Below are the 3Q fundraising totals that each presidential candidate raised in NJ. Clinton blew everyone else away, beating NJ GOP darling Rudy Giuliani by a quarter million dollars. She raised three times more than her nearest Democratic rival Barack Obama. Surprisingly, Edwards comes in fourth with about $100,000, behind Bill Richardson with $125,000.
The fundraising totals for the Democrats closely follow the polls in state. The latest Quinnipiac poll showed Clinton leading with 45% of the vote - three times that of Obama's 15% and Edwards with just 7% (other polls have similar margins).
Happy September 5th! All of the loyal Tsunami Tuesday states are entering the homestretch. There are only five months -- some 153 days -- until New Jersey holds it presidential primary.
"Someone else" and refused to answer got 1% each. The margin of error is about 5%.
So can anyone but Hillary Clinton win the race here? She is even ahead of her national numbers. Back in March 2006, she polled 48%, so she is unchanged since then. On the other hand, they did ask Clinton voters if they are "very sure about voting for Clinton; or might you change your mind before the primary?" 51% of Clinton voters (and 46% Democrats overall) are very sure, and 48% (52% overall) might change. That suggests to me that there is plenty of room for someone who runs a good campaign and wins in the early states to jump past Clinton.
But there's no doubt Clinton is in a enviable position, and seems to be guaranteed to finish at least second even in the unlikely case she loses all her weak supporters.
(I've started a new blog to discuss national politics, history and other events that interest me, called Public Ledger. One of the things I'll be doing is making video entries from time to time, so here is one such effort discussing the Democratic candidates' response to question on marriage equality, and why popular misconceptions are making it harder to achieve. Thanks!)
(last one to vote is a rotten egg! - promoted by Jay Lassiter)
Once again, it's the fifth of the month and time for our 2008 Presidential Strawpoll!
This one is a bit different because I took out the "Don't know" option. By now, there have been several debates and detailed policy positions released, so most of us have a fairly good idea of who the candidates are and what they stand for. Over the next few months, your support can and probably will change. But let's get a snapshot at where you are today, okay? So have at it below and please leave your thoughts in the comments.
Here at Blue Jersey, the fifth of May means two things: Cinco de Mayo and our Fourth Monthly Presidential Strawpoll!!! Only 8 more to go before the real thing!
The New York Times has updated its Presidential big donor maps based on the FEC disclosure reports. As I did earlier for the New Jersey Republican big donors, I've made a table with the breakdown into North Jersey (zip codes 07000-07999) and Central/South Jersey (08000-08999). Again, I caution you that only people who gave $250 or more are included. [Update: I forgot to say that numbers are in thousands of dollars.]
Obama and Edwards are pretty comparable in New Jersey. Clinton beats both of them put together. There's no doubt she is very formidable here in New Jersey. Richardson badly underperforms compared to his national numbers, while nearby senators Dodd and Biden do fairly well in comparison.
Last month's results are here, along with February's results. As he has not come forward with his intentions, Wes Clark is no longer included in this poll.
Hillary Clinton 37% [43%] Barack Obama 23% [20%] John Edwards 9% [9%] Joe Biden 9% [7%] Bill Richardson 6% [4%] Chris Dodd 2% Dennis Kucinich 1% [2%] Undecided 14% [13%]
I haven't found data from previous months so I can't say much about the trend, but I would have expected Clinton to be further ahead. The number in brackets is how the votes of unaffiliated "likely primary voters" breaks down.
Note - ARG has different numbers posted on their front page showing Edwards tied with Biden at 9%. ARG can't explain the discrepancy and someone is "looking into it." If this changes the above analysis, I'll post an update.
Update: ARG has updated their website with new numbers. Joe Biden and John Edwards are tied at 9%.
(I had been planning to post this yesterday, and forgot. Here it is a day late!)
We are now less than a year away from New Jersey's projected Democratic Presidential Primary. This is the first of what will become a monthly strawpoll, with the last one to take place on February 5, 2008. Candidates are listed in alphabetical order and the position will rotate every month.
UPDATE: After a day and a half, this poll is called at 68 votes (all further results are void). And John Edwards is the overwhelming victor.
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson heads to Bloggers' Row at the 2007 DNC Winter Meeting.
Also, our new friend and DNC Delegate from Colorado, Debbie Marquez, took this photo of Governor Richardson's boots. We look forward to seeing Debbie in her home state for the 2008 DNC Convention.
