I don't know that it's much of a surprise that a first term Congressman in what has been considered a more conservative district is a target of the GOP, but John Adler makes the list:
Republicans hope an improved national political environment will help them contest many of the seats it recently lost. Of the 70 targets, 45 are freshmen and sophomores elected in the 2006 and 2008 wave elections.
House Republicans also appear confident that difficult votes on health care and energy legislation will put battle-tested members from conservative districts in trouble. There are over a dozen Blue Dog Democrats on the list, including those who have coasted to re-election in recent years.
When asked recently, potential challenger Diane Allen said it was "kind of early" for her to make a decision yet, but that she was watching and he hadn't done what she felt he needed to do yet. Their challenger in 2008, Chris Myers has been rumored to be the next Senator from Burlington County when the current Senator Phil Haines is appointed to be a judge in the fall, seemingly taking him out of the running. I'll put the full list and NRCC memo below the fold. Adler is the only NJ Democrat targeted by the NRCC.
State Sen. Philip Haines (R-Springfield) will remain in the Senate until after the November general election, and will become a Superior Court Judge during the Legislature's lame duck session, according to sources familiar with the pending appointment.
Haines, a 59-year-old Burlington County Republican who was elected in 2007 after years as the County Clerk and as a Freeholder, has spent much of this year angling for a judgeship. Democrats prefer that a special election for his seat be put off until November 2010, rather than this fall.
That last line is the key. The 8th has been a tough district and Democrats would be hoping that having Adler at the top of the ticket will give an extra boost to their candidate for Senate. Chris Myers will just have to wait a little bit longer.
Burlington County Republicans are saying that they expect Gov. Jon Corzine to nominate State Sen. Philip Haines (R-Springfield) to the Superior Court this month, and that Haines has told party leaders he could be out of the Senate as early as June 25. Republican sources say that Christopher Myers, a former Medford Mayor who won 48% in a bid for Congress last year, has emerged as the leading candidate to win a July special election convention to fill Haines' seat.
We here at Blue Jersey always thought that Myers was running a campaign for State Senate rather than United States Congress. At least we know he already has the state GOP talking points down.
[Former acting Governor Donald T.] DiFrancesco, a lawyer in Warren, Morris County, said he was not offended by Christie's remarks. He said the criticism is part of the routine give-and-take of the campaign trail, and part of Christie's attempt to portray himself as a refreshing independent alternative to Corzine, unafraid to antagonize his own party if need be.
"If they are going to blame a bunch of people for what happened, I guess they are going to have to throw me into the mix," DiFrancesco said. "I don't think it is negative... It's a campaign, he can say whatever he wants."
Yeah, it isn't like he's saying anything he actually means, right? This is just about getting elected... once he's in office, the good old boys will be back in the saddle again. He just has to sound like he's making a break with the past.
The problem is that Christie does say whatever he wants, regardless of whether reality matches the rhetoric he uses. But it's ok, because it's only campaign talk.
The stars could be aligning for the Burlington County Democrats. I have speculated in a few posts about rumors that at least one of the two sitting Republican Freeholders set to stand for re-election this year would not be running again. Now comes public speculation along the same lines. First, Freeholder James Wujcik last week, with a name everyone will recognize as a possible replacement:
There is speculation among Republican insiders that Burlington County Freeholder James Wujcik will not seek re-election this year. Wujcik has been a Freeholder since 1997. One possible candidate to replace him is former Medford Mayor Christopher Myers, who won 48% of the vote in his bid for Congress last year. Myers, sources say, is involved in a project at Lockheed Martin, where he is a Vice President, and has not made any decisions regarding his political future.
Chris "the economy is basically strong" Myers would be one of the few names already known on a county level from his unsuccessful effort against Congressman Adler last cycle, but that may just be a GOP dream as he doesn't seem to be committed to running. Myers is up for re-election this year in Medford, so if he ran for Freeholder, he would have to give up his local seat. He also lost the Burlington County part of the Congressional District and that was without many of the more Democratic river towns. At the time of that story last Friday, they said it was expected Bill Haines would seek re-election. Now today, comes quotes on the record from Freeholder Bill Haines:
"I'm still trying to decide what I'm going to do about freeholder," said Haines, who this year finishes up his fifth term.
[snip]
"I probably would have made the decision a long time ago if Aubrey Fenton and Stacey Jordan had won the last time, but with control up it makes the decision more difficult," he said.
I wonder who wanted the word to get out about Haines's decision. Fenton and Jordan lost to Democrats Brown and Reinhart this past November. I bet Haines is getting a ton of pressure to run again from the party. The internal dynamics of the Burlington County Republicans these days, makes this news even more interesting. There is still talk of rifts within the party between Senator Diane Allen and leadership. They spent over a million dollars losing two seats on the Freeholder board last cycle, lost the County Clerk seat, lost the Saxton Congressional seat and still carry an outstanding debt. The incumbent Republican State Senators are not on the ballot to lead the way and the incumbent Congressman of the same party, which they used to depend on is no more. Given the snow on the ground today, the perfect storm could be forming for Democrats in Burlington County this November.
When I made an issue of Chris Myers' claims to be a "decorated combat veteran", there were some who told me that I was treading where I shouldn't. Leave the man alone, I was told. He served honorably, let him say what he will about it.
For the record, all I ever did was tell the full story of Chris Myers' service. He served honorably. He was awarded combat designations. But he did not serve in combat capacity. It was awarded under a waiver by the Secretary of the Navy.
For the first time since 1882, a Democrat will be sworn in as the next Congressman from New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District. The perfect political storm known as the 2008 election has broken a 126-year drought and turned an impressive state Senator into a promising Congressman-Elect. But it was not a storm that "just happened". It was a storm that was planned and executed with precision.
State Senator John Adler announced his campaign for Congress to challenge then sitting Congressman Jim Saxton very early, on September 20, 2007. From the beginning, Adler waged his campaign on progressive values; his decision to challenge Saxton came shortly after Saxton voted against expanding S-CHIP. This would have been his second time challenging Saxton (Adler ran in the then 13th Congressional district in 1990), but on November 9, 2007 Congressman Saxton announced he would not seek re-election due to health reasons. Now the race was for an open seat, an easier proposition for Adler.
To understand the political dynamics at play, you first have to understand the geographic composition of the district. The 3rd District includes Cherry Hill in Camden County, most of Burlington County and a sizable chunk of Ocean County. On the Democratic side, the field cleared for Adler and he received the early support of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. On the Republican side, many wanted Burlington County native State Senator Diane Allen to run. When she declined, Chris Myers emerged as the Burlington County Candidate.
Obama should win with little difficulty in this reliably Democratic state, but two House seats are tossups, and a third is a potential upset. In the 3rd District, GOP Rep. H. James Saxton is retiring after 12 terms, but Democratic challenger John Adler, a state senator from Cherry Hill, has strong party backing and has assembled one of the best field organizations in the country against Chris Myers, a Lockheed Martin executive and Republican mayor of Medford.
The 7th District, also a GOP-created vacancy, had been viewed as friendlier to Republicans, but Democratic state legislator Linda Stender has proven a tough competitor against state Sen. Leonard Lance. Republicans are less worried about, but still distracted by, the 5th District race, featuring Dennis Shulman, a blind rabbi endorsed by New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg (I), against GOP Rep. Scott Garrett. Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg is expected to win easily over former congressman Dick Zimmer.
Lets hope that field organization pulls Adler across the finish line in NJ-3 and the Republicans are so distracted by the Shulman campaign in the 5th, they lose both NJ-5 and NJ-7. Best of luck to all of our campaigns.
It appears that one of the nation's highest-profile open congressional races will remain agonizingly close until the end.
Six weeks ago, Republican Myers led Adler by 1.4 percent. Adler has gained slightly and the candidates now are tied, with Adler at 39.7 percent and Myers at 39.4 percent. A large chunk of voters in this traditionally Republican district - 16.5 percent - have still not made up their minds. Among independents, 23 percent are undecided.
Schulman attributed the tightness of the race to the fact that more Democrats are moving into the district, and most voters are unhappy with the direction in which the country is heading.
The gender gap in the 3rd is stark. Men prefer Myers, a military veteran, by a 50- to 30-percent margin. Women prefer Adler 49 percent to 29.4 percent.
Each candidate has demographic pockets of support. Adler leads among independents, 36 percent to 31 percent; young voters, 63 percent to 15 percent; black voters, 74 percent to 26 percent; and among people earning less than $50,000 per year by a 2-to-1 margin. Myers leads among voters ages 30-49, 49 percent to 30 percent; white voters, 41 percent to 36.5 percent; Catholics, 46 percent to 32.5 percent; and among those earning more than $50,000 per year, a lead of six to 10 points depending on the income bracket.
They are essentially tied among senior citizens, 41 to 40 percent for Myers.
On the 19th of this month, the Atlantic City Pressendorsed John Adler, saying this about Republican candidate Chris Myers:
...he has run a disturbingly combative and negative campaign, and too often merely parrots Republican talking points on foreign policy, trickle-down economics and other issues.
Myers also has come close to calling Adler corrupt, which he is not, and has unfairly tried to paint Adler, a state senator since 1992, as a rubber-stamp for Trenton Democrats.
Chris Myers proves the AC Press as prescient when he writes to tell them how stupid they are. Combative and negative from the first word, he can barely wait to tie John Adler to Trenton. Way to prove them wrong right, Chris!
I guess the AC Press missed the part where Myers likes to pad his resume. Not only does he still talk up his US Navy waiver of combat duty, but now he is a defense mogul, too:
As a vice president at Lockheed Martin, I've helped to create thousands of jobs and balanced a budget.
Oh yeah? Make the jump. I got my stupid-bat out and I'm swinging for the upper deck
The DCCC continues to try to push our open seat candidates over the top, this time releasing a new positive ad for John Adler:
Well, maybe my calling it positive shows I've lived in New Jersey too long. Only the first part is positive, touting Adler's endorsements. The second half criticizes Chris Myers.
Snider, who oversees the Flyers and 76ers as the CEO of their parent company, Comcast-Spectacor, has not only donated more than $34,000 to GOP causes, including John McCain's campaign, but also is reportedly a major donor to a hawkish pro-Iraq War group called Freedom's Watch.
Comcast-Spectacor turned down a request by the Daily News to interview Snider. Last week, Snider told the Inquirer that Palin's appearance "has nothing to do with politics. This is to have some fun with the fabulous statement she made" - that is, describing herself in political appearances as a "hockey mom" from Alaska.
The Flyers, in the wake of the publicity over the phrase, held an "ultimate hockey mom" contest and then invited Palin to drop the ceremonial opening-day puck with the winner on Oct. 11. The team went out of its way to brand the event as nonpolitical and didn't even mention her vice-presidential candidacy in its news releases.
Ok, so she's a hockey mom. I think that's a lame justification, but I'll let it go. She only dropped the puck. So how the hell do you explain the group you helped fund bashing my Congressional Candidate. Here's what I posted Oct 20:
Earlier in the cycle, Freedom's watch reared their head for Leonard Lance going after Linda Stender. Now we have them doing the bidding of Chris Myers attacking John Adler with a new robo call going into district homes. You can hear the audio and the caller goes after Adler for supposedly supporting:
"legislation that could give taxpayer funded healthcare to illegal aliens and taxpayers like you would pay for it."
I have spent more money than I care to admit on merchandise, concessions and tickets to games over my lifetime as a Philadelphia sports fan. Ed Snider is perfectly entitled to do what he wants with his money but it would be great if he'd stop using my sports teams to fund lies and racist robocalls. The 3rd Congressional district has a large amount of Philadelphia sports fans. I can't imagine it's good for business to take sides in an election and piss off a nice chunk of your fan base.
3rd District: The race in this district from the Camden suburbs into rural Burlington County is for an open seat. State Senator John Adler is a thoughtful, moderate Democrat who has helped ban smoking and curb predatory lending. The Republican is Chris Myers, the mayor of Medford Township who has held executive positions at Lockheed Martin. Mr. Myers has a businessman's view of what needs to be done in Washington. Mr. Adler would focus more on the middle class, including tax relief. We endorse John Adler.
5th District: Residents in this stretch from northeast Bergen County to rural northwestern New Jersey are represented by Scott Garrett, one of the most conservative members of Congress. Mr. Garrett supports constitutional amendments to ban abortion, even in cases of rape and incest. He backs President Bush?s tax cuts for the wealthy and limited aid for the poor.
We endorse Dennis Shulman, a Democrat who is a rabbi and psychologist. Mr. Shulman says he would work to mitigate global warming. He would also take an interest in psychological counseling and educational opportunities for veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan.
7th District: In the race for the open seat in this central state region, Republican Leonard Lance and Democrat Linda Stender are both excellent candidates.
Mr. Lance has a fine record in the State Senate, where as Republican leader he won praise from both parties for his fiscal conservatism and his thoughtful views on social issues. Ms. Stender is a progressive Democrat who would make a worthy member of Congress. But Mr. Lance's leadership qualities and his voice of moderation are needed now in Congress and in the Republican Party. We endorse Leonard Lance.
The campaigns filed their October 1 to October 15 Federal Election Committee results yesterday. Here's New Jersey's three top takeaway district results with a brief analysis of each at the end.
NJ3 -- John Adler (D) and Chris Myers (R)
Adler raised $139,996.28 and has $834,477.68 cash on hand after spending $578,484.62.
Myers raised $149,028.00 and has $217,296.02 cash on hand after spending $219,564.30.
As of October 15, Adler has about $600,000 more to spend in the last three weeks of the election. That's a big advantage, even with the NRCC running ads on New York radio. If I had to handicap the three races based on the public polls we've seen and the money race, I have to go with this one as the most likely to flip.
NJ5 -- Dennis Shulman (D) and Scott Garrett (R)
Shulman raised $79,952.13 and has $126,580.91 cash on hand after spending $179,434.31.
Garrett raised $74,756.29 and has $410,984.95 cash on hand after spending $234,548.97.
As of October 15, Garrett has about $220,000 more to spend in the last three weeks of the election, but the filing also notes Shulman raised more money leading into the election. I am surprised that Garrett, who people think is in danger, is not raising all that much money compared to other competitive NJ campaigns.
This is still a real long-shot for the Dems, but it is withing striking distance. Even the national Republicans say that in a wave election -- and national polls are hinting at a wave -- NJ5 could flip.
NJ7 -- Linda Stender (D) and Leonard Lance (R)
Stender raised $152,705.29 and has $304,481.42 cash on hand after spending $350,509.83.
Lance raised $139,240.00 and has $274,817.74 cash on hand after spending $191260.80.
As of October 15, Stenderhas about $160,000 more to spend in the last three weeks of the election, a lot less than I would have expected. With her huge fundraising advantage I would have expected her to have a larger cushion. However, the DCCC is spending for Stender and the NRCC appears to be absent for Lance.
According to the 48 hour reports (every major contribution has to be reported within 48 hours) Stender raised $41,000 between 10/16 and 10/21, and Lance raised $44,000 between 10/16 and 10/23 so the cash coming in is pretty even, too.
I put this one a close second to NJ3, and likely to flip. I have been thinking that Stender's campaign has been overly focused on reproductive choice in her ads at the expense of economic and international turmoil, but Lance felt he had to respond this week with a "I'm pro-choice" TV ad and a group of Republican women to defend him. His polls or anecdotes must suggest it's got traction.
So, in the comments, how are we going to do in these districts?
According to Daily Kos, the Republicans have put out a "Death List" of districts that are at risk. Their worst designation is "Seat is likely to go unless significant turn of events."
NJ3, where John Adler (D) is battling Chris Myers (R), and NJ7, where Linda Stender is fighting Leonard Lance (R), are at this level. The Republicans expect to lose these seats.
Even more amazing is that NJ5, where Dennis Shulman (D) is taking on the notorious tax cheat Scott Garrett (R), is listed as "Leaning Republican, if there's a wave, some could be in trouble."
The Republicans are thinking we're going to pull two seats and maybe three right here in NJ. Pretty amazing.
Most of this is going to be below the fold, because I'm looking at three YouTube vids featuring Chris Myers (Asshat - Medford). Presented in reverse order, it shows the education of Mr. Myers on the fundamentals of the economy. First, the "Blame-it-on-Bush" Myers, which is the current incarnation:
At odds with the establishment Republicans in her home county, Allen said she was happy to drive the hour and a half to stand with Lance against the Stender/DCCC attack machine.
She said she's working hard for the McCain/Palin ticket and for local candidates. As for publicly backing the machine-endorsed Medford Mayor Chris Myers in his fight with state Sen. John Adler (D-Camden) - or taking a shot at Myers - Allen demurred on both counts.
"My card is full," she said.
Yep. Not only have Myers' own employees dissed him, now the rank-and-file of his own party are just not going to mention him at all.
The Adler campaign also released a copy of an Oct. 1 check for $5,000 made out to its own campaign committee from the Employee's Political Action Committee at Lockheed Martin, where Myers is a vice president.
Is this a message to the boss from his employees? If so, we'd like to thank the employees of Chris Myers for attempting to spare us from his representation.
