Primary Poll Predictions

Prediction (4.00 / 1)

57-40-3 Lautenberg.

---

by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 07:38:36 AM CDT

Only 3 votes for the Mayor? :) n/t (4.00 / 1)

---

by: denniscmcgrath @ Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 08:14:20 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Only 100 votes total? (0.00 / 0)

:-)

---

by: huntsu @ Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 08:46:53 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

North Jersey Soft (4.00 / 2)

Lautenberg support in North Jersey is a mile wide and an inch deep. I don't think his supporters are going to go out of their way to vote and he will be hurt in certain areas like Newark.

Of course if they do he will win by 10 points.

But people appreciate personal contact and Andrews has done that in this race. With such a low turnout expected a 80-20 win in the southern six counties and a poor GOTV in the North will give Andrews a 1,500 vote win.      

---

by: firstamend07 @ Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 08:16:12 AM CDT

inch deep (4.00 / 1)

The thing is, the inch is all that comes out on primary day!

I hear that in some counties they are getting fewer than a couple hundred absentee ballots.  Interest is really low, and those inchers are the only ones with interest.

I do expect that, as you say, South Jersey will have a higher turnout percentage.  I just wonder if the smaller voter pool will be enough to make it up.

---

by: huntsu @ Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 08:46:16 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Lautenberg 52-45-3 (0.00 / 0)

Lautenberg wins by 25% in 70% of the state. Andrews wins by 35% in 30% of the sate. That makes a 7% margin overall.

---

by: Dvd Avins @ Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 08:22:55 AM CDT

My guess is Frank by 5 to 8 % (0.00 / 0)

Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.

---

by: FogerRox @ Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 10:50:21 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Lautenberg Wins in The North By A Massive.... (0.00 / 0)

majority.  

I've seen, first hand, who shows up to vote in low turnout primaries and 70% of em are in Lautenberg's demographic.

State wide, I'm stickin to my original prdiction made ages ago (or so it seems ;-) and that's Lautenberg by 15 (give or take a few).   If I had to bet I would say Lautenberg by 17.

If firstamend7's fantasy comes to pass and Andrews takes it in a squeaker; it will be because the Lautenberg camp didn't have the balls to say what they really thought of Andrews and because the bold faced lie that Lautenberg is an incompetent "old man" somehow caught fire.   I'd say that's a 100 to one shot.

If Lautenberg had "gone nuclear" he would have won by 50 + points....but it seems that that would have upset too many apple carts and illuminated too many dark corners

Meanwhile, I look forward to seeing y'all at the victory celebration in Newark Tuesday night! :-)

---

by: Nick Lento @ Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 11:28:16 AM CDT

Lautenberg by 10 points or thereabout (0.00 / 0)

---

by: JRB @ Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 18:05:35 PM CDT