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2010

Menendez appears on Meet the Press to talk 2010 and immigration

by: Jason Springer

Sun May 23, 2010 at 05:00:00 PM EDT

Rand Paul was supposed to be a guest on Meet the Press today with Joe Sestak, John Cornyn and Bob Menendez. Paul bailed after the really really bad week he had, but Menendez appeared and here's the show where they talked about the races in Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Connecticut among other topics. Toward the end of the segment, they also got into the immigration debate and the Arizona law:

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Advice from Menendez: Run hard and don't assume

by: Jason Springer

Mon May 17, 2010 at 01:30:00 PM EDT

The AP ran a story about how the anti-establishment mood of the electorate threatens elected officials in both parties this cycle. In his role as head of the DSCC, we got this advice to members of Senate on the ballot from the man in charge of making sure they return for another term:
Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey oversees Democrats' efforts to win Senate races this fall. He said he is warning veteran colleagues to run hard and not assume voters will be impressed by lengthy experience or powerful committee posts.

In this political climate, Menendez said, "they can't assume a senior position is going to ride them into victory."

I wrote the other day about the warning municipal elections should have provided for incumbents on the ballot. The Senator's advice applies for those seeking support from the voters at all levels of government. It's going to be a tough year.
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Non-Partisan Election Results

by: Hopeful

Tue May 11, 2010 at 10:15:25 PM EDT

As if it's not enough to have major elections every November, we also have the non-partisan municipal elections tonight.  

NJ.com has Essex County results. At this time (10:14pm) votes are still being counted in Newark but Booker has a large lead that looks safe to me. Booker tweets that "8 of our 9 council people look to be also headed 2 victory." I see that with 30 of 40 districts reporting in the South Ward Ras Baraka has 3370 and incumbent Oscar S. James II* has 2291 votes. In the East Ward race challenger Peter Pantoliano is trailing incumbent Augusto Amador, 1479-2682. (12:08. I don't know why there are only 160 of 163 districts but I'm going to bed and I bet the election website people did too. Booker wins with 21242 to Minor's 12670. The other two add up to 2018.  John Sharpe James fell short as the incumbent at-large council members were re-elected. Amador won the East, Baraka the South, Ronald C. Rice the West, Ramos the North, and Bell the Central Ward.) (Final update: Oops, Bell didn't get 50% so there's a runoff.)

PolitickerNJ also has a useful summary. Long Branch Mayor Schneider won despite Solomon Dwek's late intervention. State Senator Brian Stack was re-elected mayor of Union City. A victory for dual-office holders everywhere, I suppose.

Any results you are interested in?

In a big upset, Patterson Mayor Torres lost to challenger Jeffery Jones. Northjersey.com notes that the 598 vote victory was despite the mayor's nearly one million dollar warchest.

In Bridgeton, challenger Albert Kelly beat the incumbent mayor. He'll be the first African-American mayor of Bridgeton.

Your Trenton Results are here. Mack has 2,302 (21.37%), Segura 1,838 (17.06%), and Jackson 1,841 (17.09%).  PolitickerNJ predicts a recount to see if that three vote margin holds up. Eric Jackson or Manuel Segura will face Tony Mack in a June runoff. There were 10,771 votes for mayor total, 114 under votes, and 0 over votes. Also, at 10:37PM when I write this, there does seem to be one district not reporting.  (10:41) Nevermind, it updated to all 51 districts with no vote changes, so that was just a typo.

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Why I'm running for Council in Berkeley Heights

by: Stephen Yellin

Mon May 03, 2010 at 03:44:00 PM EDT

By Stephen Yellin

It's been a pleasure to be a part of the Blue Jersey community since its inception. I remember the conversations that took place when this site was in development, and how excited its founders - people like Juan Melli, Jeff Gardner and Rosi Efthim - were to be leading the vanguard for progressive change online in New Jersey. Those hopes have come to fruition, as you can see by the fact that one of our front-page writers is Loretta Weinberg, and leaders like Frank Pallone post their diaries here. I hope to remain part of this community for many years to come!

Many of you know me for my work as an Internet blogger, or as a Democratic activist in New Jersey. Another facet of my life is less well-known in these parts- my work as an outspoken resident in Berkeley Heights, the town I've lived in all my life. My town has been very good to me, giving me an excellent education in a friendly and (largely) affluent community. Now that I'm graduating from college, I feel that it's time for me to give back to Berkeley Heights. That's the main reason - although far from the only one - that I'm running for Township Council.

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Obama starts the 2010 elections

by: Hopeful

Mon Apr 26, 2010 at 02:26:18 PM EDT

The President, in campaign mode, released this video for his supporters today:

This is a looking to be a difficult election year for us here in New Jersey. There are no open seats and independent groups think there is little chance of defeating any of the incumbent Republicans, though I certainly liked Ed Potosnak in his Blue Jersey interview. A number of great Democratic Representatives are facing challenges by rich right-wing extremists, and Democrats will need to turn out to protect them. Then of course there is a high profile, very competitive race in the Third District. Polls show the main problem nationwide is that many Obama voters still support him and Democrats but don't intend to vote.  

How do you think Democrats can energize and turn out these voters here in New Jersey?

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News Roundup & Open Thread for Tuesday, April 6, 2010

by: vincent solomeno

Tue Apr 06, 2010 at 08:52:11 AM EDT

Menendez to appeal recall decision

A spokesperson for U.S. Senator Bob Menendez announced yesterday that the Hudson Democrat will appeal to the New Jersey Supreme Court to halt a Tea Party fueled recall effort.  A three-judge appeals panel ruled last month that the recall was constitutional.

Did he really say that?!

James Simpson, Governor Christie's new Commissioner of Transportation, told the Philadelphia Inquirer that "New Jersey is defined by its Turnpike."  A Brooklyn native who still lives in Delaware, Simpson told a reporter he refuses to let his children use the motorway's public bathrooms.  He explained, "I wait till we get to another state."

Whelan calls out N.F.L. hypocrisy

As some state lawmakers push for a November referendum on whether sports betting should be legalized in Atlantic City's 11 casinos, an N.F.L. spokesperson reiterated the league's opposition to such a move.  Testifying before the Wagering, Tourism and Historic Preservation Committee, State Senator Jim Whelan called the N.F.L. hypocrital for allowing television networks and sportscasters to openly discuss point spreads.

Don't hold your breath

The Star-Ledger thinks pending layoffs, program cuts, and property tax increases will focus attention on the April 20 vote that includes elections for board of education and non-binding referenda on school budgets.  Turnout is traditionally abysmally low.

AAA: Teen driving fatalities drop

A study commissioned by the AAA Foundation finds that the number of fatal accidents involving New Jersey teen drivers have dropped precipitously since the state implemented driving restrictions in 2002.

Dismembered bodies discovered in Linden

Linden police officers made a chilling discovery Monday: the dismembered bodies of two individuals were found in two trash bags in a residential neighborhood.  Authorities have yet to release the identities of the victims but they have stepped up patrols and are encouraging residents to exercise caution.

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News Roundup & Open Thread for Monday, April 5, 2010

by: vincent solomeno

Mon Apr 05, 2010 at 09:50:10 AM EDT

Pallone leads the fight against offshore drilling

Congressman Frank Pallone and New Jersey environmentalists are laying plans for a grassroots campaign to convince President Obama to hold to his campaign promise and reverse his recent decision to allow drilling off the Atlantic coast.

Booker kicks off re-election campaign

Newark Mayor Cory Booker kicked off his re-election campaign Saturday, making the classic case that it's never good to switch horses midstream.  He's not only asking voters to support him in the non-partisan May ballot, but would like all current councilmembers returned to office as well.  

Sharpe James readies for his return

Just as the current mayor readies for re-election, another is readying for his return.  Former Mayor Sharpe James, at one time one of the state's most powerful Democrats, is set to be released from federal prison Tuesday.  Despite his corruption conviction, he swears he's innocent.  And he's not mincing words when it comes to criticism of his successor.

Speaker Oliver's balancing act

Matt Friedman has an excellent piece on a day in the life of Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver.   The "wildcard" in the governing partnership that also includes Christie and Senate President Sweeney, the Speaker anticipates the coming budget showdown, and insists - you're not going to believe it! - that she's ready to fight for Democratic spending priorities.

Conservatives pressure Christie to remake top court

Conservatives are pressuring Governor Christie to break with decades of precedent and deny Justice John E. Wallace reappointment to the state's top court.  This would be the first time a justice was denied reappointment since the state constitution was adopted in 1947.  The Blue Jersey community has to be thinking, "We told you so?"

Mulshine: Christie grilled by high school students

The Governor's BFF at the Star-Ledger writes about an exchange between Christie and a Montclair high school student over the state's "thorough and efficient" education funding obligation.

State gives up $15b annually in tax credits

A new state report says the state forgoes at least $15 billion in revenue annually as a result of "various credits, deductions, exemptions and other special provisions in the state's tax code."

The Battle for Fort Monmouth

Local officials want more say in the future of Fort Monmouth.  Under a bill introduced by State Senators Ray Lesniak and Jen Beck, the future of the Army post (set to be shuttered in 2011 as a consequence of BRAC) will be decided by a nine-member state commission.  Following several amendments, the locals have signed on to the bill, but still caution the need for local input.  

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News Roundup & Open Thread for Friday, April 2, 2010

by: vincent solomeno

Fri Apr 02, 2010 at 09:55:20 AM EDT

State investigates possible pension violations

The Division of Pension and Benefits has launched an investigation into whether public union officials on leave from government jobs are in violation of federal tax regulations for continuing to accrue pension time.  Notably, Barbara Keshishian, NJEA president, is one of the individuals effected.

Civil liberties group says Menendez recall constitutional

The American Civil Rights Union filed a brief earlier this year defending efforts to recall U.S. Senator Bob Menendez as constitutional.  The ACRU is viewed by many as the conservative counterpart to the ACLU.

Opponent criticizes Frelinghuysen for health care vote

Democrat Doug Herbert, running against Congressman Rodney Frelinghuysen in the Eleventh Congressional District, said the veteran lawmaker was wrong to vote no in last week's vote on health care reform.

New charter school applications up

Perhaps in response to Governor Christie's public school cuts, New Jersey's Department of Education received 36 applications to establish new charter schools for fall 2011.

The perils of Facebook

Despite nationwide efforts to warn students about leaving digital trails on social networking sites, some New Jersey teachers are in hot water for making caustic and derogatory online comments about Governor Christie's proposed education cuts.  Many of the complaints, posted to Facebook, were done on school time.

Newark protest over proposed NJ Transit hikes

Community activists protested at Penn Station yesterday in opposition to proposed NJ Transit fare hikes, the largest in 30 years.

Police sweep nets 27 in Trenton

Police arrested 27 individuals on outstanding warrants at the same Trenton housing complex where a 7-year old was sexually assaulted earlier this week.  Mayor Douglas Palmer said the dragnet was already in the works and he hopes that the arrests will result in leads in the case.

Thieves discover a new AC jackpot

Atlantic City police report that a Frito-Lay snack truck was stolen yesterday.  The vehicle was recovered, but not before being fleeced of its contents.  The investigation is ongoing.

RNC directs donors to sex line

The hits just keep on coming for the Republican National Committee.  Fresh off the controversy over the party's Los Angeles sex club event, news broke yesterday that a fundraising invitation mistakenly listed a phone sex line as the RSVP number.

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2010 House Rankings

by: Hopeful

Thu Apr 01, 2010 at 09:33:18 PM EDT

Besides county and local elections, our main elections this year in New Jersey are just the thirteen Congressional races. Swing State Project has released their new rankings, and the Jersey news is:

John Adler's NJ3 district is ranked "lean Democratic."

Rush Holt's NJ12 district is ranked "likely Democratic."

Our old friends NJ5 (Garrett) and NJ7 (Lance) have dropped off the rankings, meaning they do not foresee the chance of an upset. Note that far more Democratic seats are in play, reflecting the poor national environment and the many close victories in the last two cycles.

These involve judgments, but they also developed a formula called the "House Vulnerability Index." In this index, John Adler is the 37th most vulnerable Democrat.

The latest edition of the Cook Political Report House Race Chart has Adler as "lean Democratic" and no other New Jersey races ranked. His definition is "Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage."

So what do you think? Do they overestimate Lance? I have the impression many Blue Jersey think Adler's race is a toss-up or even "lean Republican."  

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News Roundup & Open Thread for Wednesday, April 1, 2010

by: vincent solomeno

Thu Apr 01, 2010 at 08:42:48 AM EDT

New Jersey Democrats question Obama's drill plan

Our Senators and several Congressmen oppose the offshore oil drilling plan announced yesterday by President Obama.  All things being equal, so does Governor Christie

Christie tries new tactic: politeness

As part of Governor Christie's push for wage freezes, he's reaching out to the NJEA.  Rather than anger, he's giving civility a go.  Union leaders are skeptical.

DOE plays let's make a deal

The Department of Education has informed school districts that teachers who agree to new contracts likely to include wage freezes will not be subject to the Governor's 1.5% benefits contribution plan.  They have until May 22.

Ocean County faces record unemployment

The official jobless numbers are out for Ocean County.  Unemployment is up to 12%, a 30-year high.  Predictably, a GOP Freeholder blames the out of work.

Good news: Newark was homicide free in the month of March

The state's largest city recorded its first calendar month without a homicide since 1966.  It's been 32 days since police responded to a murder.  

Mulshine: AG sides against Christians

Columnist Paul Mulshine continues his assault on Chris Christie's conservative credentials, this time singling out New Jersey Attorney General Paula Dow for filing a friend-of-the-court brief in favor of California's efforts to bar a Christian group of lawyers from organizing on a public law school campus.

Police arrest teen who sold sister for sex

A 15-year old Trenton girl was arrested yesterday on charges that she prostituted herself and her 7-year old sister.  One wishes this was an April Fools joke, but sadly, it's not.

Did somebody say bitch slap?

A South Brunswick McDonalds customer slapped a drive-thru attendant across the face because he was tired of waiting for his Filet-O-Fish.

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News Roundup & Open Thread for Wednesday, March 31, 2010

by: vincent solomeno

Wed Mar 31, 2010 at 09:38:10 AM EDT

The honeymoon's over

A Farleigh Dickinson University/Public Mind poll released yesterday shows Governor Christie's job approval ratings down nine points to 43%.

"The Little Engine That Could"

Despite failing to gain organization support in three counties, Highlands Mayor Anna Little is determined to primary billionaire socialite Diane Gooch for the chance to take on Congressman Frank Pallone.

Halfacre withdraws from race to challenge Holt

After months of campaigning, it's all over for Fair Haven Mayor Mike Halfacre's bid for the Republican nomination in New Jersey's Twelfth Congressional District.  Halfacre took the decision after the Monmouth GOP establishment jettisoned him in favor of Wall Street millionaire Scott Siprelle.

FDU/Public Mind: No tax break for Revel Casino

Yesterday's FDU/Public Mind poll reveals that nearly 60% of respondents oppose giving Atlantic City's new Revel Casino upwards of $350 million in tax breaks.  

Redd considers action on social, quality of life issues

Camden Mayor Dana Redd's transition team is recommending she convene a homeless summit, initiate a wellness campaign, and conduct a citywide cleanup.

Senator Singer take note

A new law is set to significantly increasing the amount of fines levied against drivers who fail to yield to pedestrians.

New Jersey's urban areas lag behind in census

U.S. Census officials expressed concern about the low response rate for surveys mailed to urban residents.

Toll collectors to attend charm school

Beginning in May, Garden State Parkway and New Jersey Turnpike toll collectors will attend a customer service refresher course.  The decision was taken in response to numerous complaints from 2008 to 2009, among them cursing at and throwing pennies back at drivers.  Welcome to Jersey.

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FDU/Public Mind: Christie's approvals down 9%

by: vincent solomeno

Tue Mar 30, 2010 at 11:23:04 AM EDT

Today's latest FDU/Public Mind poll reveals that Governor Chris Christie's job approval rating has slipped nine points in the last month to 43% approve to 32% disapprove.  

"It's a bad time to be governor of any state," said Peter Woolley, the poll's director. "You're damned if you cut the budget and damned if you raise taxes."

Sure it's a bad time to be governor.   As the economy continues to contract and state revenue slumps, decades of poor budgeting decisions are coming home to roost.  All we need do is ask former Governor Jon Corzine, who addressed the challenge head on by introducing back to back budgets that reduced state spending but still found himself on the receiving end of voter anger last November.  

Whether Christie intends to follow through on his promise to "turn Trenton upside down" remains to be seen, but this morning's results make clear that many New Jerseyans do not ascribe to his trickledown theory of economics.  48% of respondents oppose Christie's plan to break his campaign promise and end property tax rebates while an even larger 62% are in favor of increasing taxes on the very wealthy.  

This morning's news provides Democrats with an opening to highlight our own reform agenda that focuses on ending some of the gross excesses of government (e.g., bipartisan pension reform) while also opposing Republican efforts to enact fiscal policy favoring the super rich.

Democratic lawmakers are still adjusting to the reality of a Republican Governor.  Yet New Jersey is still blue and the majority of state residents agree that key to our recovery will be support for the middle class.  It may be a bad time to be governor, but for today at least, it's not such a bad time to be a progressive.  

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My fight for the nomination

by: vincent solomeno

Wed Mar 24, 2010 at 02:42:08 PM EDT

The Monmouth County Democratic Mini-Convention is three days away.  As I complete the first phase of my campaign for Freeholder, I am optimistic about my chance of winning the nomination and taking the fight to Republicans in the general election.

I believe key to building a sustainable majority in Monmouth is developing grassroots interest and involvement in our party's efforts to reform county government.  I've traveled all over.  My supporters and I have spent untold hours prepping mailings, writing speeches, and reviewing policy.  

In a campaign, it's easy to lose track of what's important, but here's a by the numbers breakdown of what we've accomplished:

-  Met with 15 elected officials from municipalities across Monmouth County and listened as they explained their concerns about Governor Christie's proposed aid cuts and the resulting need to reign in property taxes.
-  Met with 14 municipal chairs and spoke with countless others to discuss ways our party can better coordinate our message, canvassing, and fundraising.
-  Mailed 5 letters to 139 elected officials and municipal chairs explaining why I'd like to be a Monmouth County Freeholder.
-  Logged 1,593 miles, changed my oil 1 time, and replaced 2 tires and 1 transmission.
-  Wrote 1 letter to the editor, published by The Asbury Park Press, opposing public pensions for lobbyists.
-  Hosted 3 campaign events, including a pancake breakfast that turned out over 75 supporters - many of them new faces in the Democratic Party.
-  Created 1 campaign web site.
-  With the help of friends, created a Facebook page that today has 364 fans.
-  Posted 47 tweets to Twitter.
-  Recorded 2 video messages to likely voters.
-  Read 74 pages of a bloated budget that's ripe for cuts.
-  Attended 4 Freeholder Board meetings and 1 budget hearing.
-  Took on 3 Republican freeholders.

The vote on Saturday will determine whether I go forward and run alongside Judge John D'Amico in the coming campaign.  Yet even if I don't come out on top, I remain committed to building a grassroots effort that elects Democrats across Monmouth County.  We are the party that reformed county government, and this time, we will end once and for all the GOP patronage machine's stranglehold on power.

I'm proud of what my supporters and I have achieved in this campaign and I look forward to translating our efforts into success come November.  I'm grateful for Blue Jersey and our community's ongoing efforts to engage in the political process.  I'll keep you posted on Saturday's results, and Lord willing and the creek don't rise, you'll soon find that we've not yet begun to fight.

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Poll: The 2010 Congressional Elections in New Jersey

by: Hopeful

Fri Mar 05, 2010 at 10:50:05 AM EST

Yesterday, I told you the FDU New Jersey poll found Democrats ahead of Republicans 47-39 with leaners in the generic Congressional ballot. It turns out Rutgers-Eagleton also polled New Jersey on the 2010 Congressional elections. The full PDF release was put out today , but the poll was conducted February 19-22, 2010.

Eagleton polled 886 registered voters, but the main differences is they did not push leaners, and they also gathered the results by who controlled each district by asking if they'd vote for the current Congressman or "challenger running against him." Note that this gave two (or three) sub-samples. So the results are:

In the statewide generic ballot by party, Democrats are at 33% and Republicans at 31%.  

In the five Republican districts, Republicans are at 40% and Democrats at 25%.

In the eight Democratic districts, Democrats are at 41% and Republicans at 22%.

As the pollster notes, "Nearly 20 percent do not know how they will vote, and 10 percent say they do not plan to vote at all." Of course, a lot more than 10% of registered voters will skip the election.

You might think 47-39 doesn't seem much like 33-31, but going back to the FDU poll, without leaners Democrats led 39-34. I don't think it is really too different from Eagleton. I personally suspect the "with leaners" sample gives a better view, because I don't believe so many voters are really persuadable.

Anyway, I think Professor Redlawsk has a pretty good quote summing it up:

"The overall picture statewide seems to suggest that Republicans are at parity with Democrats in 2010, but this is misleading," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers University. "While the statewide vote may be close, it is less likely to be so in most congressional districts. We did not poll at the district level, and in the 3rd district Democrat John Adler is likely to face a very difficult challenge. Still, at the aggregate level incumbents of both parties start the year with an advantage over potential general election challengers."

It would be really interesting to get a poll of Adler's NJ3 district, but in truth it's too early to be definitive.

Quick Update: President Obama has 57-37 approve-disapprove on his job, and 56-31 for "general impression." Democrats in Congress are at 35-42 and Republicans at an even worse 25-48.  52% says Obama's change is happening "too slowly."

The sample has 55% claiming they voted for Obama and 31% claiming McCain which might argue some Republicans are missing. On the other hand, maybe they are in the 6% who claim they voted for someone else (Palin?), and furthermore, the sample also claims they voted 42-31 for Christie over Corzine which is a better margin for Republicans than reality. So it's probably just difficult to get people to say they voted for the unpopular loser.  

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No Time for Complacency

by: Congressman Frank Pallone

Thu Mar 04, 2010 at 03:29:43 PM EST

Promoted by Rosi

Cross Posted on Daily Kos

It sometimes feels like a political eternity has gone by since President Obama was sworn-in with a Democratic Congress last January.  After sweeping into office with the most electoral votes since L.B.J in 1964, our country was poised to turn the page on the failed policies of the past. A little over a year later, we have made a lot of progress and realized important achievements on issues long neglected by the Republicans.

In fact, the 111th Congress is on pace to pass more legislation than any Congress since the Great Society.  We provided the biggest middle-class tax cut in history. We saved and created millions of jobs with the American Investment and Recovery Act. We signed the Worker, Homeownership & Business Assistance Act into law, and we ensured fair pay for women in the workplace with the Lilly Ledbetter Act. We passed a green jobs bill that will cut carbon emissions. We also protected consumers with the Credit Cardholders Bill of Rights. And just last week we voted to repeal the anti-trust exemption for insurance companies.

But there is much more to do. This Congress and this President are on path to do more.  True to their pattern of siding with special interests, the Republican obstructionists are fighting hard to turn back the clock to the policies that caused so much harm to begin with. We need to fight back.

The losses over the last year - Senator Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts, as well as the gubernatorial races in Virginia and right here in New Jersey-show that there are political obstacles.  We can clearly see that those who stand opposed to reforming health care, protecting the environment and creating good jobs for American workers are well-funded and highly motivated. We can learn from those political setbacks and use them to motivate more people to join us in the fight for more progress.

Two years ago, special interest groups poured $1 billion into American elections - mostly trying to discredit Barack Obama and Democratic candidates.  This year  their influence could even be more pernicious. I'm sure you're aware the Supreme Court recently issued a ruling removing all limits on corporate money.  This will open the floodgates and give corporations unchecked influence over our political process. Big business - even those owned by foreign entities - can now crack open their treasure chests to buy as much television time and as many direct mail pieces as they want to help out their handpicked candidates.  Washington Republicans and right-wing challengers will most assuredly reap the benefits - since they've been staunch advocate for tax giveaways to the wealthy and the companies they represent.  America is already struggling with the worst recession since the Great Depression, caused in large part by the reckless behavior of big business. The last thing our nation needs is for these same companies to be able to buy elections and undermine our political process.

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FDU Poll: Obama, Congress, Menendez, and Health Care Reform

by: Hopeful

Thu Mar 04, 2010 at 12:07:03 PM EST

Yesterday, Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind Poll put out a release on New Jersey's views on pension reform, and today they've got New Jersey's views on federal issues from the same sample of 801 registered voters (3.5% margin of error.)

First up, President Barack Obama is at a 53% job approval rating (an improvement on the sub-50 showing last time). Disapproval is at 38%, so the the net +15 matches the margin he beat McCain by in 2008. His numbers with independents are 53-33.

On the other hand, the right track/wrong track numbers for the country are at 38-52, hardly surprising with 10% unemployment, massive deficits, and victory-less wars.  

Democrats lead the generic ballot for U.S. Congress 47-39 with leaners. That doesn't exactly suggest many Democratic incumbents will be swept away, though I don't doubt NJ3 is a battlefield.

If the election were held today, Senator Bob Menendez would get 38%, a (hypothetical candidate) Tom Kean Jr  would get 39%, Someone else gets 6%. Not the numbers we'd like to see, but not unfamiliar either. The pollster notes that Menendez did worse with the subgroup that was asked about him closer to the questions about health care reforms.

Senator Menendez is at 29-25, favorable-unfavorable, and Senator Frank Lautenberg is at 42-29. The negative ads of 2006 have been forgotten as Kean Jr is at 28-11. Kean was at 33-32 at the end of the last campaign, so you can see that campaigns matter.

As for health care reform, the numbers are lousy but not disastrous, as you know if you follow it in national polls. 37% think they will be better off and 42% think they will be worse off if health care reform passes. On the other hand, for the "country as a whole," "better" leaads "worse" 45-40. No doubt the numbers are dragged down by strong Republican opposition, but the two sets for independents are 31-35 and 41-33. The numbers are very striking by race, because only 28% of "Whites" think they'll be better off. Overall, 35% say they'd advise their memver of Congress to vote for a health care reform bill, 40% against, and 25% don't know. That 25% is more Democrats and Independents, so they need to be won over, perhaps by the reality of the bill helping them. (Cough, cough, too bad some genius designed most of the benefits to start years from now.)

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Are the Democrats Punting?

by: rmfretz

Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 12:40:17 PM EST

Good question. - - Promoted from the diaries by Rosi

Cross-posted from Blog the Fifth:

A comment over on Blue Jersey about the state of our Congressional District really raised an eyebrow and got me thinking. The comment was this:

I'll give you another example - I live in NJ-5, Scott Garrett is my congressman. It is looking more and more like the county parties aren't going to put ANYONE up - at a time where republican turnout will be higher and more motivated than the past 5+ years.

This is a sad statement on our politics in their current state. Gerrymandering has gotten to a point where folks like Garrett can serve until they are redistricted out or retire. His only threat real and perceived is in the primary, when the smallest fraction of the electorate makes all the decisions. Democrats won't run anyone because they don't want to spend the money. Politics is a business.

This reality undermines the entire intent of a Representative being accountable to their constituents. Forget the fact that the Democrats can't get someone who believes enough in their values to step up. With the Democrats punting, there's no one to bring up relevant questions for voters to ponder at the ballot box. Why vote against small business tax cuts repeatedly? Why vote against balancing the budget repeatedly? Why vote against extending unemployment benefits repeatedly? Why vote to hasten Medicare's insolvency?

Granted, Garrett is by all accounts safe in this seat. In fact it hasn't really been close on election day in a very long time. That said, Democrats failure to supply voters with any kind of alternative abdicates their fundamental responsibility in our already flawed two party system.  

Discuss :: (7 Comments)

Primaries all over the state for the GOP

by: Jason Springer

Tue Feb 16, 2010 at 10:45:00 AM EST

Congressman Leonard Lance doesn't just have to look at the Democrats when he plans his re-election campaign anymore as David Larsen announced he will make a run from the right. It seems like he' going to play the career politician card and off the bat pointed to Lance's vote on Cap and Trade as an issue he will raise. But in what can only be seen in an attempt to cut the legs out of his campaign, the conservative Senator Mike Doherty turned around to Tom Kean Jr. and other GOP elected officialsendorsing Lance:
I do not think Leonard Lance can be beaten in a Republican Primary. Even if David Larsen won, he would be cut out in redistricting in 2012."
Doherty's statement is sure to anger some of the same people that put him in office, but his decision seems to be more about is own political standing and thinking Lance is the safe bet so it's better to keep his powder dry in this one. Larsen will need to raise some seed money to show people he's serious and not just looking to loan his campaign money for the effort. I'm told that Lance won't be the only Republican to get a challenge from the tea party crowd as someone may run against Frank Lobiondo.

Then in the seats held by Democrats, there are a few primary races to run against the Incumbent. There are numerous candidate running in the 3rd district and Justin Murphy could also get support from the tea partiers as he runs again this year. There is also the primary to run against Rush Holt as Mike Halfacre and Scott Sipprelle will face off in a right v. further right battle and there may be more candidates to jump in the race. Assemblywoman Mary Pat Angelini and others have expressed interest in challenging to run against Frank Pallone as well. The tea partiers are even saying they may put someone up against Scott Garrett from the right, if that's possible in comments to stories that are being written. The amount of candidate running in GOP primaries can be seen as an indication of the enthusiasm and also anger out there with the public right now, who only want to see 8% of incumbent re-elected right now.

By contrast, the Democrats in New Jersey don't seem to like primaries as much. The only primary challenge I've seen so far is one against John Adler, but his warchest will make that an uphill climb. I know inside political circles they tend to shy away from primaries, because it makes you spend resources you want to conserve for the general election battle and take stands you often don't want to defend. But sometimes primaries can better prepare candidates for the trial by fire that is a general election campaign. Even if the GOP candidates don't win their primary challenges, the incumbents will already be in campaign mode given the voter angst right now. The competitive primaries to challenge Democratic incumbents will season them for the rigors of a race. With the climate  and public opinion where it is, it's important that candidates don't wait to start their campaigns and these primaries insure that the GOP won't.

Discuss :: (9 Comments)

Menendez, the White House and the hurdles on the Road ahead

by: Jason Springer

Sat Jan 30, 2010 at 02:30:00 PM EST

The Washington Post had an extensive story yesterday about Senator Menendez and his role leading the DSCC. The story went into looking at the Massachusetts debacle and found an anonymous White House official ready to air some dirty laundry:
One senior administration official, who was granted anonymity to speak frankly about the White House's grievances, acknowledged that there was plenty of blame to go around, especially in the failure to notice how intensely Republican voters were motivated. But the official also argued that Menendez bore a larger burden because it was his job to protect the seat.

"I don't understand how they could have missed how fundamentally unsound the candidate was," said the administration official. "They shouldn't have been surprised by it."

The anonymous source continued saying that his predecessor would never have allowed it to happen:
"Chuck Schumer would have been a rabid dog if he had one race in America and he wouldn't have rested, even if he had a 40-point lead," said the official, who argued the committee needed an A-team on the ground sooner. "They chose not to do that because it was a comfortable lead and they wanted to save their resources for what they thought were going to be really tough races."
But of course once the dirt was shoveled on Menendez, the official on the record comment completely contradicted the anonymous comments:
"That's not a view I share," said David Axelrod, White House senior adviser, adding that there was plenty of blame to go around. "I don't think any one institution or person bears a preponderance of responsibility for that. They have a very good staff over there, they do a very good job. This is not a case where you can say this was their fault."
While I agree with Axelrod that everyone shares blame, he's pretty much trying to close the gate after the horses have gotten out at this point. For his part, Menendez said the anonymous comments weren't helpful:
"Finger-pointing here is not only irresponsible, it risks misreading the political environment right now."
The bottom line is the DSCC is charged with paying attention to make sure that just this situation doesn't occur. Coakley shouldn't have been able to go dark for weeks after the primary and when they went off the reservation, the campaign should have been reigned back in. They can say Coakley wasn't the best candidate or who they would have wanted, but you have the candidate you have at that point. They tried to get more involved but at that point it was to late. Massachusetts needs to serve as a wake up call and an opportunity to be better prepared for the difficult road ahead. It's going to be a tough climate out there, but turning the attacks inward isn't going to make that job any easier. They all should have seen this coming and they all should work together to make sure it doesn't happen again.
Discuss :: (3 Comments)

Van Drew won't challenge LoBiondo "this cycle"

by: Jason Springer

Sat Jan 23, 2010 at 10:13:15 AM EST

It looks like the Democrats are going to need to keep searching for a candidate to challenge Frank LoBiondo this year:
If a Democrat beats Congressman Frank LoBiondo in this November's election, it won't be State Senator Jeff Van Drew doing it. Van Drew has confirmed to Coastal Broadcasting that he will not be running against LoBiondo in this November's election. The State Senator will be up for reelection 2011, along with Assemblyman Nelson Albano and Matt Milam. Cape May Councilman David Kurkowski ran against LoBiondo in 2008, in the Republican's most recent victory.
After he didn't pull the trigger in 2008 with all the wind at the back of Democrats, I wasn't expecting him to jump in this year given the current climate. He didn't close the door on a future run however:
"I'm not going to be running in this cycle," said Van Drew, D-Cape May, Cumberland, Atlantic.
While Van Drew will not run, Egg Harbor Township resident George Sakura says he plans to run. He hasn't spoken to the Atlantic County Chair about his run yet and says he plans on running not against LoBiondo, but against the idea of lobbyists running the country. We will have to see if anyone else steps forward to challenge for the Democrats and if he gets anyone running against him from the right in the primary as well.
Discuss :: (2 Comments)
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