Tag Archive: John McCain

Menendez says Graham may have McCain on the brain

Senator Bob Meenendez is questioning the motives behind Senator Lindsay Graham backing out of efforts to push bi-partisan immigration reform before the November Election: Menendez told Politico that Graham may be more concerned with shielding his friend John McCain from the immigration blow back because he is locked in a tough primary fight with immigration as a prominent issue:

“Clearly John McCain is in a huge fight,” Menendez said in an interview. “He has done a 360-degree turn on immigration – he’s getting a challenge from the hard right, I’m sure the last thing any friend of John McCain wants to see is to see is immigration come for debate.”

Graham had been working with Senator Chuck Shumer on crafting the bill and denied the claims of Menendez. He said the Senate is just too polarized now, because you know in the run up to the next Presidential election after this November things will be much better. The issue has come back to the front burner in recent days after the controversial new immigration law recently signed in Arizona. Menendez has said he will push forward with Shumer and Majority Leader Harry Reid drafting legislation for this session. But while they plan to push forward, the President said the immigration debate may have to wait.

RNC has McCain and Rudy robo-calling NJ Voters

The RNC is sending robocalls from Rudy Giuliani and John McCain into the homes of NJ Voters. Here’s the Rudy call:

Hi this is Rudy Giuliani.  I’m calling because I care about what’s going on in New Jersey. The Trenton Democrats broke their promises and raised billions of dollars in taxes.  Business, jobs and families have been driven out of the state. Special interests dominate Trenton and corruption continues to fester at taxpayers expense.  Business as usual can’t be allowed any longer. We need your vote to get New Jersey back on the right track.  On Tuesday, November 3, let’s replace the Trenton tax machine for the real change NJ needs.  Vote Republican

And then here is McCain’s robo-call:

This is John McCain calling with an urgent message. Trenton Democrats broke their promises and raised millions of dollars in taxes. As a result, businesses, jobs and families have been driven away. These corrupt special interests will continue to dominate unless you take action. This is an extremely close election and your vote will make a difference. On Tuesday November 3, vote Republican for the real change NJ needs.

And the RNC isn’t alone, Rosi got a robo-call from Cory Booker the other day. Let us know in the comments if you’ve gotten any robo-calls.

Presidential election results by Legislative District

In the November presidential election, Barack Obama carried 28 of the state’s 40 legislative districts, while John McCain carried just 12. The closest districts were 12 and 21; in 12, McCain won by 435 votes out of over 113,000 cast, while in 21, Obama won by 529 votes out of over 116,000 cast.

Turnout was the highest in the fast-growing, southern Ocean County-based 9th district, where more than 124,000 people voted. The 9th also gave McCain his largest vote total-over 71,000-and his fourth largest percentage win in the state. Turnout was the lowest in the Newark-based 29th, which was also by far Obama’s strongest district in the state. Obama won his largest vote total-over 73,000 votes-in the 7th district, which includes Willingboro, Mount Holly, Pennsauken and most of the river towns in Burlington County.

Only two districts that Obama failed to win by more than 11% elected Democratic legislators in 2007, and the two that did represent districts in South Jersey. All ten Republicans elected to a districts that McCain didn’t either carry or lose by less than half a percentage point hail from the southern half of the state.

Table: Republican legislators in Obama districts

Legislator District Obama

MOV
Sen. Diane Allen 7 37.9%
Sen. Bill Baroni 14 17.5%
Asm. John Amodeo 2 17.5%
Asm. Vince Polistina 2 17.5%
Sen. Phil Haines 8 7.6%
Asm. Scott Rudder 8 7.6%
Asw. Dawn-Marie Addiego 8 7.6%
Sen. Sean Kean 11 5.7%
Asw. Mary Pat Angelini 11 5.7%
Asm. David Rible 11 5.7%
Sen. Tom Kean 21 0.5%
Asm. Jon Bramnick 21 0.5%
Asm. Eric Munoz 21 0.5%

See complete results below the fold. The numbers for 27, 28, 29, 31, 32, and 33 are estimates but should be accurate to within a couple hundred votes.

2008 New Jersey Official Results

It sure takes a long time to get the final New Jersey numbers. When we last left the results election night, Obama led McCain in the unofficial count 57% to 42%, or 2.085 million to 1.545 million.  The 2008 official election results are now available, and the final count is:

Barack Obama    2,215,422   57.27%

John McCain       1,613,207   41.70%

Total                  3,868,237  

The winning margin was 15.57 points. Blue Jersey’s Poll of Polls predicted a 16.9 point win.  Rasmussen’s final New Jersey poll was the most accurate, getting the result correct at 57-42, although it did have the advantage of being the closest to election day.  Ralph Nader, I suppose, can be happy that his 0.55% led the third-party challengers and rounds up to 1%.

Frank Lautenberg  1,951,218   56.03%

Dick Zimmer         1,461,025   41.95%

Total                    3,482,445  

There’s two interesting thing here. First, 10% of the Presidential voters did not bother with the senate race. Second, Obama did better than Lautenberg.  The final margin of 14.08% was comparable to the average poll result of 15%.  

Overall, the pollsters did well.

Breaking down Obama’s NJ victory

“Swing” is a measurement used by handicappers and political scientists to measure political movement of a constituency from one election to another. In this map and subsequent discussion, the swing for a county equals ((% Obama ’08 – % Mccain ’08) – (% Kerry ’04 – % Bush ’04))/2.

Below the fold, I examine Obama’s performance region by region.