Tag Archive: polls

Star-Ledger’s Perfect Little 6-inch Graphic: Christie & Women

Yesterday, Blue Jersey’s own Senator Loretta Weinberg, one of the women legislators he has openly insulted, asked some of the same questions in an Open Letter to Gov. Chris Christie.

Today, in case you didn’t catch it, this is how Star-Ledger’s editorial board illustrates – perfectly – the hostility Gov. Chris Christie has shown to New Jersey women legislators who dare to disagree with him. And, at the same time, an depiction of the gender gap between how men view the way Christie’s doing his job, and the way women do. Star-Ledger’s graphic is titled: Hey, Christie, what is it about women?

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Another Poll Confirms Christie Alienating Public

This time it’s the Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll:

New Jersey residents are divided on Governor Chris Christie’s job performance and his ratings have dropped since the last Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll in February.  He now stands at 47% approve to 49% disapprove among all state residents.  Among registered voters, he has a 46% positive to 49% negative job rating.

           The change in Christie’s rating comes mainly from the number of people who shifted from having no opinion of the governor a few months ago to holding a negative view today.

This is the third poll this month with Christie back under 50% approval and surging disapproval. What’s going on? Pollster Patrick Murray points to the continuing budget problems. I too think that after 18 months the incumbent governor starts to own the problems. But I think still think that his bullying and rightward shift to appeal to other states’ Republican Presidential primary voters is also hurting him.

The sample has 807 New Jersey adults and a margin of error of 3.5%. You might be amused to see they polled on the governor’s “YouTube” town hall performances. I should point out that the legislature, which will actually be on the ballot this year, still polls poorly (33% approve, 47% disapprove) but there’s nothing new in that.  

Hughes Center Poll confirms Christie is dropping

Conservatives have loved to point to Chris Christie as a “popular” governor polling above 50%, but today a William J. Hughes Center Poll (PDF) confirms that Christie would get crushed by Obama for President and is trouble even for re-election:

“When we asked about a hypothetical campaign between President Obama and Gov. Christie, voters favored Obama over Christie by 51% to 33.5%,” said Hughes Center Executive Director Sharon Schulman. “We also asked if they agreed or disagreed that Christie should run for President in 2012, 68.8% of the voters somewhat or strongly disagreed with him running.”

…NJ voters were slightly positive on their overall opinion of Christie in general (48.8% favorable vs. 45.4% unfavorable). When asked if the election for NJ governor was held today would they vote to re-elect Christie, voters were evenly split at 44.6% “yes” and 44.1%

This is a poll of 1,000 likely voters, so Christie would probably do worse amongst a wider sample. Many voters said Christie’s confrontational style has alienated them.

65.6% of voters view President Obama “favorably” or “somewhat favorably.”

Chris Christie’s Poll Numbers Crash

The latest poll from Survey USA tells us we won’t be hearing about how popular New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is for long:

New Jersey Republican Governor Chris Christie, beloved by some and despised by others for his bluntness, has a Minus 18 job approval today as speculation continues about whether Christie should run for President. 38% of NJ adults approve of the job Christie is doing, 56% disapprove.

According to this latest Eyewitness News Poll conducted by SurveyUSA exclusively for WABC-TV in New York City, NJ voters by 5:1 say Christie should not run for President.

* By 2:1, NJ voters say Christie would be a worse president than Barack Obama.

* Obama carried NJ in 2008 by 15 points. Obama’s approval rating in NJ today is Plus 14 (54% approve, 40% disapprove).

* Voters split evenly on whether Christie would be better president than George W. Bush.

The poll is of 700 New Jersey adults including cell phone users. Christie probably would do a bit better excluding non-voters (but journalists shouldn’t forget that their opinions exist.) He can also take solace that he’s at +49 with Tea Party supporters, but I think his attempts to appeal to Republican Presidential primary voters are hurting him with everyone else in New Jersey. He’s at a terrible minus 23 with self-identified moderates.  

Rasmussen finds over 195% of Republicans will definitely vote

Rasmussen has a remarkable new poll out in which they report that Chris Christie would “definitely” get 30% of the Republican primary vote. 30% in a field of 18 candidates — sounds impressive. Sadly for Governor Christie, Republican voters have a lot of “definite” plans: Rasmussen tells us the top eight named candidates are going to get 195% of the vote, and there a few more “definite” votes lurking in the lower tier of candidates. Diebold programmers take note, you may be on overtime next year!  

Your latest New Jersey poll

The Rutgers Eagleton poll has a new release:

After becoming less positive following introduction of the budget, New Jersey voters remain split on their impression of Gov. Chris Christie, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. While 44 percent of registered voters give the governor a favorable rating, 42 percent view him unfavorably and 14 percent have no opinion. In February, 46 percent viewed the governor favorably and 44 percent unfavorably.

Professor Redlawsk believes Christie went down after his budget address and never recovered the lost popularity. Christie himself seems to think he was taken into the hearts of the people, but maybe he was just lying.

President Obama is at 55-32. Senator Menendez is at 32-24. Senator Lautenberg is at 38-28. These numbers are characteristic of New Jersey. More people support the Libya action than oppose it.

There is also a discussion, which you may or may not find interesting, how different descriptions of job performance can be perceived differently. (Is “fair” bad? Is a “C” bad?)

Hopefully Rutgers has saved some money to be able to poll New Jersey if the Republicans shut down the federal government for a week or more.

So Christie can hear

Jeff is the Council candidate in Flemington. – promoted by Rosi

As reported this morning, the Governor won’t support legislation that would allow for self-serve gasoline in New Jersey.  His reason:  the residents don’t support it.

This is huge news, Blue Jerseyers!

It means that the governor can actually listen to the people!

So how many things should we now expect the Christie to support, since the majority of New Jersey residents are for them:

Marriage equality?

Reproductive health rights?

Stopping effort to tie teacher pay to test scores?

Funding for women’s health care?

End cuts to local school districts?

Sports gambling?

A great day Blue Jersey!  Bring me the finest muffins and bagels in all the land!

Two New Jersey Polls

What a happy day for New Jersey political junkies: We got releases of both the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Press Media Poll PDF, plus or minus 3.5 percent)  and the Quinnipiac poll (plus or minus 2.7 percent.) They agree quite well.

It’s a pretty good day for Governor Christie too, with favorable-unfavorable job ratings of of 49-41 (Monmouth), or 52-40 (Quinnipiac.)  amongst New Jersey registered voters. That’s great agreement. You may have seen a Republican “internal poll” being touted recently; as usual, it was about 7 points more favorable to those releasing it than a neutral party. In Quinnipac, 51% say Christie’s first year is mainly a success and only 35% say mainly a failure; In Monmouth, they find 25% think he has “major accomplishments”, 39% “minor accomplishments,” and 34% say “no real accomplishments.” Same thing, different phrasing.  

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If the Future were Today: Polls of 2012, 2013 New Jersey Match Ups

We can have some fun looking at the results of a statewide poll of New Jersey by Public Policy Polling. Along with approval ratings for the major figures, they provide head-to-head numbers for future races. There are 520 “New Jersey voters” for an estimated margin of error of 4.3%.  

2013 Race for Governor: Chris Christie 42, Cory Booker 42.

Those numbers are actually misleadingly good for Christie though. 21% of Democrats are undecided in such a match up while only 7% of Republicans are. That’s probably a reflection of 38% of voters in the state still not having an opinion about Booker.

2012 Race for Senator: Bob Menendez 47, Lou Dobbs 35.

Frankly I’ve been worried about Dobbs so I’m happy to see this.  

2012 Race for Senator: Bob Menendez 45, Kim Guadagno 30.

PPP notes that while Dobbs is unpopular, Guadagno is mainly unknown.

2012 Race for Senator: Bob Menendez 41, Tom Kean Jr. 39.

Uh-oh. Bad numbers for the re-match. On the other hand, PPP observes that 51% of voters don’t know who Kean is. I’ll go further and suggest that if so many don’t know who he is, some must think Kean Jr. is his popular father — even though I wouldn’t have guessed it.  

2012 Race for President: Barack Obama 55, Chris Christie 38.

Obama may be weak at the moment but it seems that even a local Republican would get crushed.  Gingrich, Huckabee, and Romney all do about the same as Christie.  

2012 Race for President: Barack Obama 59, Sarah Palin 29

I had to put Palin’s numbers in.  

To the degree you take such early polls seriously, we can conclude that New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes will go to Obama without a battle, Menendez might be vulnerable, and Christie can be defeated.  

Rutgers Poll: This one has Adler and Runyan tied

I did not intend to spend the day writing about polls but it seems the local universities had a different idea. Now Rutgers-Eagleton has weighed in with a poll of NJ3:

We are out today with our third and final poll of the NJ third congressional district race between Democratic incumbent John Adler and Republican challenger Jon Runyan. Oh, and don’t forget purported “Tea Party” candidate Peter DeStefano. The upshot? It’s tied. All locked up. 44-44. No space between the two candidates. At least among those we believe to be likely voters. And DeStefano – his 4-5 percent could be making the difference.

Professor Redlawsk discussess the cell phone issue (Rutgers polls land lines only), party unity (Democrats more united), donkeys (even Republicans bothered by their use as a tax dodge), the enthusiasm gap (helps Runyan), desire for an outsider (that would be Runyan) and DeStefano (helping Adler at 5%, but also provoking a backlash.)

Obviously the combination of two small Runyan leads and an exact tie is still a narrow Runyan lead, but it looks too close to call. Redlawsk suggests the key to Democratic victory is turnout of registered Democrats. That’s why we see President Obama pushing supporters to volunteer to contact voters. You can even do it online.