Tag Archive: LD 38

Contested Assembly races

With the Assembly General Election only six weeks away on November 3, it’s time to give the candidates attention and lend them support. Some races will be strongly contested. Plus, a few more Democrats in the Assembly would be nice.

Don’t expect Gov. Christie to be much involved as he traditionally has lent little support to his Republican legislative colleagues, and he is busy on the hustings. In 2013 he won a landslide re-election, but Republicans didn’t gain a single seat. So much for his coattails. Now with his low NJ polling results some Republicans are distancing themselves from him. Democrats might want to tar Republicans with Christie’s failures, particularly in devastated Atlantic County and those beach areas where Sandy-afflicted people are still suffering. Nonetheless, these elections turn primarily on local issues.

The full Assembly and one Senate seat are up for elections, so low turnout could result in unexpected consequences. Thus all races matter.

So far the elections have received scant attention in the press and no public polling. Thus it’s difficult to detect what is trending. However, incumbents rule the day with challengers facing uphill battles.

Based on the June primaries and the 2013 General Elections (neither of which are strong predictors) and additional data there appear to be a few competitive races which are discussed below the fold. Also let us know your thoughts on the races.  

 

After the primary: races to watch

Yes, we know that in the competitive primary districts there were no surprises, and given the dynamics of these districts the balance between R’s and D’s is unlikely to change. However, there were a few omens in other races. The votes in the primary are not predictive of outcome in the general, but they may provide hints, favorable or unfavorable, about specific races.

Races that bear watching and would benefit from additional support:

LD 38: This was the only district where both D incumbents received less primary votes than the R challengers. In 2013 this was an incredibly close race.

LD 1: A split district where the R incumbent polled well, but the R challenger outpolled both the D incumbent and D challenger. This is a district which previously had two D incumbents and was closely contested in 2013.

LD 2: Another split district where the D incumbent got the most votes, and the D challenger slightly outpolled the R incumbent and R challenger. This was another close race in 2013.

To read the still unofficial results for all primary races go to the Division of Elections website.

Go below the fold to see the candidates and polling results for the above three races.