Tag Archive: jeb bush

QoTD: Posse Comitatus

Quote of the Day to Dem political operative Mike Premo, alum of NJ and now chief of staff for Ohio Senate Dems. You’ll recognize the quote. “In future, if you’re wondering, ‘Crime. Boy. I dunno’ is when I decided to…
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Christie’s candidacy has problems

In the Fox show Gov. Christie held short but colorful debates with Sen. Rand Paul and former Governor Mike Huckabee where he made points and got attention, but so did they in their responses. He appeared awkward at times, not as smooth or in control as at his “Town Halls.” He displayed his trademark anger but that may not help his image as a future president in the minds of moderates, Republican elite leaders, or mega donors.

He is doing poorly in conservative states. In the most recent polls his ranking in Florida is 13th, Georgia 9th, South Carolina 9th, Iowa 14th, and Minnesota 9th. His niche is in the more moderate areas where he has to compete with former Governor Jeb Bush and now Governor John Kasich. Bush in the debates was a wuss but he has raised over $100 million. Kasich who is new in the race did very well as a moderate, will not succeed with most conservatives, but can take votes away from Christie.

Christie’s current strategy is to win or do very well in New Hampshire. In the average of the five most recent polls he is currently ranked 5th behind both Bush and Kasich. It’s “do or die” there as he lacks the big money needed to buy expensive ads in the later primaries. A success here would make him more appealing to the elite Republican leadership and most importantly could attract some mega-million donors. A failure could doom him.  

QOTD: There are more insider Republicans that are waiting to defect…

Is New Jersey for Jeb instead of Chris? We learned recently that longtime Christie BFF and ally Joe Kyrillos is on Team Bush. Now Politicker has a story up today about a fundraiser being planned and organized by Republicans for Jeb Bush this coming June and check out this quote from the story:

“These are more insider Republicans that are waiting to defect to Jeb,” the source said. “At a potential kickoff fundraiser for Bush in June, you will see many familiar New Jersey faces stepping up to the plate and coming out to support him.”

Oh to be a fly on the wall for Team Christie these days as his past allies move on from him to make new friends.  

Christie’s trajectory in presidential polls

Presidential primaries start about nine months from now. Nine months ago Governor Christie was riding high, but his trajectory since then has been downward. According to Real Clear Politics which provides a summary of presidential polls, in July last year Gov. Christie led the pack of contenders in a CNN poll by one point over Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee. Perry was 4th, Bush was 5th, and Walker was 6th. Since then Christie has dropped, and both Bush and Walker have risen. This does not presage well for him in the early primaries where a victory is important to propel him forward.

How times have changed. Below the fold is his poll trajectory over the past six months, leading him downward to 6th place. Included also are data in states holding early primaries and caucuses.

Christie & the Wild, Wild West of Mega Political Donations

In the last presidential race Super PACs started later in the process. Now they have begun operating before individuals even announce their presidential candidacy. The Washington Post explains, “That’s because once they announce their bids, federal rules require them to keep their distance.” The Republican leader of the pack appears to be Jeb Bush who is is headlining $100,000-a-head fundraisers with the hope of gaining an unassailable early lead. Paul S. Ryan, senior counsel at the Campaign Legal Center, says, “We’re seeing a bending and an abuse and an evasion of federal campaign contribution limits to an extent that we’ve never before seen.” However, a sharply divided Federal Election Commission has deadlocked over whether to even open up enforcement investigations since the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision in 2010.

Gov. Christie who has yet to announce his candidacy has jumped into this Wild, Wild West world with both a Political Action Committee, which can accept up to $5,000 from donors, and a Super PAC, which can accept an unlimited amount. The Political Action Committee, LEADERSHIP MATTERS, was registered with the FEC in January by Christie confidante Bill Palatucci. According to Bloomberg News “It has lured 41 donors.” At no more than $5,000 a pop it is not much to brag about so far. The Super PAC AMERICA LEADS was registered in late February by Treasurer Timothy Koch and is headed by Phil Cox, former executive director of the Republican Governors Association where Christie served as Chair last year. Each group have set up staff with Cox serving on both. There is no report yet from the FEC on donations from either group.

Christie is fully engaged and making use of what some political consultants might call “best practices,” but others concerned about mega donations would call “worst practices.” So far he is way behind in the polls, and it appears he is not doing particularly well in raising funds. Recent news in New Jersey regarding court actions on the Pension Fund and affordable housing, combined with further revelations on close Christie associates involved with Bridgegate and the Exxon Mobile settlement are probably not helping him.  

Chris Christie’s Double Standard On Bush Cronyism

promoted by Rosi

As the Christie for President 2016 bus hits heavy traffic some of us longtime Christie observers are finding glory in the evening. All the old critiques – shady travel arrangements, irresponsible public statements, possible pay to play violations – once sequestered in dirty Jersey newsrooms and blogs – have escaped their local confinement into the national consciousness. Chris Christie has grown and matured to become the nation's fake reformer.

So while we can commiserate with our fellow Americans getting a first long look past the image to the real Chris Christie and being reasonably horrified, we also, due to knowing what we know, have the benefit of appreciating the finer points of the insanity of a Christie presidential run.

One tidbit that only a close observer of the 2009 New Jersey gubernatorial race is likely to appreciate is Team Christie's current push back against Jeb Bush detailed in yesterday's Washington Post. The Post story comes amid a slew of bad news for Governor Downgrade as Republican donors and supporters slowly back away and recognize they need to find a better candidate to have any hope in 2016.


Christie campaign: We didn’t invite Bush, our host committee did

The Christie campaign would like you to believe that they got an unexpected guest to their fundraiser last night:

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, the brother of former President George W. Bush,  turned up to a fundraiser for Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie tonight.  

“He was invited by one of the host committee members,” said Christie spokeswoman Maria Comella.

The host committee member reached out to Bush directly and did not check with the Christie campaign.

I love the way the story is written.  They make it sound like Jeb Bush just turned up at the fundraiser, SURPRISE!

A few things. First, I flat out do not believe that you invite the brother of the former President/former Governor in his own right without running it by the campaign. Second, not checking doesn’t mean they didn’t notify the campaign of Bush’s potential attendance. I can’t believe that Jeb Bush just walks into a fundraiser by himself without the campaign knowing and preparing. And it doesn’t matter who invited him, he was there for Christie. By this measure, if it was George Bush they’d probably say the parking attendant brought him.