I went over this morning to the staging area in Cherry Hill where labor was gathering to get out the vote. Many elected officials were there including Governor Corzine, Senator Menendez, Congressman Andrews, Senator Sweeney, Speaker Roberts and more:
Here is a shot of the Governor speaking with women before the rally began:
I'll put more photos and some video of the speakers below the fold.
As Jason Springer reports at the Blue Jersey blog, this may not be the only incident of copyright law violation by the Christie campaign. Springer points to a recent ad that features footage with a watermark from Pond5, a company that sells stock video footage. The watermark suggests the Christie campaign used free samples from the company, and did not license the footage, Springer says.
This is your chance to predict what happens in tomorrow's election. As for me, I have read every poll released this year and frankly I don't know who's going to win. The pollster.com poll predictor has the race exactly tied: Jon Corzine 42.0%, Chris Christie 42.0%, Chris Dagget 10.1%. Chris Christie is ahead in six of the last ten polls.
Here are some predictions -- or just comments -- on the race from experts I respect:
Collectively, those polls have tipped the polling forecast ever so slightly in Christie's favor. He now leads the (nearly) final polling average by 0.09%. Further, going back to 2004, my research shows that the Democratic nominee in statewide campaigns gained 0.10% or more from the final poll margin to the final vote margin in only 55 of 130, or 42.3%, of the statewide elections I have examined. So, the odds are now in (barely) Christie's favor.
Nate Silver at 538.com has abandoned his statistical methods (or rather, can't add anything to the polls): "Obviously, anybody's race, but I'd make Christie about the 4:3 favorite."
Rasmussen: "About the only thing certain in New Jersey at the moment is that the next governor will be someone that is disliked by at least half the state."
That's right, none of them is willing to predict the winner.
We also have the public question to approve open space bonds and the entire Assembly up for election.
AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka and other union leaders will pay a visit to New Jersey tomorrow, accompanying Corzine as he goes on an Election Day get-out-the-vote bus tour. In addition, union member-to-member outreach tomorrow will involve 15,000 volunteers reaching out to some 225,000 union household voters through 500 phone banks, door-to-door canvassing and 125 worksite leafleting visits. This final push builds on several weeks of volunteer effort by union members educating other union members about Corzine, Christie and the stakes in tomorrow's election.
I plan to be in Cherry Hill when Governor Corzine holds a meet and greet with labor before they head out to get out the vote.
It does appear that the Christie campaign has used stock footage from Pond5 without licensing it, in violation of both our license agreement and copyright law. We have brought this to our legal counsel and will be determining a course of action soon.
Late Update: The video has now been restored on Christie's YouTube page -- apparently in a rush, as it was done with watermarks and all. Bennett told us that at 3:43 p.m. ET, someone associated with the Christie campaign bought permissions for all the relevant videos. "So it looks like they're doing damage control," Bennett said.
I find it hilarious that even though they own the rights now, they still are running the ad with the watermarks. So is this their closing statement on the campaign or copyright infringement?
Just when you thought you were done with the polls, FDU is out with a poll that shows the Governor holding a slim two point lead over Chris Christie:
Polling over the past 11 days by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind™ shows that Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie continued down to the wire in a close contest in the race for New Jersey governor. Reporting 1119 interviews of likely voters from Oct. 22 through Nov. 1 shows Corzine maintaining 43% support including leaners, against 41%, including leaners, for Christie, with 8% for independent Chris Daggett, 2% preferring other candidates, and 5% undecided, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
This part of the poll memo confused me as they separated white women from the rest of women:
Democrats often have a significant advantage among women, offsetting a Republican advantage among men, but this year white women split evenly between Corzine and Christie (42-42) while white men prefer Christie by a large margin (55-29).
Does that mean that women and men who weren't white didn't help them make their point? They say that a majority of voters think that no matter what the numbers say now, Jon Corzine will be the Governor once again:
Nonetheless, more than half of voters (56%) say they think Corzine will win the election, against 28% who think that Christie will win. One percent say Daggett will win, and 15% say they don't know who will pull this one out.
Polls only matter if the people who participate actually go and vote. That's all we have left now is the ground game.
Following months of campaigning and after 86 polls since August 2008, the final pollster.com average shows Corzine 42%, Christie 42%, Daggett 10.1%:
I don't know if the race can get much closer than that. If ever people thought their vote didn't matter, now is the time to show them just how much it does.
If Chris Christie is elected governor tomorrow, one of the first things that might hit his desk is a big fat lawsuit for copyright or trademark infringement, essentially the theft of someone's work product. The candidate who has held himself out as the law and order man is already being accused of violating copyrights for ripping off of Monty Python, but take a look at the "closing statement" from the Christie campaign:
You can even see a faint watermark on the screenshot of the video which Youtube pulled automatically. If you watch carefully, you will notice that a majority of the images they used in this ad still have the watermark on it:
What's their closing statement, our candidate was a US Attorney but doesn't understand any parts of the law? Or maybe it's really that they do think there is one set of rules and laws for their candidate, another set for the rest of us.
"This election will be defined by turnout like few others before it. Many Democrats are sitting on the sidelines and not considered to be likely voters at this point. They may be unenthusiastic about their governor, but can they be prodded to the polls for other reasons? If not, Christie may eke out the win,"
That about sums it up. At this point, it's all about who and how many people show up at the polls.
Note: For this article, I am relying on David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections. His website can be found at US Election Atlas
In just two days, voters will go to the polls in New Jersey to elect its Governor. Jon Corzine is locked in a dead heat with Republican Chris Christie, and it's clear that the winner will be the one that more successfully turns out their base of support. In a race that will probably be decided by a few percentage points either way, I feel it is worth examining where both sides will be expecting their votes to come from. Recent statewide elections in New Jersey have seen the Democrats win by comfortable margins, which will not be the case this year. What example, then, can we draw on to determine (as best we can) how New Jersey's 21 counties will vote in a close statewide election?
The final numbers on registered voters eligible to cast ballots in Tuesday's election show 1,766,669 New Jerseyans list themselves as Democrats and 1,061,899 signed up as Republicans. Another 2,393,679 consider themselves as unaffiliated and 2,633 are registered under other parties.
Nearly half of the registered voters are unaffiliated. The total number of registered voters at 5.22 million this year is down from 5.33 million last year for the Presidential election. Many of those people that are registered have either requested to vote early or already cast their ballot:
100,770 of those registered have already voted by mail, state Secretary of State Nina Mitchell Wells said as she announced the figures Friday at Rutgers University in New Brunswick. She said county clerks had issued 179,142 Vote by Mail ballots as of Thursday.
Here is what the Division of Elections had to say about people still wanting to use a vote-by-mail ballot:
"There is still time to apply for and vote using a vote-by-mail ballot, however, you must complete the application and return the voted ballot in person because the deadline for mailed applications has passed," said Robert Giles, director of the Division of Elections. "Registered voters may apply for a vote-by-mail ballot in person with a county clerk until 3 p.m. on Monday, November 2. To be accepted, all vote-by-mail ballots must be returned to your county Board of Election by 8 p.m. on Tuesday, November 3 (Election Day)."
The key will be who turns out comes Tuesday. We're in the heart of the Get Out the Vote operations for these campaigns, what are you doing to help make sure everyone casts their ballot.
There's been a lot of supposition over the years that the US Attorney's office under Chris Christie leaked like a sieve, slipping information damaging to Democrats to the press while holding tight to information that could hurt Republicans.
The evidence was largely circumstantial. How did the press find out about the subpoena to Bob Menendez just weeks before the Senatorial election? Why was Brian Thompson standing around as subpoenas were served on Democrats in the Christmas Tree investigation?
There is surely no fire here, and maybe only a scent of smoke from far away. But the actions and subpoenas of the past seven months are exactly what a US Attorney who was told to put pressure on the Democrats would start doing. Every time a Democrat starts gaining points, hit them with a subpoena. Every time a Republican needs to score points, make an announcement.
Well, now there's fire to go with the smoke. The Corzine FOIA requests for Christie's communications have unearthed actual phone slips of calls from the media to Christie late on the afternoon of February 27th, 2007 -- the day before subpoenas were dropped on three Democratic legislators.
Here's Brian Thompson of television's NBC News, talking with Christie the afternoon before the subpoenas dropped:
And here's Michael Gartland of The Record talking the same afternoon:
Both Thompson was hanging out at the statehouse just in time for the subpoenas on February 28th, 2007 ensuring quick coverage on television and the Internet.
It's no stretch to think that Christie was the leak, telling reporters about secret Grand Jury actions -- which is, by the way, a crime. Christie has to answer for this, and either reveal what he talked about with Thompson and Gartland that day or tacitly admit that he personally was the leak.
Before today it was easy to believe Christie used leaks from his office to aid in his political goals. After today it is hard to refute.
While huntsu has been all over the connections between Todd Christie, Joe Kyrillos, Chris Christie and the politicization of the US Attorneys office, Freedom of Information requests shed some more light on the situation:
Kyrillos left messages for Christie at the U.S. Attorney's office 48 times between 2002 and 2008, including 19 times while Kyrillos was the Republican State Chairman, according to a log of Christie's incoming phone calls requested by the Corzine campaign as part of an extensive series of document requests under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).
The Corzine campaign received the phone logs late Friday.
Most of the phone messages shed little information as to the topics Christie and Kyrillos were discussing. Kyrillos tended to call after 5PM, and would usually leave a message that offered little detail.
Kyrillos did call Christie on April 22, 2002, the day Todd Christie wrote a $225,000 check to the Republican State Committee.
After he takes the political appointment, the FEO is not supposed to be engaged in partisan politics very much but there is no such restriction on his close family. The FEO contributes $2000 to his candidate -- and now boss -- for the reelection campaign, and his wife does the same. The FEO's brother's wife gives another two checks for $3000 [2]to the candidate and three checks for $4500 [2, 3]to the national party, but the brother beats them all.
Soon after the FEO takes office, the brother contributes a single check worth $225,000 to the national party, and since then another three individual $25,000 [2, 3] checks for a grand total of $300,000 to the national party. But that's not all. The brother also issued checks over the past few years since FEO took office for $20,000, $25,000 and $25000 to the NJ party's state fund, and checks of $5,000, $10,000 and $10,000 to the federal fund. A check for $5,000 is reimbursed.
Now we know that not only did brother Todd circulate the money around, but as the records show, brother Chris got a call from Kyrillos the same day as one of the larger contributions. It's pretty impressive how much of a woman ahead of her times huntsu was. It's also a shame the rest of the media wasn't paying as close attention as huntsu was. We may have found this information out confirming the suspicions of some more than 3 days before the election.
The Corzine campaign put out a web ad on Thursday hitting Chris Christie over his comments that pre-k is babysitting:They were reinforcing that message when the Governor went after Christie over his previous statements about pre-school at a press conference at a school in the Pennsauken school district, which has full day pre-school :
"Christie has let everyone know, repeatedly, that he thinks pre-k is 'babysitting'", said Corzine. "Now he is letting everyone know that if he were to be elected governor next week he would eliminate funding for this critical educational tool in 115 districts all across New Jersey. Christie would turn his back on more than 8,500 kids across New Jersey. He continues to be extremely wrong when it matters most."
In a Press of AC interview last week, Christie said he would stop state funding for pre-school in all but the 31 former "Abbott" districts. The newspaper reported that Christie's plan "would eliminate funding for 115 districts . . . This year, 146 districts received $570.1 million for pre-school aid." In Union County alone, 583 children would be locked out with 255 kids in Linden alone sent home.
The Governor's campaign said that Christie would turn his back on more than 8,500 Children. I'll put their breakdown below the fold.
It has all come down to this. As I am sure you all know, here in New Jersey Election Day is next Tuesday, November 3rd. So, right now, Jon Corzine and Loretta Weinberg need our help during this final stretch run. Your support and hard work could make the difference in one of the most important races in the country, and in the most important gubernatorial race I have seen in my lifetime.
This election is simply too important for anyone to sit on the sidelines. In tough times, Governor Corzine is standing up for New Jersey's families. He's worked hard to provide healthcare coverage for more children and protect property tax rebates for seniors and working families. Governor Corzine's investments in health care, green technology and education have shown that he is the leader New Jersey needs to get us through these difficult times.
Fox news host Shepard Smith wasn't happy with the fact that there wasn't someone ready to counter the comments of Chris Christie and apologized for the 'Lack of Balance' In their New Jersey Governor's Race Story. Have a look:Maybe he should talk to their host who got offended when Congressman Andrews asked for some fair and balanced reporting the other day.
In an interview on Sirius-XM Radio early Wednesday, Daggett said businessman Christy Mihos had called him to urge him to quit the race, saying he may be blamed for giving Corzine four more years. Mihos ran for Massachusetts governor as an independent in 2006, and he is now running as a Republican for that post.
"He felt that he did a lousy job when he ran [as] an independent, and now people are blaming him for it, and trying to act as though, or worry that I might be blamed in New Jersey for a Republican losing," Daggett said.
But Daggett wasn't having any of that talk and pushed back as he has consistently against arguments that he was going to cost the GOP the race:
"If the Republicans lose in New Jersey, they've got to look in the mirror," Daggett said. "The Republicans are the party of no. They don't participate meaningfully in the debate about how to fix things."
Daggett, asked if Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele had contacted him, said no. But, he said, Republicans "have sent other missionaries."
A spokesman for the Republican Governors Association said the organization did not urge Mihos to contact Daggett.
This isn't the first time in this campaign we've seen a candidate receive pressure from the right side to drop their campaigns. In the primary, Rick Merckt said that John Inglesino, a fundraiser for and friend of Chris Christie offered him a "major position" if he dropped his run for office. Christie of course said Inglesino was just a volunteer and that he had no knowledge of the offer. I guess they just figure they can't lose to people they don't actually end up running against.
Governor Tim Kaine, Chairman of the DNC will make 3 stops to campaign with Governor Corzine and Senator Weinberg tomorrow:
Gov. Kaine will first join Lieutenant Governor candidate Senator Loretta Weinberg at an event with American Federation of Teachers and Health Professional & Allied Employees union members in Saddle Brook before speaking at the Hispanic Bar Association of New Jersey's 30th Annual Installation Ceremony of the President and 2009/2010 Officers and Trustees in Hoboken. Later in the evening, Kaine will join Governor Corzine in Harrison for Mayor Raymond McDonough's Annual Cocktail Party.
If you live anywhere in the area, we'll put the event information below the fold. If you go to any of the events, take a few pictures for your friends at Blue Jersey and write about it in a diary.
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