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How Linda Stender Lost

by: Blue Jersey

Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 11:23:23 AM EST



Post-mortems are a sad duty in any world, in no small way because it means "after death."  The death in this case are the hopes of thousands of volunteers, donors and staff to send Linda Stender to Congress to represent New Jersey's 7th Congressional District.

This has been a four year effort for many of us, starting before Linda even decided to run in 2006.  It is hard for some of us because we know Linda personally and like her very much, and worked so hard and invested so much in getting her to the finish line.

In 2006 we came within 1.5 percent of the vote against a three term Republican named Mike Ferguson.  It was a stunningly unexpected effort that shocked the national party which gave secondary support to the campaign while dumping millions in others where the margin was seven points or more.

In 2008 Linda lost by a little less than nine percent, a stunning defeat in a race where we saw polls putting Stender even or just behind State Senator Leonard Lance in the days before the election.  It was made all the more stunning in that 2008 was a better year for Democrats than 2006, yet the Stender campaign fell far behinds its previous result.

How could that happen?  Lance didn't run a great campaign.  Stender had lots more money.  The DCCC dropped over a million dollars into the district, while the NRCC walked away and focused on NJ3.  Registration for Democrats jumped dramatically.  And then there was that guy running for President who brought Democratic turnout to amazing levels.  The environment couldn't have been better.

But she lost anyway.

Because, as near as we can tell, they forgot all the lessons of 2006 that got them close.  Instead of building on the energy and volunteers from the previous election they brought in an entirely new team from outside the district, ignored the organizations like Democracy for America that supported Stender in 2006, and blew off local expertise in favor of a cookie-cutter campaign.

Blue Jersey :: How Linda Stender Lost
In 2006 the Hunterdon Democracy for America essentially managed the Hunterdon County part of the campaign, rallying volunteers and building support in the most difficult area of the district.  Blue 7th (aka Dump Mike) raised thousands of dollars, got scores of letters to the editor published, recruited volunteers and kept the energy up.  The netroots - led by the Corzine for Governor campaign's new media consultant Matt Stoller in conjunction with Blue Jersey founder Juan Melli - raised more than $60,000 for Stender and publicized her efforts among progressive Democrats across the country.  Her campaign was managed by Stender's Assembly Chief of Staff Ed Oatman and the field was run by Union County native Nick Fixmer.

But in 2008 the campaign brought in the Washington folks, relying on the party apparatus and Emily's List consultants to run the show.  The outside campaign staff had no experience with NJ7, had nothing to do with the near-win in 2006, and totally blew off the local grassroots and netroots.  They tried to win by outspending and out-advertising and out-phoning and out-celebritying the Lance team.  They tried to win by running an issue campaign primarily on reproductive rights, and when they stepped into other territory it was to blame Lance for legislative issues of spending and taxes that could have been used against Stender, too.

The electorate and grass/netroots supporters were never certain why Linda Stender was running for Congress, aside from the obvious advantage to the District, the state and the House of having another representative with a D after her name. If she had a mission, a drive to accomplish something specific in Washington, we did not see it, and we suspect most of the voters did not see it.

Running on the protection of women's reproductive freedom, while certainly the right position - and by the way, the law of the land -  was not enough to light up this electorate. Pro-choice Republicans and undeclareds never saw choice as an issue because they were confident Obama would be elected President and the Democrats would keep the Congress.  Since choice was not at risk for most voters, it was not an issue that could move voters.  Add that to Lance's pro-choice position and it was a loser.

We saw that so clearly, and wonder why her campaign did not. Demonizing Lance was not enough, particularly with silly cartoon ads (produced by DCCC) showing her opponent dancing past problems, or calling to mind Trenton spending which could have been used against Stender too. That was just tone-deaf, and more than a little bit insulting to voters inspired by the more measured and meaty campaign being led by Barack Obama at the top of her ticket.

You'd think Stender, leading on of the most watched congressional campaigns in the country, would have grasped several weeks ago that choice was not getting traction and that the voters wanted to hear about the economy and how Stender was going to fix it.  But without having grass/netroots folks in and around that message didn't get through.

Back in 2005 when the grass/netroots first started talking about how to win the 7th district after a depressing 2004 general election we figured it was going to be a two-race effort.  In 2006 we would build the local support an in 2008 we would marry it with national support.  At a DFA candidate forum at the Raritan Valley Community College in Somerset County someone asked Linda if she was willing to commit to running twice to take the seat.  She said, and rightly so, that she intended to win in 2006.

But as soon as the race was over in November, Stender announce she was running again.  She kept on her finance officer and began building connections with Washington to set herself up for 2008.  The connections paid off in early fundraisers, money and support.  Washington assigned Abby Curran to be the campaign manager, and she made it clear that the new campaign would be exactly that - a new campaign.

Those who had worked so hard in 2005 and 2006, who had suffered and volunteered and built organizations and raised money and ran the campaign were marginalized or ignored.  Phone calls were not returned, suggestions were ignored, support was turned down.  Blue 7th went away in 2007, but Democracy for America - an early endorser of the 2006 effort - was given short shrift.

Word is that Curran once intimated that if the grass/netroots had been so helpful in 2006 then Stender would have won instead of just coming close.

Yet performance fell seven points between 2006 with the grass/netroots and 2008 without them.

The point here is not to suggest that the DCCC, Emily's List and the rest of the Washington establishment should not be involved or even take the lead.  We were all thrilled at the early money and support, at the assignment of additional resources and personnel for the campaign.  They made the right choice in coming in to NJ7, and we think they made the right choice of candidate as well.  Linda Stender could have been an excellent candidate and a fantastic member of Congress.

The point is that the DCCC, Emily's List and the rest of the Washington establishment needs to learn to work with the local grass/netroots cooperatively.  In many cases the grass/netroots are the people who have been trying to win the district for decades or more.

The same mistake was made in 2000 where local volunteers beat back local party approved and DCCC endorsed candidate Mike Lapolla in a shocking win for another Fanwood mayor, Maryanne Connelly.  Then the establishment party swept in and swept out the existing campaign structure, and Connelly lost to Mike Ferguson in a district that included Democratic powerhouses Plainfield and Franklin.

In the case of NJ7 it means that the Washington folks should have built on the success of 2006 instead of starting from scratch.  It should have been cooperative, with the Washington people in the lead on most of the campaign.  They are the experts on running a campaign, but the grass/netroots are the experts on the local area.  The two together - professionals who can put the campaign structure and work the nuts and bolts and locals who can find the pockets and niche locations where the margin of victory comes from - can make a real difference in tough districts.

It worked in New Hampshire with Carol Shea-Porter who kept her seat.  The locals won a seat against incumbent Jeb Bradley (R) in 2006, and then worked with the national party structure to keep it into 2008.

But here in NJ7 the decision was made to keep only one thing from 2006 - the candidate.  Everything else was tossed out the window.

And so was the election.

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Stale cookies (4.00 / 2)
Not only was this a cookie cutter campaign, it was an outdated recipe that made no sense in 2008.

Ask any middle-school history student what the top issue was this year, and they can tell you it was the economy. Everyone - everyone! - knew this.

Except, apparently, the people running the Stender campaign.  


Forgetting your roots (4.00 / 2)
This campaign reminds me of the Asselta/Van Drew campaign last year. Asselta had everything going his way but he decided to play " big time" and get outside help. His team had no idea how to run a local campaign. Van Drew knew exactly what the voters wanted and needed. His campaign group was not intimidated by the big timers who came in for Asselta.

It appears Stender did the same thing. Stender might have started reading her National press clippings.  

Sometimes these candidates forget who brought them to the dance. Lance knew the District , Stenders " people " did not.

Notice how Adler came on top. Local people knowing local issues.

Stender had her shot. Time to move on.  


Synchronicity.... (4.00 / 1)
.....it seems we were both writing about the same thing at the same time.

I was writing from my gut and off the top of my head....and you were writing from the position of someone who actually had/has the factual information.

I'm not sure how much of that diary was the result of investigative reporting and how much was a recounting of personal experience based on direct knowledge of the facts, but either way, it all rings true.

Here's a wee bit of what I wrote elsewhere http://www.bluejersey.com/show... that applies here too...


Blame Is A Negative Frame...  
...and not productive.   Obviously, any kind of critique and/or comment can be taken that way...and that's not productive either.

We, as progressive democrats, need to face the reality that this was a winnable/well funded race that was lost.

We don't really have all the facts/details about what happened and why.

If, as it seems, there actually were people "above" Linda Stender "who were actually responsible for the campaign's strategy and messaging decisions... " then Stender herself needs to bear the responsibility for having allowed that to happen.

If that did happen, it wasn't in a vacuum.  Lot's of people must have seen it happening and sensed that something was "not quite right".  

I wish someone had "blown the whistle" on that process early on.  

Even from the distance of Bergen County and just getting the few odd emails from the campaign, my own instincts were precisely along the lines of the picture you drew.  I thought she would still win, but by a slim margin and that lots of money was being pissed away that could have made a big difference for Shulman and others.

It's easy enough to "blame" Stender for letting herself be sucked into that tempting cocoon of "experts" and "pros".  But, I know that if I had done some digging and had spoken to a few people that (given my nature) I would have wound up writing a critique of this mess months ago....it might have made a difference.

My point is that we are all, in some way, accountable.  The more we knew and understood about what was going wrong...the more accountable we are.

Evidently, the people of the 7th actively resented the artificiality of the pumped up DCCC approach and missed the "old" Linda Stender.

So, what's to be done?   Here's the conclusion of the comment quoted above...

Hundreds of thousands more New Jersey Democrats can be registered in time for 2010.   There's no reason we can't get up to 90% registration and 90% turnouts!

Massive registration and massive turnouts can only be good for REAL democrats!

Politics/democracy really CAN work to positively transform our economy/schools/health care/roads etc etc etc.  IF we make it work.

The DCCC agenda and single issue advocacy is not a winning team/formula.  Money is important, but if that's "all you got" you'll lose to a halfway/cosmetically decent Republican like Lance.

When the people lead, the politicians will follow.   Little or no good will manifest if we keep on passively  waiting/expecting to be "led".

The real "mothers milk" of politics isn't money. It's enlightened/human energy.  


Same Old Lesson (0.00 / 0)
Just shows that the DCCC can still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

the DCCC (4.00 / 1)
i still love this ad by the DCCC in nj-3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yphZc81h4kI

activist for hire.


[ Parent ]
Lance (3.50 / 2)
I think Lance was a stronger candidate than people here are giving him credit for.  He's not as socially conservative as Ferguson, and is well-known in the district, and has been, for quite a while.

Wandering away ... in droves (0.00 / 0)
I can't say how things were in Middlesex County, or Union. But in the outlying parts of the district, in Somerset & Hunterdon, people were just driven to get Linda Stender elected in 2006. It was mission. Religion, almost.

And that's all kinds of people. Grassroots people, netroots brethren, party people, and everyday people who just wandered in off the streets when they looked through the window in the local offices and saw that the campaign had life.

People who were used to wall-to-wall Republican representation saw a real chance at something infinitely better. And they were willing to pour work into it to see it happen. I mean, people were hungry. And she was our gal.

But as the 08 campaign took shape, you'd hear things like local municipal chairs weren't getting their phone calls returned, the campaign staff didn't seem to know the people who got things done, and didn't seem to care. Or cared too late, when those people were already wrapped up in Obama. The campaign felt smug, and exuded a sense of entitlement, a we-don't-need-you kind of thing.

And people just ... wandered away.  


Same impression where I am in (0.00 / 0)
Somerset.  People I've spoken to afterwards just felt Stender did not establish much credibility this year, and hurt herself badly with some claims that many felt were unsubstantiated regarding Lance.  

My other issue, though, is how does one (effectively) campaign from the grass roots in a district as gerrymandered as the 7th?  One has to remember that this district did manage to elect the religious right wing loon, Mike Ferguson, when the district boundary was roughly similar.

Given my own very limited contact with her campaign I had to ask myself whether she even wanted to win this district this year?  Whatever she was doing, it wasn't getting to the right people and maybe that's par for the course, but I think of all the smart ways Obama's supporters used the 'net and then I looked at her campaign.  

You'd think I'd have run into some of her positive campaign somewhere along the way, even if only by accident, but all I saw were expensive 4-color printed handbills that were boring, factually questionable and just not very compelling -- and I voted for her anyway.  Despite serious misgivings.  

But the only reason she got my vote this time was that I tend to vote straight Dem unless someone else grabs my attention, or I find that the Dem in question is a major criminal. In fact, if Hsing had started campaigning actively a few days earlier than he did, he might have gotten my vote in this race.


[ Parent ]
I speak from experience: (4.00 / 1)
Emily's List, once a bright spot on our side of things, ain't all that no mo'. When you got them involved, you then have their inside-the-beltway claque that comes with them. and trust me when I tell you:

Too many of them could not find their asses with both hands, a flashlight and a GPS.

E's L is about E's L. Their position in the floating world of Washington and their influence. Whether or not a woman gets elected is damn near ancillary.

I have learned, the hard way, to have absolutely no regard for them, their people or their tactics. They are smugness and self-satisfaction in action. Or inaction.

The nom de plume has a long and distinguished history.


Her inital ads were really good where she said (4.00 / 1)
working hard should mean getting ahead.  then the DCCC started  the attack ads against Lance which just didn't ring true.
I didn't like the ads and Stender stopped putting out new ads of her own.  It seemed, from the outside, that the campaign was lethargic and stale.

How Did Obama Win? (4.00 / 2)
Remember the caucuses in Texas and Iowa?  He ran local campaigns, everywhere.  He implemented Dean's 50 state solution. The community organizer Palin and Giuliani dismissed with such disdain at the RNC organized just about every community in the country.  

Agree (4.00 / 1)
Very good post.  

In addition to all of that, I agree with what someone has mentioned above.  IMO Lance was a pretty strong candidate.


You know (4.00 / 1)
This loss was devastating to all of us who worked out of Dem HQ in Flemington.  We had a paid staffer from the DNC (Hi Scott!!) who had the technical resources we needed and the organizational skills.  We had attractive local candidates, too.  The message Linda's handlers sent out was beyond his control.  All we could do as advocates for Linda was reiterate her opposition to the war, her support of choice and stem-cell research, and her general sensible outlook.

However, some volunteers only wanted to work for Obama.  They weren't interested in the down-ticket races.  And many voters split their votes--we got out the Dems and supporters on Election Day, but Obama's coattails weren't long enough.

Yes, those stupid DCCC commercials did their damage, too.  As did the Freedom's Watch hateful lies about Linda.

It's a complicated mess.  Very sad for us who donated money and time.

(sigh) The other Linda


The Obama Model (4.00 / 1)
That's a great post - detailed and insightful.  Right on target.  I'm suprised at the major disconnect between the DCCC and Obama Campaign.  As the post clearly illustrates, their campaign strategies could not be more opposite.  Obama's domination in blue states and expansion into red states clearly demonstrated that grassroots-based campaigns, that empower volunteers by "guiding" not "directing," are the future of the Democratic Party.  The DCCC didn't even sip the coolade (at least not in NJ7).  I hope they find some by 2010.

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