Tag Archive: 2010

Adler-Runyan Poll: Yes, it’s a toss-up

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Press Media Poll (PDF) have given us the second poll of New Jersey’s Third Congressional District this week, and it looks just like Eagleton’s (41-39) poll :

More voters approve than disapprove of the job freshman Congressman John Adler is doing, but enough voters are looking for change in Washington that challenger Jon Runyan is within striking distance.

With five weeks to go before Election Day, the poll of likely voters found the incumbent with a narrow lead within the poll’s margin of error – 42% for Democrat Adler to 39% for Republican Runyan, with 13% undecided. Adler leads by 48% to 35% in the Burlington and Camden Counties portion of the district, while Runyan has a 44% to 34% advantage among Ocean County voters.

In related questions, Adler’s job approval is 49-34.  DeStefano is at 4%.  Click through to see various breakdowns on issues, which are all pretty even.  (Also, see third poll below the break.)

Adler-Runyan race is a toss-up

Swing State Project points us to this research poll of NJ3 (PDF) for the Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics.

Professor Redlawsk tells us on his blog:

Still, as the release below shows, Adler is in reasonable position for an incumbent Democrat in a marginal seat given the prevailing winds of 2010. He seems to be so because most likely voters in the district actually say they prefer experience over an outsider and because he is seen somewhat more favorably than is his opponent Republican Jon Runyan.

He has a detailed discussion of the likely voter screen. The likely voter sample is 41-39-6 for Adler-Runyan-DeStafano. Adler has a nine point lead 40-31-6 with registered voters. Turnout looks to be killing Democrats, as Obama’s twitter feed suggested yesterday:

The other side is counting on you staying home this Nov. They’re counting on your silence. They are betting on your apathy. Prove them wrong

An Update on my Campaign

I wanted to pull this onto the front page, because its author, candidate Stephen Yellin, is a blogger of longstanding. In fact he was one of the original Blue Jerseyans when he was still a teenager. Wishing him luck on his race. – Rosi

[crossposted from DailyKos]

Hello all,

Four months ago, I set out on an unusual political journey.

It was unusual because, unlike all the campaigns I had worked on before, the campaign I was working on was my own. In April, I filed to run for Township Council in my hometown of Berkeley Heights, New Jersey. I decided to run because now was the right time in my life to try and give back to my community in the way I knew best – through public service. With three months to go until Election Day, I wanted to give you an update on how my campaign is going.

My campaign website

NJ Courier-News candidate statement

More bloggers throwing hats in ring (see page 2)

Polls and the Adler-Runyan Race

We’re fortunate that Rutgers Professor David Redlawsk has arranged for the first independent poll of poll of the NJ3 Congressional Race, widely believed to be the most (only?) competitive one this year. Incumbent John Adler, who has positioned himself as a conservative Democrat, faces Jon Runyan, who is a famous football player but so far seems to know very little about policy. The full PDF is available here. The headline is that Representative Adler leads in the poll, although with only 421 registered voters the margin of error is an uncomfortably larger 4.8 percent.

Likely Voters: Adler 40, Runyan 30, Don’t Know 22, Won’t Vote in this race 8

Registered Voters: Adler 35, Runyan 28, Don’t Know 23, Won’t Vote 13

There are other permutations of the question, but I think these are two most important. On the one hand, Adler is ahead. On the other, he is way under 50%, a sign of danger for an incumbent. In July, Adler released an internal poll where he lead by 17 (51-34)  Statistically, such poll announcements favor the releaser by an extra 6-7% or so.  (That is, Adler or Runyan would only release polls that happen to show unusually large/lucky leads, while our faithful Professor releases all results.)  17-7=10, so you might call the polls in good agreement with my proposed correction. Runyan has not released anything, so it now does seem likely Adler is ahead.

Other “generic” polls of New Jersey suggest that other Democratic incuments should be fine:

Monmouth: Own Congressman Favorable-Unfavorable: 54 – 28 (July)

Rutgers Democratic Districts: 41-22 (February)

Rutgers Statewide Generic: 33-31 (February)

FDU Statewide Generic: 47-39 (February)

Nationally the picture is more grim. In 2008, Democrats nationwide won the House vote by 8.9% They are currently trailing nationwide by 4.7% according to TPM’s Poll Tracker calculation. Obama won NJ3 52-47, and Adler won 52-48. A twelve point swing would obviously bring Runyan to victory, and indeed Christie did win the district according to Redlawsk.  On the other hand, the latest NBC/WSJ poll shows a huge (55-30) lead for Democrats in the Northeast, so the devastating swings may be elsewhere.  

Pascrell: “What the hell do they think we’ve been doing”

Tensions are high in Washington these days as campaigns gear up for the fall elections and many members face the challenge of a tough climate to run in. So you can imagine how happy members of the House were when Robert Gibbs said this on Meet the Press recently:

“there is no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control”

Of course many people have been talking behind closed doors about the possibility, but it didn’t sit well with everyone that the spokesman for the White House was giving such a candid assessment of the road ahead. One member of the New Jersey delgeation was not pleased at all and his thoughts made it into Chris Cilizza’s story in the Washington Post today:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) led a closed-door meeting of Democratic members that amounted to an extended Gibbs smackdown — the proceedings of which inevitably were leaked to the media. In a subsequent interview, Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr. (N.J.) nicely summed up the sentiment in the room. “What the hell do they think we’ve been doing the last 12 months?” he said of the White House. “We’re the ones who have been taking the tough votes.”

Additional comments from Pascrell made it in the Hill newspaper and on Meet the Press this morning:

pascrell-white-house

DCCC Chair Van Hollen tried to back things up and present a unified front, saying the Democratic Leadership had a positive meeting with the President. Van Hollen did acknowledge that there was some frustration, but it’s clear that tensions are high as we head toward the general.

Menendez appears on Meet the Press

Senator Menendez appeared this morning on Meet the Press with David Gregory in his role as DSCC chairman. They were joined by his counterpart at the RSCC and the heads of the RCCC and DCCC to talk about the upcoming 2010 election.

You can see the segments of the show here:

‘Change is in the air,’ says Rep. Sessions

What was the impact of Gibbs’ House remark?

Obama ‘absolutely’ an asset, says Van Hollen

What will GOP agenda be if it regains power?

Cornyn: ‘Slanderous’ to accuse Tea party of racism

Will Dems hold House? Lawmakers’ predictions

RNC, DNC chairs make ’74 midterm predictions

Following his appearance, this is what the Senator had to say via tweet:

On Meet the Press, my Republican colleagues couldn’t name a single difference than what they did under the Bush economic agenda. More debtless than a minute ago via UberTwitter

Budget passes Assembly and Senate

budgetinbriefOn Monday night, the Senate passed the $29.4 billion 2011 budget by a 21-19 vote. The Assembly passed it just after 1am by a 41-39 vote. Democrats provided the 8 votes in the Assembly and 4 votes in the Senate will all Republicans towing the party line. Now it’s on to the Governor’s desk for him to sign a budget that raises taxes, even if he won’t admit it. He has scheduled a 1pm bill signing today in South River. Here is a list of Assembly Democrats who went along with the budget:

Nelson Albano (D-Vineland), Upendra Chivukula (D-Franklin Twp.), Albert Coutinho (D-Newark), Joe Cryan (D-Union Twp.), Matt Milam (D-Vineland), Assembly SPeaker Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange), Ruben Ramos (D-Hoboken), and Caridad Rodriguez (D-West New York).

Democrats in the Senate providing votes were the budget were Teresa Ruiz, Jeff Van Drew, Sandra Cunningham and Brian Stack.

All day, Republicans were busy patting themselves on the back, singing their own praises and clumsily defending the choices they made. Democrats were decrying the final budget product and priorities, calling out tax increases and trying to frame the budget as only continuing the problems of our state placing a greater burden on those who can least afford it.

That will be the debate in the upcoming election along with the property tax problem. What is your reaction to the budget process and the end result?

Headed to a recount in the 6th

Congressman Frank Pallone doesn’t know who his opponent is for sure in November yet. It may be a little time before he knows as we’re headed for a recount in the 6th district primary:

“A recount is the only legal mechanism we have to secure confidence in the result, ensuring that no errors in the tabulation of votes have taken place,” said Gooch Campaign Manager Tony Sayegh. “There are also some specific concerns we have about the treatment of Vote By Mail ballot requests, the security and custody of election materials, and electronic data cartridges arriving with error messages that must be investigated further. This will be done as expeditiously as possible; we look forward to determining a winner in the near future.”

Anna Little currently holds a 6,804 to 6,720 lead over Diane Gooch with all the provisional ballots counted. The Little campaign is confident they’ll maintain their lead:

Little, a tea party-backed candidate who raised one-twentieth the amount of campaign funds Gooch did, doubted Gooch could overcome the 84 vote deficit when most were recorded on electronic machines.

“She has the right to do that,” she said. “I don’t believe it’s going to change anything.”

If you want to know how big of a surprise the election results were, Zach Fink noted today that the Governor was supposed to even be headed to Gooch headquarters on election night until the numbers started looking bad and he did a detour to Runyan headquarters. And so the primary continues.  

New Jersey 2010 Primaries results thread

Note: Updates are at the bottom of the post

Results are coming in from around the state.  House results at NJ.com:

At 9:02PM, Runyan at 6022 (55%) to Murphy at 4887 (45%). Not a strong showing by Runyan but a lead is a lead.

In NJ6, Little at 2,806 (53%) leads Gooch at 2448 (47%.) I find that surprising. It is 25% Reporting.

Lance is at only 56% but easily leads the nearest of his challengers.  Just 5% reporting there.

Adler is at 77% with 26% reporting.

There are lots of interesting primaries in other states — I recommend Swing State Project, Talking Points Memo, and Daily Kos.

Update (9:14pm): Forgot to check NJ12, where teabagger Corsi leads Sipprelle 55%-45% with 19% reporting.  

Update (9:42) Runyan wins 56% to 44% with 98% reporting. Little still leads Gooch and Corsi still leads Sipprelle, but lots of districts still to report.

Update (9:58): Sipprelle just pulled ahead by a few hundred votes with 63% reporting.  Little has a nearly eight hundred vote lead with 43% reporting.

Update (10:13): Sipprelle remains ahead 6,506 to 6,113 with 71% reporting.  Little leads 5,639 to 4,981 with 64% reporting. I have no idea what districts are still out and whom they would favor.

Update (10:30) Gooch keeps creeping closer, but Little still leads 6000 to 5568 with 77% reporting. This is going to be very close.

Sipprelle is still leading.

Update (10:48) Photo finish coming! Little 6171, Gooch 5866 with 86% reporting.  

Update (11:10) The AP/NJ.com results say it’s Little 6674 to Gooch 6579 with 99% reporting. Contradictory headlines have flashed by at PolitickerNJ but I think the small Little lead is correct. I imagine there will be a recount but it looks like Little will just barely make it.

Sipprelle pulled away in the late reporting districts and ended up winning 8,800 (54%) to 7521 (46%).  

Update (11:46) I should say Runyan ended up with 60%, better than the earlier reports.  

Americans have more opportunities to vote… but we’re oblivious to it

Did you know we have a primary tomorrow? If so, you’re a part of 14% of the people who know they have the chance to vote tomorrow:

New Jersey voters are barely aware that they have chance to vote the bums out-or in again, as they wish-on a balmy Tuesday in June, according to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind™. In that survey, fourteen percent correctly noted that the next time the public would have an opportunity to vote would be the state’s June primary election.

Most voters (48%) thought the next time would be in November. A few (4%) figured they’d have to wait until the 2012 presidential election. Many said they just didn’t know (30%).

Republicans are more aware of the chance to vote tomorrow with 20% of them knowing the next opportunity, compared to just 13% of Democrats and 6% of independents:

“Americans have more opportunities to vote than any other people in the world,” said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll. “But we’re oblivious to it.”

In low turnout elections, it comes down to the campaigns that are able to motivate people to the polls. You wonder if any of the estbalishment challengers will be taken by surprise from the enthusiasm behind some of the tea party candidates. It’s becoming increasingly clear that not being as crazy as the tea party activists is not a good enough message for Democratic candidates to use to get their people to the polls