Tag Archive: poll

A nice lesson on poll accuracy

Rutgers-Eagleton has released an independent study of why their 2013 polls did so poorly. Basically, they correctly forecast that Christie and Booker would win by a lot but overestimated the margins by a huge amount. They had Christie at +36 but he “only” won by 22; Booker was at +22 and won by 10. I would have wrote it off to the problems of forecasting low-turnout elections, but I would have been wrong:

The Langer report identifies the primary reason for the inaccurate results as the failure to put the “head-to-head” questions, which asked respondents for their vote intention, at or near the beginning of the questionnaire. Because these questions were asked after a series of other questions, it appears that respondents were “primed” to think positively about Governor Chris Christie in the November survey, which then may have led Democrats and independents in particular to over-report their likelihood of voting for the Governor. A similar process occurred with the October Senate poll, where voters were first reminded of how little they knew about Lonegan and how much they liked Booker before being asked the vote question.

As the post makes clear, this was not done for a nefarious purpose but simply to continue a series of questions polled over the years. Ideally there would have been separate “horse race” and issue polls. It’s a good lesson in how difficult it is to poll fairly but a perfect example of public accountability. It’s too bad Rutgers-Eagleton doesn’t have a large budget because I view their polls as a important public service.  

Christie poll numbers plunge

It used to be that Chris Christie could count on job approval ratings of 50% or better. Even when polling respondents offered up traditionally “negative” adjectives to describe him, Christie could bask in the knowledge that New Jersey liked and trusted him, for the most part.  After Sandy, when he was suddenly everywhere, hugging people and talking the strength of his people, seemingly too concerned to sleep (or change out of the fleece), he looked unbeatable.

Now that 50% number reflects the percentage of people who think he was personally involved in the sudden GWB lane closures, and the 5 days of Fort Lee traffic chaos and disruption of first responder duties that followed.

Sixty-one percent think he’s not being honest about what happened.  

Christie poll numbers see 19-point drop, with unfavorable rating now nearly matching favorable

High marks for Christie, left over from enormous public good will for his post-Sandy performance and continuing through his landslide re-elections, may be evaporating as waves of scandals hit the governor and his close allies.

Via Rutgers Eagleton poll:

“Following more than a year of strong bipartisan support, Christie’s favorability rating is now 46 percent favorable to 43 percent unfavorable, down from 65 percent favorable just before his landslide re-election. This drop in support is led by a 26-point decline among Democrats.”

Wow. Christie’s 2016 hopes are pinned on the viability of his story of “bipartisan” support. A 26-point drop among Dems makes it hard to sell that right now. Anywhere. And particularly with Christie’s multi-troubles leading the news night after night, with no end in sight. And there’s this:

“Whether or not they think Christie is telling the truth, New Jerseyans overwhelmingly blame Christie’s “tough-guy” persona for the conduct of his staff: more than 70 percent say the Governor’s attitude contributed at least somewhat to his staff’s reported behavior.  Even six in ten Republicans believe Christie’s demeanor has at least somewhat encouraged these events.”

And this has always been the risk of Christie’s massive, skilled (and largely taxpayer-funded) propaganda machine that has helped launch the public perception of him as ultra-confident, direct political-celebrity. The risk? That the real guy beneath the skilled branding would go too far, do too much damage. Or be found out.

Polls are just snapshots of the public mood in a brief span of time. We’ll have to see if this trend continues.

PPP Survey Says Runyan Approval Under Water

This is diary rescue from the weekend. DCCC has been targeting Runyan, whose obvious unpreparedness for federal office and his votes since make him a big target. Looks like his failures are catching up with him in-district. Promoted by Rosi.

New Jersey Democrats are pretty used to being ignored by folks who do polls.  While states and Congressional districts around the country get checked to see what’s possible, New Jersey gets a internal campaign once in a while but not much more than that.

But Public Policy Polling has changed that with two (count ’em, 2!) Congressional district polls a whole year out from the election.  I’m positively giddy, so am using parentheses and italics.

Jon Runyan (PDF) in NJ3 is underwater with 40 percent disapproval, 39 percent approval for a net -1 rating.  52 percent are of voters in NJ3 less likely to vote for him knowing he voted to shut down the government, which moves Runyan to a 2 point deficit over a generic Democrat.

Frank LoBiondo (PDF) in NJ3 is better in NJ2 with 44 percent approval and 37 percent disapproval for a net +7 rating. 46 percent of voters in NJ2 are less likely to vote for him knowing he voted to shut down the government, which moves LoBiondo to just a 2 lead over a generic Democrat.

Could we please, please, please, please get come high-quality opponents?

And maybe some polls in other districts, PPP?

BTW, there’s LOTS more info in the cross-tabs, so if you’re in NJ2 or NJ3 you can learn a lot.  Have fun on a Sunday!

Poll: Congressional Republicans are losing the hearts & minds of Americans

This isn’t strictly New Jersey, except as vmars’ post below makes clear,the federal government shutdown perpetrated by (some of) our elected reps in Congress is all kinds of mess.

So, I had to flag this poll for you, just out from the Washington Post/ABC News poll:

Poll: approval of Congress

Hallelujah, the Republicans – and particularly its minority Tea Party faction – are losing the hearts and minds of America. And that’s despite the efforts of people like Chris Christie to somehow equalize out the blame to both parties (though Christie, ever self-promoting, has proposed himself as the solution).

I think this is key, particularly since it becomes ever more obvious that Republicans in Congress are driven by their radical fringe, who claim ultra-patriotism even as they gloss right over key tenets of America like majority rules (have you seen TIME Magazine’s cover photo?) and why playing chicken with default deadlines is a bad idea. And be clear: GOP Senate candidate Steve Lonegan is PRO-shutdown.

Disapproval of how congressional Republicans have handled this budget dispute (read: deep fear that ACA will be a success) has shot up to 70%, up from 63% about a week earlier. But there’s strong indication that the GOP tantruming baby’s dirty diaper stinks things up for everybody within smelling distance. Approval of President Obama’s response is climbing, but so are his disapproval numbers – moreso (with 39% approving strongly). And 61% now disapprove of congressional Dems (up from 56%) with strong disapproval up to 45%.  

Meanwhile approval of Pres. Obama’s response is climbing (Congressional Dems don’t get off easy either, though, proof that the GOP tantruming baby’s diaper stinks it up for everybody nearby;  

Kean University poll: Christie by 18, Booker by 19

Gov. Chris Christie leads Democrat Barbara Buono 52 to 34, according to the new Kean University poll.  The 18 point margin is the closest of any poll to date and well below the 34 and 28 point margins predicted yesterday by Quinnipiac and Stockton respectively.

On the Senate side, Newark Mayor Cory Booker leads Republican Steve Lonegan by a 19 point margin, 52 percent to 33 percent.  That margin falls right in between the 12 point margin predicted yesterday by a Quinnipiac poll and the 26 point margin outlined Monday in a Stockton poll.

. . . .

Other findings from the poll include:

■74 percent of respondents said they would vote in favor of a ballot question that would raise the state’s minimum wage from $7.25 an hour to $8.25 an hour.

■47 percent said that if Christie decides to run for president in 2016, he should resign as governor (if he wins re-election in November).

■55 percent said they would support gay marriage if it were on the ballot (Governor Christie has suggested he favors leaving gay marriage to the electorate.)

■49 percent oppose the legalization of pot for recreational use in New Jersey.

■72 percent said that shore property owners should be forced to accept the construction of dunes designed to protect the coastline from future storms.


Every Saturday starting 9/14 – Join NJ Workers’ Voices voter outreach to raise the minimum wage

After almost four years of New Jersey life under Chris Christie, who excels at self-promotion (at taxpayer expense) but fails at economic recovery, whose priorities have protected NJ’s wealthiest at the expense of its more vulnerable, and after listening to him scapegoat the workers who serve us for his own failings, there are signs New Jersey’s had enough.

One of those signs is the rise of NJ Workers’ Voices, a state PAC and locus of organizing that aims to combine a progressive spectrum of people –  public and private sector workers, first responders, teachers, construction workers, nurses, faith leaders, small business owners and local leaders – focused on the ballot initiative to raise the NJ minimum wage from $7.25 to $8.25. If we do that, we’re on the way to stimulating NJ’s economy (say better economic minds than Christie’s), and providing a better life for nearly a quarter-million of us working at that wage in this expensive state. And their kids.

NJ Workers’ Voices is planning two canvasses to raise awareness for Ballot Question 2 (read on p. 5), both on the same day:

Saturday, September 14 (and every Saturday till Nov. 5):

Meet at 8:30am

North: 88-94 Boylan Street in Newark

South: 26 High Street in Mount Holly

RSVP/more info: Ramon Becerra (NJ Workers’ Voices Field Director) rbecerra@njworkersvoices.org or at 312-330-2040.

This group looks very well-run to me. And their ground game is just beginning. New Jerseyans overwhelmingly support that buck increase. But to get it done, we have to make sure people get to the polls and vote that way. There are doors to be knocked and people to call, and a better life to create for hundreds of thousands of people – and their kids – who work hard for very, very little.  

Syria Poll

Your senator, Bob Menendez, is chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He’s on record calling for missile strikes, fast. Is he right? Promoted by Rosi.

What do you think we should do, Blue Jersey?

Swarm this poll: Who needs a fundraising email from Gov. Martin O’Malley? We do.

I’m going to suggest you take a sec and tell Gov. Martin O’Malley to send a fundraising email for Barbara Buono. Read on. Or just do it now.

For a while I kept a count of how many emails I got from the DGA – the Democratic Governors Association – about GOP Virginia Gov candidate Ken Cuccinelli, who never met a uterus he didn’t think he could order around vs. emails about Chris Christie, whose crazy is considerably better harnessed. And far more dangerous, given that it’s Christie and not Cucinnelli who wants the White House and has people ready to write the fat checks to propel him there.

I gave up keeping count, and being annoyed that my emails to DGA went unanswered. I have enough stress. But now, here’s a thing. Now, they’re asking. Well, Gov. Martin O’Malley is. O’Malley, the hotshot Maryland governor who was sharply critical of Christie when he was DGA chair (he’s now Finance Chair) is circulating a poll asking which of 3 Gov races he should shoot out a fundraising email for.

The choices?

Virginia – for Terry McAuliffe, running against the aforementioned Cuccinelli, whose detractors call him “The Cooch” and he totally deserves that. Compares a woman’s right to choose to slavery, hates immigration reform, and didn’t want to sign a letter asking Congress to reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act.

Maryland – O’Malley’s home state, where his LG Anthony Brown is looking to follow in O’Malley’s top-grade shoes.

And New Jersey, where Barbara Buono is running against Chris Christie. I know I don’t have to make the case to you why O’Malley’s fundraiser email should be for Buono. Screw Virginia. Screw Maryland. Not really.

Just Vote for New Jersey.

Blue Jersey Weekly Poll: US Senate Primary

UPDATE: We had a little tech glitch in this poll, and it’s possible Speaker Sheila Oliver lost votes during the reset. If you voted for her, and think your vote wasn’t counted, please vote again – Rosi

Each week on Wednesday until the primary on August 16 we’ll put up a poll for the US Senate special election, and report on the changes from week to week.

Of course, it’s not scientific but it’s fun, so be sure to vote every week!