A new survey by Democracy Corps in 50 of the most competitive battleground Congressional districts - nearly all of which gave a majority to Obama in the last presidential election - shows the new Republican majority very much in play in 2012.
The Republican incumbents in these districts, 35 of them freshmen, remain largely unknown and appear very vulnerable in 2012 (depending on redistricting). In fact, these incumbents are in a weaker position than Democratic incumbents were even in late 2009, or Republican incumbents were in 2007 in comparable surveys conducted by Democracy Corps.
The polled districts include the old NJ-3 (Jon Runyan) and NJ-7 (Leonard Lance). Now, we don't know what the new districts will be, and New Jersey is losing a seat, so it's too early to worry about details. What is clear through this and other polls that the Republican extremists in the House (and their counterparts at the state level) are alienating independents, exciting Democrats, and all-in-all building a voting record that will be difficult to defend.
The key though is that Democrats -- and progressives -- must recruit credible challengers while the window of opportunity is still open. LoBiondo's district is very favorable to Democrats, but giving him a pass year after year has left him seemingly invulnerable. Democrats can't afford to make the same mistake with Runyan.
President Barack Obama's decision to commit the American military to the United Nations action in Libya has come about without a Congressional vote and can safely be described as controversial. Evidently the President thinks Col. Gaddafi will be overthrown quickly. Our two senators are strongly in favor. Naturally, most of our Representatives have taken the opportunity to say nothing--as you'll notice I'm doing too. As for our regular users, Couch Potato Politics thinks Obama's Libya war is unconstitutional and unwise. Here's what I've found...
"It is welcome news that the Security Council has voted to stop Qaddafi's slaughter of thousands of Libyan people who are seeking freedom" stated Lautenberg. "The madness employed by Qaddafi's guns, tanks, planes and artillery against innocent men and women seeking human rights must be stopped immediately."
"Muammar Qadhafi is a terrorist - plain and simple. Just days ago, Qadhafi said he would hunt down every person opposing him. After years of violently oppressing the Libyan people and silencing political opposition, we cannot - and should not - take Qaddafi at his word. The announcement today is nothing more than an attempt to distract and deceive the international community while internally pursuing his hunt. The international community must follow through, impose an immediate no-fly zone, provide desperately needed humanitarian assistance, and extend a hand of friendship to the Libyan people. This is our opportunity to effect change and end Qadhafi's rule of terror."
Like many Republicans, my Representative Frank LoBiondo is proud to support the Middle East wars at the cost of a trillion dollars but opposed loaning money to American banks during a financial crisis. A new story in the New York Times indicates his "principles" are about to collide:
Fraud and mismanagement at Afghanistan's largest bank have resulted in potential losses of as much as $900 million - three times previous estimates - heightening concerns that the bank could collapse and trigger a broad financial panic in Afghanistan, according to American, European and Afghan officials.
The bank is used by our military to pay Afghans nominally part of their own government payroll. Time's Joe Klein thinks China should bail out the bank, which I'd be happy to bet against. No, this is an expense that is going to be added to the occupation.
I'm looking forward to see if Republicans will vote to bail out these crooks and how they will keep it as quiet as possible.
Bob Menendez: Banking (chairs the Housing, Transportation, and Community Development subcommittee); Energy and Natural Resources; Finance; Foreign Relations (chairs the International Development and Foreign Assistance, Economic Affairs, and International Environmental Protection subcommittee)
Frank Lautenberg: Appropriations (chairs the Homeland Security subcommittee); Commerce, Science and Transportation (chairs the Surface Transportation and Merchant Marine Infrastructure, Safety and Security subcommittee); and Environment and Public Works (chairs the Superfund, Toxics, and Environmental Health, Chair subcommittee)
One of the major goals of the Affordable Care Act is to close the Medicare prescription drug coverage gap, better known to most as the "donut hole." The law will fill that hole over a decade, and in 2010, that meant many seniors received a $250 rebate check.
"Richard Foster, the Chief Actuary for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), has said that "in theory," seniors would have to return the checks if repeal becomes law," the letter reads.
Yes, Leonard Lance, Jon Runyan, Frank LoBiondo et al. literally just voted to take $250 from seniors with large prescription drug bills. And since the elders of their party -- LoBiondo, Smith, Frelinghuysen et al. -- created the "donut hole" system in the first place it's obvious they really do want those seniors to owe the $250.
Here's Cantor's unreassuring response:
"If a repeal bill passes and there's any uncertainty as to whether those checks would have to be recaptured, we can speak to that then,"
I don't see how they will "recapture" 2010's check, but they sure want the ones for 2011, 2012, and especially 2013.
Frank LoBiondo loves to throw around the word "gaming the system" i.e., some people on extended unemployment insurance are "gaming" the system (no doubt a few are......and, thanks for pointing that out, Frank). Or, the Iranian gov't is "gaming" us as they continue developing a nuclear weapon (hmmmm, Frank, that's terrific, good observation!). Always with the criticism, usually going overboard (he begs for trouble when he does that) and not one idea of his own!
When this arrogant Congressman broke his term limit pledge- the center point of his campaign for an open seat in 1994- he gamed the system!
Rob Andrews (D) leads Dale Glading (R) 63.4% to 21.9%.
Frank LoBiondo (R) leads Gary Stein (D) 57.3% to 20.0%
Note that there are demographic numbers (party, age, race, education) included in the PDFs and you can see the district-level favoriability of the Representatives, President Obama and Governor Christie. Obama is over 50% (if barely) in all three districts. "Christie's decision to promote Atlantic City" does well in all districts but best in NJ2, which (gasp) includes Atlantic City. In other results, I trust no one is surprised that voters think "jobs and economy" is the top issue.
Now for the big race: Adler (37.1%) trails Runyan (40.3%), the first time I have seen that result. These seem like low percentages so late in the election, but note the 4.1% margin of error is larger than the difference. Runyan is at 48% favorable so any Adler attack ads have not been effective enough. Zogby says more Republicans than Democrats will vote in this race.
DeStefano (Tea Party) still draws in 4.9%. Almost half (37%) of those voters would switch to Runyan if "they learned the New Jersey Tea Party endorsed Jon Runyan and not Peter DeStefano." Half (48%) would switch if told ("they learned that the Democrats recruited DeStefano in order to hurt Runyan's chances for election." I'd like to hear more from the 4 DeStafano voters who would then switch to Adler! Small number statistics to be sure but you can see why those Democratic operatives wanted DeStafeno on the ballot and Republicans want to play up the story as much as possible. The poll was taken 10/18 to 10/22 so there's a real possibility the DeStefano voters have learned the story since the poll was taken.
If LGBT rights matter to you, you might wanna check out this website to see how your Congressman stacks up in the fight for gay rights.
I am in NJ's 3rd Congressional district where freshman Congressman John Adler turns in an impressive score of 92%. Looks like Adler gets an A in this class.
I didn't think it would happen but my Chris Coons bumper stickers don't seem like a hopeless gesture anymore. Here are some thoughts on what happened last night:
No one to blame but himself: Mike Castle by all accounts is a decent guy, but he voted to impeach Bill Clinton during a lame duck session (but only on one charge, such a moderate!) and voted to invade another country based on lies. You can't help feed your citizens a diet of poison for decades and then be surprised they're sick.
They all deserve to lose: Even though the Tea Party is wrong and is supporting people who will make our problems worse, the sad fact is that, conservative, liberal, or moderate, all the incumbents have failed us. Ten percent unemployment is unacceptable, and did I mention a permanent land war in Asia?
RoseAnn Salanitri. If Christine O'Donnell can get the Senate nomination in Delaware, why not the equally absurd RoseAnn Salanitri in New Jersey? Imagine who's going to turn out in June 2012 for the obscure Congressional primaries after months of red meat Republican Presidential campaigning. On the other hand, Chris Christie's proxy was beaten by Sarah Palin's proxy in Delaware, but he should have more power in his own state, and conservatives have more of a history (pro and con) here in primaries. I've read Salanitri's book on physics, anyone interested?
Frank LoBiondo: I'm afraid we've seen the last of Frank LoBiondo's votes with us on climate change, because the lesson is that if the national conservative movement focuses on you you're vulnerable to even an absurd candidate. I think O'Donnell is about the quality of opponent LoBiondo drew in the primary. LoBiondo has already been running scared of the Tea Party after some initial tough talk so he already knew it. The flip side is that some Democrat should step up in 2012, because who knows what will happen in the NJ2 primary next time? Someone will have to vote to pass the budget if Republicans gain the majority and LoBiondo may have to vote with the President from time to time, even while casting right-wing nutty votes that won't look good in a general election if someone could publicize them.
The Black Swan: This is a good analogy to how Wall Street got into us into this mess with advanced statistics. All summer, Nate Silver's 538.com listed Republican chances of winning the Delaware Senate seat as 99%. We can now see that he underestimated an unlikely event, or rather, didn't think about it at all. Just as Wall Street's statistical geniuses underestimated or completely missed the possibilty that the mortgage market had become dominated by national trends and outright fraud, so too Silver underestimated the possibilty that Republican primary voters have become very ideological. On the other hand, the statistical guys also told us Derek Jeter would be much worse this year, so don't sneer at everything, just be careful. (Why black swan? just because you've seen 100 white swans doesn't mean there are no black swans.)
Senate Reform: Bob Menendez has been silent on filibuster reform but we now know we will have a Senate with even more extreme partisan Republicans (if you don't think O'Donnell will be in the Senate, see Utah.) Tom Coburn single-handedly blocks an enormous amount of legislation and appointments. The clubby Senate rules may have worked in a era where the parties were not ideological, and liberal Republicans were a commonly used phrase, but that era is now ancient history. The Constitution calls for a majority to pass laws and approve appointments, not 60%, and even provided for a tie-breaker vote.
Appointments: For the same reason as above, Obama should give every one of his executive branch appointees recess appointments. Let the Senate vote to reject any that are truly bad, otherwise don't reward delay.
A possible scandal- the high road taken (ooooh, that wasn't too smart, "Longshot"). http://theessentialsteinforcon... A truck for auction on ebay....http://theessentialsteinforcongress2010.com/Auction_News.html....19 bids, and going nowhere- because car enthusiasts are broke- like the rest of us.
Next, a very unusual contest in which voters can enter to win a rugged, mans table lamp...
http://theessentialsteinforcon... And a letter to the editor....
Catching up on this site, Blue Jersey. Read a few diaries and the morning roundup. Good luck with all your endeavors. Fight the good fight; I'll continue with my crusade. One last diary about me, before I literally hit the road campaigning.
Unfortunately you folks- and what's looking more and more like a majority here in S. Jersey- might waste a golden opportunity to unseat a real political hack, just because (as been pointed out) I don't score A's and B's in certain specified categories thought needed to run and get elected.
The Democrat running against incumbent U.S. Rep. Frank LoBiondo, R-2nd, criticized LoBiondo's decision to vote against emergency federal funding to boost jobs for teachers...
In a written statement, Stein said, "LoBiondo has got to be feeling very uncomfortable now that he has voted to abandon his unionized supporters, because there are more teachers than Tea Party activists in the 2nd District."
Preach on, Stein! Oh wait...
Gary Stein, of Mullica Township, says he would have voted the same way.
You can't imagine how depressing this is. I blame party bosses for not recruiting even a symbolic candidate.
Hello Blue Jersey Democrats, I'm a life long Republican- a working class stiff by the way- who recently hitched my wagon to the Democratic Party in order to do something unusual. How often does a Congressman's supporter in 6 previous elections, change parties, successfully make it through the primary and become his chief opponent in the fall?
Anyone serious enough about their politics, to be "on-line" on a political blog on the 4th of July weekend, is dedicated enough for me to solicit an opinion on my progress to date. My opponent is Frank LoBiondo....
It looks like Frank LoBiondo isn't taking his challengers in either the primary or general very seriously:
House Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio) and other GOP leaders have pressed their Members to pay dues and to give whatever else they can to the NRCC to help the party's effort to make big gains in November. The NRCC still significantly trailed the DCCC in cash on hand as May began, $27.3 million to $11.5 million.
Most of the NRCC's April receipts from Members were dues payments.
Rep. Frank LoBiondo (N.J.) transferred $130,000 to the NRCC last month, more than any other House Republican.
This is why it's important to field strong candidates everywhere, even when it's an uphill climb for the race. Now LoBiondo's money, instead of being spent at home will go to help try to put some GOP candidate over the top in a very close race, maybe even NJ-3.
One of the late bipartisan achievements of the Bush Administration was the America COMPETES act which aimed to increase research and development funding in certain engineering and science areas, and support science education. The 10-year process of doubling this R&D funding (7% per year) requires a new authorization this year. (The same kind of increase was done successfully with National Institute of Health funding over the previous decade.)
The 2007 bill so was so bipartisan that every New Jersey Representative voted for it. Frank LoBiondo supported it. Yes, even Scott Garrett supported it. This is "mom and apple pie" stuff because we know that such government funding is paid back in economic growth. The nations we are competing with are investing heavily even as our private sector abandons basic research.
House Democrats had to scrap their only substantive bill of the week Thursday after Republicans won a procedural vote that substantively altered the legislation with an anti-porn clause....
But the Republican motion to recommit the bill -- a parliamentary tactic that gives the minority one final chance to amend legislation -- contained language prohibiting federal funds from going "to salaries to those officially disciplined for violations regarding the viewing, downloading, or exchanging of pornography, including child pornography, on a federal computer or while performing official government duties."
That provision scared dozens of Democrats into voting with Republicans to approve the motion to recommit. After it became clear the GOP motion was going to pass, dozens of additional Democrats changed their votes from "no" to "yes." In the end, 121 Democrats voted with Republicans -- only four fewer than the number of Democrats who voted with their party.
Of course the porn thing is just an attempt to sink the very bill these Republicans supported. (Why Democrats worry about this nonsense is beyond me, though to be fair many say Rahm popularized the tactic when Democrats were in the minority.) The Roll Call vote is here. The Republicans don't have an ounce of integrity and are trying to paralyze the government in a time of crisis by even destroying things they support.
ps. If you saw "scared Democrat" and thought John Adler you're right. That's what I predicted we'll see again and again. No other New Jersey Democrat voted for the Republican sham. Remember that this tactic would not work without cowardly Democrats. (Runyan, of course, would be even worse.)
Representative Frank LoBiondo (NJ2) has some unwelcome notoriety as a video entitled LoBiondo doesn't know the Constitution has gone viral over the last week. Yesterday, the video had some 70,000 views and this evening it's over 80,000. Here it is:
As for what I think, I posted the video and an e-mail promoting it last week, and said that my sympathies were with LoBiondo. Pop quizzes are designed to make people look foolish. But evidently the right-wing just eats this stuff up, because it's being posted at conservitve and Tea Party blogs all around the country. Of course, the same people were running around calling George W. Bush their "Command-In-Chief" just a few years ago, but now they love Congress and the right to protest.
Representative Frank LoBiondo doesn't like what's he's hearing on the F-35 fighter. Costs continue to escalate massively, yet the military is counting on replacing our existing fighter jets.
I probably don't agree with every particular of his complaints (I for one am glad we pulled the plug on the F-22) but it's good to see he's angry over these outrageous costs spiraling out of control. It's not just the military: we all know the Coast Guard (Deepwater) and NASA (Ares) have had similar problems. Congress needs to be part of the solution.
Although they're upset with his "aye" vote on cap and trade, U.S. Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-Bridgeton) says he welcomes primary opposition, and is encouraged by the organizing efforts of the Tea Party movement.
"I think it's great," says the 16-year veteran of the U.S. House. "A lot of people are energized, and when people are energized, we're all better off."
"If the cap and trade vote came up again, I wouldn't support it," adds LoBiondo, who would like to see the country develop a coherent energy policy - without the tax penalties included in the bill he originally supported.
He couldn't have put it any more plainly unless he was wearing a "white flag" on his lapel. I am disappointed but again not surprised.
I believe this nation is on a disastrous march. And now Democrats are losing votes because of the policies of extremists in your party.
According to LoBiondo's previously expressed views, our energy policy was on a disastrous course but now he has flipped his vote because of extremists in the Republican party. Sad to blame someone else for it. After all, cap and trade is a Republican idea:
I'm just old enough to remember when policies like cap-and-trade were quintessentially conservative. As an econ undergrad in the 1980s, cap-and-trade was the leading light in a suite of then radical, new, market-based regulatory ideas propounded by right-of-center economists. These new market-based approaches, they argued, would achieve superior amelioration of environmental problems without the heavy-handed inefficiencies of the "command-and-control" limits embraced by liberals in the 1970s. During my undergrad years, and the the years after, there was a decent debate about the policy and economic merits of the competing approaches to regulation. I imagine someone with Lexis Nexis could even find historical documents (Galaxy Quest!) of elected Republicans advocating cap-and-trade approaches as a conservative alternative to old-fashioned, unfair "liberalism."
Fast forward to 2009, and I confess I still find myself amazed that the conservative policy won the argument... Ironically, while their proposals were winning in the marketplace of ideas, the Republican party has abandoned the field of competition and retreated into an extremism that would probably shock even the 1964 edition of Barry Goldwater. Where you might have seen someone like Jack Kemp endorsing cap-and-trade as a sexy new idea 25 years ago, now the very same policy approach is crazy communism to today's Republicans. The policy hasn't changed, but the Republican party sure has. What was once a center-right party looking for innovative new ideas (like cap-and-trade), it is now a right-of-everyone-but-the-lunatics rump, mistrustful of any and all public policy and clinging only to the irrational scraps that feed their hysterical, anti-scientific state of denial. Kind of sad, really.
As LoBiondo has been in Congress since 1994, he really needs to look in the mirror and ask how he let this happen.
Frank LoBiondo is doing his best to avoid a primary challenge from the teabaggers and probably spit out his coffee when he read in the Atlantic City Press that he had taken sides in who the Cape May Republican committee should support for Freeholder. Before the fire got to hot, LoBiondo sent out a letter to members of the Republican Party denying reports of the endorsement:
The Press of Atlantic City reported that Freeholder Director Beyel said I endorsed John McCann ("Beyel said U.S. Rep Frank LoBiondo, R-2nd, also endorses the slate"). THIS IS NOT ACCURATE.
I was not part of the decision making process by the Cape May County Republican organization. I was not asked for my opinion nor consulted with in any discussions concerning the party's decision not to endorse Jerry at any time.
Once I found out about it as the rest of you did, I made it clear I would not be involved in the committee preference vote process.
But now it is being reported that I am. I AM NOT.
You have to love the strategic use of capitalization for emphasis. The Democrats don't have a challenger yet, so as long as he can avoid a primary, its a pretty clear path to two more years. He's already got incoming fire from his own side of the aisle and is trying to keep his profile as low as possible.
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