CQPolitics columnist Bill Pascoe knows something about losing statewide elections in New Jersey. The "mastermind" behind the failed campaigns of Bret Schundler and Doug Forrester, Pascoe thinks it's too soon for Republicans to pop the bubbly in anticipation of their return to Drumthwackett. He notes that while Chris Christie continues to lead Governor Jon Corzine (46%-40%) in public polling, the results of this week's Quinnipiac survey shows a tightening of the race rather than an adherence to the GOP's hoped for storyline:
That's a significant movement from the July 14 survey, which showed Christie leading Corzine by 47 percent to 38 percent, with Daggett at 8 percent.
"Significant movement" when it's just a 3 point difference? Yes, it's significant, when 3 points is the difference between a 9-point lead and a 6-point lead. In that difference, the 3 points represents a 33 percent cut -- so Corzine's team can say, "We've cut Christie's lead by a third."
Plus, in a poll where the margin of error is plus or minus 2.9 percent, that 6-point lead begins to look even smaller -- because it might just be a 3-point lead, and there's still 12 weeks to go.
Pascoe notes that while Corzine has only begun the air war against Christie, the Republican standard bearer's negative rating among likely voters is increasing rapidly. Compliment that trend with the Corzine campaign's latest reshuffle and Pascoe thinks this race is far from over.
"Christie might as well propose a law requiring the rivers to run with whiskey and the mountains to be made of ice cream."
- Star Ledger columnist Paul Mulshine, commenting on the absurdity of Chris Christie's tax and spending proposals.
If politics is theater, than the 2009 Republican gubernatorial primary was akin to a Tony Award winning show on Broadway. Since the silly season accelerated last February with Chris Christie's formal entrance into the race, several moments stick out as worthy of inclusion on a list of the Top Ten Moments in the 2009 GOP Primary.
Click on the headline to read the list, and feel free to offer favorite moments of your own.
UPDATE: Okay, I'm taking down the live stream link. It's off-air, has been for a while, won't get back up again and it's slowing things down for anybody participating in the open thread and trying to refresh for new comments. See comments for why - Rosi
It's primary election night and by the end of the evening, we will officially have the General Election matchups for Governor along with all seats in the Assembly and many local offices. The Governor stopped by to give a personal thank you yesterday before tonight's campaign kickoff.
You can watch along with NJN's live coverage through their stream. What are you doing this election night? Join us to discuss the night's results and look forward to the upcoming election campaigns. Share your thoughts in this election night open thread.
Yesterday's Herald News Tribune editorial "Guv's latest budget grabs put hurt again on middle class" is another example of how New Jersey media outlets continue to get it wrong when it comes to Governor Jon Corzine's success in managing revenue shortfalls while simultaneously reducing the size of state government. Reading more like a Chris Christie press release than the fact based analysis one expects from a widely read newspaper, the editors' thesis is that Corzine has yet to pursue a "steady, aggressive reduction in the size of government, from its number of workers, to nose-bleed salaries, to overly generous health and retirement benefits, to departmental waste."
Intentional or not, the editorial is misleading. Governor Corzine has reduced the size and cost of government, has rooted out waste, and he continues to develop responsible solutions to New Jersey's present fiscal crisis.
The Herald News Tribune criticizes Corzine for striking:
... again at beleaguered property taxpayers and those he classifies as New Jersey's "wealthy," a definition of well-off that gets smaller every time Trenton's bureaucrats need some extra cash, which is pretty much all of the time.
Let's be frank. No one enjoys paying taxes. Yet New Jersey finds itself in the midst of a perfect storm. Not only is revenue collection down due to the economic recession, but two decades of irresponsible borrowing and reckless raids on so-called dedicated funds (e.g., the Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund) have placed demands on state coffers at a time when they could not be more empty. Upon taking office, Corzine reversed these unsustainable practices and has invested more in dedicated funds such as the state worker's pension program than any New Jersey Governor since Brendan Byrne.
No one wanted to cut the Homestead Rebate Program, and that is evident from Corzine's public statements and recent efforts to preserve this important benefit. But he's faced reality. Something his opponents, and the editors, fail to do. The editorial continues:
Meantime, Corzine wants to once again raise income taxes on households earning more than New Jersey's average, this time on those that take in more than $400,000 a year ... It's one among many reasons some of New Jersey's high-flying performers, from doctors to bankers to successful entrepreneurs, are fleeing the state as fast as they can.
Funny. A study released by Princeton University's Policy Research Institute, "Trends in New Jersey Migration: Housing, Employment, and Taxation," debunked the myth of the flight of the wealthy. According to the paper's findings, the 2004 tax on millionaires had a small effect on migration in and out of the state (67 out of 44,000).
One expects Chris Christie to run roughshod over the facts, but professional journalists? The editorial continues:
... nowhere does the governor really call on government to sacrifice. Sound familiar? Absolutely, sadly enough.
Governor Corzine has reduced the size of the state payroll by over 4,000 workers and the current FY 2009 budget reduced the cost of state government by $300 million. Moreover, he has made tough decisions on funding and presented budgets that, for the first time in New Jersey history, resulted in two consecutive years of reduced state spending.
That's right. The first time in state history. And he's about to do it again.
The proposed numbers for FY 2010 pare down spending to 2006 levels, an achievement that reflects both stark economic realities and Corzine's determination to reform government so that it lives within its means. Rather than panning his policies as shades of McGreevey, editorial writers should be commending a record of fiscal responsibility - indicative of Governor Corzine's budget priorities - that none of his predecessors can match.
Confronted with a national recession and an inheritance of reckless fiscal policies, Corzine has a demonstrable record of success on budget issues. The mainstream media should quit reciting Chris Christie talking points, examine the record, and demand that candidates from both parties answer the hard question of how they intend to right New Jersey's fiscal ship, ease the burden on taxpayers, and set state finances on the path to long term stability.
Of course, the ad tells you to call Christie, not vote against him, because it is an "issue" ad by an independent group, not an ad by Corzine. PolitickerNJ has a good account of the group and its major ad buy:
The Mid-Atlantic Leadership Fund, a Washington-based organization with ties to Democrats, has purchased about $900,000 worth of New York and Philadelphia TV ads attacking GOP gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie. According to filings with the Internal Revenue Service, the political organization, which will not need to disclose their donors until July, is run by Sean Sinclair, a Democratic strategist who ran Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's 2004 re-election campaign.
This kind of ad is very familiar in New Jersey politics. What do you think of it?
Quinnipiac University released this morning its monthly poll of the New Jersey Governor's race. Governor Jon Corzine continues to trail both Chris Christie and Steve Lonegan. However, the lack of name recognition of both Republicans coupled with an increased awareness of their proposals and public statements could very well sway public opinion in Corzine's favor.
On the surface, the poll is not pretty for Corzine and New Jersey Democrats. Corzine loses to Christie or Lonegan in head to head match ups. The poll shows Christie pulling ahead of Lonegan (56%-33% compared to April's 46-37), and Democrats will be discouraged to see that the former U.S. Attorney maintains a 45%-38% lead over Corzine. Additionally, Corzine's approval numbers are abysmal. Only 38% of respondents approve of the job he is doing while 53% disapprove.
Let's set this aside and do as Frank Sinatra once recommended: take a walk down the sunny side of the street.
Assuming Christie's likely victory in the primary, 54% of poll respondents - including Republicans - do not know enough about him to make an informed decision. The last few months have demonstrated that Christie's record is vulnerable. By raising issues such as pay to play and federal monitoring, not to mention his vague and intellectually dishonest tax and spending plan, Democrats can define Christie before he has a chance to define himself.
Defining Christie should not be construed in a negative sense. In the military, battlefield planners identify the best avenues of approach when facing an enemy. Similarly, regardless of our present difficulties the coming political battle should be fought on avenues where the overwhelming number of New Jerseyans agree with Democrats.
For example, a review of Christie's positions on environmental protection reveal an attack point among Jersey Shore residents. This group represents his strongest geographic base of support (Shore voters prefer Christie to Corzine by a margin of 57% - 25%). Yet Christie has indicated that he will seek to restrict the oversight and safety measures that formed the foundation for the successful restoration of our state's beaches and oceans. He also wants a conservative state Supreme Court. Refashioned in his ideological image, Christie justices would likely place the priorities of big business before the preservation of precious natural resources. Highlighting these positions will not deliver Corzine a majority at the Jersey Shore. However, they do have the potential to soften Christie's support in what is shaping up to be the closest statewide contest since 1997.
Today's poll numbers may be disheartening to those who understand Governor Corzine is committed to developing responsible solutions to the myriad challenges facing New Jersey. However, as the terrain of a battlefield shifts, so does that of a political campaign. By identifying Christie's weaknesses now and raising awareness about the consequences of his reckless agenda, Democrats can fight the general election campaign on our terms and quite possibly secure an avenue of approach that leads all the way to Drumthwackett.
Hey, the Corzine 09 campaign is looking for new media interns and volunteers. And that might be you.
This will be about plugging in the internet to every aspect of traditional organizing. The new media arm of the governor's campaign will be building relationships with online communities, broadcasting Corzine's message using digital tools, helping to produce online content - including photos, videos and blog posts - and working with staff and volunteers to spread the word using online tools to organize offline events.
They're looking for videographers, photographers, bloggers, and people with general online organizing knowledge. Applicants should have good working knowledge of digital tools, and a good imagination for how to use them effectively.
Oh, and if you're a social networky sort of person, they want you, too.
Contact: jmelli(at)votecorzine09(dotcom) or via twitter.
And here we are for the main event, the much anticipated debate between former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie and former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan.
Let's get an open thread going and hear what Blue Jersey readers have to say about the rhetorical manure about to be thrown across our television screens. Let's have some fun, and for those playing the New Jersey GOP Drinking Game, don't forget to take a shot every time one of the candidates says conservative.
In a little noticed piece of news last week, federal monitors announced that New Jersey had successfully completed the first phase of a court ordered overhaul of the state's child welfare system. Many will recall that just a few a years ago watchdog groups and news media lambasted the state for the inadequate care it provided the approximately 11,000 children in its care.
According to Children Rights, the nonprofit group responsible for the federal monitor, the reforms introduced by the Corzine Administration are working:
More children have been adopted into permanent families. After setting a new state record by finalizing 1,540 adoptions in 2007, DCF (Department of Children and Family) maintained a steady pace in 2008, finalizing 1,374 adoptions for the year.
More foster and adoptive homes are available for children. DCF licensed 2,169 new foster and adoptive homes in 2008, including 903 new kinship-care licenses enabling children in foster care to live with relatives rather than in unfamiliar foster homes. For the second consecutive year, the state posted a net gain of more than 800 foster and adoptive homes ? a vast improvement over the net losses it routinely posted in previous years.
DCF has improved health care, family preservation, and other services for children in need. DCF has begun creating specialized units in each local field office to manage the health care needs of children in foster care, and has expanded the capacity of state-run substance abuse treatment centers for parents and children. DCF has also launched a new initiative to provide preventive services to pregnant women and young children deemed at risk of abuse or neglect, and created new centers to provide locally-based services aimed at keeping families together.
DCF has increased financial support for foster families. As of January 2009, the state had met its court-ordered obligation to increase monthly support payments to foster parents ? provided to help them cover cost of food, clothing, and other basic needs of children in foster care ? to reflect the U.S. Department of Agriculture?s estimated child-care costs. In 2008, DCF increased these payments by an average of $168 per month.
Child welfare workers are better trained and have more manageable caseloads. In 2008, DCF met or exceeded all court-ordered caseload targets and training requirements for DCF caseworkers and supervisors. Approximately 99 percent of DCF caseworkers now carry manageable caseloads in line with national standards. As recently as September 2006, workers in 39 percent of DCF local offices were overloaded with caseloads that were higher than national standards.
This significant progress is a testament to the hard work of state employees, the bipartisan support of the Legislature, and Governor Jon Corzine's belief that even in hard times the state budget must reflect a progressive commitment to protecting the most vulnerable among us.
"Protecting our children is a paramount obligation of government even during difficult economic times," said Corzine. "We must remain ever-vigilant in our ongoing efforts to improve the meaningful protections and services we provide for children and families in need because every child deserves a good home, a bright future, and a healthy mindset."
In the din of the present campaign, criticism of the Governor grabs headlines. Yet the reforms that brought about this positive change represent another one of Jon Corzine's quiet successes. More than a victory for him, though, they represent a victory for the children of New Jersey.
Updated by Jason: This was an amazing and interesting interview in which we found out that Chris Christie's U.S. Attorney office originally said they had no documents whatsoever on the matter. The ACLU only got their documents after filing suit. She said New Jersey has been more aggressive than almost any other state. We hope you enjoy. You can lend a hand at ACLU-NJ.org
Each week, Blue Jersey Radio streams LIVE with New Jersey's latest political buzz, interviews with newsmakers, and your stimulating calls. Tonight we bet it will be buzzing with your questions ...
Tonight's edition of Blue Jersey Radio features a guest we're very interested to hear from. If you've never listened in before, tonight's a great night to jump in.
Our guest tonight is Catherine Crump, lead ACLU attorney on the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit which brought to light the government's warrantless tracking of New Jerseyans - using their own cell phones - under then-U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.
We'd love to know what you want us to ask her, and you can leave suggestions for Jeff and Jason here in Comments. Or, better yet, call in during the show, and join the live discussion.
That number again is 646-652-2773. The government might know you're calling, and where you're calling from within about 15 feet ... but be brave.
We started talking about this in last week's show. And you can find Blue Jersey's coverage of Christie's warrantless cell phone monitoring grouped together here.
Hey, if you're tweeting the show, you can help us spread the word:
Is Chris Christie tracking your cell phone? http://bit.ly/OR8Ym #warrantlesschristie
CQ Politics has an interesting blog post on why Chris Christie may be setting himself up for a primary loss to Steve Lonegan. Written by Bill Pascoe, a Republican operative with a lot of experience losing campaigns in New Jersey, it raises some interesting points about the presumed front runner's appeal among conservative voters and the performance of his campaign thus far:
And if we wake up on the morning of June 3rd to the news that Lonegan is the GOP nominee for governor of New Jersey, today may be the day that goes down as the day Lonegan catapulted himself past Christie for good.
... For the past two weeks, the Christie campaign has played right into Lonegan's hands. After making the fundamental strategic error of deciding to attack Lonegan, the Christie campaign then began a series of tactical errors.
... Winning campaigns control the campaign discussion; losing campaigns respond to the other guys. So in attacking Lonegan over his tax plan, the Christie campaign is playing a losing hand.
Second, while the Christie campaign appears to be long on endorsements and county lines -- the old standbys of establishment Republican campaigns in New Jersey -- it appears to be decidedly short on policy wonks.
Consequently, there doesn't appear to be anyone at Christie headquarters to actually crunch the numbers on the Lonegan tax reform proposal and look at them from a political angle.
It appears that even Republicans are beginning to discover what Blue Jersey has been noting all along: Chris Christie is great with a soundbite but has yet to come up with any serious plan to achieve his agenda. While it's amusing to watch the primary heat up, it's sad that establishment Republicans have placed their trust in an empty suit. Strange as it is, any chance of meaningful debate between the two parties may be saved by New Jersey's right wing.
Jon Bon Jovi, a longtime supporter of Democratic candidates, will do an accoustic concert in June at NJ Performing Arts Center (NJPAC), a fundraiser for Jon Corzine's re-election campaign. And though some tickets slide up to $3,400 for Host Committee participants going to the private reception before the concert, there will also be plenty of tickets priced at $50.
I've never been to a Bon Jovi accoustic concert, but doing a little digging, I found this video. I's very short on visuals, in fact it's a little weird to look at, but the audience response just knocks me out. New Jersey's home turf fo Jon Bon Jovi so I'm thinking there might be some serious audience participation June 4 when he comes up to sing for the Governor.
If you're not a reliable Republican primary voter (as Jeff Gardner is a Lonegan conservative), you may have missed the robocalls that are going out for Chris Christie from Mr. 9/11 himself Rudy Giuliani and Bret Schundler. Vincent wrote yesterday about the fight over who the real conservative is and as Christie continues to try defining himself as the man, they're trying to help:What do you think of robocalls? They always annoyed me as a staffer. Somehow I would always manage to call after they got a robo call and most voters would complain about them. It would take more than a recorded message from Rudy or Schundler to get me to vote for Christie, that I know. But then again, I'm probably not their target.
Can I just say again how much I love a GOP primary. Rick Merckt decided to go after the Christie campaign platform during a forum yesterday and made this analysis of what he's got planned:
So essentially, four fifths of his campaign is fluff. It may be well-intentioned fluff, but it's fluff nonetheless.
Many would question the remaining one fifth Merckt isn't calling nonsense as well. We've been saying that Christie is full of it here at Blue Jersey for years. His primary opponents call him out regularly. Slowly the media is coming around. Let's hope the voters get the message by election day.
The Republican gubernatorial primary is turning into a tighter race than predicted and Chris Christie is battling back against Steve Lonegan, arguing that he, not Lonegan, is the real conservative running to defeat Jon Corzine. Here's a summary of his teleconference from Politicker NJ:
"I'm the only one proposing to cut taxes," Christie told reporters in a teleconference call. "He (Lonegan) admitted this week to the Philadelphia Inquirer that his plan would raise taxes 70% and 75% on senior citizens. His plan is foolish and bizarre. It's not a conservative idea. It's the kind of idea you would normally hear from Democrats.
"The only thing conservative about him is he says he's conservative," Christie said of Lonegan.
Republican households may also be receiving a robocall from former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler, who won the GOP nomination in 2001 with the support of the party's conservative grassroots. Schundler's endorsed Christie, and here's what Wally Edge has on the call:
"I know a conservative when I see one," Schundler says. "And that's why I've decided to endorse Chris Christie for Governor." Schundler touts Christie as someone who will fight for "conservative values in Trenton" and touts Christie's economic plan, including his record of saving tax dollars by "taking down corporate criminals and busting corrupt politicians."
Despite dismissing the Lonegan internal poll that shows the former mayor making rapid gains, the Christie campaign must be worried. After months of ignoring the primary opposition, he has finally engaged. Rick Shaftan, Lonegan's campaign manager, wants primary voters to turn their attention to ideology. He said, "We're happy to meet them on our turf. They're reacting to everything we say now."
Let's hope the battle to determine who's more conservative than the other continues to Primary Day. Afterward, whoever wins will have some explaining to do.
Governor Jon Corzine is set to undertake the historic task of selecting an individual to run as the Democratic candidate to become the first Lieutenant Governor in New Jersey history.
On Monday, we looked at the potential Republican picks for Lieutenant Governor. Today, below the fold is a diverse list of ten possible Democratic contenders. It is subjective and, more than anything, written to solicit the opinions of Blue Jersey readers on the strengths and weaknesses of each potential pick.
As the final weeks of the Republican primary unfold, Chris Christie and Steve Lonegan will be busy campaigning, trading criticisms of one another, and making the case on the air waves and the internet that they alone are best suited to take on Jon Corzine in this November's gubernatorial election.
Corzine, and whoever wins the GOP nomination on Primary Day, will also undertake the historic task of selecting an individual to run as their respective party's candidate to be the first Lieutenant Governor in New Jersey history. Below the fold is a list of ten possible Republican contenders. It is subjective and, more than anything, written to solicit the opinions of Blue Jersey readers on the strengths and weaknesses of each potential pick.
Please click the headline, read on, comment away, and look out this Thursday for an analysis of potential Democratic choices for Lieutenant Governor.
Assemblyman Rick Merkt, a long shot candidate for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, believes his candidacy has been a success because his primary rivals are talking about altering the ideological makeup of the Supreme Court. Below is an excerpt from the PolitickerNJ article:
In Merkt's view, one can't affect change in the state without altering the makeup Supreme Court first. Four out of the seven justices will come up for reappointment during the next gubernatorial term, while one is set to reach the mandatory age of retirement. The governor is required to keep a partisan balance on the court, although Merkt could try to find Democrats who share his political philosophy.
"In one regard, I view this campaign as a huge success because this issue has finally come to the fore," said Merkt.
The next Governor's ability to appoint the next majority on the New Jersey Supreme Court is an important but rarely discussed issue in the campaign. What kind of change does the GOP wish to affect? What would that mean for affordable housing? Environmental regulation? Paid family leave? Marriage equality?
