| Simply put, I think Hillary completes an Obama ticket, and that a combined Obama-Clinton ticket will absolutely obliterate McCain-Whoever, with coattails to spare.
I don't subscribe to the theory that VP candidates "win states" for Presidential candidates. So, I don't think we should go shopping for a candidate in Wisconsin or Colorado or wherever. In 2008's wired world, geographic considerations are no longer what they once might have been, and recent outcomes back that up.
Anyway, people don't vote for Vice Presidents - they vote for Presidents. So, a good VP choice is one that completes the presidential candidate's resume, and creates a ticket that can compete everywhere.
Barack Obama's strengths are his strengths - and they are many and enormous and great, and have propelled him to where he is now. His biggest weakness as a candidate thus far appears to be the "trust factor" - specifically, concern about his experience - which has played out as underperformance among seniors, women, latinos, and jewish voters - all constituencies with the potential to swing in John McCain's direction.
On that score, an Obama-Clinton ticket leaves little room for error. Democrats have enjoyed over a year of nonstop frontpage reinforcement of the message that this election is about the inspirational Obama and the experienced Clinton. Her attempt to paint him as unelectable has fallen as flat as his attempt to paint her as inexperienced. He's obviously electable, and she's obviously experienced. Primary voters nationally could hardly be more evenly split between them - and they've proved that in the voting booth.
Indeed, uniting that very real divide in the party is the biggest challenge right now, and the easiest to fix. The new guard, with Obama as its standard-bearer is poised to take over from the old guard. That kind of change is inevitable. Whether the new guard has the good sense to bring the old guard along with them is what separates a winner from a loser.
Looking to the past can be instructive. Kennedy's pick of Johnson was a brilliant way to tamp down concerns about his relative inexperience. Reagan's pick of Bush was even more brilliant in bringing together two strongly divided wings of a party following an acrimonious primary. Both are examples of a charismatic presidential nominee choosing an experienced wonky VP. Hate them all you like, but W's choice of Cheney did much the same thing.
So, here we are again. The Obama v. Clinton presidential primary storyline has helped register gobs of new voters, energized countless others, and relegated John McCain specifically, and the republican party generally, to the back pages for months now.
We would be fools to break up the band. |
