopes to get more volunteers in the coming days to bolster turnout in this base Republican county.
"Our first Tuesday was a little weak," he admitted, referring to Tuesday afternoon's head count.
The head count? Two.
The quality of the volunteers?
Two women - Carol Dragon and Alice Ann Mason, both of Bedminster - made calls out of GOP headquarters on Main Street in late afternoon.
"We're trying to register absentee voters," said Mason.
They're trying to register voters over the phone. OVER THE PHONE! Over the phone.
Hee hee. They're registering voters over the phone.
Good news, I'm pretty sure, for the Democrats running in Somerset County, I'm pretty sure.
Promoted from the diaries - Thurman Last Monday, George W. Bush came to New Jersey to raise money for some conservative Republicans seeking election to Congress. The President knows these congressional candidates will work hard to pursue his policies, and that?s why he came to our State even though his popularity here is abysmal. Now, Leonard Lance and Chris Meyers might have George W. Bush swooping in to raise big bucks for their campaigns, but that doesn't mean we can?t do something about it.
Like most New Jersey residents, I don?t live in a swing district. So I won't be able to cast a vote to stop these Bush Republicans. I won't be able flip a seat to the Democratic side of the aisle at the ballot box on Election Day. But, I still want to do something to give Barack Obama a larger congressional majority. That's why, a week from tomorrow - next Tuesday, October 7th - I'm helping put together a fundraiser for Linda Stender's campaign in Hoboken.
Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post The Fix column moved the NJ3 and NJ7 races down the ranks in his "top 25 races most likely to switch parties category." This DOES NOT necessarily mean that anything has changed in the races to the detriment of the Dems, but could mean that OTHER races in OTHER states (like my yelling?) may be more likely to switch hands.
NJ3 (Adler vs. Myers) was the sixth most likely to switch last week, and is now number nine. NJ7 was the eighth most likely before, and now is number 10. NJ5 (Shullman/Garrett) and NJ4 (Zeitz/Smith) are not listed.
Here's the skinny according to Chris:
10. New Jersey's 7th District (R): The ads in this race are GREAT. Hard to choose whether we like the "Lance Dance" or "Linda Stender is a Big Spender" better. (Previous ranking: 8)
9. New Jersey's 3rd district (R): Polling released by Lockheed Martin vice president Chris Myers (R) shows the race close. But state Sen. John Adler's (D) massive financial edge could change all that quickly. (Previous ranking: 6)
What do you think? Will they switch? Will we fall short again?
Also, are you working one of these races? Volunteering? Just paying attention? Leave a comment or write a diary today!
After the bruising the Republican Party took in the 2006 election cycle, a tight-knit core of right-wing operatives and donors loyal to George W. Bush and Karl Rove came up with a plan: organize a well-funded, "independent" political organization to sell the American people on the virtues of the Iraq War. This organization, known as Freedom's Watch, has since become the single most reliably pro-Bush organization in the country, demagoguing issues from immigration to Social Security privatization.
Hot on the heels of Bush's multi-million dollar rescue operation for Leonard Lance and Chris Myers, the White House has clearly put the word out that getting Lance elected is one of their top priorities. Who knows what's they're going to come up with next. Lance can try to weasel his way out of it, but the proof is undeniable at this point -- George W. Bush and Karl Rove want nothing more than for folks like Leonard Lance to be elected to Congress to protect their legacy. They know that electing people like Linda Stender means that their dreams of permanent majorities rubber-stamping policies from Social Security privatization to endless war in the Middle East will come to an end.
To help us respond to the coming right-wing onslaught, please consider making a contribution to the campaign at LindaStenderForCongress.com/Contribute. And if you aren't in a position to contribute, sign up to get involved with the campaign at LindaStenderForCongress.com/GetInvolved/Volunteer. You can help us immediately by knocking on doors, making phone calls, and letting your friends, neighbors, and family in the 7th district know that real change isn't going to come from the same tired Bush team in Washington and their handpicked candidates across the country. It's going to come when we elect more people like Linda Stender to Congress.
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