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I've seen quite a few people arguing about why Rob Andrews wanted his wife to run for the NJ1 Democratic nomination and then turn it down. One thing that keeps coming up is that Andrews intends to return to that seat if he loses the nomination to Frank Lautenberg.
I really don't see that as the case, and would like to put a stop to that as a line of attack if I can. Here's my reason.
Andrews needs to run a very strong campaign and turn out huge pluralities in South Jersey in order to win. He's going to lose in North Jersey, and probably by a good margin. Without a blowout win in the south he's got no chance in hell to pull this fight out.
But if there were 5 or 10 people duking it out to get the nomination in NJ1 -- Andrews strongest territory of all -- it would blunt his plurality there. At least one of those people would want to run with Lautenberg, filling out his line with a strong candidate and delivering reverse coat-tail votes up ticket. Others would not align at all.
Further, the fight would drown out Andrews in NJ1 and become a major campaign issue throughout the state in a "Look at the chaos he caused by running!" kind of way. It's a fun story because the traditional media loves to cover a fight instead of issues, and Andrews' positions and retail campaign would be drowned out in the rest of the state.
This is the same reason Andrews wants debates, so that he can get face time about his issues and Lautenberg's age. Having a "civil war" in the NJ1 vacuum he created would have totally blunted any effort to talk about why he is running or why Lautenberg is too old, and destroyed his candidacy.
The only solution at that late date was to promise all the people interested in the seat a chance after the primary to go in front of the NJ1 county committee members to win the seat in a fair, if undemocratic, fight.
And the only way to do that was to put someone on the ballot with the party line who had no interest in actually getting the nomination.
And the person he can trust the most is Camile Andrews, so she got the nod.
But now he has promised the entire state that he is running for US Senate and not for the House, and he has promised many powerful people in the district that they will have a fair shot at the seat.
Were he to take the seat at this point he would be seen as an untrustworthy turncoat and lose the support of those powerful people for any future statewide run. Anyone who knows or has even watched Andrews for a while knows that what he wants is a statewide gig, primarily Drumthwacket.
And he can't do that without the powerful Democrats of NJ1, or with the tag of someone who is so ambitious he put his wife on the ballot as a hedge against losing a nomination fight that was a long-shot to begin with.
That's why he can't take the seat back when he loses to Lautenberg: the blow to his support in NJ1 Democratic circles and the tag as an ambitious politician willing to say anything and do anything to keep power would prevent him from ever getting what he wants: statewide office.
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