People and Things that should disappear from New Jersey in 2010

by: tabbycat31

Thu Dec 31, 2009 at 12:03:53 PM EST

As 2009 comes to a close, it's the time to make lists reflecting the year that was and what the New Year should bring.  In the "out with the old, in with the new" spirit, here's 10 people/things that were prominent in New Jersey in 2009 that I think should be swept out when the ball drops tonight.  

1) Chris Christie--- Will this happen?  Unfortunately, no.  But a girl can dream can't she?  I worked very hard this election season on Jon Corzine's campaign partially because the thought of Christie administration scared me.  I saw Chris Christie and had visions of George W. Bush and Karl Rove and it made me work even harder for Corzine.   Now as he's Governor-elect, my best hope is that he's not as bad as I envisioned during the campaign.   That and hoping that Cory Booker's political career remains scandal-free and he's ready for Trenton in 2013.  
2) Jennifer Beck - As a volunteer for Garden State Equality for much of 2009, we were targeting State Senator Jennifer Beck (R-Monmouth).  I truly thought that she could be one of the Republicans to forget the party line and stand up and do her job, which is to vote on behalf of her constituents, who overwhelmingly favor marriage equality.  During the Senate judiciary committee hearing on marriage equality, Beck remained silent the whole time, while staring at her cell phone.  She personally supports marriage equality as do her constituents, but she voted no on the bill.  Rumor has it that she has much higher political ambitions than state senator (such as challenging Frank Pallone for his congressional seat or becoming a member of the Christie administration), and most likely voting with her heart and against her party's interest will harm those political ambitions, particularly after the Republicans came out with a purity test for candidates.
3) Reality TV shows that trash New Jersey's Reputation--- Even though I am not a fan of reality TV, two shows of 2009 did more harm than good to the state of New Jersey. (I will also admit that I have never watched either show.)  MTV's "Jersey Shore" and Bravo's "The Real Housewives of New Jersey" did nothing positive for New Jersey, portraying New Jerseyans as loud, obnoxious, and spoiled.  This is not true for most New Jerseyans I know, and we deserve better.  
4) Political Corruption--- During the summer of 2009, the New Jersey news was plagued by a corruption scandal that sent a total of 44 politicians and rabbis to jail for corruption and money laundering.  New Jersey already had a reputation as "The Soprano State" and this just made our image to the country worse.  
5) Gerald Cardinale--- I never knew much about this guy until I watched the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings on marriage equality.  Some of the things that Senator Caridnale (R-Bergen) said were just vile and disgusting, and frankly I thought New Jersey was above those juvenile comments such as comparing marriage equality to polygamy.  I guess bigotry comes in all shapes and forms, and in New Jersey its form is a dentist from Bergen County.
6) Lou Dobbs-While nobody knows the real reason why the CNN host resigned from his job, rumor has it that he has political ambitions-to challenge New Jersey Senator Robert Menendez in 2012.  Lou Dobbs has a history of racism (particularly against Latinos), and I find it very ironic that he wants to challenge the lone Latino in the Senate.  Hopefully this is just speculation, and New Jersey will not have to deal with politician Lou Dobbs.  
7) The National Organization for Marriage-Unfortunately this group is headquartered in New Jersey, and until recently they spent most of their focus out of state.  However now that the battle for marriage equality is in full swing here in NJ, they're running the same vile ads that they've run in other states.   The bottom line is that eventually they're going to eventually be fighting a losing battle as there's a huge generation gap when it comes to supporting marriage equality.  The younger generation overwhelmingly supports it, and sees that if the gay couple down the street gets married, it has no effect on them whatsoever.  
8) The New Jersey Democratic Party machine--- I am writing this as a loyal New Jersey Democrat.  I've been a foot soldier for the party in the last two elections, and we were handed a huge defeat in November.  This does not have to be a trend.  Blue Jersey has a wonderful thread about what the next New Jersey Democratic Party should do filled with strategies on how to engage voters, increase turnout, and get more people excited about politics.
9) Corporate Money's Influence in politics-With the whole debate on health care reform that summed up 2009, the  influence of the health industry's money showed up in previously unknown politicians who were key in authoring legislation on healthcare reform (such as Max Baucus of Montana).  When it came to change a few things regarding the pharmaceutical industry (allowing the government to negotiate with Big Pharma for lower drug prices and allowing importation of lower priced drugs from countries like Canada), both Robert Menendez and Frank Lautenberg voted on behalf of Big Pharma instead of the people of New Jersey.  I get that New Jersey's home to several of the pharmaceutical companies, but I also think that the American people should have access to lower drug prices the same way the rest of the world does.  
10) Voter Apathy- One of the things that drives me crazy (especially after working on Corzine's campaign) is that many voters feel that not liking a politician on the top of the ticket is reason to stay home on Election Day.  This was especially true for younger and minority voters who were so excited about voting for President Obama last year (many were first-time voters in 2008).  There's not always going to be a candidate like President Obama on the ticket in every election, but that is no reason to stay home.  I was raised to believe that voting is my civic duty, and that if I stayed home on Election Day, I lost my right to complain about anything politically related for the duration of the politician's term.  I wish more people shared my sense of civic responsibility.  2010 will be a tough election in New Jersey for turnout as there is no statewide race, and the House is at the top of the ticket.  I hope that New Jersey Democrats prove everyone wrong like they could not do in 2009.

Just as in 2009, mammograms could play a prominent role in 2010 elections

by: Jason Springer

Wed Dec 16, 2009 at 06:47:40 PM EST

With women's health issues increasingly at the forefront of the health care debate, pols have turned breast cancer into a potent campaign weapon. The volume in the war has ramped up in recent weeks after a government task force released findings - widely criticized by women's groups - recommending that it was unnecessary for women under 50 to screen for breast cancer.

"It resonates with 52 percent of the electorate," said Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor for the Cook Political Report. "You can get yourself in a good bit of trouble being on the wrong side of the issue."

The focus on breast cancer signals a willingness on behalf of both parties to play political hardball on an issue typically outside the bounds of the campaign arena. While parties have clashed over abortion - another issue central to women's health concerns - the heated political rhetoric surrounding mammograms, experts say, is beyond the norm.

As early as this fall, with two governor's races up for grabs, Democrats had sought to turn the breast cancer issue against their Republican opponents. During the closing weeks of the New Jersey governor's race, Gov. Jon Corzine launched a full-bore TV assault accusing GOP rival Chris Christie of backing a health care policy that would not guarantee mammography coverage for women - a move that, at least temporarily, put the Republican on the defensive.

"No wonder why the insurance industry backs Christie's plan: Fewer mammograms. Bigger profits," one Corzine TV ad declared.

For Corzine, locked in a tough race, the strategy was straightforward: move the dial among women - a group of traditionally Democratic-leaning voters whose support Corzine was struggling to secure.

"I think it was effective in New Jersey," said Peter Woolley, executive director of the Farleigh Dickinson University Public Mind Poll, noting in the final month of the race Corzine jumped 6 percent among women on the question of whether he understood the needs of the average voter. "It clearly didn't move him enough, but it did help him with white women."

How Christie won: Urban and Northern New Jersey

by: Alibguy

Thu Dec 10, 2009 at 09:41:23 AM EST

Here is the link to the 2008 election results (red is Democratic and blue is Republican)http://http//uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Here is the link to the 2009 election results: http://http//uselectionatlas.o...

Here is the link for New Jersey demographics by county: http://http//quickfacts.census...

You can also find this post and more election analysis on my blog http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

Urban New Jersey
This area contains Union, Essex and Hudson Counties. Christie underperformed the most in this part of the state with Corzine winning it almost 2-1. This was no surprise because Urban New Jersey is by far the most Democratic part of the state. It is minority majority and mostly resembles a city instead of suburbs. Christie also was unable to make large inroads here. In Hudson County where Obama won 73%-26%, Corzine won 69%-27% which only shows a decrease in the Democratic margin by 5 points, the smallest decrease of any county in New Jersey from 2008 to 2009. Hudson County is 35% White, one of the smallest percentages in New Jersey. Christie had a difficult time making inroads among minority voters. The main reason for Christie's small increase is that Corzine lives in Hoboken, a really nice town in Hudson County where many transplants from Manhattan live. Corzine's proximity was a large factor in Hudson County. Since Christie had a difficult time winning minority voters, it appears that Republicans can still win in New Jersey without having to make inroads among minorities if they want to win. Essex County which contains heavily Democratic Newark voted 67%-28% for Corzine while Obama won there 76%-23%. This shows a 14 point decrease in the Democratic margin, only 5 points below the statewide decrease of 19 points. Even though Corzine appeared to hold minorities, there are many independent high income white voters in the western part of Essex County that trended heavily toward Christie, causing the Democratic margin in Essex County to shrink. Union County is where Christie performed the best, decreasing Obama's 28 point margin to an eight point margin for Corzine. While Union County contains Elizabeth and Plainfield, two cities with large minority populations, Union County is basically Somerset County in the west with heavily white and high income Westfield and Summit. In my post about what to watch for in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, I said Corzine had to win Union County but ten points or more and unfortunately, he did not. Overall, Corzine did very well in Urban New Jersey by preventing Christie from making large inroads among minorities.

Northern New Jersey
Except for Passaic and Bergen Counties, Christie did very well here. He pulled a combined margin of about 30,000 votes out of Sussex and Warren Counties, even though Daggett did very well in them winning 9% and 10% of the vote there. Christie won his home county, Morris by 28 points and its residents are mostly high income white voters. The trend towards Christie over 2008 was 19 points, the same as the overall trend towards him in New Jersey. The reason for the trend not being too sharp in Morris County is party due to Daggett's strong 8% of the vote here and that Christie appeared to spend more time campaigning on the Shore than here. Passaic County is a different story where Corzine won 51%-44% and Obama won there by 22 points. Passaic County is a mixture of Hispanic immigrants in the city of Paterson and high income white voters in the suburbs along with some working class white voters. The Hispanics probably kept Passaic County from trending too far to the right but it appears that Christie did very well with white voters and Corzine failed to excite the base enough. Corzine won Bergen County by 3 points, only a 6 point decrease from Obama's 9 point win. Corzine was definitely helped by his running mate Loretta Weinberg who has held political office in Bergen County for more than 20 years. Bergen County is full of high income white voters and if Weinberg were not on the ballot, Christie would probably win Bergen County by about 7 points. Weinberg was not perfect because she was unpopular with party bosses which probably contributed to low turnout in Democratic areas. Also, Corzine's close proximity in Hudson County may have swayed a few voters.

So overall, what happened to make Corzine lose? On the issues, people swayed towards Christie not because he was a fantastic candidate. People believed Corzine was an ineffective Governor who caused the New Jersey economy to sour while Corzine still had money. Also, Corzine made the mistake of not appeasing the New Jersey Democratic Party. If he had chosen a popular party official as his running mate instead of Weinberg who was unpopular with the party, Corzine may have been able to boost turnout enough to offset Christie's margins. A good person for running mate would be Richard Codey who was the New Jersey Senate President. He was active Governor in 2005 and he is extremely popular with New Jersey's Democratic Party. The turnout levels in Democratic counties was about 50%-60% of the 2008 Presidential election turnout while turnout in Republican counties was closer to 66%. Christie on his part excited the base because he portrayed himself as one of the voters on the Shore or in the high income suburbs. He also took independents by highlighting New Jersey's poor economy. The main reason though is that Christie swept the high income voters who trended towards the Democrats in the 1990's because the Republicans were too socially Conservative. Now that the Republicans are downplaying their social Conservatism and highlighting the poor economy, they are able to win in the Northeast suburbs again. Christie campaigned on lowering taxes which usually resonates with the high income suburban white voter. The party not in the white house has won New Jersey's Governorship since 1981 so this may not be the start of a trend. If Democrats want to prevent Republicans from winning in New Jersey, Democrats have to excite the base while also reaching out to the white high income socially moderate but economically Conservative suburban voter.

How Christie Won: Southern and Central New Jersey

by: Alibguy

Sat Dec 05, 2009 at 08:01:45 PM EST

First, some information about New Jersey statewide and some helpful links:
It was a pretty sad result when Christie beat Corzine 49%-45% with Daggett winning most of the remaining 6%. It looks like Charlie Brown finally kicked the football in New Jersey. Corzine also learned that running ads criticizing your opponent's weight does NOT gain voters and that the candidate who campaigns on lower taxes does well with upper income white independents. On average, Corzine won 12 points less than Obama and the margin between 2008 and 2009 shifted towards the Republicans by 19 points. Corzine did not lose much ground among minority voters but Obama performed much better among independent white voters.  My next diary, this time analyzing Urban and Northern New Jersey should be up soon. The counties I designated for each region are Burlington, Ocean Counties and all the counties south of them for Southern New Jersey. The counties in Central NJ are Monmouth, Mercer, Hunterdon, Somerset and Middlesex. I will make many references to my post called "what to watch for during election night" which I posted a week and a half before November 3rd (when Daggett was polling in the teens) so I highly recommend reading it first. The link is here:
http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

: http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...
This other link is for Presidential election results in 2008. Once you click the link, go to the icon choose another office, select gubernatorial races, select a year and you should find yourself a map. Yes, the maps here have red for Democrats and blue for Republicans.
http://quickfacts.census.gov/q...
this is for New Jersey's demographic data. Click on a county and you will find the data for each county.

Southern New Jersey
In my post on what to watch for on election night, I said that even if Corzine barely won, he should still lose Southern New Jersey. Corzine lost and he definitely lost Southern New Jersey. Camden County is the most urban county in Southern New Jersey and Obama won 67% of the vote there in 2008. I said that Corzine needed to win by at least 15 points to win. Corzine barely missed, winning by 14 points. This explains that Christie was able to win white middle class independents but Christie lost Camden County because of heavily Democratic Camden City and its close suburbs. In my last post, I said that if Corzine won Gloucester County, he was successful with winning white voters in Camden County. Christie won Gloucester County by three points so Christie's success among the Camden County suburban voter was widespread. Gloucester County has the same demographics as Camden County without the inner city. I found heavily white and rural Salem County's result unexpected. Christie won by six points and since the county narrowly voted for Obama, I would have expected a larger Christie win. The answer to this question could be that Daggett peeled away enough Christie voters to narrow the margin. Daggett won 10% of the vote in Salem.
Another interesting result is Cape May County where Obama won 45% of the vote but Corzine won 38%, higher than counties with similar counties on the Jersey Shore. This could be because Kim Guadango, Christie's running mate helped him in Monmouth and Ocean Counties further north but not at Cape May. Corzine won Cumberland County 50%-42% winning ten points less than Obama. I expected a smaller drop here due to large numbers of minority voters.

As in past elections, Atlantic County was the complete bellwether in the race as it was in 2000, 2004, 2005 and 2008. Christie won 49% of the vote and only 0.05% less than his statewide average, 48.75%. Atlantic County's population is 61% White, one point less than New Jersey's 62% White population. Atlantic County culturally may be closer to Las Vegas on the beach than the rest of New Jersey but Atlantic County has a close proportion to the rest of New Jersey of urban, suburban and rural areas. Ocean County just to Atlantic County's north voted for Christie by 38 points and the increase over McCain's margin in 2008 was only a bit above the average increase. The important point is the turnout which is about 2/3 the level of 2008, showing that Christie was able to turn out the base. Another important county was Burlington County which usually votes 1-2 points more Democratic than New Jersey and has similar demographics to Camden County. Christie won Burlington County by two points showing his narrow margin among the demographic of southwestern New Jersey white voters. Overall, Southern New Jersey voted similar to what I expected.

Central New Jersey:
Christie received large margins here, losing only one county. Christie lost Mercer County which contains heavily Democratic Trenton by only 16 points, 19 points less than Obama. Most of the voting was polarized with Christie gaining more than average over McCain while Christie gained less in heavily Democratic areas. Mercer County was a different story because even though it was a base county, the base did not turn out and Christie made inroads among the white voters here. In Monmouth County on the Shore, Christie's running Kim Guadango who is from Monmouth County definitely helped him there. Obama lost Monmouth County by three points even though it is an upper class county that is 77% White. Christie won by 31 points, improving over McCain's margin by 28 points. The large increase is probably due to not only Guadango but also that Daggett was unable to garner enough votes. He won only 6% of the vote and I expected the Shore would be a strong area for Daggett. If Daggett stayed strong and won somewhere around 15% of the vote, he probably would have reduced Christie 64,000 vote margin in Monmouth County by about 15,000. Another reason for Monmouth County's strong Christie result is that the suburban white voters in New York/New Jersey are trending towards the Republicans. As long as the Republicans stay away from cultural issues, they can start winning these voters again. Also, 9/11 was a factor for voters in Monmouth County which lost many residents due to the attack. If Democrats want to win a majority of white suburban voters in New York/New Jersey, they need to clearly highlight how they will save those voters' jobs or create some for them but it will be hard to gain voters who vote Republican because of 9/11.

Moving onto Hunterdon County, Christie won there by 40 points, 27 points higher than McCain's 13 point margin. Hunterdon County has wealthy independents and the large shift towards Christie is probably because Obama over performed with wealthy independents and they are reverting back to their normal voting patterns. Also, many of the wealthy voters may have trusted Wall Street but felt betrayed because they believed a former Wall Street corporate executive could not fix their economy. Somerset County is less Republican but contains many of the same voters as Hunterdon County. When I saw the Middlesex County result, I was pretty shocked. Obama won there by 22 points but Christie won by three. Middlesex County was not extremely white; its population was 53% White. Most of the minorities were Hispanic or Asians but Christie did not appear to make inroads among Hispajnics. His website did not even have a Spanish version while Corzine's did. My explanation would be that Corzine failed to turn out the base and Christie did extremely well with white independents. Another possibility is that Christie made inroads among some moderate Asian groups.

Overall, in Southern and Central New Jersey, Christie and Guandango's homes helped them win voters while sweeping independents and preventing Corzine from turning out his base.  

Lowest turnout on record, but most voters since 1997

by: Jason Springer

Thu Dec 03, 2009 at 10:00:00 AM EST

Turnout was 46.9% - the lowest on record for a gubernatorial election, down from 48.5% in 2005 and 49.3% in 2001, the only other times less than half of registered voters turned out at the polls.

Looked at another way, though, the turnout of 2,451,704 voters was the most for a governor's race since 1997 and marked a 105,000 voter increase over the election four years ago.

The percentage turnout is affected by the presidential election registration surge typically seen every four years, which was particularly large in 2008. There were 390,000 more registered voters in 2009 than four years - and it's likely that a goodly number were interested in the race for the White House but less jazzed about the run for Drumthwacket.

Taking the wrong message away from the election

by: Jason Springer

Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 10:00:00 AM EST

A poll released last week showed that New Jerseyans narrowly support gay marriage.

But enthusiasm for the bill has waned since Christie, a social conservative, beat Corzine by 100,000 votes on Nov. 3. The election was widely viewed as a referendum on high property taxes, strangling state debt and continued unemployment...

...making some lawmakers skittish about taking on a potentially divisive issue like marriage equality.

RGA raised and contributed $7.3 million to Christie's campaign

by: Jason Springer

Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 10:15:00 AM EST

Led by Mr. Barbour, the RGA raised and contributed $7.3 million to the campaign of New Jersey candidate Chris Christie, allowing him to put up enough TV advertising to hold off both a late-surging Gov. Jon Corzine, the Democratic incumbent, and independent Chris Daggett. The result for the crime-busting former U.S. attorney, Mr. Christie, was a big victory in a state won easily by Barack Obama just a year earlier.

Quote of the Day: "It must be my beard"

by: Jason Springer

Fri Nov 13, 2009 at 04:15:00 PM EST

"I don't know, maybe it's, it must be my beard."

Chris Christie's Pollster on the polls

by: Hopeful

Thu Nov 12, 2009 at 08:53:23 AM EST

Before the election, we discussed how the robotic (IRV) polls consistently showed a Christie lead while the human interview polls often showed a tied race or a Corzine lead. The election results obviously make the IRV polls look great. That's worth remembering on its own since we often hear that they're a new methodology that is not reliable. Well, that piece of folk wisdom is wrong. So what does Geller have to say about it? He acknowledges the issue but says it is a matter of other choices made the pollster rather than the humans. I wonder. I get the impression he is going to great lengths avoiding the conclusion that the IRV polls are better.  

He argues that public polls should report their partisan spread and that they oversampled non-voters. He discusses the huge problem of the undeclared voters. He cautions that some pollsters (Carville, cough, cough, Shaftan, cough) may have an agenda. I think all of that is straightforward and we at least touched on these issues during the campaign.

What was new to me was his criticism of "random digit dialing" (RDD), where the pollster dials random digits, to make up random phone numbers, and then reach random potential voters. Here's what he says:

In general, RDD methodology is a bad choice in New Jersey, if the goal is predictive accuracy.

In New Jersey, there are many undeclared voters (commonly but mistakenly referred to as Independents). These undeclared voters identify themselves as Republicans or Democrats - even though they are not registered that way. In our polls, we frequently showed a Democrat registration advantage that matched their actual registration advantage - but when it came to partisan ID, the spread was more like a six point Democrat advantage. By using a voter list, we knew how a respondent was registered - and by seeing how they ID'ed themselves, we gained insight into the relative behavioral trends of undeclared voters and even registered Democrats who were self identifying as Independents. Public pollsters who dialed RDD missed this. Partisan identification in New Jersey is not enough, if the goal is to "get it right."

That makes a lot of sense to me. It must be more expensive and difficult to work from voter lists, but basing your turnout models on actual voters who really voted might work better. It also helps with this huge problem of people who think they are (say) Republicans but don't register that way. We also know that the turnout model was critical just from what the public pollsters told us: that Christie had a huge lead (bigger than the win, by the way) with "definite" voters but the less likely voters brought Corzine closer.  

Of course, at the end of the day, we don't know that Geller's polls were any better, when we recall we've never seen his numbers and I read between the lines. He invokes "insight we gained" which is rather different than 'results we measured' and when you read the article critically you'll notice there is no actual claim he did better. Still, I'd like to see what the public pollsters say about working off of voter lists instead of random digits. There doesn't seem to be much doubt that polling in New Jersey is more difficult than in some other states.

West Paterson loses out to Woodland Park by 29 votes

by: Jason Springer

Mon Nov 09, 2009 at 12:30:00 PM EST

Robert DeBlock, chairman of the Committee to Save West Paterson, congratulated the Committee to Keep Woodland Park on its campaign to keep the borough's name, which culminated Tuesday when residents rejected changing the borough's name back to West Paterson by a vote of 2,226 to 2,197 - a 29-vote margin. Those totals include polling numbers as well as mail-in ballots.

"If the numbers hold - and that remains to be seen - in my mind, this debate that has spanned three decades has come to a conclusion," DeBlock said during the meeting's public comment portion.

DeBlock said it was time for borough residents - who were divided over the name change - to unite and support the town name.

Nonetheless, borough resident Chris Laskowich said he planned to collect signatures for another petition to challenge the Woodland Park name.

"This isn't going away," he said.

Among the more costly items to change over will be police badges, though the total cost isn't clear yet, said Borough Administrator Kevin Galland. The badges were never changed to "Woodland Park" after last year's referendum.

The borough will continue to use envelopes with "West Paterson" in the address until they run out before ordering "Woodland Park" replacements. Name change or not, some borough infrastructure is scheduled for major maintenance, including the water tower emblazoned with "West Paterson," which hasn't been painted in 13 years.

Reflections on the Election

by: Senator Loretta Weinberg

Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 12:37:11 PM EST

Let's get the negatives out of the way first:   We lost!  Property taxes, unemployment, property taxes, property taxes.  That was it in a nutshell.

To some of my colleagues whose egos might be a little out of control:  Ray, was it really necessary to trash the Governor within 24 hours?  Perhaps if you had joined us just once on one of those 18 hour days on the campaign trail, we might have gotten a couple of more votes out of your home base.  Dick, did you have to share that White House anecdote?  We could have saved that one for "the book".  How about the party officials who couldn't join us for a very graceful concession.   And how about that Jeff Tittel?  He seemed to go out of his way to be mean and condescending.  The Sierra Club endorsement is one thing - your meaness of spirit another altogether.  Jeff, it's not ALWAYS about you!  

Now to some of the more positive recollections:  Our stars who were always there in full force.  Thank you to Assemblywomen Annette Quihano, Linda Stender, Grace Spencer, Milla Jassey, and Nellie Pou,  Senators Theresa Ruiz, Nia Gill,  and Mayor-elect of Camden Dana Redd and to Mayor Colleen Mahr of Fanwood,  Mayor Wilda Diaz of Perth Amboy, Mayor-Elect Toni Ricigliano of Edison (who must be related to half her constituents), the "WeDo" women of Passaic County, the Demo women's groups of Bergen County and of Essex County and so many more.  To our Congressmen Frank Pallone, Steve Rothman, Donald Payne and Bill Pascrell who joined us many times on the campaign trail.   Another "shout out" to our two Senators Lautenberg and Menendez.

Of course, our President Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton gave us so much of their time and insight.  I'll tell you in my next posting what he suggested to me to follow up.    Congresswomen Debbie Wasserman Shultz and Loretta Sanchez joined us on the campaign trail and made women elected officials very proud. Fran Adubato runs a great progam in Newark.  The labor community could not have done any more to help us.  Charlie Wowkanich, Laurel Brennan, Ray Pocini and the building trades and my personal favorite, Buzz Dressel, were fully involved.  The labor
bus with "the painter and insulator guys" was not a bad way to get around.

The campaign was energizing and I thank the Governor for giving me a wonderful opportunity to travel the great state of New Jersey, to meet many terrific NJ citizens, and for giving me a statewide voice to talk about the family values we share.  I wouldn't change a moment of it.....oh yes, except the losing part!

I have so many anecdotes to share and hope to do that over the next few weeks.  Jason Springer and Jay Lassiter along with those brave breast cancer survivors met me at the street fair rain and all.  So we used pink umbrellas and carried the hand-colored pink Corzine/Weinberg signs right up the street.  

The various Garden State Equality headquarters were always filled to the rafters and their members worked tirelessly.  DFA came through for the Governor and me with a resounding endorsement.  Rosi sent emails of encouragement.   That picnic in Willingboro where I met 92 year old Miss Lizzie who is still actively engaged in civic life and their wonderful Mayor Jackie Jenkins.   All those unairconditioned headquarters where folks worked in the heat of summer and never gave up.  THANK YOU.

My friend and colleague, Rocco Mazza, put more than 12,000 miles on his trusty car.  Rocco, the GPS and I traveled together for three months sometimes 14 or 18 hours a day.  The only thing I got tired of was the voice in the GPS!  My own campaign protectors Tory Singleton and Cecelia Fassano,  made me feel comfortable every step of the way.   Sometimes, there was a little too much "hovering" from the staff, but hey - it was great being part of an effort which had common goals.

Would I change anything?  Perhaps better communication on the really good things Jon Corzine did these last four years.  Perhaps one or two positive ads spelling these out a little more clearly.  But that's all hindsight.  I thank Governor Jon Corzine from all of us for working his heart out for New Jersey's residents.

Let's now join together with a newly installed Assembly, a newly organized Senate and figure out what the voices of our party should sound like; how we address the people's mistrust of their elected officials; how we make sure we have together taken a strong stand against corrupting influences in our body politic; and how we work with a Republican Governor on the things necessary to improve the lives of New Jersey residents.

Can Paterson Learn From The Secret Race to Replace Jon Corzine?

by: JRB

Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 12:33:56 PM EST

The White House wants David Paterson out of the running for New York's 2010 gubernatorial election. Paterson hopes they'll reconsider.

Because hey -- it worked for Jon Corzine.

In early August, David Axelrod and Patrick Gaspard met at a New York City hotel with Corzine's campaign staffers, asking whether or not the incumbent governor could actually win. Corzine's people assured them that he could. Obama's pollster became a top level adviser and it was settled. Corzine would remain the nominee.

This is patty-cake compared to what the White House did to Governor Paterson -- planting a story on the front page of a Sunday edition of the New York Times saying they wanted him gone.

Or so you would think.

2009 Exit Polls

by: Hopeful

Thu Nov 05, 2009 at 06:36:19 PM EST

According to the exit polls, Corzine led amongst female voters (50-45) , youth (57-36), blacks (88-9), and Hispanics/Latinos (65-32). He lost all the other groups. It might be worth noting that if you consider whites only, Christie led with both genders and all ages. Corzine led with voters making less than $75,000 (total family income), but that's only 53% of the electorate. The other piece of the Democratic electorate shows up in education, where Corzine won only the postgraduate group. He got 86% of Democrats but only 30% of independents in the final weighted analysis to Christie's 60%.  

Codey talks about conversations with the White House and Corzine ending his run

by: Jason Springer

Thu Nov 05, 2009 at 03:00:00 PM EST

Codey said he got a call from the White House a week after Vice President Joe Biden appeared at Corzine's poorly attended primary night kickoff rally in West Orange in June. "They wanted to talk about what's going on with the governor's race," he said. "They would call me every week, every two weeks."

By July, Codey said there was growing concern from the president's advisers as Corzine's polls declined even as he poured money into anti-Christie ads. It grew worse after 44 arrests on July 23 in a corruption and money-laundering case.

Corzine privately mused to the White House he was having second thoughts about continuing his campaign, Codey said.

"He was, mentally, as low as you can get," Codey said of Corzine, even before July 23. "Then this ... hit. It was understandable he was having a moment where he was saying 'to hell with this.'"

"I told Gaspard I was going to be seeing Mr. Corzine in Trenton. I told him I felt duty-bound in terms of being a gentleman to tell Corzine. I sat with Corzine. I told him what I knew. I said 'as a friend, I just wanted you to know.' I said 'bottom line is you're the decision-maker. You want out, just do me a favor let me know as soon as possible. If you're going to stay in there, I'm with you.'"

"I did not hear back from the White House."

Lesniak on Corzine: He was totally isolated by political reality

by: Jason Springer

Thu Nov 05, 2009 at 11:30:00 AM EST

"You just don't get the vote out at election time and be successful. It has to be a year-round communication, a year- round interaction," Lesniak said. "The governor turned his back on the political establishment that supported him throughout his political career. He was totally isolated by political reality and surrounded himself by people who were totally isolated by political reality."

Lesniak said there was a "bad tone" in the Corzine administration that carried through from the first days of the transition to the end.

DGA on the Election

by: Hopeful

Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:44:38 PM EST

The DGA felt it is fair to say Democrats have to demonstrate their commitment to saving jobs and improving the economy. I took to mean that the economy is number one issue, but also that a positive message is necessary. Perhaps I should have asked about this, because I can't say I heard such a message from Governor Jon Corzine's campaign.

I did ask about how they did with turnout. You'll recall that on October 26, the DGA explained their strategy to us, that their money was going to independent groups to run ads (for legal reasons) and to state and local party organizations to drive turnout. In the end, I understand $4 million went to the ads and over $1 million went to the parties. Daschle said he still believes "it was the right strategy" but that we didn't get the turnout Corzine needed to win.  

There are 37 races next year and three quarters of Americans will be facing the choice of their governor. Daschle openly was looking forward to using the unemployment numbers of Republican incumbents against them, just as the RGA and Chris Christie did to Jon Corzine. He emphasized that the unemployment numbers for three of the last four RGA chairs' states are worse than New Jersey and the national average. (Georgia's unemployment, for example, us over 10%). The DGA, it seems, looks forward to revenge, but it won't be here in New Jersey.

Christie's biggest challenge

by: Jason Springer

Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 11:00:00 AM EST

"His biggest challenge will be to get over with a Legislature that has already demonstrated it has no interest in working with any governor,"

Democrats a good bet to retain control of legislature

by: Scott Weingart

Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 11:54:17 PM EST

Christie's coattails didn't even reach down to State Assembly races.

What are you hearing?

by: Jason Springer

Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 04:51:02 PM EST

Republicans are excited about what they're seeing in Virginia and not very excited about seeing about New Jersey.

"AS of 3 p.m., there were 4,400 votes cast," said North Ward Councilman Anibal Ramos. "That's about 42-43% of what it was last year (When Barack Obama was at the top of the ticket), so we're considering that to be good turnout."

Election officials said today that turnout around the county was very good ... In fact, the county tallied about 9,600 absentee ballots compared to about 4.700 in the 2005 gubernatorial race. Of course, that could be a trifle misleading, given the fact that voting by absentee has become easier

Poisoning the Well

by: Jason Springer

Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 01:35:49 PM EST

The race for governor in New Jersey is so close in final polls that it may well end up in a recount -- the 1981 election did and was decided by less than 1,800 votes. If there is a recount, you can bet disputes about absentee ballots will loom large. Moreover, if serious allegations of fraud emerge, you can also expect less-than-vigorous investigation by the Obama Justice Department -- which showed just how seriously it takes such allegations when it walked away from an open-and-shut voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party in Philadelphia earlier this year.

Plenty of reasons exist for suspecting absentee fraud may play a significant role in tomorrow's Garden State contests. Groups associated with Acorn in neighboring Pennsylvania and New York appear to have moved into the state. An independent candidate for mayor in Camden has already leveled charges that voter fraud is occurring in his city. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party in New Jersey is taking advantage of a new loosely written vote-by-mail law to pressure county clerks not to vigorously use signature checks to evaluate the authenticity of absentee ballots, the only verification procedure allowed.

It's not surprising to see a huge increase in "absentee" ballots now. We have a new balloting law that makes it easier to vote from home. All of the campaigns have been focusing resources into letting people know that their voting options are increased and how to successfully vote that way. Both sides. You'd think Fund and the Wall Street Journal would be pleased with efforts to increase the civic engagement of fellow Americans.

If Christie wins, expect no howling of skullduggery in this race. If Corzine wins, well, they've already put their people on notice - with not one scrap of evidence - to say Corzine cheated.