Tag Archive: FDU

FDU/ Public Mind Poll Has Clinton Up 10 Nationally

Farleigh Dickinson’s Public Mind Poll has Democrat Hillary Clinton hitting the magical 50% level nationally with a 10 point lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump who sits at a terrible 40%. With Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein included…
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FDU/Public Mind: Christie’s approvals down 9%

Today’s latest FDU/Public Mind poll reveals that Governor Chris Christie’s job approval rating has slipped nine points in the last month to 43% approve to 32% disapprove.  

“It’s a bad time to be governor of any state,” said Peter Woolley, the poll’s director. “You’re damned if you cut the budget and damned if you raise taxes.”

Sure it’s a bad time to be governor.   As the economy continues to contract and state revenue slumps, decades of poor budgeting decisions are coming home to roost.  All we need do is ask former Governor Jon Corzine, who addressed the challenge head on by introducing back to back budgets that reduced state spending but still found himself on the receiving end of voter anger last November.  

Whether Christie intends to follow through on his promise to “turn Trenton upside down” remains to be seen, but this morning’s results make clear that many New Jerseyans do not ascribe to his trickledown theory of economics.  48% of respondents oppose Christie’s plan to break his campaign promise and end property tax rebates while an even larger 62% are in favor of increasing taxes on the very wealthy.  

This morning’s news provides Democrats with an opening to highlight our own reform agenda that focuses on ending some of the gross excesses of government (e.g., bipartisan pension reform) while also opposing Republican efforts to enact fiscal policy favoring the super rich.

Democratic lawmakers are still adjusting to the reality of a Republican Governor.  Yet New Jersey is still blue and the majority of state residents agree that key to our recovery will be support for the middle class.  It may be a bad time to be governor, but for today at least, it’s not such a bad time to be a progressive.  

The timing of my calling bull$h!t on Sen. Kean is just “happenstance”

As Hopeful notes below, a new poll by FDU shows (1) a dead heat between Senator Menendez and Tom Kean, Jr. for a race that is over two years from now, and (2) a very mixed bag on what people in NJ think about health care reform.  

As Hopeful notes, 42% of New Jerseyans think that they personally will be worse off if the current health care reform bill passes, while 37% feel that they personally will be better off if the current health care reform bill passes.  However, that 5% spread is reversed when the question is asked about the country as a whole, with a 45% – 40% margin indicating that the current health care bill will be better for the country.  Adding to this, there is a 5% margin (40% against, 35% for, 25% don’t know) when it comes to whether respondents would urge THEIR member of Congress to vote for or against ANY health care bill.

In response to all of this, Kean finds the one way to interpret these numbers that is made up of fairy dust:

“Our United States Senators should finally listen to the majority of New Jerseyans  and support a fresh approach to reforming our health insurance industry.”

What’s more, Kean said that the suspicious timing of his pontificating was merely “happenstance”.

Now, say what you want about the current health care bill – there certainly is more than enough things to like and dislike about the bill on an individual level, but the one thing that can NOT be said is what Kean is asserting about “a fresh approach”.  It is either (1) is this bill good for me, (2) is this bill good for the rest of the country or (3) do you want your Congressman to vote for ANY bill.  If Kean wants to be taken seriously, then he should actually say things that are accurate – especially when it comes to issues that he claims to represent “the majority of New Jerseyans” on and issues where he hopes to represent all of New Jerseyans.

When reached for comment, Adam L a/k/a clammyc noted that the timing of this post was merely “happenstance”.

Obama to campaign for Corzine at FDU

The President is coming back to New Jersey for the Governor.  According to a press release from the campaign, the doors will open at 3pm for a rally with President Obama and Governor Corzine on Wednesday, October 21. The rally will be held at the Rothman Center on the campus of Fairleigh Dickinson University and the campaign said they will release more details in the coming days.

The President was last here for Governor Corzine on July 16 in Holmdel. Vice President Biden was in Atlantic City with the Governor last week. Over at PNJ, Wally says that the Corzine campaign has asked the White House for another visit from the President just before Election day.

NPR, Woolley Misinform Public

I was listening to NPR on my way home from Dad’s PI office, and heard one of the female anchors interviewing Dr. Peter Woolley of Farleigh Dickinson University about the NJ gubernatorial race.  Woolley is a poli sci professor and the head of the FDU/Public Mind poll, so you’d figure he’d know what he was talking about.

Turns out, no.

The first thing that caught me up was he talked about Brian Levine as a “very popular mayor of a small town.”  Levine is from Franklin Twp. in Somerset, which has about 53,000 people in it and is growing all the time.  Not exactly a small town like, say, Steve Lonegan who is the former Mayor of Bogota which has fewer than 9,000 residents.

Then Woolley started talking about Chris Christie, and he said something truly stupefying for a political science professor from Morris County: “Chris Christie’s political experience is pretty much limited to the US Attorney’s office.”  Ummmm, no.

Chris Christie was a Freeholder in Morris County, ran for Assembly in a primary in Morris County, then was defeated for reelection to the Freeholder board after slandering his opponents.  He was also a Ranger for George Bush, which means he raised $100,000 or more for him in $2,000.

This is a lot of political experience outside of the US Attorney’s office.

But even more shocking is what Woolley didn’t say.  On the day that it breaks in philly.com that one of the multi-million dollar no-bid contracts was given out to the US Attorney who declined to prosecute Christie’s brother Todd for admitted insider trading Woolley had nothing to say.  He mentioned Christie’s crusade against corruption, but nothing about Christie’s own taint.

All in all, it was a poor performance that showed a superficial understanding of NJ’s politics fit more for a thirty second segment of Fox than a five minute segment on NPR.

FDU Poll: Clinton Leads Obama ??%-??%

Update: I updated the title because this poll doesn’t really predict who will win the primaries. Digging down into the numbers, Clinton leads 45%-30% among Democrats, but Obama leads 16%-9% among independents (44% are undecided, 13% for McCain, etc). The poll didn’t try to model who would be voting in the Democratic or Republican primary, so if unaffiliated voters turn out in large numbers, who knows what will happen. I think these numbers aren’t too meaningful on their own in terms of predicting the outcome, so take them with a grain of salt.

In the latest Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among likely Democratic primary voters by 45%-30%. That 15 point lead is similar to Clinton’s 41%-27% lead in FDU’s previous poll (1/22). John Edwards has the support of 6% of voters, a slight drop from 9% in the previous poll.

Fairleigh Dickinson University (1/20-1/27 MoE+/-5%) (1/22 results in parenthesis)

Hillary Clinton 45% (41%)

Barack Obama    30% (27%)

John Edwards     6% (9%)

John McCain now leads with 29% of the vote from likely Republican voters, while Rudy 9uiliani and Mike Huckabee battle for second place with 20% and 15%, respectively. 9ui11iani is stalling while McCain and Huckabee pick up support.

John McCain    29% (23%)

Rudy 9ui11iani 20% (20%)

Mike Huckabee  15% (10%)

This latest poll was conducted over a week between January 20-27.

FDU Presidential Primary Poll

Fairleigh Dickinson University’s latest presidential primary poll among New Jersey voters is out today. The winners are Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Rudy Giuliani. The losers this month are John Edwards and John McCain who each lost 3 points from their January numbers.

Also, Bill Richardson’s support grew by an astronomical 200%.

March January
Hillary Clinton 46% (41%)
Barack Obama 18% (15%)
John Edwards 10% (13%)
Joe Biden 5% (4%)
Bill Richardson 3% (1%)
 
March January
Rudy Giuliani 59% (48%)
John McCain 20% (23%)
Mitt Romney 6% (2%)

New Jersey Loves New Yorkers

According to an FDU poll, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani lead the way among Democratic and Republican primary voters in New Jersey. Both had 100% name recognition. 41% of Democrats say they would support Clinton while 48% of Republicans chose Guiliani. Runner-up for the Democrats was Barack Obama with 15% and John Edwards at 13%. On the Republican side, 23% support McCain. The poll has a huge +/-6% and 7% margin of error.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have 72% and 70% approval ratings, though Obama’s name recognition is only 74% at the moment.

New Jersey’s primary will likely be moved up to February 5th and be one of the first states to weigh in on the issue.

Who do you support in the primary right now? Take the poll below.

Stick a Fork in It

Republicans’ chances, that is. A piping hot FDU poll reveals just how disappointed New Jerseyans are with the Republican administration and their disasterous decisions. Last month’s poll results are in parenthesis.

Country going in right direction or wrong track?

  Right direction: 22% (26)
  Wrong track: 69% (64)

Bush’s job approval rating:

  Excellent/Good: 26% (29)
  Only fair/Poor: 72% (70)

How well is military effort in Iraq going?

  Very well/Fairly well: 27% (33)
  Not too well/Not at all well: 70% (64)

Going to Iraq: right thing or mistake?

  Right thing: 30% (33)
  Mistake: 65% (59)

Tom Kean Jr, Mike Ferguson and every other Republican running this year can’t be happy about these numbers. This election has always been about Iraq, and they all refuse to admit what the entire state and indeed country already knows to be fact: this war was wrong. We don’t have time for wishy-washy critiques about “mistakes” that were made. We’re so far beyond that. We want accountability, and we know we won’t get it from this bunch.