South Jersey poll

by: Hopeful

Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 05:14:28 PM EDT

In a head-to-head question, Republican challenger Chris Christie's  lead over Governor Jon Corzine is only 2.7% -- well within the margin of error of polling and down from approximately a lead of 7% in September's Stockton poll.  Chris Daggett reaps 18.4% of the vote - still substantially less than the major party candidates but double the number from the previous poll...

In the race for governor 33.9% would vote for Chris Christie, 31.2% for Jon Corzine, 18.4% for Chris Daggett, and 14.6% of the voters are still unsure who they would vote for.

When I say South Jersey, I mean Legislative Districts 1-4 and 9. The poll has 800 likely voters, and as in the previous poll, Zogby's methodology must somehow result in more undecided voters: both major candidates are way below their statewide and the southern geographic subsets in other pollsters.

I want to quote the Stockton director:

"The question statewide is from whom Daggett is pulling votes?" said Hughes Center Executive Director Sharon Schulman. "In the southern portion of the state that was polled, it appears Christie's Republican base may be eroding as his support among GOPers dropped from 73% in September to 60% in October. Daggett is also pulling Republican votes away from Christie as we find that his support among them has jumped from 7% to 19%," Schulman said.

Assemblyman Burzichelli told me that his running mate, Celeste Riley, would win, and the Assembly breakdowns look good here:

The poll looked at the races for General Assembly in these districts also. The margin of error is greater, however, because of the smaller subgroup size. Most notable in these results is that people are firming up who they are voting for compared to the September poll.

1st District:  McCann (R) 49%, Donohue (R) 43.5%, Albano (D) 44.1%, Milam (D) 30.1%, Not Sure 10%, Someone Else 2.8%.

2nd District: Amodeo (R) 43.6%, Polistina (R) 40.7%, Floyd (D) 29.9%, Martinez (D) 28.2%, Not Sure 19.7%, Someone Else 6%.

3rd District: Burzichelli (D) 47.1%, Riley (D) 39.2%, Villare (R) 25.7%, Lucas (R) 24.4%, Not Sure 24%, Someone Else 3.8%.

4th District: Moriarity (D) 47.3%, Collins (D) 41%, DiCicco (R) 29.4%, Lawrence (R) 28.3%. Not Sure 21.5%, Someone Else 3.8%.

9th District: Rumpf (R) 45.3%, Gove (R) 43%, Visotcky (D) 23.7%, Rue (D) 22.3%, Not Sure 29.6%, Someone Else 2.7%

So Zogby says we're likely to lose in LD1.  

Republicans Want to Eliminate DEP

by: Winston Smith

Tue Oct 20, 2009 at 09:55:30 AM EDT

According to the Press of Atlantic City today, Republican challengers in the Assembly 1st District (Cape May/Cumberland/Atlantic) want to eliminate the DEP.

Let me repeat that - political candidates for the NJ Assembly want to eliminate DEP.

I am one of DEP's biggest critics, but this is ridiculous - I think we've crosed some kind of rhetorical threshold (and DEP does not get $327 million in state funding).

This kind of know nothing assault is what happens when the environment is taken off the public policy agenda during an election cycle.

This is not the mere radical craziness of a couple of South Jersey Republican challengers. These perverse views are shared by many uninformed politicians and voters.  

The Governor has failed to lead on the environment, and has a poor record. So Corzine has no incentive for even mentioning the environment during the campaign.

Worse, Republican challenger Christie recklessly invites such crazy attacks by his call to slash DEP budgets further and transfer the natural resource programs out of the agency.

Independent Daggett, a candidate who knows better and has actual environmental management experience as USEPA Regional Administrator and DEP Commissioner, is not exactly out there leading the charge defending DEP.

The media is depleted by downsizing, diverted by the political circus, and seemingly locked into traditional horse race electoral coverage that ignores policy issues.

Environmental groups - heavily invested in Trenton lobbying -  seem to have lost all ability to organize and mobilize the public, or shape public opinion.

Let's hope the voters can see through it, but that may be tough, because no one is talking about the environment, the protections DEP provides,or the economic facts.

If the typical voter is not concerned about DEP's public health protections (clean air, clean water, drinking water, toxic site cleanup, oil and chemical plant safety, et al) and is concerned only about taxes and money, one fact they might want to consider is that ONLY 24.7% of DEP's FY 2009 $230 million operating budget, just $56.81 million, is paid by taxpayers from the state general fund.

Over 75% of DEP's budget comes from industry fees, pollution enforcement fines, and federal EPA grants. (read DEP budget here)

The total State budget for FY 2009 was $32.87 BILLION. That means that DEP's share of the state budget was less than 2 tenths of 1% (0.17% - do the math).

There is NO money to be saved by cutting DEP.

Additional cuts to DEP's budget can not be justified on fiscal grounds.

Actually, cuts would INCREASE taxpayer burdens because DEP would receive less federal grant funds and fee and fine revenues would be reduced as DEP workload decreases. These would have to be made up with general funds from the taxpayer.

Taxpayers are getting a bargain at DEP!

It's the polluters and developers who want DEP eliminated, not the voters.

Shameful republican hacks are manipulating public opinion and doing the bidding of polluters and developers, who want DEP off their backs.
 

1st District Debate/Republican Swing and Miss

by: firstamend07

Wed Oct 14, 2009 at 10:02:12 PM EDT

The Republican answer to every question was cut taxes. But when asked what programs would no longer be funded they had no answers.

A Republican with a plan has become an endangered species in this State.

Milam and Albano,along with StateSenator Van Drew are well known for their hard work and constituent serves in this conservative district.

The two contenders from the GOP are light weights and seem to understand very little about state issues.

The Republicans will be hard pressed to  win either of these two seats based on their poor effort tonight.  

South Jersey poll

by: Hopeful

Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 04:13:18 PM EDT

The top headline is that Christie leads Corzine and Daggett 37-30-9.  Lots of undecideds: both major candidate are about eight points below their statewide averages. Perhaps different methodology, or would you believe South Jersey voters are more thoughtful than our northern neighbors? Various questions on what influences the vote were asked but I don't think any of the answers are surprising or interesting.  

At first I thought the exciting bit is that there are results for five South Jersey Assembly Races: LD1, LD2, LD3, LD4 and LD9.  But wait, if the entire sample is 600 likely voters, then the samples per district will be about 100, and margin of error is over 10%! Click to the P of AC to learn the numbers, but with that margin of error the only legitimate results are that Nelson Albano (D-LD1) at 53% and John Burzichelli (D-LD3) at 42% are safe. Everything else is worthless.  

I'm in LD3, and I've had workers for Burzichelli and the newly appointed Celeste Riley come to my door so hopefully they are not taking anything for granted. Her 21% leaves her more-or-less tied with the two unknown Republicans at 24% and 21%. Not what I want to see in an area that loves splitting the ticket, but not too surprising for a new candidate before the campaign really gets going.  

Musical Candidates for the GOP in the 1st District

by: Jason Springer

Mon Jun 22, 2009 at 11:30:00 AM EDT

Frank Conrad has left the First District Assembly race, and John McCann - an Ocean City real estate agent and politician - is poised to replace him alongside Mike Donohue on the Republican ticket, Donohue said Sunday.

Party leaders in the area learned of Conrad's decision at week's end. The Upper Township committeeman cited a need to concentrate on pulling his small highway-safety-equipment business through the recession.

Conrad is citing business and person reasons, but sources strongly suggest that a key reason for ending his Assembly bid is that he could not get along with his running mate, Mike Donahue, or his campaign manager, Peg Emberger.

Why New Jersey Needs Clean Elections

by: Matthew Jordan

Tue Jun 02, 2009 at 08:17:39 AM EDT

When you look at the configuration of New Jersey Congressional and Legislative districts the most apparent characteristic is fairly straightforward: the district either heavily favors a Democrat or Republican, and the latter usually has little chance of winning.  Most elections are uneventful, unwinnable, and inherently bad for a representative democracy.  

As a Democrat I look at the legislative map and think, this is great, there is probably not one feasible electoral scenario that will give Assembly Republicans the opportunity to control a majority.  They have to run the electoral board, holding every potentially vulnerable seat and performing well in LD1, LD14, LD36, and one of LD4 & LD38 in order to take back a majority.  All on limited resources with a broken party infrastructure.  

Out of 40 Legislative Districts in New Jersey any politically savvy person will tell you that there is probably only 2 battleground elections.  In LD1 Assemblymen Nelson Albano and Matthew Milam will fight to be reelected with Senator Jeff Van Drew not at the top of the ticket.  In LD36 Gary Schaer and Frederick Scalera are facing 2 candidates who came very close to unseating them in 2007 due to a series of local issues, mainly the Encap fiasco.  I would put Assemblyman Wayne DeAngelo higher on the list of potentially vulnerable Democrats, but the Republican recruiting effort there was just embarrassing, especially in what could be a very competitive. election in LD14 where alienated State workers are a large portion of the electorate.  

Two South Jersey Maps

by: Hopeful

Tue Nov 06, 2007 at 10:50:25 PM EST

Another map, this one from National Atlas:

Your assignment is to compare them.

LoBiondo Avoids Failing Asselta Campaign

by: firstamend07

Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 07:13:47 PM EDT

The wispers of " where is Frank" are spreading over the Asselta campaign.

Asselta was deceived before by LoBiondo when LoBiondo forgot his promise about term limits and therefore prevented Asselta from running for Congress. Now this " cool " relationship has become " frigid".

The 1st District Republican Party is coming apart .

Asselta/Giuliani Rally Flop

by: firstamend07

Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 08:13:56 PM EDT

This had to be a huge disappointment.

Asselta picked up some needed money from a fundraiser but a clambake could have drawn more people than Giuliani.

Asselta was once again given bad advice from his, out of touch with the 1st District, campaign manager Bill Pascoe. Giuliani might be popular in North Jersey but he is not popular with voters in the First District.

This was not the needed boost to a faltering Asselta campaign. 

Van Drew won more voters outside the Shop Rite today. 

PoliticsNJ: LoBiondo is in trouble, Whelan and Van Drew leading

by: Hopeful

Thu Aug 23, 2007 at 03:15:10 PM EDT

Internal polls in both districts show the Democratic challengers with a lead against the GOP incumbents.

With a "major Republican player" badmouthing LoBiondo anonymously, and Republican Francis Blee supporting Whelan, the wheels are coming off the Republican party in South Jersey.  Meanwhile, everyone understands that Van Drew or Whelan will sooner or later be a strong challenger for Congress.

Pick Your Map-Changer

by: Thurman Hart

Thu Jun 07, 2007 at 09:00:04 PM EDT

Check below the fold for more info.

Asselta Challenge

by: firstamend07

Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 03:10:56 PM EDT

Asselta seems to be the only obstacle to  a " solid south" for the Democrats. Whelan will be favored, Sweeney will easily win, the Assembly seats will likely all go Democrat.

What will Asselta do?

Van Drew "seriously considering" run for State Senate
By Max Pizarro - March 27, 2007 - 2:33pm
Tags: Asselta, Van Drew,
By MAX PIZARRO
PoliticsNJ.com

Democrats say a recent poll they conducted gives Democratic Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew the edge in a head-to-head with State Sen. Nicholas Asselta in the 1st district, which serves all of Cape May and parts of Atlantic and Cumberland counties.

Based on the poll --  which Democrats say gives Van Drew a 16-point advantage --  the three-term Assemblyman on Tuesday said only that he is "seriously considering" a Senate bid against Asselta.

The district leans Republican, and Van Drew would need funding commitments from state Democrats to make the race --  but he suggests the polling gives the party a reason to take notice.

Asselta, running for his second term in the Senate after nine years in the Assembly, says he's an old athlete. "Whoever they line up, will be the opponent," he told PoliticsNJ.com. 

He says has not run any poll numbers on a match-up with potential candidates. "Why would I want to spend my time on a poll?" said Asselta. "Right now, there's no confrontation."

But there may be one before the April filing deadline -- perhaps with Van Drew.