The RNC is sending robocalls from Rudy Giuliani and John McCain into the homes of NJ Voters. Here's the Rudy call:
Hi this is Rudy Giuliani. I'm calling because I care about what's going on in New Jersey. The Trenton Democrats broke their promises and raised billions of dollars in taxes. Business, jobs and families have been driven out of the state. Special interests dominate Trenton and corruption continues to fester at taxpayers expense. Business as usual can't be allowed any longer. We need your vote to get New Jersey back on the right track. On Tuesday, November 3, let's replace the Trenton tax machine for the real change NJ needs. Vote Republican
This is John McCain calling with an urgent message. Trenton Democrats broke their promises and raised millions of dollars in taxes. As a result, businesses, jobs and families have been driven away. These corrupt special interests will continue to dominate unless you take action. This is an extremely close election and your vote will make a difference. On Tuesday November 3, vote Republican for the real change NJ needs.
And the RNC isn't alone, Rosi got a robo-call from Cory Booker the other day. Let us know in the comments if you've gotten any robo-calls.
In the November presidential election, Barack Obama carried 28 of the state's 40 legislative districts, while John McCain carried just 12. The closest districts were 12 and 21; in 12, McCain won by 435 votes out of over 113,000 cast, while in 21, Obama won by 529 votes out of over 116,000 cast.
Turnout was the highest in the fast-growing, southern Ocean County-based 9th district, where more than 124,000 people voted. The 9th also gave McCain his largest vote total-over 71,000-and his fourth largest percentage win in the state. Turnout was the lowest in the Newark-based 29th, which was also by far Obama's strongest district in the state. Obama won his largest vote total-over 73,000 votes-in the 7th district, which includes Willingboro, Mount Holly, Pennsauken and most of the river towns in Burlington County.
Only two districts that Obama failed to win by more than 11% elected Democratic legislators in 2007, and the two that did represent districts in South Jersey. All ten Republicans elected to a districts that McCain didn't either carry or lose by less than half a percentage point hail from the southern half of the state.
Table: Republican legislators in Obama districts
Legislator
District
Obama
MOV
Sen. Diane Allen
7
37.9%
Sen. Bill Baroni
14
17.5%
Asm. John Amodeo
2
17.5%
Asm. Vince Polistina
2
17.5%
Sen. Phil Haines
8
7.6%
Asm. Scott Rudder
8
7.6%
Asw. Dawn-Marie Addiego
8
7.6%
Sen. Sean Kean
11
5.7%
Asw. Mary Pat Angelini
11
5.7%
Asm. David Rible
11
5.7%
Sen. Tom Kean
21
0.5%
Asm. Jon Bramnick
21
0.5%
Asm. Eric Munoz
21
0.5%
See complete results below the fold. The numbers for 27, 28, 29, 31, 32, and 33 are estimates but should be accurate to within a couple hundred votes.
It sure takes a long time to get the final New Jersey numbers. When we last left the results election night, Obama led McCain in the unofficial count 57% to 42%, or 2.085 million to 1.545 million. The 2008 official election results are now available, and the final count is:
Barack Obama 2,215,422 57.27%
John McCain 1,613,207 41.70%
Total 3,868,237
The winning margin was 15.57 points. Blue Jersey's Poll of Polls predicted a 16.9 point win. Rasmussen's final New Jersey poll was the most accurate, getting the result correct at 57-42, although it did have the advantage of being the closest to election day. Ralph Nader, I suppose, can be happy that his 0.55% led the third-party challengers and rounds up to 1%.
Frank Lautenberg 1,951,218 56.03%
Dick Zimmer 1,461,025 41.95%
Total 3,482,445
There's two interesting thing here. First, 10% of the Presidential voters did not bother with the senate race. Second, Obama did better than Lautenberg. The final margin of 14.08% was comparable to the average poll result of 15%.
"Swing" is a measurement used by handicappers and political scientists to measure political movement of a constituency from one election to another. In this map and subsequent discussion, the swing for a county equals ((% Obama '08 - % Mccain '08) - (% Kerry '04 - % Bush '04))/2.
Below the fold, I examine Obama's performance region by region.
According to figures compiled by the Secretary of State's Office, more than 3.65 million people cast ballots in the Garden State.
That broke a record set in 2004 when 3.63 million voted in the race between John Kerry and George W. Bush.
From the Division of Elections, McCain's highest vote total from a county was Bergen with 174,526 votes. Obama's best county was Essex with 215,373 votes, though he also pulled another 208,410 from Bergen. Despite the turnout numbers, we didn't set all the voting records:
But Tuesday's results were far short of a record in terms of percentage of eligible voters who cast ballots. About 67 percent of registered New Jersey voters cast ballots, according to preliminary calculations; when provisional and other ballots are counted, the figure could reach 70 percent.
The record was 91 percent, set in 1960, according to the Secretary of State's Office. On several other occasions, turnout percentage was in the mid- to high 80s.
I can't even imagine 91% voter participation. Still, those are some pretty impressive turnout numbers. We'll have to look for the demographic breakdowns to learn more about the make up of the voters.
Four years ago this song blew me away, an amazing call to arms and for young people to vote. I really thought this song would make a difference, and maybe it did make it closer in some way.
But we lost because not enough people voted. Don't make that mistake this time.
The final Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll for this election season (PDF) finds Barack Obama enjoying his largest lead over John McCain yet -- 21 points. Patrick Murray observes that this may the biggest win since Reagan beat Mondale by 21. The average of the last seven polls, by seven different pollsters, now moves to 54.6 - 37.4 for a 17.2 point lead, so this is not crazy talk. Obama leads on the economy in this poll 56-31, and as he put it yesterday morning:
That's why I'm talking about the economy. That's why he's spending these last weeks calling me every name in the book.
49% of voters agree with Obama and blame McCain for the negative tone, while only 18% go the other way.
Murray's entry for best quote by a pollster is this:
To borrow from an old saying about Frank Sinatra, it's Obama's world this year and Frank Lautenberg is lucky to live in it.
Lautenberg leads 50-31, but only 36% view him favorably. 44% have no opinion of him. Zimmer's favorable-unfavorable days before the election is an astonishing 18-8!
There were 801 likely voters in the sample, for an estimated margin of error of 3.5%.
New Jersey schoolchildren overwhelmingly support Democratic Sen. Barack Obama in this year's presidential election, according to a statewide mock election carried out over 10 days this month.
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In the mock election, 67.5 percent of 263,181 students from 722 schools statewide voted for the the Obama-Biden ticket. Meanwhile, 29.7 percent voted for Republican Sen. John McCain.
The new SUSA poll of New Jersey shows Obama with a 10 point lead, actually a bit disappointing compared to other polls. This is McCain's first poll above 40% since early October, and again Obama has failed to hit 55%. On the other hand, the previous best pollster comment, Marist saying Obama enjoyed a "lovefest" in New Jersey, has been superceded by SUSA's headline "Democrats Obama, Lautenberg Win in Garden State." Win? I guess we shouldn't expect any more New Jersey polls out of them.
It doesn't really matter how you combine those polls. Pollster.com's estimator says 53.3-38.9. A simple average gives 54.6 - 38.0. The median gives 54-38. Well, I guess we can all understand the SUSA headline.
The vaunted, 72-hour plan that President Bush used to mobilize voters in 2000 and 2004 has been scaled back for McCain,
It looks like John McCain has a made another brilliant move, forgoing an intensive GOTV effort and putting the money into TV Ads instead. Brilliant for Barack Obama that is. I'll bet you a cup of Coffee that these ads will go real negative, "Obama and Satan sacrifice kittens at Alter of Death" and such.
With Millions of Obama volunteers geared up & ready for the final 3 day push, McCain is ceding the Obama superiority in ground game, which we've seen in the primary and it's no 2nd rate organization.
The latest Marist poll of New Jersey puts Barack Obama ahead by 17 among likely voters, a big improvement over the 3 point lead in their September poll. As for approval ratings, they actually use the word "lovefest" to describe Obama's 65-30 favorable-unfavorable score. There were 628 likely voters (MoE 4%) for the poll taken 10/20 and 10/21. You'll have to click through to see the registered voters, but there's not much difference. This poll adds to the evidence that Obama is now at or above 55% -- No wonder we don't have the usual stories of Republicans getting their hopes up.
51% of voters view Sarah Palin unfavorably, worse than her running mate who gets 44% unfavorable.
Lautenberg leads 48-41 among likely voters. There's no evidence of change since September. Only half of each side's voters say they strongly support their guy, which I blame on the lack of visible campaigning.
When the flag is lowered, no part of it should touch the ground or any other object; it should be received by waiting hands and arms. To store the flag it should be folded neatly and ceremoniously.
Update: For anyone who doesn't get why I would post this, it is to highlight the hypocrisy of the right wing nuts who regularly attack liberals if a flag pin is not worn or flags at a political rally are stored for future use. I don't actually have a problem with the McCain folks packing this flag this way, because how else are you going to do it?
The Democrat leads by 54% to 35% among all registered voters and has a similar 55% to 38% advantage among those most likely to vote on November 4. Obama has doubled the 8 point lead he held among likely voters last month. Importantly, very few Obama voters indicate that they are likely to change their minds before election day.
The other October New Jersey polls of likely voters show Obama at 55, 50, and 50 and McCain at 40, 42, and 37. The average is 52.5 - 39.3 for a 13 point Obama lead, but note that the two most recent polls agree he has hit 55%. Another nice tidbit from Monmouth is this:
Currently, 68% of voters say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting compared to only 17% who say they are less enthusiastic.
This is amazing, and should be forwarded to all the wavering pro-choice Republicans out there.
John McCain mocks -- with air quotes and a sneer -- the idea that the health of the mother should be taken into consideration during emergencies involving pregnant women.
That is the headline of a release from the Shulman campaign containing this passage:
Friday, "a woman told McCain: "I don't trust Obama. I have read about him and he's an Arab."
Rather than express the view that there would be nothing wrong if Obama was Arab - or correcting the misperception that he is Arab, which sadly does benefit McCain politically - McCain said, "No ma'am, no ma'am. He's a decent family man...[a] citizen that I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues. That's what this campaign is all about."
"We need leadership in the best tradition of America, leadership that embraces our diversity and recognizes that we cannot idly stand by and hope to benefit from bigotry," said Dennis Shulman, the Democratic nominee in New Jersey's Fifth Congressional District.
"Senator McCain needs to forcefully speak out against those of his supporters who seek political gain by appealing to hate and making Barack Obama appear to be un-American. I believe that Senator McCain needs to explain his behavior to allies like Senator John Sununu of New Hampshire, who also happens to be Arab American. When elected, I will provide this district and my country with the kind of ethical leadership we need, which emphatically includes a willingness to speak out against bigotry."
The McCain campaign has tried to walk a fine line and failed miserably. It's amazing that 3 weeks out, they now have to "clear up the confusion" and tell their supporters he is actually a citizen. They are reaping the results of the fears they have stoked.
Capital One Financial Corp said on Friday it will stop financing vehicle inventory for auto dealers in the states of New York and New Jersey, starting November.
The decision comes at a time when the global credit crunch has put a squeeze on auto dealers, who face more expensive credit to finance consumer purchases as well as their own inventory amid a steep plunge in U.S. vehicle sales.
Capital One spokeswoman Tatiana Stead said that it was a business decision based on a variety of factors.
They say this only deals with inventory financing and won't affect auto loans, but this certainly isn't going to help the already struggling auto dealerships. And for a reminder, less than a month ago before they converted into crisis mode, John McCain, George Bush and Chris Myers were still trying to convince people the economy was basically strong:
