Tag Archive: election results

News roundup and open thread for Wednesday, November 9, 2011

The entire State Assembly and State senate was up for election last night. In the Assembly, 48 Democrats were elected, for a net gain of one. In the Senate, 24 Democrats were elected, for no change. Both chambers remain under the nominal control of the Democratic Party. Governor Christie again failed to help his party, not even meeting the low expectations he tried to set.

The referendum in favor of sports betting passed easily.  Nevertheless, it remains illegal.

Jim Whelan (D) won re-election in the high profile LD2 Senate race, though the Republicans won the Assembly races.

Similarly, the tough races in District 1 were won by Democrats again.

Democrats won both Assembly seats in LD7, offsetting the LD2 loss. Diane Allen (R) won again in the Senate race.

In a new Assembly district (LD3) for him, Republican incumbent DiCiccio (R) lost to incumbent Celeste Riley (D). Democrats picked up the open seat in LD4.

Senator Dick Codey won easily despite a more difficult district for him.

Bergen County’s Bob Gordon (D) won the otherhigh profile battle.

Meet Assemblyman Troy Singleton in the new Blue Jersey interview.

Downballot:

Republicans made local gains in Cape May County.

Control of Salem County slipped away from the Democrats as Republicans picked up an open freeholder seat. On the other hand, Assemblywoman Riley easily won within the county, which she actually trailed in last time. It’s an evenly divided place that likes to split votes.

Democrats also lost of control of Cumberland County despite winning three out of four races.

Democrats did win all the races in Gloucester County freeholder. This race had heavy television advertising for both sides, and Democrats did poorly in recently years.

Democrats also rebounded in Bergen County, winning all county races. (That was not enough to take control of the board.)

The Princetons actually voted to merge. Will more towns follow?

Nationally, right-wing intiatives were defeated.

That’s enough for a roundup. Tell us about your local elections.

2011 Primary Poll Results

Poll are now closed. NJ.com posts election results here. While we’re waiting, I recommend Patrick Murray’s roundup of contested primaries. None of my races were contested but at least we had a candidate for each position!  

8:25: Primary day is a day to celebrate partisanship, so let’s look at Monmouth’s latest poll: Democrats are at 44% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Republicans are at 35% favorable and 54% unfavorable. “11% of the public holds favorable views of both major parties.” Yes, when you walk down enough streets, every ninth person you see actually likes both parties! 35% of the public says they are Democrats and only 21% say they are Republicans.

9:54 Gloucester County turnout just 5.75%, but of course independents wouldn’t vote. Republican turnout was 14.2% and Democrats just 8.37%. Not so impressive, but probably meaningless. Salem County (PDF) results here: turnout was 14.4% for Republicans and over 15% for Democrats

LD25: Republican incumbents win.

LD27: Democratic incumbents win

LD20: Lesniak and other Democratic incumbents win.

(See a trend yet?)

LD1 Republican county chair’s candidates beat the convicted felon.

LD2: Longshot Gary Stein, who sometimes posts here, loses his challenge to the Democratic party’s candidates..

LD14: Another challenger loses to the Republican party candidates.

Election Results

The AP’s compilation of  New Jersey results is here.  CNN has the same NJ data here.

At this moment (9:14PM), the Republicans lead in all three battleground districts. However, we only have Ocean County (NJ3) and Monmouth County (NJ6/NJ12) results plus a bit from Hunterdon (NJ12).  These are Republican strongholds and the results are consistent with the Monmouth University pre-election polls: Runyan eads 59-37 in the Ocean County votes and led 54-37 in the poll. Runyan looks likely to win, but it’s too soon to call.  DeStefano only got 2% in Ocean County so he’s not draining Runyan’s support.  I’m nervous about Holt but he was expected to do badly in Monmouth.  

Update: Holt (NJ12) and Pallone (NJ6) both win.  Right now they are 51%-48% and 55%-44% respectively but not all districts are in.

New Jersey 2010 Primaries results thread

Note: Updates are at the bottom of the post

Results are coming in from around the state.  House results at NJ.com:

At 9:02PM, Runyan at 6022 (55%) to Murphy at 4887 (45%). Not a strong showing by Runyan but a lead is a lead.

In NJ6, Little at 2,806 (53%) leads Gooch at 2448 (47%.) I find that surprising. It is 25% Reporting.

Lance is at only 56% but easily leads the nearest of his challengers.  Just 5% reporting there.

Adler is at 77% with 26% reporting.

There are lots of interesting primaries in other states — I recommend Swing State Project, Talking Points Memo, and Daily Kos.

Update (9:14pm): Forgot to check NJ12, where teabagger Corsi leads Sipprelle 55%-45% with 19% reporting.  

Update (9:42) Runyan wins 56% to 44% with 98% reporting. Little still leads Gooch and Corsi still leads Sipprelle, but lots of districts still to report.

Update (9:58): Sipprelle just pulled ahead by a few hundred votes with 63% reporting.  Little has a nearly eight hundred vote lead with 43% reporting.

Update (10:13): Sipprelle remains ahead 6,506 to 6,113 with 71% reporting.  Little leads 5,639 to 4,981 with 64% reporting. I have no idea what districts are still out and whom they would favor.

Update (10:30) Gooch keeps creeping closer, but Little still leads 6000 to 5568 with 77% reporting. This is going to be very close.

Sipprelle is still leading.

Update (10:48) Photo finish coming! Little 6171, Gooch 5866 with 86% reporting.  

Update (11:10) The AP/NJ.com results say it’s Little 6674 to Gooch 6579 with 99% reporting. Contradictory headlines have flashed by at PolitickerNJ but I think the small Little lead is correct. I imagine there will be a recount but it looks like Little will just barely make it.

Sipprelle pulled away in the late reporting districts and ended up winning 8,800 (54%) to 7521 (46%).  

Update (11:46) I should say Runyan ended up with 60%, better than the earlier reports.  

Non-Partisan Election Results

As if it’s not enough to have major elections every November, we also have the non-partisan municipal elections tonight.  

NJ.com has Essex County results. At this time (10:14pm) votes are still being counted in Newark but Booker has a large lead that looks safe to me. Booker tweets that “8 of our 9 council people look to be also headed 2 victory.” I see that with 30 of 40 districts reporting in the South Ward Ras Baraka has 3370 and incumbent Oscar S. James II* has 2291 votes. In the East Ward race challenger Peter Pantoliano is trailing incumbent Augusto Amador, 1479-2682. (12:08. I don’t know why there are only 160 of 163 districts but I’m going to bed and I bet the election website people did too. Booker wins with 21242 to Minor’s 12670. The other two add up to 2018.  John Sharpe James fell short as the incumbent at-large council members were re-elected. Amador won the East, Baraka the South, Ronald C. Rice the West, Ramos the North, and Bell the Central Ward.) (Final update: Oops, Bell didn’t get 50% so there’s a runoff.)

PolitickerNJ also has a useful summary. Long Branch Mayor Schneider won despite Solomon Dwek’s late intervention. State Senator Brian Stack was re-elected mayor of Union City. A victory for dual-office holders everywhere, I suppose.

Any results you are interested in?

In a big upset, Patterson Mayor Torres lost to challenger Jeffery Jones. Northjersey.com notes that the 598 vote victory was despite the mayor’s nearly one million dollar warchest.

In Bridgeton, challenger Albert Kelly beat the incumbent mayor. He’ll be the first African-American mayor of Bridgeton.

Your Trenton Results are here. Mack has 2,302 (21.37%), Segura 1,838 (17.06%), and Jackson 1,841 (17.09%).  PolitickerNJ predicts a recount to see if that three vote margin holds up. Eric Jackson or Manuel Segura will face Tony Mack in a June runoff. There were 10,771 votes for mayor total, 114 under votes, and 0 over votes. Also, at 10:37PM when I write this, there does seem to be one district not reporting.  (10:41) Nevermind, it updated to all 51 districts with no vote changes, so that was just a typo.

Spreadsheets of 2008 Election Results

Here’s something that our readers might find useful.  I noticed that the latest wave of presidential-results-by-congressional-district at Swing State Project have just been published including many results in New Jersey.  Voting results are available in handy Google Doc spreadsheets, which you may find more helpful that the PDFs scattered around official voting sites.  This is the link for New Jersey.

Information available includes Presidential votes by county, by congressional district, split by CD within counties, and best of all (for 15 NJ counties) the votes by township.  So if you want to know how many votes Obama got in Congressional District 4, Gloucester County, Princeton Boro, or Bayonne Ward 1, you can find it there.

Another Swing State diary has Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000, 2004, and 2008.

Another Division of Elections embarassment

It seems these days New Jersey can’t do anything right when it comes to elections. Apparently, the legislature’s refusal to extend the voter-verified voting deadline has sent state officials into such a rush to retrofit voting machines with printers that they can’t even publish the results of their own elections.

The NJ elections website has published a page which supposedly contains links to municipality-by-municipality results for all 2008 state and federal races. When you click through these links, you get directed to the website’s generic error page.

This isn’t the first time the Division of Elections has had problems posting results by municipality for 2008 elections. If you visit the primary results page, you’ll notice that “Official Presidential Primary Election Results by County” doesn’t link to anything. The municipality-by-municipality results they had initially published contianed errors in some party registration totals. Instead of fixing the errors, they simply took the files down and forgot about them.

Even if the Division of Elections does manage to publish results by municipality some time in the near future, they’ll still be well behind a number other states when it comes to delivering useful election results. New Jersey really ought to take a page from states like Virginia, Rhode Island, and North Carolina, and post precinct-by-precinct by precinct results on election night.

Breaking down Obama’s NJ victory

“Swing” is a measurement used by handicappers and political scientists to measure political movement of a constituency from one election to another. In this map and subsequent discussion, the swing for a county equals ((% Obama ’08 – % Mccain ’08) – (% Kerry ’04 – % Bush ’04))/2.

Below the fold, I examine Obama’s performance region by region.

How Democratic is YOUR County?

It’s more than a little backward how much state political power is defined at the county level, when outside of Hudson, most voters have rather weak identification with their county. But that’s the way it is. And power comes in part from how many votes you can deliver.

At the old Middlesex County victory gatherings I used to attend, status was based on the margin your town brought in. The Freeholder (or whatever race the bigwigs were concerned with) total for the Democrats minus that for the Republicans. I suppose it works similarly at the state level with counties, at least sometimes. Better might be to compare what you delivered with the most and least that your town could have delivered, but that was too complicated and subjective.

Another source of power is the ability to have your candidates win a state-wide primary. That would be based more on the raw number of Democrats in your county.

And if you want to see which counties ought to have the most progressive government and political culture, you can look at the percentage of the vote that goes Democratic.

Now is a good chance to see how Democratic the counties are, because in Lautenberg-Zimmer, we’ve just had about the most generic state-wide race imaginable. Neither candidate had a significant local base. Neither candidate had a controversial or shining personality. It was a Democratic year, but Lautenberg’s age probably balances that. So the 2008 NJ-Sen race gives us an unusually good window to voters’ proclivities, independent of their satisfaction or dissatisfaction with their Freeholders or anyone else.

Below the fold are tables with the counties ranked from 1 to 21 by each of the three measures above, using the Senate returns current on the Daily Kos tracker as of this afternoon. I suppose a few more votes may yet trickle in, so these totals may not be final.

EDIT: fixed first table to include Bergen only once and to include Essex