The Divison of Elections certified the official voter turnout numbers the other day and we set a record:
Turnout was 46.9% - the lowest on record for a gubernatorial election, down from 48.5% in 2005 and 49.3% in 2001, the only other times less than half of registered voters turned out at the polls.
Looked at another way, though, the turnout of 2,451,704 voters was the most for a governor's race since 1997 and marked a 105,000 voter increase over the election four years ago.
The percentage turnout is affected by the presidential election registration surge typically seen every four years, which was particularly large in 2008. There were 390,000 more registered voters in 2009 than four years - and it's likely that a goodly number were interested in the race for the White House but less jazzed about the run for Drumthwacket.
Just when you thought you were done with the polls, FDU is out with a poll that shows the Governor holding a slim two point lead over Chris Christie:
Polling over the past 11 days by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind™ shows that Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie continued down to the wire in a close contest in the race for New Jersey governor. Reporting 1119 interviews of likely voters from Oct. 22 through Nov. 1 shows Corzine maintaining 43% support including leaners, against 41%, including leaners, for Christie, with 8% for independent Chris Daggett, 2% preferring other candidates, and 5% undecided, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
This part of the poll memo confused me as they separated white women from the rest of women:
Democrats often have a significant advantage among women, offsetting a Republican advantage among men, but this year white women split evenly between Corzine and Christie (42-42) while white men prefer Christie by a large margin (55-29).
Does that mean that women and men who weren't white didn't help them make their point? They say that a majority of voters think that no matter what the numbers say now, Jon Corzine will be the Governor once again:
Nonetheless, more than half of voters (56%) say they think Corzine will win the election, against 28% who think that Christie will win. One percent say Daggett will win, and 15% say they don't know who will pull this one out.
Polls only matter if the people who participate actually go and vote. That's all we have left now is the ground game.
Following months of campaigning and after 86 polls since August 2008, the final pollster.com average shows Corzine 42%, Christie 42%, Daggett 10.1%:
I don't know if the race can get much closer than that. If ever people thought their vote didn't matter, now is the time to show them just how much it does.
In polling conducted over the final weekend of this campaign, the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll finds the race is still in a statistical no man's land, but that incumbent Jon Corzine now appears to have a razor thin 43% to 41% lead over challenger Chris Christie. Independent Chris Daggett holds at 8%. This marks a slight, albeit statistically insignificant, shift from the 43% to 42% nominal lead Christie held in polling conducted from Wednesday through Friday.
"This race is still as close as it can be. It's possible that President Obama's visit boosted the governor's chances. But it is also likely that some anti-Corzine voters are still unsure of casting their lot with Christie. If the undecided vote breaks largely for the Republican, this race could be a squeaker," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
There has been a significant push to get people voting early:
The poll also finds that about 6% of New Jersey voters have already cast their ballot by mail, similar to the percentage of mail ballots received in last year's presidential race. For these ballots, Jon Corzine looks to have the decided advantage. A majority of 53% of mail voters say they voted for the incumbent, compared to just 31% for Christie, 11% for Daggett and 5% for other candidates.
Here's what the poll said about people's feelings for the candidates:
The poll found that Jon Corzine's job performance rating stands at 36% approve to 54% disapprove, which is basically unchanged from prior polls. However, his personal rating has improved, now registering at 40% favorable to 44% unfavorable. While still in net negative territory, this is better than the 39% to 49% personal rating the governor had last week.
Chris Christie's personal rating is a net positive 40% favorable to 38% unfavorable. This is down slightly from last week's 44% to 36% rating. It is also down significantly from the 50% favorable to 26% unfavorable rating he held back in July.
Chris Daggett's personal rating remains steady at 21% favorable to 21% unfavorable, with the majority (58%) of likely voters saying they never really formed an opinion of the independent candidate.
The polls are all over the place. It's all going to come down to who we get out to vote. Voters can find their polling place here. The site allows you to get an email/phone reminder when you want to vote and then gives you 5 neighbors who vote at the same polling place that you can call and remind to vote. You can even make calls from home on behalf of the Governor if you can't make it to a location to volunteer. If you want to volunteer but aren't sure where to help, you can call 877-NJ-GOV-09 and they will route you to the nearest office to get involved.
Note: For this article, I am relying on David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections. His website can be found at US Election Atlas
In just two days, voters will go to the polls in New Jersey to elect its Governor. Jon Corzine is locked in a dead heat with Republican Chris Christie, and it's clear that the winner will be the one that more successfully turns out their base of support. In a race that will probably be decided by a few percentage points either way, I feel it is worth examining where both sides will be expecting their votes to come from. Recent statewide elections in New Jersey have seen the Democrats win by comfortable margins, which will not be the case this year. What example, then, can we draw on to determine (as best we can) how New Jersey's 21 counties will vote in a close statewide election?
A couple of weeks back, I asked if Christie was choking down the homestretch as the double digit leads were evaporating as summer turned to fall and attention started being paid to this race. And while there was plenty of blame to go around - the numerous "drip drip drip" Christie scandals, the continued lack of a plan for anything, the belligerent tone in ads or on television appearances, the hammering he was getting from Daggett, Corzine, Democrats, conservatives and people who were starting to take notice, not to mention his blaming others for running what has been called "the worst campaign ever" - things never really got on track.
But now, it seems like Christie has gone into full "freak out" mode as some polls are starting to show Corzine opening up a lead or being within the margin of error.
He has re-opened the "wrong way Christie" story by saying that he wasn't going the wrong way down a one way street - essentially calling the officer a liar. After talking about how this race was not about "outsiders", he has had republican "superstars" (read: has beens and never will bes) Bobby Jindal, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani ad Tim Pawlenty campaign for him. There will be a teabagger rally (with him possibly there) since he will be less than a mile away with Joe "You Lie" Wilson.
He hasn't talked much at all about the "tax issue" that has fallen into his campaign's lap but chooses to spend the final week talking about how fat he is (his words, not mine).
And yesterday, he told a caller on 101.5 that he wasn't dead set against project labor agreements when he was asked directly, even though his website and prior comments have gone so far as to call them an "inexcusable amount of waste".
At the end of a campaign, a confident candidate or a candidate running a solid campaign would be hammering home the theme and message in a powerful closing argument. The problem with Christie all along is that he had no real message, he had no self control, ownership in his campaign or discipline and he had no real campaign theme.
Those are the last traits that you want to have or have portrayed in the days before a huge election. And for someone who has been accused of running a putrid campaign - it is amazing that he is ending it on an even worse note than he has been running it for the past few months.
In an interview on Sirius-XM Radio early Wednesday, Daggett said businessman Christy Mihos had called him to urge him to quit the race, saying he may be blamed for giving Corzine four more years. Mihos ran for Massachusetts governor as an independent in 2006, and he is now running as a Republican for that post.
"He felt that he did a lousy job when he ran [as] an independent, and now people are blaming him for it, and trying to act as though, or worry that I might be blamed in New Jersey for a Republican losing," Daggett said.
But Daggett wasn't having any of that talk and pushed back as he has consistently against arguments that he was going to cost the GOP the race:
"If the Republicans lose in New Jersey, they've got to look in the mirror," Daggett said. "The Republicans are the party of no. They don't participate meaningfully in the debate about how to fix things."
Daggett, asked if Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele had contacted him, said no. But, he said, Republicans "have sent other missionaries."
A spokesman for the Republican Governors Association said the organization did not urge Mihos to contact Daggett.
This isn't the first time in this campaign we've seen a candidate receive pressure from the right side to drop their campaigns. In the primary, Rick Merckt said that John Inglesino, a fundraiser for and friend of Chris Christie offered him a "major position" if he dropped his run for office. Christie of course said Inglesino was just a volunteer and that he had no knowledge of the offer. I guess they just figure they can't lose to people they don't actually end up running against.
Chris Daggett brought back his Christie and Corzine actors in this latest ad, "Don't spend money you don't have:"He closes taking on the notion that a vote for him is either a vote for Corzine or a wasted vote by once again repeating that it's never wrong to vote for the right person. He closed the radio debate last week with that line and that's really the additional hurdle that goes along with getting people to know who he is, convincing the ones who want to support him that he can win.
A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Governor Jon Corzine pulling ahead of Republican Chris Christie as one of the most closely contested statewide races in recent history enters the final stretch. The survey, conducted between October 20 - 26, pegs Corzine's support among likely voters at 43%. In contrast, for the first time this campaign, Christie trails the incumbent five points (38%), followed by independent candidate Chris Daggett's relatively impressive 13%.
The news should come as a shot in the arm to Democrats, who struggled all summer and fall to overcome what began as a double digit lead for Christie in the same poll. As State Senate President Dick Codey (D-Essex) told a reporter last night, "In July, he was dead man walking. Now, he's Lazarus."
Resurrected from the political graveyard or not, the news from Quinnipiac is not all good for Corzine, who continues to receive poor marks for his job performance. Respondents disapprove 54%-39% of the job he's doing as Governor, which on the bright side is his best showing in months. Interestingly, support for the two major candidates is nearly a mirror image in their respective parties. Corzine wins Democrats 79%-8% while Christie enjoys support of 79% to Corzine's 7% among GOP likely voters. In a campaign where the outcome may be determined by base voters, both will be looking to improve those numbers in the next few days.
The race remains wide open. In addition to Corzine's upside down approval ratings, 5% of likely voters remain undecided, and perhaps more significantly, 38% of Daggett supporters say they are likely to change their mind and switch their support before Tuesday. Quinnipiac Polling Director Maurice Carroll believes those numbers underscore just how fluid the race actually is. He said, "Christopher Daggett changed it from 'ABC' - Anybody But Corzine - to a real three-way scrap. But a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day. Where will they go?"
While the answer to that question will have to wait until next Tuesday, Corzine's negative ad campaign has paid dividends in the fight against Christie, who's own unfavorable rating continues to increase at a rapid clip. Respondents split 39-39% on whether the former U.S. Attorney is honest and trustworthy, his worst numbers since Quinnipiac began polling on the question, As another polling report, this one from Rasmussen, noted yesterday, "About the only thing certain in New Jersey at the moment is that the next governor will be someone that is disliked by at least half the state."
With six days to go, Corzine's campaign is hoping that the media blitz, visits from the Democratic A-List, and their traditionally superior GOTV operation will propel the embattled incumbent across the finish line come Election Day.
From October 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,267 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
Jeff Brindle, Executive Director of the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC) said today that "Governor Jon S. Corzine, Republican candidate Christopher J. Christie, and Independent candidate Christopher J. Daggett have raised $37.1 million and spent $33.6 million."
"Together," added Brindle, "the candidates have raised 15 percent less and spent 23 percent less than 2005 candidates Corzine and Forrester, who reported raising $43.8 million and spending $43.6 million at this time in the contest." The two major candidates in 2005 were self-funded.
But the Governor is outspending almost 3-1, the bulk of that coming from his own personal funds. Corzine is free to spend because he did not participate in the public financing program binding both Christie and Daggett to limits on raising and spending. Christie has already received the maximum $7.3M in public matching funds; 62% of funds raised. Daggett has received $726,876 in matching funds, 54% of his funds raised.
By contrast, Corzine raised $24.1M, $22.6M comprised of contributions or loans from Corzine himself to the campaign. He reports spending $23.6M. As the campaigns go into the final flurry of persuading and delivering voters, Corzine's advantage could prove a huge wallop.
These totals don't include spending by outside groups - like the Republican and Democratic Governor's associations - or money raised/spent by the candidates after October 20. Outside the Big 3, the report shows that combined the remaining candidates raised $44,802, and spent $26,305 in the general election.
Tomorrow, ELEC is scheduled to release 11-day pre-election financial reports for the statehouse candidates. ELEC Gubernatorial reports are here.
This post is about something I just thought of today. Normally, one of the rallying cries for governor's races in 2008-2010 is "congressional redistricting after the 2010 census is at stake." By influencing the drawing of congressional bundaries, governors can bias their state's delegation to their political party. You haven't heard much of that here in New Jersey because knowledgeable people know that our state constitution carefully hands equal representation to the two major parties, who last time at least, then protect incumbents:
(b) There shall first be appointed 12 members as follows:
(1) two members to be appointed by the President of the Senate;
(2) two members to be appointed by the Speaker of the General Assembly;
(3) two members to be appointed by the minority leader of the Senate;
(4) two members to be appointed by the minority leader of the General Assembly; and
(5) four members, two to be appointed by the chairman of the State committee of the political party whose candidate for the office of Governor received the largest number of votes at the most recent gubernatorial election and two to be appointed by the chairman of the State committee of the political party whose candidate for the office of Governor received the next largest number of votes in that election.
(There's also an independent member.) But you can see this throws a whole new angle into this year's race, if legally speaking Chris Daggett has a political party. Then, if Chris Daggett wins, he'll control two slots, and the people he might appoint could favor one party, or protect incumbents, or just insist on more competitive districts. Meanwhile, depending on who finishes third, either Democrats or Republicans will have two fewer seats. So, the order of finish actually matters this time. If Daggett finishes second, his party's chairman would appoint two members, and again the third place finisher's party would be short two seats.
On the other hand, I could imagine that he officially/legally does not have a party in which case I guess his party's chairman doesn't get the choice. I am not a lawyer and I don't know what happens, but it sounds like a political crisis to me that would make an interesting NJ Supreme Court case -- decided of course by judges appointed by the two major parties.
We're expected to lose a seat so redistricting will be very important next time, but with two independents it might be really lead to changes. However, there is not a single poll that shows him even coming in second, so the smart bet is it will never come to pass.
Update: Reading Article IV, Section III, with the interpretation I use above, would suggest one party would be shut out of drawing Senate and Assembly districts:
1. After the next and every subsequent decennial census of the United States, the Senate districts and Assembly districts shall be established, and the senators and members of the General Assembly shall be apportioned among them, by an Apportionment Commission consisting of ten members, five to be appointed by the chairman of the State committee of each of the two political parties whose candidates for Governor receive the largest number of votes at the most recent gubernatorial election. Each State chairman, in making such appointments, shall give due consideration to the representation of the various geographical areas of the State. Appointments to the Commission shall be made on or before November 15 of the year in which such census is taken and shall be certified by the Secretary of State on or before December 1 of that year. The Commission, by a majority of the whole number of its members, shall certify the establishment of Senate and Assembly districts and the apportionment of senators and members of the General Assembly to the Secretary of State within one month of the receipt by the Governor of the official decennial census of the United States for New Jersey, or on or before February 1 of the year following the year in which the census is taken, whichever date is later.
This might give Daggett leverage to demand significant reforms out of the legislature, even with a second-place finish, and would then imply a vote for Daggett is more than a protest vote.
Congratulations to the Yankees and their fans on advancing to the World Series. I anxiously await the trash talking that will commence between Yankee and Phillie fans across the state.
On the political implications, I would say that Jon Corzine is the winner. Because how many more potential voters in New Jersey will be seeing his ads with the Yankees playing the Phillies than any other combination of teams. He probably couldn't ask for anything more as you will have the possibility of 5 games leading up to election day where all eyes will be on Fox.
We're still waiting on endorsements from at least the Daily Record, Jersey Journal, Gloucester County Times, the Express-times and the Trentonian. The NY papers of the Post, Daily News and WSJ may still weigh in as well. I linked to all the endorsements so you can see why they say they made the selection. Let us know if other newspapers in your area have endorsed one of the candidates.
Did any endorsements surprise you? And another question, do endorsements even matter?
This is the single weirdest election I have ever seen, and it may get even weirder.
The AP is reporting that the Rutger's Eagleton Poll has Corzine leading with 39, Christie following at 36, and Daggett jumping up to 20. Statistically it's a tie at the top since the margin of error is 4.1 percent, but given the trends it is more bad news for Christie.
Corzine has been hovering around 39 for a while, trying to break 40 but seemingly unable to. Christie has been up in the 50s over the summer, but as the voters get to know him he's been collapsing. This is the lowest number I've seen, and shows what an unattractive candidate he really is.
But the story is Daggett, who is polling in the 20s now and halfway to Corzine's levels. It seems that Christie's collapse is Daggett's gain, and Corzine is just hanging around reaping the benefit.
But the real worry for Democrats is whether Daggett can start doing that to Corzine in the next week and a half, if he can pull off a Ventura and surge on election day. If enough people choose to put a pox on both houses, then they could wander off into Independent land.
However, a more likely possibility is that many of the disaffected voters out there who are on the Daggett side of the ledger are Democratic leaning unaffiliated voters or even registered Democrats who are pissed at the state of the country and state and looking to punish someone.
But when push comes to shove and they get in the polling booth, a lot of these folks will pull the level for the Democrats as they normally do. Telling a pollster you'll vote against your party is one thing, but actually doing it is another.
The voter registration still heavily favors Democrats in New Jersey, and it takes a real movement to overcome these kind of numbers. Unfortunately for Christie he is not charismatic enough to lead such a movement based on personality, and hasn't developed any ideas people can grab on to, either.
Corzine is in the same boat, neither charismatic enough nor full of ideas, but has the structural advantages of incumbency and registration.
All in all, this looks like a good position for Corzine to be in -- as long as the campaign is ready for a strong GOTV effort.
Josh Marshall had this take on the NJ Governor's race over at TPM earlier today while watching the rally with Governor Corzine and President Obama:
A few more thoughts on this race. I said a few weeks ago that I had the sense that Christie did not know how or have a plan for closing the deal on this race. The race is still basically tied. So it's not like Christie is out of it by any means. But the final weeks of a campaign is often where you really see what each candidate is made of. And beside falling in the polls (and since Corzine can't seem to get much above 40%, it really is a matter of Christie falling) almost everything Christie has done over the last couple weeks seems aimed at not only losing the race but zeroing out his own personal dignity in advance of election day. It really does seem like all Christie had going for him in this race was Jon Corzine's unpopularity. And given how unpopular Corzine is, that ain't nuthin. But the unpopularity of the other guy is seldom really sufficient if that's literally all you have.
They have run this race as the not Jon Corzine to the point where they're even trying to make Chris Daggett become Corzine now in their ads. But what about when you don't present yourself as a viable option? That's Christie's problem and each story that comes out seems to undermine what he wanted people to think he was even more.
Steve Lonegan's group has put together an ad urging people to vote no on 1, the open space public question. He decided the best way to convey his message, was to use a park and water as a backdrop with children as props:This is what he recently said about his effort:
Conservative activist Steve Lonegan said Tuesday he hopes to raise $200,000 and run radio and television ads opposing a statewide referendum to borrow $400 million for open space.
He said he wants to tap into the outrage he said was shown in tea party protests against federal healthcare and cap-and-trade legislation.
The paper looked into how the committee is run and had questions:
While Lonegan told reporters the committee was "all me," state documents filed Sept. 22 say the committee's top members are top officials with Americans for Prosperity, a libertarian-leaning group based in Washington, D.C.
Lonegan is AFP's New Jersey director. His name does not appear on any committee filings.
In filings with the state Election Law Enforcement Commission, the "Committee to Defeat Question One" lists the Bogota, Bergen County, address and phone number used by AFP's state branch. Its chairman is AFP's Executive Vice President and General Counsel John Flynn and its treasurer is AFP's Chief Financial Officer Steve Mullins. It also names Jonathan Martin, AFP's senior finance manager.
Lonegan said later "I run the operation." Asked about the out-of-state connections, he said, "That's just the way we set it up."
The event is being organized by the NJ Keep it Green Coalition, made up of 135 organizations from across the state that are working to renew the Garden State Preservation Trust and to provide for clean water, open spaces, farmland preservation and historic preservation. They are supported by a bipartisan group of legislators and local officials.
Governor Corzine supports the Open Space question, while his opponents Chris Christie and Chris Daggett oppose the measure. Polls thus far have shown support for the Open Space measure.
In yet another bizarre turn in an already crazy gubernatorial campaign, independent candidate Chris Daggett this week made a mistake he'll not soon forget: He left a loaded gun in a car when he dropped it off at a dealership.
Daggett says it was an honest mistake, that the gun belongs to his driver, a retired NJ State Trooper, and the car in question was a loaner from an Acura dealership in Bridgewater. Daggett's own car, which of course he's piled miles on during the campaign, was being serviced. Daggett says it was addressed immediately, yesterday.
I can't find the video online anywhere yet, but I've seen a commercial twice now that is paid for by the Christie campaign and goes after Governor Corzine and Chris Daggett for taxes, while closing positive on Christie. It was run on ABC before the Oklahoma/Texas game and on NBC before the Notre Dame/USC game yesterday.
I found a few things interesting about the ad. It's the first time I've seen them mention Daggett in their advertising. Prior to this, the RGA had run TV and radio ads targeting Daggett, but nothing directly from the Christie campaign itself. Also of note, the Christie campaign usually sends out a press release and tweet any time they put out an ad on tv or web ad. It's still not loaded on their Youtube page.
Did anyone else see the ad and what does it say that now Christie is spending his precious media resources not only going after the Governor, but on someone he's been so dismissive of all along? I'll try to grab the video if I see it on TV again.
Even as he's running in his own re-election contest, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is being urged by members of both parties to get involved in the New Jersey governor's race, according to a source in position to know.
Supporters of both Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, and Chris Christie, a Republican, have reached out to Bloomberg in hopes of picking up his endorsement and some of his money.
A Bloomberg adviser said the two-term mayor -- who is close to a sure bet to be elected to a third term next month -- has not ruled anything in or out.
But it's not the major party candidates that would receive the biggest boost from the Republican-turned-independent -- it's Chris Daggett, the independent candidate in New Jersey who is now polling in the low double-digits and who has helped turn the campaign into a dead heat.
Asked if it was possible for Bloomberg to come out for Daggett, the mayor's adviser repeated: "Nothing ruled in or out."
I wonder how a Bloomberg endorsement would factor in the race. For Daggett it could potentially be a bigger deal than Christie or Corzine. There has been no love loss between Corzine and Bloomberg dating back to the congestion pricing plan a few years ago. Corzine supporter Cory Booker and Christie backer Rudy Giuliani were both with Mayor Bloomberg today, so I wonder if the endorsement issue came up? It'll be interesting to see what he does, if anything and what it means to the race.
