Tag Archive: polls

Poll of New Jersey: Presidential Race is Tied

In the latest Rasmussen poll of New Jersey, the headline is McCain holds statistically insignificant leads over both Obama (46-45) and Clinton (45-42).    Clinton previously had a big lead.

One notable result is that the percentage of people who view McCain favorably is 61, Obama 58, and Clinton 50.  Obama has been improving, Clinton falling, and McCain remaining the same.  No doubt we can look forward to the negative ads New Jerseyans have learned to expect to drag all these down.

The Ramussen Markets data show that bettors believe the Republicans have an 24% chance to win New Jersey’s Electoral Votes, so if you really think McCain will win you have a chance to make a lot of money.  

Me or your lying eyes?

Clinton’s NJ campaign today claimed the momentum in New Jersey (press release):

It was yet another strong week for the Clinton campaign in New Jersey. President Clinton visited South Jersey on Tuesday, the campaign took to the airwaves with the first ad of the cycle, Survey USA and Rasmussen polls both found that Hillary has a 12 point lead here, 2 more State Senators and the former Edwards state coordinator announced their endorsement – and tomorrow, Senator Menendez, joined by a host of New Jersey elected officials and others, headlines the NJ for Hillary GOTV Bus Tour.

As the campaign heads into the GOTV phase of the campaign, there is no doubt the momentum is real here in the Garden State.

And here’s a plot of the available NJ poll data back through mid-December (all data in right hand column under “Primary Poll Tracker”). Each point on the plot represents one poll, with the exception of the latest data point which is the average of three polls released today:NJ Democratic presidential primary polling

If that’s momentum, I’d hate to see what a bad week looks like. So who you gonna believe?

Rasmussen Polls Shows Tightening Race, but Clinton Leading

The latest New Jersey poll from Rasmussen Reports has Hillary Clinton at 49% and Barack Obama at 37%.  This is a big twelve point lead, but down from the previous 18 point lead.  You might not be surprised that there’s a big gender gap:

Clinton leads by 24-percentage points among women while Obama leads by five-points among men.

Both candidates are viewed similarly in terms of favorability and likelihood to win the general election.

If these results hold statewide, then the candidates would split the thirty districts with 4 delegates and Clinton would gain a 10 delegate advantage in the ten 3-delegate districts.  She would get something like a 5 delegate advantage for the 37 statewide delegates.  

A Tightening Race in NJ?

Update: A Rasmussen poll shows that the race is tightening up a bit. Clinton’s 18 point lead on 1/15 has shrunk to 12 points. She now leads 49% – 37%.

The last meaningful poll conducted in New Jersey was the Quinnipiac poll on January 22nd which showed Hillary Clinton with a 17 point lead over Barack Obama, 49%-32%. John Edwards had 10% of the vote at the time. (an FDU poll conducted since then didn’t specify which primary voters were participating in)

But a lot has changed in the past 10 days in the presidential campaign: South Carolina voted, Ted and Caroline Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama, and John Edwards dropped out of the race. It’s hard to know if any of these things will significantly alter the dynamics in New Jersey, but national numbers may give us some indication. This is Gallup’s national tracking poll:

According to Gallup, on January 22nd, Clinton enjoyed a 16 point lead over Obama (46%- 30%), almost the same as her lead in New Jersey at the time. As of yesterday, Clinton’s national lead has shrunk to 4 points (43% – 39%). Polls in other states show a narrowing of Clinton’s lead, too. The latest round of polls show Clinton’s leads tightening to 6 points in Massachusetts, 3 points in California and a tie in Connecticut. It wouldn’t be wise to blindly conclude too much from any one particular poll, but I would be surprised if any future polls don’t show a similar trend here in New Jersey.

Twenty-One Primary Elections on February 5, and that’s just New Jersey

Maybe you noticed that John Edwards finished second in the Iowa district delegate vote count, but got one fewer national delegate than Hillary Clinton. Perhaps you were surprised that Hillary Clinton got more votes in New Hampshire, but the same number of delegates as Barack Obama. Surely you’ve read some Obama claims that he “really” won Nevada in delegates 13-12, even though Clinton got more votes.  It’s enough to make me flashback to the Electoral College map. So, what’s going on here, and how does it relate to New Jersey? This is the answer as I understand it.

In Jersey, we’ve been told there is “a” primary coming up, but there are actually twenty primaries happening on February 5.  Each of these primaries occur in a “Delegate District,” which is two of the familiar “Legislative Districts” combined.  For example, I’m in Delegate District Two, which is LD3 (Sweeney’s) and LD4 (Madden’s) combined.  Each district elects three or four delegates to the national convention. Now the LDs have (roughly) equal population, but the districts that have fewer Democratic voters only get three delegates.  Each of these are truly separate primaries, in the sense that if Hillary Clinton turns out a crushing victory in District 20, it has the same effect in my district as her votes in Los Angeles:  None whatsoever.   There’s a total of 70 delegates at stake in these twenty elections.

Note that at the end of the day, outcomes like a 5% win or a 10% win in votes may not be reflected at the district level.  In a three delegate district, I think there are realistically only two possible outcomes:  Either Clinton-Obama-Edwards tie with one each, or one of the them gets two, one gets one, and the other gets nothing.  A candidate gets nothing if “he” fails to get 15% of the votes (I don’t think that will happen to “she”).   A four delegate district, however, could realistically split 2-2-0 or 3-1-0 or 2-1-1.  As the district results are added up, it’s possible that just as in the early states, a small lead by one candidate is not reflected in the delegate totals.  Obama’s counterintuitive Nevada result was powered by a small victory in an odd delegate district while splitting even-delegate districts by not losing by too many votes.  

New FDU Poll

Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind has released its latest poll and concludes that NJ Voters are skeptical of Lottery and Turnpike leases.  You can read the AP interpretation here.  Key results are:

State on Right Track/Wrong Track:  39/47
Jon Corzine Favorable/Unfavorable: 53/30
Lautenberg Favorable/Unfavorable:  53/25
Menendez Favorable/Unfavorable:  36/31
Lease Turnpike Good/Bad:  17/58
Lease Lottery Good/Bad: 20/54

Also, 36% think fraud, waste and abuse are most responsible for driving up state taxes.  (Actually 48%, since 12% choose ‘all of the above’ from the list of choices.)

News Roundup and Open Thread for Wednesday, February 28, 2007

  • Governor Corzine plans a big pitch to sell the public on monetization.
    So far the public and legislature are opposed.

  • There is a plan to ask voters to dedicate a portion of the state sales tax for open space preservation.  If this seems familiar to you, it’s bacause the same thing was done in 1998, but that money has now run out.  Assemblyman Doug Fisher (LD3) is a sponsor:

    “By many accounts, this is a program that is well-run and has a lot of stewardship,”

    The governor, however, seems to be moving away from supporting this proposal to funding open space preservation with monetization of state assets.

  • The Quinnipiac University poll gives Corzine a 50% approval rating.  The public supports the property tax plan but also thinks not much has changed. 
  • There’s a bill to punish school bus drivers who leave kids on the bus
  • Senator Frank Lautenberg has been holding hearings on Amtrak funding.  He expects to get $19 billion for it, plus another $400 million for safety/security for the New Jersey/New York tunnels.

    This is a short news roundup, so I must have missed something.  Let everyone know in this open thread.

  • Eagleton has it as a dead heat

    Eagleton Poll Press Release

    It’s a multiple poll day, as Eagleton throws their latest efforts out there to see if anyone really cares.  Among likely voters, Menendez has a one point edge, 45-44, while Kean leads among registered voters, 42-40.  Both measures are well within the margin of error.

    What the poll really comes down to is that folks in New Jersey haven’t really paid all the much attention to the race and that a shift from local issues to national issues would be the exact thing needed to lift Menendez ahead of Junior for good.

    Interesting stats to paint the picture:

    • Only 36% of voters know that Menendez is the Senator while 28% believe he is not the Senator.  Meanwhile, 9% believe Kean is the US Senator and 8% believe he was the Governor.
    • 29% of voters think the race is about putting Democrats in control of Congress while 20% think it’s about keeping Republicans in control.  44% think it’s about something else entirely.
    • 21% believe property taxes are the most important issue in deciding their vote.  We need to educate the 21% percent that the Federal government has a minimal impact on property taxes (and even with just a minimal impact, the Republicans are screwing us over).
    • 57% of Kean supporters believe that family background should be an issue in the campaign, compared to 42% of Menendez supporters.
    • The preznit’s approval is at an all-time low of 30% and 51% of voters associate Junior closely with the preznit.

    Lessons learned – educate the people, make the race about national issues, tie Kean to Bush and show that Junior is just an empty suit, a mental midget ready to do the GOP’s bidding in Washington.