Tag Archive: Rasmussen

Rasmussen finds over 195% of Republicans will definitely vote

Rasmussen has a remarkable new poll out in which they report that Chris Christie would “definitely” get 30% of the Republican primary vote. 30% in a field of 18 candidates — sounds impressive. Sadly for Governor Christie, Republican voters have a lot of “definite” plans: Rasmussen tells us the top eight named candidates are going to get 195% of the vote, and there a few more “definite” votes lurking in the lower tier of candidates. Diebold programmers take note, you may be on overtime next year!  

The latest New Jersey polls

We have new New Jersey polls from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen. Between the two, Chris Christie does about the same as before, and I’d say so far he is holding onto the people that elected him.  

Rasmussen has Governor Christie at a solid 51% approval with 45% disapproval. Quinnipiac has him at 44-43%.  Right or wrong, Rasmussen is consistently about six points more Republican than other pollsters, so the better Rasmussen number is just what we should expect. Quinnipiac notes especially strong support (56%-29%) in the “Shore” region.

Quinnipiac surveyed “1,461 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.” Rasmussen’s sample is 500 “Likely Voters” (so +/-4.5% margin of error), and I’ve complained before that with no major election approaching this is strange. However, I should note that Nate Silver doesn’t quite agree:

The bottom line is this: the sample included in Rasmussen’s polling is increasingly out of balance with that observed by almost all other pollsters. This appears to create a substantial house effect, irrespective of whether Rasmussen subsequently applies a likely voter screen.

Quinnipiac has Senator Bob Menendez at 43% approval to 38% approval, “his highest disapproval ever.” On the other hand, Rasmussen surprisingly finds Menendez’s approval at 50%(!) and disapproval at 43%. Of course, Rasmussen buries the number in a release touting NJ likely voters as split 39-39 on recalling him. Combining the two Menendez seems to be where he usually is.

President Obama is at 50-46 according to Quinnipiac. These state polls don’t give us data on Adler, the guy actually in a 2010 battle, and unfortunately, I don’t see a generic Congressional ballot either. I recommend this post by Tom Jensen on the likelihood of Democrats staying home.

On issues, Rasmussen finds strong support for salary freezes at schools and capping property taxes. Quinnipiac finds the same thing with a slightly different question, even though they also find strong liking for teachers. On the other hand, Quiniipiac found an overwhelming majority (72%) are worried about state aid cuts increasing their property taxes. Furthermore, 61% say Christie should have signed the millionaires tax, which oddly enough Rasmussen didn’t ask about. A similar number oppose increasing their own property taxes to avoid cuts to schools.

Quinnipiac asked about the Supreme Court and Judge Wallace in various ways: More people disapprove of Christie’s actions than approve, but many don’t know about the issue.

Rasmussen polls New Jersey, too bad they use an imaginary electorate

Rutgers-Eagleton recently polled 953 New Jersey Adults including 845 Registered Voters. The results were that amongst adults, 48% support the new health care law and 40%, and amongst registered voters it was 47-41. This was an improvement on their previous poll.  

Now Rasmussen has released a poll of New Jersey — not of adults, or even registered voters, but of “500 likely voters.” Ramussens finds 51% support and 45% oppose repealing the law.

Why the difference? I’m looking right at the “likely voter” sample. In what election? We don’t even have a statewide election this year, and November is a half a year away anyway. Perhaps the “likely voters” are for a fictional recall election, where supposedly 38% would vote to recall Menendez and 34% would vote against it.  

I think it’s clear that this is a propaganda piece. I’ll be the first to say Rasmussen has an excellent record in predicting election in the final weeks, but right now they are plainly excluding Democrats from their samples, to advance their conservative views.  

Rasmussen Only Polls 2/3 of the Race

How do you leave Chris Daggett out of a poll in this race, at this point in the cycle?  – – promoted by Rosi

Rasmussen came out with a new poll that has Chris Christie at 47 percent, Corzine at 36 percent.  

A new Rasmussen Reports survey of voters in the Garden State finds Christie, a former federal prosecutor, on top 47% to 36%. Those figures reflect a decline of three points for Christie and a single point for Corzine over the past three weeks. Seven percent (7%) now prefer some other candidate, and eleven percent (11%) are not sure.

Amazingly the release doesn’t mention Chris Daggett, the independent candidate from Somerset who has polled as high as 10 percent in some polls.  I’m fairly sure that the poll didn’t mention it to the respondents either.

When Daggett is mentioned in other polls the results are significantly closer, whether the polls are done by Republicans (albeit Lonegan supporters) or Demcorats (albeit the Corzine campaign).  

Daggett is qualifying for public funds, is polling in double digits in some instances, significantly impacts polls when he is included, and yet Rasmussen and others don’t bother to mention him in the questions.

New Rasmussen poll – cautious optimism for Corzine?

A new poll by the republican leaning Rasmussen shows Governor Corzine cutting his deficit by nearly half over the past month, from a 13 point deficit to a 7 point deficit.  There are some good signs for Corzine in this poll, however, it remains to be seen if this is a turning of the tide as the campaign season kicks into gear.

Some interesting statistics to note (without comment):

  • This is the closest the Rasmussen poll has been since January, when it was a 2 point Christie lead;
  • The current poll shows a 46%-39% lead for Christie – this shows a 5 point increase for Corzine from March (but consistent over the past 3 months), and a dip for Christie to his lowest totals over the four poll/five month period (49% in March, 47% in May, 51% in June, 46% in July);
  • Over 40% of voters are still undecided or could change their minds.  However, Christie has a 16% lead among those who have already firmly decided;
  • Voters trust Christie over Corzine on taxes (55%-32%), government spending (54%-29%) and corruption (57%-28%).  

As I said above, I won’t comment on these numbers, but there are obvious things to draw from the message that Christie and Corzine are getting out to date.  It will be interesting to see what the next wave of polls show, since Corzine’s ad blitz has just begun – while Christie’s RGA ads have been blanketing the airwaves for weeks already.  The recent Pollster.com summary shows some tightening from newer polls, and we can probably expect a new Quinnipiac poll out within the next week or so.

Hopefully for Corzine, Christie’s unfavorables will continue to rise and now that the budget battle is behind him, this race could very well tighten to within the margin of error by late August.

Or, Christie can regain a double digit lead.

Much of this is in Corzine’s hands now.

Rasmussen NJ Poll: Obama 48%, McCain 40%

Rasmussen has just polled New Jersey again on the presidential race:

Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain 48% to 40% in New Jersey, up slightly from last month but identical to his lead in June, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. When “leaners” are included, Obama’s lead expands to 10 percentage points, 52% to 42%.

At the same time, New Jersey’s Democratic Senator Frank Lautenberg is opening a commanding lead in his bid for re-election.

Still, I’m sure this is still somehow good news for McCain. And Dick Zimmer, while we’re at it.

Poll: Lautenberg leads all Republican challengers

Rasumussen polling released today shows Senator Frank Lautenberg defeating any of the three leading Republican contenders: Anne Estabrook, Joe Pennacchio and Murray Sabrin.

Rasmussen, Feb 27, MoE +/-5%

Lautenberg: 44%

Estabrook:  34%

Lautenberg: 46%

Pennacchio: 38%

Lautenberg: 46%

Sabrin:     31%

Lautenberg’s favorability rating is 51%-39%. The three Republicans are still relatively unknown.

Poll: McCain defeats Obama, loses to Clinton in NJ

This is going to be a map-changing election. According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Hillary Clinton would defeat John McCain in New Jersey by 50%-39%, while Barack Obama would lose 43%-45%.

This is one of the few states where Clinton outperforms Obama in general election match-ups against McCain (Florida is another).

McCain does well in New Jersey by attracting solid support from GOP voters and also picking up the votes from 25% of Democrats.

Compared to other states, Obama has done little campaigning in New Jersey and almost none in Florida. Everywhere he’s spent considerable time, his numbers have tended to improve, so this doesn’t worry me too much (though that doesn’t mean New Jersey won’t be in play). But still, if this is an Obama-McCain race, I think we’ll see unusual coalitions and crossover voting that defies political conventional wisdom. All the more reason to invest in a 50 state (and 21 county) strategy.

Update: Note that this poll contradicts an earlier (Feb 21) Quinnipiac poll where Obama had a 7 point lead over McCain while Clinton led by 6:

Sen. Clinton beats McCain 47 – 41 percent, taking 80 percent of the Democratic vote and 52 percent of the women, while splitting independents. Obama wins 46 – 39 percent, bolstered by a 47 – 38 percent edge among independent voters, according to the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.

(Re-Updated) Lots of Polls

A soon to be released Rasmussen poll has Bob Menendez leading Tom Kean Jr by 49%-44%. This was a one day poll of 500 likely voters on Oct 28. The previous poll on Oct 25 had the two tied at 45%. The Research 2000 poll earlier this week had Menenedez with a similar 6 point lead, 48%-42%.

Update: Strategic Vision (R) has Menendez ahead by just 1 point, 43%-42%. The previous SV poll had Kean leading by 5 points.

Update 2: Rumor has it the Quinnipiac poll to be released Tuesday morning will have Menendez ahead by 5 points. Indeed, Menenedez is ahead 49%-44%.

Update 3: CNN’s poll gives Menendez a 7 point lead (51%-44%) among likely voters. (h/t to jrsydem)