Tag Archive: Rick Perry

So What’s The Upshot? Predictions Thread

OK, Christie is out, in what felt like a six week presser.  So what’s the impact of this on the GOP Presidential nomination race?  Some ideas below, but looking for your ideas in the comments.  Have at it!

1) Christie endorses Romney, and it’s all over for the others.  Just to note, Romney leads national polls again (with Cain in second place!) and Perry is dying a slow death Christie decided to avoid, so why not get on the bandwagon quickly like he did in 1999 with Bush?  Since there are a lot of donors out there urging Christie to get in, their money has to go somewhere, and with Perry collapsing and Christie out Romney looks to gain.

2) With no bombastic screamer in the race (at least not to GOP levels now that Bachmann can’t get on TV), Sarah Palin could decide to jump in just for shits and giggles.  Suddenly the Tea Partiers who were holding their noses in support of Romney turn to Palin, and Romney’s numbers cater.  Now it is wide open again giving anyone a chance.  Of course, as a result of this there’s a Draft Christie movement again and we have to go through all this crap again.

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3) Palin gets in, caters Romney with her attacks, and suddenly Ron Paul looks like a rational maverick.  Paul is up in the double digits now, and has been slowly growing his support.  He loses Iowa, but wins in good ol’ libertarian New Hampshire and suddenly everything is up for grabs.  No one has the nomination sown up by convention time, so Christie is drafted to run.

No matter how you look at this (even if Chrisite gets in) it’s fricking terrifying.

What’s Your Excuse for Chris Christie?

Chris ChristieIf lip-reading Rick Perry is getting old, and looking at Crazy-Eyes Michele Bachmann is no less alarming than reading what Crazy-Eyes Michele Bachmann actually says, and you’re tired of watching the national press fall for Chris Christie’s shy-virgin act, here’s something you probably know better about than they – or anybody else in the national political press do – the excuses Christie could make for jumping into the 2012 presidential race.

Here are 9 Christie excuses via Huffington Post comedy. Can you top them?

1.  Watched Independence Day for first time. So wanted to be Bill Pullman in that movie.

2.  Finally learned Excel. Now I’m ready.

3.  I just realized the President of the United States doesn’t have to live in New Jersey.

4.  After Herman Cain won the straw poll in Florida, I figured ANYONE can do it.

5.  It’s the only way to find out who would play me on ‘SNL’.

6.  I was trying to wait until this season of ‘Jersey Shore’ ended, but what the hell.

7.  Hoping a failed run for president will finally get me on ‘Dancing With the Stars.’

8.  Have heard amazing things about the White House chef.

9.  Woke up today and realized ‘I’m fucking Chris Christie.’

Okay, Blue Jersey – What are your excuses Chris Christie could use to rationalize a 2012 run?

45,000 Votes

On June 3, 2009, Chris Christie defeated Steve Lonegan in the Republican gubernatorial primary election with 184,085 votes to Lonegan’s 140,946 votes.  On this same day, Jon Corzine, who ran for re-election virtually unopposed (yes, there were other Democrats on the ballot, but none represented a credible primary challenge) received 154,448 votes.

I think that it is reasonable to argue that most, if not all, of the 150K+ voters who went to the polls on this day to vote for Jon Corzine wanted him to win re-election in November as well.  If I am right about this, then I think that it is also reasonable to argue that these voters would have improved the chances of achieving their desired outcome if they had cast their votes for Steve Lonegan and not Jon Corzine.

Regardless of how unpopular Corzine might have been at the time, Christie won in 2009, because he did well with independent voters.  I defy anyone to argue that a far-right-wing gadfly like Lonegan would have performed nearly as well with these voters.  While it is conceivable that many more independents would have voted for the independent candidate, Chris Daggett in November if Lonegan would have been the GOP nominee, I do not believe that he would have received enough votes to win or tip the election to Lonegan.

So if you accept my premise that 45,000 Democratic votes for Lonegan instead of Corzine in June 2009 would have done more to help Corzine win in November 2009, please continue to below the fold so that we can talk more about what this premise could and should mean for progressive activism in the future.

Red Jersey

Is New Jersey becoming (or is it already) a red state?

New Jersey is regarded as a solidly blue state. Even when under a GOP Governor like Christie Whitman, those Republican chief executives have been categorized as “moderate”. But with the disappearance of moderate Republicanism and the election of Chris Christie, is New Jersey still as reliably blue as its reputation is?