Tag Archive: poll

Zogby/WSJ Poll: It’s a Tie

The latest Zogby/WSJ poll now shows the Senate race tied with Menendez at 40.4% and Kean Jr at 40.2%. Earlier Zogby polls showed Menendez with a slight lead, though all within the poll’s margin of error. This is the third poll showing the race tightening.

I wouldn’t trust the poll numbers, but the trend seems right. This same poll has James Webb leading George Allen by 8 points in VA, but other polls show Allen ahead.

Bush Hits a New Low in NJ

An FDU/Public Mind poll released today finds that just 24% of New Jerseyans think the country is moving in the right direction, while 65% think it’s on the wrong track, an all-time low. Only 29% rate Bush as doing an “Excellent” or “Good” job while 71% say he’s doing “Only Fair” or “Poor” – also a new record. Only 33% still cling to the absurd fantasy that going to war with Iraq was the right course, while 59% disagree. Bush’s dive into oblivion shows no signs of reversing:

Corzine Not To Blame

The latest polling from Quinnipiac Polling Institute makes it official: Jon Corzine is not going to get hammered for the recent government shutdown.

Corzine showed a 44-43% approval rating, making it the first time since March that he’s had a positive approval rating.  It’s a five-point increase in approval since last month and one of the highest approval marks he’s had since he took office.

By a three-to-one margin, New Jerseyans saw the Legislature as being the cause of the shutdown.  Sorry, Joe Roberts.  That may mean that all the doom and gloom predictions of your demise could become self-fulfilling.  By not passing any budget at all, the Assembly showed that it really wasn’t doing anything – and it shows in the rock-bottom 20% approval rating for the Legislature as a whole.  That’s a continual down-trend, showing a 14% drop since the first of the year.

Junior Out of Touch on Immigration

Where's JuniorTom Kean Jr has made a lot of noise on immigration, adopting an extreme position to the right of Bush. He opposes a path to citizenship even for those who have been living and paying taxes here for years:

Kean accused Menendez of being misguided in his willingness to give amnesty to illegal immigrants and said he would not reward lawbreakers with citizenship.

If he was banking on this hardline stance as his ticket to rallying his base and wedging the vote, he might want to reconsider.

A Rutgers-Eagleton poll released today found that 65% of New Jersey adults believe that “illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years ought to be allowed to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status.” Even within his own party, 62% support a path to legal status.

“My position has been clear and consistent,” Kean said. “I don’t think we should reward illegal behavior.”

Clearly and consistently out of touch with the people of New Jersey – including those of his party. Anyone who considers two thirds of the state to be misguided is going to have a tough time getting their votes.

For some great irony, flashback to May 25, when the Kean Jr campaign wrote a post titled Menendez: Wrong for New Jersey on Immigration, and said this about Bob Menendez’s stances on immigration:

At every step of this debate Menendez has been way out of the mainstream, and he’ll have a tough time explaining these votes to the people of New Jersey.

In Tom Kean Jr World, every day is opposite day. If it weren’t, his campaign staff would have a tough time explaining why they shouldn’t be fired.

With Junior this far out of the mainstream, we have to ask where he is that he thinks he represents us?

Menendez with the Momentum

In the latest Rasmussen poll, Menendez surged by 9 points compared to last month, while Kean Jr’s support remained the same. Most of that support seems to have come from shoring up his base:

With the early-June primary under his belt, Menendez enjoys stronger support now from fellow Democrats, attracting 77%—as opposed to the 59% he got in our previous poll.

Rasmussen. 6/21. Likely voters. MoE 4.5%

Senate (5/26 results)

Menendez (D) 46 (37)
Kean, Jr (D) 40 (40)

Poll: NJ Supports Legalizing Gay Marriage

New Jersey adults support legalizing gay marriage by a margin of 50%-44% according to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll released today. That’s a reversal from September, 2003 when only 43% were in favor of gay marriage while 50% were opposed. By more than a 2-1 margin (65%-30%), voters support legalized civil unions.

As the poll authors note, the methodology used biased the poll responses. Support for gay marriage varied depending on the order in which the questions were asked. Some were asked about civil unions first and others about gay marriage. Those who were first asked about civil unions were also told that “there was a way other than marriage that could give gay and lesbian relationships legal recognition.” This clearly biased the results, as respondents were evenly split in their support of gay marriage (48%-47%).

Those who were asked about their support for gay marriage first supported it by a much larger margin: 53%-40%. These numbers agree well with a previous poll conducted by Zogby which found support for gay marriage to be 56%-39%.

Update: Steven Goldstein, chair of Garden State Equality, says that this poll just reaffirms what other polls have found:

“Today’s poll is the death knell for the right-wing’s political arguments against marriage equality in the State of New Jersey…Poll after poll after poll in New Jersey, no matter who conducts them or who commissions them, all say the same thing: New Jersey wants gay couples to have the freedom to marry.”

The NJ Supreme Court could issue their ruling on the legality of same-sex marriage any day. The AP notes that many believe the court will rule in favor of plaintiffs:

Many legal scholars and political insiders expect the court will find that same-sex couples do have a constitutional right to marry in the state.

Updated: Senate Race Remains Close

First, a Strategic Vision (R) poll shows Menendez with a slight lead over Tom Kean, Jr of 38%-36%. Last month, the same poll had both candidates tied at 35%.

A Zogby/WSJ poll shows a similarly tight race with Menendez ahead by just one point: 41%-40%. The trend shows Menendez picking up support every month while Kean Jr support level remains flat.

Update: We have another one. A Rutgers-Eagleton poll has Menendez leading Kean Jr 42% to 38. In March, his lead was 40% to 35%. The really bad news for Kean Jr is that 50% of New Jersey voters associate Kean Jr with George Bush’s policies either “very” much or “somewhat”. That’s up from 43% in March. The really, really bad news is that by a 2-1 margin, voters disapprove of Bush (31%-62%):

“The increasing association of Kean with Bush and a low Bush approval rating could be a fatal combination for Kean,” said Murray Edelman, distinguished scholar at the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling.

Oh, and 68% of voters consider the candidate’s positions on the war in Iraq to be an “extremely important” issue, more than any other issue.

News Round-up for Thursday, June 15

  • New Quinnipiac poll released this morning: Senator Robert Menendez is leading Tom Kean JUNIOR 43-36%, up from 40-34% in the last Quinnipiac poll done in April. Senator Lautenberg has a 44% approval rate in the poll; Bush, 28% approve while 69% disapprove.
  • The Federal Government yesterday filed lawsuits against Attorney General Zulima Farber and other state officials to stop legal procedings aimed at getting Verizon, AT&T and other telephone companies to reveal the extent of their compliance with the NSA’s request for phone records without a court order. Farber issued subpeonas to the phone carriers in May; the deadline to respond is today.
  • Gov. Corzine campaigned on the creation of an elected state comptroller; now, he says he’d agree to an independent, appointed one. An elected official would require a constitutional ammendment, but an appointed position may not and therefore be easier to achieve.
  • At an AFL-CIO convention in Atlantic City yesterday, Corzine said he’d reject State Senator Steve Sweeney’s call for $700 million in pay and benefit cuts by state workers. The Senator proposed the cuts as a means to avoid the increase in sales tax. Sweeney is an official with an ironworkers union; building and trade unions have defended his proposal.
  • The Governor is optimistic that his budget will be passed by the end of the month, largely intact. (Well, I’m glad he’s optimistic, but I’ll wait and see what really happens.)
  • A report released yesterday by the Association for Children of New Jersey shows that child welfare system in Our Fair State has had “some progress” in protecting children but “still has a long way to go.” Any progress in improving our system is a good thing. Unfortunately, there has been no increase in foster homes, despite recruiting drives.
  • The Department of Corrections will once again allow prisoners to be interviewed by news media. Interview requests were reviewed on a case-by-case basis until a decision five months ago to cease interviews; the Department plans to return to this policy.
  • A national sweep of illegal immigrant gang members, violent criminals and fugitives has netted more than 60 suspects in New Jersey. Many will be deported but some will face criminal charges.
  • I keep wondering when they’ll fix that obnoxious pothole right in front of my home; unfortunately, it might not be anytime soon. Asphalt prices are up substantially, and the DOT as well as local and county governments are re-evaluating road repair and construction projects in face of rising costs.