Tag Archive: 2008 Presidential Primary Results

Wisconsin/Hawaii Results & More

NBC calls Wisconsin for Obama. Sorry, Wisconsin….you’ve now joined the ranks of states that officially don’t matter. Clinton started speaking and again didn’t congratulate Obama. Gotta wonder if that’s why he took the stage early and cut her off. (on second thought, it was probably done to preempt her “major” speech planned for tonight)

Clinton has to win huge on Parade Day or it’s over for her.

Polls were predicting a +4% margin for Obama, but with 90% of the votes in, he’s got about a +17% lead. These are New Hampshire-like levels of poll wrongness.

Wisconsin (99% reporting), 74 delegates

    Obama:   58%     42 delegates

    Clinton: 41%     31 delegates

Hawaii (100% reporting), 20 delegates

    Obama:   76%     14 delegates

    Clinton: 24%     6 delegates

Random tangent. Today me and 200+ other people received an email from a major NJ Clinton fundraiser that attacked Obama by showing photos of Obama’s volunteers in front of a Che Guevara banner. That was apparently evidence of “how left/liberal Obama and his supporters are.” It’s a six-degrees-of-separation-type attack that smells of desperation, but it’s more silly than anything. I bet even Hillary would agree with that.

Hillary Clinton

Unofficial New Jersey Results

Using the Unofficial New Jersey results and my understanding of the 20 district elections, I have computed the delegate break-downs.  I get an eleven delegate advantage for Clinton amongst the 107 delegates decided by the election.  Clinton took one of the even districts 3-1 and the rest were split equally.  Obama managed to take three of the ten odd districts.  Specifically:

Dist Tot. Del. Clinton Votes Obama Votes Clinton Share Clinton Delegates Obama Delegates
1 3 25246 19784 0.5606 2 1
2 4 36601 23830 0.6057 2 2
3 4 41218 30589 0.5740 2 2
4 4 34120 32230 0.5142 2 2
5 3 29323 15672 0.6517 2 1
6 4 23183 18994 0.5497 2 2
7 4 30819 21474 0.5894 2 2
8 4 32013 34324 0.4826 2 2
9 3 21908 20067 0.5219 2 1
10 3 30805 28345 0.5208 2 1
11 3 30814 21040 0.5942 2 1
12 3 27838 30416 0.4779 1 2
13 3 20435 18225 0.5286 2 1
14 4 28045 28777 0.4936 2 2
15 3 25964 32843 0.4415 1 2
16 3 36826 25854 0.5875 2 1
17 4 35924 13467 0.7273 3 1
18 3 27647 31030 0.4712 1 2
19 4 36218 23919 0.6023 2 2
20 4 25946 19329 0.5731 2 2
PLEO 14 597329 487046 0.5509 8 6
At-Large 23 597329 487046 0.5509 13 10
59 48

Warnings:  I spotted two errors in the Unofficial results PDF:  They would not affect this calculation, but there might be other errors.  I may have transcribed the numbers wrong.  CNN.com has higher vote totals than the state does, by a few thousand votes.  I may not understand the rules properly. That said, I think this is basically right.

Oddly enough, you would get 59 delegates for Clinton if you just split the entire slate proportionally. So it turns out ignorance is bliss, or at least just as good.  [Update:  Some explanation below the fold.]