Tag Archive: Quinnipiac

Interesting Numbers from Q-Poll on Marriage

UPDATE: Blue Jersey is hearing that S-1, the marriage equality bill, will go before the full Senate on February 13, with Senate Judiciary coming first this Tuesday.

Tuesday morning (event details) supporters of marriage equality (and some opponents) will show up at the NJ Statehouse as the Senate Judiciary Committee hears testimony on S-1, the marriage equality bill that leads off the NJ Senate calendar in the 215th Legislature.

If your work and family schedule allows you to be there – testimony starts 11am, but people will gather hours earlier to claim a seat – or better yet, if you can alter your schedule to make this a priority, our showing up in numbers would make impact on a Legislature which has had two years to move toward recognizing the call for equality from New Jerseyans both gay and straight, the failure of civil unions, and the march toward fair treatment of states all over the country. (Deciminyan has a handy guide to counter the arguments the other side uses).

New Jersey supports marriage equality. And that support comes from New Jerseyans both straight and gay.

The Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday shows that support among NJ voters at New Jersey voters support 52% for and just 42%.

A few interesting numbers stand out:

  • Democrats support ME 62-33%

  • Independents support ME 54-38%

  • Republicans oppose ME 59-35%
  • Both women (55-40%) and men (49-44%) would support a law allowing same-sex couples to marry

  • Same-sex marriage is not a threat to traditional marriage. Agree: 65 – 32%

  • Denying same-sex marriage is discrimination. Agree: 53-45%

    These are useful numbers for legislators considering supporting marriage equality in New Jersey, bringing us to parity with neighboring New York and Connecticut, not to mention Iowa, Massachusetts, D.C., New Hampshire, Vermont …

    There’s such a tremendous opportunity for New Jersey’s legislators – and New Jersey’s governor – to be heroes on this issue. Already, we’ve seen Senate President Steve Sweeney shift course from abstaining in 2010 to leading on this issue in 2012. Who will join him?

     

  • The latest New Jersey polls

    We have new New Jersey polls from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen. Between the two, Chris Christie does about the same as before, and I’d say so far he is holding onto the people that elected him.  

    Rasmussen has Governor Christie at a solid 51% approval with 45% disapproval. Quinnipiac has him at 44-43%.  Right or wrong, Rasmussen is consistently about six points more Republican than other pollsters, so the better Rasmussen number is just what we should expect. Quinnipiac notes especially strong support (56%-29%) in the “Shore” region.

    Quinnipiac surveyed “1,461 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.” Rasmussen’s sample is 500 “Likely Voters” (so +/-4.5% margin of error), and I’ve complained before that with no major election approaching this is strange. However, I should note that Nate Silver doesn’t quite agree:

    The bottom line is this: the sample included in Rasmussen’s polling is increasingly out of balance with that observed by almost all other pollsters. This appears to create a substantial house effect, irrespective of whether Rasmussen subsequently applies a likely voter screen.

    Quinnipiac has Senator Bob Menendez at 43% approval to 38% approval, “his highest disapproval ever.” On the other hand, Rasmussen surprisingly finds Menendez’s approval at 50%(!) and disapproval at 43%. Of course, Rasmussen buries the number in a release touting NJ likely voters as split 39-39 on recalling him. Combining the two Menendez seems to be where he usually is.

    President Obama is at 50-46 according to Quinnipiac. These state polls don’t give us data on Adler, the guy actually in a 2010 battle, and unfortunately, I don’t see a generic Congressional ballot either. I recommend this post by Tom Jensen on the likelihood of Democrats staying home.

    On issues, Rasmussen finds strong support for salary freezes at schools and capping property taxes. Quinnipiac finds the same thing with a slightly different question, even though they also find strong liking for teachers. On the other hand, Quiniipiac found an overwhelming majority (72%) are worried about state aid cuts increasing their property taxes. Furthermore, 61% say Christie should have signed the millionaires tax, which oddly enough Rasmussen didn’t ask about. A similar number oppose increasing their own property taxes to avoid cuts to schools.

    Quinnipiac asked about the Supreme Court and Judge Wallace in various ways: More people disapprove of Christie’s actions than approve, but many don’t know about the issue.

    Quinnipiac: For the first time, Corzine’s ahead

    A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Governor Jon Corzine pulling ahead of Republican Chris Christie as one of the most closely contested statewide races in recent history enters the final stretch.  The survey, conducted between October 20 – 26, pegs Corzine’s support among likely voters at 43%.  In contrast, for the first time this campaign, Christie trails the incumbent five points (38%), followed by independent candidate Chris Daggett’s relatively impressive 13%.

    The news should come as a shot in the arm to Democrats, who struggled all summer and fall to overcome what began as a double digit lead for Christie in the same poll.  As State Senate President Dick Codey (D-Essex) told a reporter last night, “In July, he was dead man walking. Now, he’s Lazarus.”

    Resurrected from the political graveyard or not, the news from Quinnipiac is not all good for Corzine, who continues to receive poor marks for his job performance.  Respondents disapprove 54%-39% of the job he’s doing as Governor, which on the bright side is his best showing in months.  Interestingly, support for the two major candidates is nearly a mirror image in their respective parties.  Corzine wins Democrats 79%-8% while Christie enjoys support of 79% to Corzine’s 7% among GOP likely voters.  In a campaign where the outcome may be determined by base voters, both will be looking to improve those numbers in the next few days.

    The race remains wide open.  In addition to Corzine’s upside down approval ratings, 5% of likely voters remain undecided, and perhaps more significantly, 38% of Daggett supporters say they are likely to change their mind and switch their support before Tuesday.  Quinnipiac Polling Director Maurice Carroll believes those numbers underscore just how fluid the race actually is.  He said, “Christopher Daggett changed it from ‘ABC’ – Anybody But Corzine – to a real three-way scrap. But a lot of Daggett’s voters say they might change their minds by Election Day. Where will they go?”

    While the answer to that question will have to wait until next Tuesday, Corzine’s negative ad campaign has paid dividends in the fight against Christie, who’s own unfavorable rating continues to increase at a rapid clip.  Respondents split 39-39% on whether the former U.S. Attorney is honest and trustworthy, his worst numbers since Quinnipiac began polling on the question,  As another polling report, this one from Rasmussen, noted yesterday, “About the only thing certain in New Jersey at the moment is that the next governor will be someone that is disliked by at least half the state.”

    With six days to go, Corzine’s campaign is hoping that the media blitz, visits from the Democratic A-List, and their traditionally superior GOTV operation will propel the embattled incumbent across the finish line come Election Day.

    From October 20 – 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,267 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.  

    Quinnipiac: Gov Race Narrowing

    The latest Quinnipiac University poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race indicates Governor Jon Corzine is closing the public opinion gap with Republican Chris Christie.  The survey of likely voters, conducted from September 23-28, has Christie leading Corzine 43-39% with independent Chris Daggett registering at 12%.

    While Corzine’s favorable ratings remain abysmal, the silver lining for Democrats may be that their full throttle criticism of Christie is paying off: the former U.S. Attorney’s negatives are the highest yet (38% approve – 38% disapprove).  Maurice Carroll, Qunnipiac’s polling director, attributes this movement to the “attack-attack-attack style of this rugged campaign.”

    Daggett’s relatively impressive showing can be attributed to dissatisfaction with both major party candidates.  The former Kean cabinet member is the only independent to qualify for matching funds and earn a spot in the forthcoming debates.  Since August, he has inched up 5% in Quinnipiac’s polling.

    Nonetheless, barring a meltdown of monumental proportions the election will come down to Jon Corzine and Chris Christie.  And today’s news confirms what many insiders have been saying all along: this horse race is far from over, and its outcome may be decided by the much vaunted Democratic G.O.T.V. operation’s ability to turn out the base voters critical to Corzine’s re-election.

    Quinnipiac: Perilous poll numbers or a way forward?

    Quinnipiac University released this morning its monthly poll of the New Jersey Governor’s race. Governor Jon Corzine continues to trail both Chris Christie and Steve Lonegan.  However, the lack of name recognition of both Republicans coupled with an increased awareness of their proposals and public statements could very well sway public opinion in Corzine’s favor.

    On the surface, the poll is not pretty for Corzine and New Jersey Democrats.  Corzine loses to Christie or Lonegan in head to head match ups.  The poll shows Christie pulling ahead of Lonegan (56%-33% compared to April’s 46-37), and Democrats will be discouraged to see that the former U.S. Attorney maintains a 45%-38% lead over Corzine.  Additionally, Corzine’s approval numbers are abysmal.  Only 38% of respondents approve of the job he is doing while 53% disapprove.

    Let’s set this aside and do as Frank Sinatra once recommended: take a walk down the sunny side of the street.

    Assuming Christie’s likely victory in the primary, 54% of poll respondents – including Republicans – do not know enough about him to make an informed decision.  The last few months have demonstrated that Christie’s record is vulnerable.  By raising issues such as pay to play and federal monitoring, not to mention his vague and intellectually dishonest tax and spending plan, Democrats can define Christie before he has a chance to define himself.

    Defining Christie should not be construed in a negative sense.  In the military, battlefield planners identify the best avenues of approach when facing an enemy.  Similarly, regardless of our present difficulties the coming political battle should be fought on avenues where the overwhelming number of New Jerseyans agree with Democrats.

    For example, a review of Christie’s positions on environmental protection reveal an attack point among Jersey Shore residents.  This group represents his strongest geographic base of support (Shore voters prefer Christie to Corzine by a margin of 57% – 25%).  Yet Christie has indicated that he will seek to restrict the oversight and safety measures that formed the foundation for the successful restoration of our state’s beaches and oceans.  He also wants a conservative state Supreme Court.  Refashioned in his ideological image, Christie justices would likely place the priorities of big business before the preservation of precious natural resources.  Highlighting these positions will not deliver Corzine a majority at the Jersey Shore.  However, they do have the potential to soften Christie’s support in what is shaping up to be the closest statewide contest since 1997.

    Today’s poll numbers may be disheartening to those who understand Governor Corzine is committed to developing responsible solutions to the myriad challenges facing New Jersey.  However, as the terrain of a battlefield shifts, so does that of a political campaign.  By identifying Christie’s weaknesses now and raising awareness about the consequences of his reckless agenda, Democrats can fight the general election campaign on our terms and quite possibly secure an avenue of approach that leads all the way to Drumthwackett.

    Quinnipiac Poll: Bush Hits Record Low 21%

    A Quinnipiac University poll released today finds that New Jersey voters disapprove of the job President Bush is doing by a 74%-21% margin. Even 43% of the state’s Republicans disapprove. The poll’s margin of error is only 2.5%. The previous Quinnipiac poll in April had a 70%-25% disapproval so at this rate I’ll be able to turn over the title of Mr. 17 in just a few months.

    Clay Richards, assistant director of the poll, noted “President Bush’s approval rating has hit an all time low of just 21 percent – lower than we’ve ever measured for a President in any state or national poll.”

    Quinnipiac also polled the Presidential preferences of Democrats and Republicans. Clinton and Giuliani still lead their respective parties. Sadly, they included imaginary candidate Al Gore, so the results are meaningless and not worth reporting. I hope in the future they provide a poll of candidates who are actually running.

    In matchups, Giuliani beats Clinton and Obama, while Clinton and Obama would defeat both McCain and Fred Thompson.

    News Round-up & Open Thread for Thursday, Oct 12

    36 years ago today, President Nixon announced another round of troop withdrawals from South Vietnam. Despite already losing the war, Bush bravely insists on keeping others’ sons and daughters in Iraq without a plan until they’re all killed, or until he leaves office – whichever comes first.

    And now back to your regularly scheduled news:

  • The latest Quinnipiac University poll has Menendez ahead 49%-45%, a 7 point swing since September when Kean Jr led 48%-45%. A Rasmussen poll will show Menendez ahead 44%-40%.
  • Not surprisingly, members of the Black Ministers Council endorsed Bob Menendez yesterday saying Kean Jr has offered nothing but unsubstantiated negative attacks. They also “voiced concern over Kean’s 2002 vote in Trenton opposing racial profiling legislation.” Kean Jr’s spokeswoman says he actually did vote for it in the Senate after he voted against it in the Assembly.
  • Hamilton mayor Glen Gilmore has donated more than $12,000 he received from John Lynch, who recently pleaded guilty to corruption. “Gilmore had originally declined to give up the money, but changed his mind this week.” Mercer County Republicans are calling the Mercer Democratics to return over $32,000 they’ve received from Lynch. Democrats say Republicans are hypocrites and should return $36,000 from Harry Parkin and others – all of whom pleaded or were found guilty as well.
  • There’s not much love for Sen Karcher’s bill to ban trans fats from restaurant food. Assemblyman Lou Manzo said “I just don’t like the taste of this bill.”
  • Third district legislators, Sen Stephen Sweeney and Assemblymen John Burzichelli and Doug Fisher, visited with students at Woodstown. One eighth grader said: “I never realized what they could actually do…It’s nice to finally be able to see how they can affect us on a daily basis.” Another added: “They made me really want to learn more about politics…They inspired me to maybe one day become a politician.”
  • Assemblyman Joe Roberts has proposed creating 21 “super” county school superintendents as a way to cut property taxes, but Assemblyman Senator Bob Smith wants to go a step further and create 21 “administrative” county school districts, where purchasing, HR, transportation and other work is consolidated, eliminating an estimated 600 local administrators and staffers.
  • Voters Agree: Kean Jr is a “George Bush Republican”

    According to a Quinnipiac poll released today, Senator Bob Menendez maintains a seven point lead over Tom Kean Jr, a slight increase from April. 17% of voters remain undecided. The poll has a MoE of +/-3%.

             6/06   4/06
    Menendez  43%  (40%)
    Kean Jr   36%  (34%)

    Democrats and Republicans support their party’s candidates by 74%-11% and 75%-12% respectively, and independents voters break 37%-35% for Menendez.

    At this stage, the voters aren’t buying Kean Jr’s message. By 41%-23%, voters disagree “with Kean’s claim that Menendez is an unethical party
    boss.” And there’s more bad news for Kean Jr: by 49%-24%, “voters agree with Menendez’ claim that Kean is a “George Bush Republican” who would support Bush Administration policies.”

    And that’s the crux of Kean Jr’s problems. Bush’s approval rating is an upside-down 28%-69% and New Jerseyan’s disapprove of his handling of Iraq by 68%-28%. By 62%-33%, we think going to war in Iraq was wrong. Meanwhile, Kid Kean digs his head in the sand and insists that it was the right move. Gotta appease the lunatic warmonger fringe of the party somehow, I guess. And by warmonger “fringe”, apparently that means almost all of them. Kean Jr and Bush Jr are perfect together. They are both on the wrong side of the most important issue facing the country right now, and that’s going to cost Kean Jr the election.