Union County GOP: Minorities Too Stupid To Vote For Us

by: Stephen Yellin

Sun Dec 12, 2010 at 08:25:26 PM EST

Hi all,

As you may know, I was a candidate for Township Council in Berkeley Heights this year. As a Democrat running in a Republican-leaning town in a Republican "wave" year, it's not surprising that I lost. Union County, however, saw a surprisingly strong victory for the Democratic Party's County-wide ticket, with Sheriff Ralph Froehlich and Clerk Joanne Rajoppi each garnering 60% of the vote; our Freeholder candidates weren't far behind.  

I can imagine that the Union County Republican Party's Election Night gathering wasn't that joyful - neither was mine. When I conceded, however, I certainly did not attack the voters of Berkeley Heights by saying (for example): "You hit them [the Republicans] with a cattle prod, and they'll go under; there's no brain power involved." It would be incredibly offensive, and would do a tremendous disservice to my supporters, some of whom were registered Republicans.  

Final thoughts on Berkeley Heights 2010

by: Stephen Yellin

Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 08:24:54 AM EDT

Hi all,

So I lost. As many good Democrats did nationally (and a few bad ones, I might add), and in different parts of New Jersey. In the end, I finished with 1, 208 votes, or about 27% of the vote in a 3-way race. I finished 4th out of 6, beating the two Independents. My running mate, Linda Weber did much better, drawing 1,762 votes and missing a Council seat by less than 400 votes. In a different year (2006 or 2008), she would have won.  

Linda Greenstein wins big, heads to Senate

by: Jay Lassiter

Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 10:38:36 PM EDT

Garden State Equality's FaceBook page:

BIG WIN FOR US IN NEW JERSEY POLITICS: In the most hotly contested state legislative election of 2010, pro-marriage equality Democrat Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein WINS her election for state Senate! Linda has been a target over the years of anti-marriage equality organizations like the National Organization for Marriage and the New Jersey Family Policy Council. Congratulations, Linda! We are thrilled for you.

Election Results

by: Hopeful

Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 09:19:54 PM EDT

At this moment (9:14PM), the Republicans lead in all three battleground districts. However, we only have Ocean County (NJ3) and Monmouth County (NJ6/NJ12) results plus a bit from Hunterdon (NJ12).  These are Republican strongholds and the results are consistent with the Monmouth University pre-election polls: Runyan eads 59-37 in the Ocean County votes and led 54-37 in the poll. Runyan looks likely to win, but it's too soon to call.  DeStefano only got 2% in Ocean County so he's not draining Runyan's support.  I'm nervous about Holt but he was expected to do badly in Monmouth.  

Update: Holt (NJ12) and Pallone (NJ6) both win.  Right now they are 51%-48% and 55%-44% respectively but not all districts are in.

Voting Booth Portraits

by: Jay Lassiter

Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 06:34:35 AM EDT

An unexamined life is not worth living.

Here's a place for anyone who doesn't mind giving the rest of us a "peek."

Update on my campaign: 48 hours to victory!

by: Stephen Yellin

Sun Oct 31, 2010 at 10:37:27 AM EDT

Hi all,

Stephen Yellin, aka "Mr. Liberal" here. As a blogger at Blue Jersey since 2005, I've been able to take some of the lessons learned from writing here in the blogosphere, and put them to good use as a candidate.

I want to give you all a final update on my campaign for Township Council in Berkeley Heights, in Union County . With E-Day just 48 hours away (45 in New Jersey, since the polls open at 6AM EST), I can truthfully say that I have a good shot at victory on Tuesday.

It hasn't been easy, running in a Republican-leaning town in a Republican-leaning year. So why do I have a "good shot"? Read on below to find out...

Poll: Rush Holt leads by eight

by: Hopeful

Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 01:33:34 PM EDT

Congressman Rush Holt has slightly widened his lead in the race for New Jersey's 12th Congressional District, according to the Monmouth University Poll. The incumbent Democrat garners support from 51% of likely voters in the district, which is identical to his support level from two weeks ago. However, Republican Scott Sipprelle's support has slipped by 3 points to 43% in the current poll...

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone with 1042 likely voters from October 25 to 27, 2010. This sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percent.

51% is enough to win but not enough to take anything for granted.  Volunteer this week to help our best Representative.  

Rutgers Poll: This one has Adler and Runyan tied

by: Hopeful

Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 05:50:37 PM EDT

We are out today with our third and final poll of the NJ third congressional district race between Democratic incumbent John Adler and Republican challenger Jon Runyan. Oh, and don't forget purported "Tea Party" candidate Peter DeStefano. The upshot? It's tied. All locked up. 44-44. No space between the two candidates. At least among those we believe to be likely voters. And DeStefano - his 4-5 percent could be making the difference.

Professor Redlawsk discussess the cell phone issue (Rutgers polls land lines only), party unity (Democrats more united), donkeys (even Republicans bothered by their use as a tax dodge), the enthusiasm gap (helps Runyan), desire for an outsider (that would be Runyan) and DeStefano (helping Adler at 5%, but also provoking a backlash.)

Obviously the combination of two small Runyan leads and an exact tie is still a narrow Runyan lead, but it looks too close to call. Redlawsk suggests the key to Democratic victory is turnout of registered Democrats. That's why we see President Obama pushing supporters to volunteer to contact voters. You can even do it online.

Heading into the Home Stretch

by: Stephen Yellin

Fri Oct 22, 2010 at 01:44:34 PM EDT

Hi all,

With just 11 days left until November 2nd, I've been working hard to win in Berkeley Heights, where I'm running for Township Council. My website is http://www.bhdems.com , so take a look if you want to learn more about me after reading this.  

Lessons I'm learning as a Candidate

by: Stephen Yellin

Fri Oct 01, 2010 at 10:36:19 PM EDT

Hi all,

A little over a month has passed since I last updated the blogosphere on how my campaign for Township Council (in Berkeley Heights, New Jersey) is progressing. You can read the previous updates here and here.

With a month and a day remaining before Election Day, I wanted to provide an update on the race, and offer some thoughts on what it's like to be a candidate.

My Campaign Website
Why I'm running for Township Council | NJ.com
Credentials for running for Berkeley Heights Council | NJ.com
Article from Woman's Day website

Adler-Runyan Poll: Yes, it's a toss-up

by: Hopeful

Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 05:53:52 PM EDT

More voters approve than disapprove of the job freshman Congressman John Adler is doing, but enough voters are looking for change in Washington that challenger Jon Runyan is within striking distance.

With five weeks to go before Election Day, the poll of likely voters found the incumbent with a narrow lead within the poll's margin of error - 42% for Democrat Adler to 39% for Republican Runyan, with 13% undecided. Adler leads by 48% to 35% in the Burlington and Camden Counties portion of the district, while Runyan has a 44% to 34% advantage among Ocean County voters.

In related questions, Adler's job approval is 49-34.  DeStefano is at 4%.  Click through to see various breakdowns on issues, which are all pretty even.  (Also, see third poll below the break.)

Adler-Runyan race is a toss-up

by: Hopeful

Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 04:12:15 PM EDT

Professor Redlawsk tells us on his blog:

Still, as the release below shows, Adler is in reasonable position for an incumbent Democrat in a marginal seat given the prevailing winds of 2010. He seems to be so because most likely voters in the district actually say they prefer experience over an outsider and because he is seen somewhat more favorably than is his opponent Republican Jon Runyan.

He has a detailed discussion of the likely voter screen. The likely voter sample is 41-39-6 for Adler-Runyan-DeStafano. Adler has a nine point lead 40-31-6 with registered voters. Turnout looks to be killing Democrats, as Obama's twitter feed suggested yesterday:

The other side is counting on you staying home this Nov. They're counting on your silence. They are betting on your apathy. Prove them wrong

An Update on my Campaign

by: Stephen Yellin

Mon Aug 16, 2010 at 01:15:47 PM EDT

[crossposted from DailyKos]

Hello all,

Four months ago, I set out on an unusual political journey.

It was unusual because, unlike all the campaigns I had worked on before, the campaign I was working on was my own. In April, I filed to run for Township Council in my hometown of Berkeley Heights, New Jersey. I decided to run because now was the right time in my life to try and give back to my community in the way I knew best - through public service. With three months to go until Election Day, I wanted to give you an update on how my campaign is going.

My campaign website
NJ Courier-News candidate statement
More bloggers throwing hats in ring (see page 2)

Polls and the Adler-Runyan Race

by: Hopeful

Fri Aug 13, 2010 at 02:53:21 PM EDT

Likely Voters: Adler 40, Runyan 30, Don't Know 22, Won't Vote in this race 8
Registered Voters: Adler 35, Runyan 28, Don't Know 23, Won't Vote 13

There are other permutations of the question, but I think these are two most important. On the one hand, Adler is ahead. On the other, he is way under 50%, a sign of danger for an incumbent. In July, Adler released an internal poll where he lead by 17 (51-34)  Statistically, such poll announcements favor the releaser by an extra 6-7% or so.  (That is, Adler or Runyan would only release polls that happen to show unusually large/lucky leads, while our faithful Professor releases all results.)  17-7=10, so you might call the polls in good agreement with my proposed correction. Runyan has not released anything, so it now does seem likely Adler is ahead.

Other "generic" polls of New Jersey suggest that other Democratic incuments should be fine:

Monmouth: Own Congressman Favorable-Unfavorable: 54 - 28 (July)
Rutgers Democratic Districts: 41-22 (February)
Rutgers Statewide Generic: 33-31 (February)
FDU Statewide Generic: 47-39 (February)

Nationally the picture is more grim. In 2008, Democrats nationwide won the House vote by 8.9% They are currently trailing nationwide by 4.7% according to TPM's Poll Tracker calculation. Obama won NJ3 52-47, and Adler won 52-48. A twelve point swing would obviously bring Runyan to victory, and indeed Christie did win the district according to Redlawsk.  On the other hand, the latest NBC/WSJ poll shows a huge (55-30) lead for Democrats in the Northeast, so the devastating swings may be elsewhere.  

Pascrell: "What the hell do they think we've been doing"

by: Jason Springer

Mon Jul 19, 2010 at 02:15:00 PM EDT

"there is no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control"

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) led a closed-door meeting of Democratic members that amounted to an extended Gibbs smackdown -- the proceedings of which inevitably were leaked to the media. In a subsequent interview, Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr. (N.J.) nicely summed up the sentiment in the room. "What the hell do they think we've been doing the last 12 months?" he said of the White House. "We're the ones who have been taking the tough votes."

Menendez appears on Meet the Press

by: Jason Springer

Sun Jul 18, 2010 at 12:06:29 PM EDT

You can see the segments of the show here:

'Change is in the air,' says Rep. Sessions

What was the impact of Gibbs' House remark?

Obama 'absolutely' an asset, says Van Hollen

What will GOP agenda be if it regains power?

Cornyn: 'Slanderous' to accuse Tea party of racism

Will Dems hold House? Lawmakers' predictions

RNC, DNC chairs make '74 midterm predictions

Budget passes Assembly and Senate

by: Jason Springer

Tue Jun 29, 2010 at 06:23:00 AM EDT

Nelson Albano (D-Vineland), Upendra Chivukula (D-Franklin Twp.), Albert Coutinho (D-Newark), Joe Cryan (D-Union Twp.), Matt Milam (D-Vineland), Assembly SPeaker Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange), Ruben Ramos (D-Hoboken), and Caridad Rodriguez (D-West New York).

All day, Republicans were busy patting themselves on the back, singing their own praises and clumsily defending the choices they made. Democrats were decrying the final budget product and priorities, calling out tax increases and trying to frame the budget as only continuing the problems of our state placing a greater burden on those who can least afford it.

That will be the debate in the upcoming election along with the property tax problem. What is your reaction to the budget process and the end result?

Headed to a recount in the 6th

by: Jason Springer

Mon Jun 14, 2010 at 06:25:14 PM EDT

"A recount is the only legal mechanism we have to secure confidence in the result, ensuring that no errors in the tabulation of votes have taken place," said Gooch Campaign Manager Tony Sayegh. "There are also some specific concerns we have about the treatment of Vote By Mail ballot requests, the security and custody of election materials, and electronic data cartridges arriving with error messages that must be investigated further. This will be done as expeditiously as possible; we look forward to determining a winner in the near future."

Little, a tea party-backed candidate who raised one-twentieth the amount of campaign funds Gooch did, doubted Gooch could overcome the 84 vote deficit when most were recorded on electronic machines.

"She has the right to do that," she said. "I don't believe it's going to change anything."

New Jersey 2010 Primaries results thread

by: Hopeful

Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 09:06:37 PM EDT

Results are coming in from around the state.  House results at NJ.com:

At 9:02PM, Runyan at 6022 (55%) to Murphy at 4887 (45%). Not a strong showing by Runyan but a lead is a lead.

In NJ6, Little at 2,806 (53%) leads Gooch at 2448 (47%.) I find that surprising. It is 25% Reporting.

Lance is at only 56% but easily leads the nearest of his challengers.  Just 5% reporting there.

Adler is at 77% with 26% reporting.

There are lots of interesting primaries in other states -- I recommend Swing State Project, Talking Points Memo, and Daily Kos.

Update (9:14pm): Forgot to check NJ12, where teabagger Corsi leads Sipprelle 55%-45% with 19% reporting.  

Update (9:42) Runyan wins 56% to 44% with 98% reporting. Little still leads Gooch and Corsi still leads Sipprelle, but lots of districts still to report.

Update (9:58): Sipprelle just pulled ahead by a few hundred votes with 63% reporting.  Little has a nearly eight hundred vote lead with 43% reporting.

Update (10:13): Sipprelle remains ahead 6,506 to 6,113 with 71% reporting.  Little leads 5,639 to 4,981 with 64% reporting. I have no idea what districts are still out and whom they would favor.

Update (10:30) Gooch keeps creeping closer, but Little still leads 6000 to 5568 with 77% reporting. This is going to be very close.
Sipprelle is still leading.

Update (10:48) Photo finish coming! Little 6171, Gooch 5866 with 86% reporting.  

Update (11:10) The AP/NJ.com results say it's Little 6674 to Gooch 6579 with 99% reporting. Contradictory headlines have flashed by at PolitickerNJ but I think the small Little lead is correct. I imagine there will be a recount but it looks like Little will just barely make it.

Sipprelle pulled away in the late reporting districts and ended up winning 8,800 (54%) to 7521 (46%).  

Update (11:46) I should say Runyan ended up with 60%, better than the earlier reports.  

Americans have more opportunities to vote... but we're oblivious to it

by: Jason Springer

Mon Jun 07, 2010 at 02:27:19 PM EDT

New Jersey voters are barely aware that they have chance to vote the bums out-or in again, as they wish-on a balmy Tuesday in June, according to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind™. In that survey, fourteen percent correctly noted that the next time the public would have an opportunity to vote would be the state's June primary election.

Most voters (48%) thought the next time would be in November. A few (4%) figured they'd have to wait until the 2012 presidential election. Many said they just didn't know (30%).

"Americans have more opportunities to vote than any other people in the world," said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll. "But we're oblivious to it."