Can Someone Really Take the Fifth?

As I've Been Saying For Years... (4.00 / 1)

...Garrett is vulnerable to a truly aggressive progressive who can connect with ordinary people.

Garrett is more "Bushy" than Bush and people are become more sick and more tired of Bushism with passing day.

I don't believe a "milquetoast moderate" will cut it.    An exciting energized candidacy will bring out the vote.

I look forward to seeing both candidates positively discussing/debating the issues and presenting themselves side by side in front of an audience.

 

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by: Nick Lento @ Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 18:10:08 PM CDT

Nick: (4.00 / 2)

My experience is that Garrett will duck, weave, bob and jive to avoid any and all debates with his opponents. He has done it before and he will do it again.

His campaign style, at least out here, is Republican-organized "meetings" with voters, usually held at municipal buildings, where the agenda is "Ain't I just grand!" and the gulf between fantasy and reality is galaxy-wide.  

The nom de plume has a long and distinguished history.

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by: Tandalayo Scheisskopf @ Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 18:26:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Exactly Right: That's Why His "Strength" Is ... (4.00 / 3)

hard but brittle and will shatter easily.

Garrett has never had to contend with an energetic, in your face, challenger who will not hesitate to knock on all of the doors in the most Republican of neighborhoods.    

There's lots of disgust with Bush's policies even amongst Republicans these days.

Garrett has the "winning appeal" of an arrogant bully; he needs to be mercilessly chopped down to size...and he's so damned vulnerable on so many issues.   The man is a walking poster for the worst elements/aspects of the Bush presidency.

If these poll numbers hold up into the summer; I suspect Garrett just might come down off his high horse and engage in debates.......and if he doesn't; then that fact just becomes another club to apply with gusto.

Further, a truly dynamic Democratic challenger should be able to register at least 5000 new Democratic voters.

It's all a matter of doing what Obama has done on a national scale, at the level of the 5th district.....not easy, but possible.

Btw, the debates I was referring to in my post were the ones I hope to see between the Democratic challengers.

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by: Nick Lento @ Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 18:41:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ok, Camille: (0.00 / 0)

Where in the 5th was this poll conducted? I want to think that this is the best news I have heard in quite a while, I sure would like a closer look at the polling areas and methodologies.

The reason I ask is that I have real reservations that anyone out on the western side of things even knows that there is a congressional race going on at this time.

And you have to get votes out here. Besides, we have a great freeholder candidate running out here in Adam Fitting and a good ticket, running together and with a unified message, would stand a far better chance.

The nom de plume has a long and distinguished history.

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by: Tandalayo Scheisskopf @ Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 18:23:08 PM CDT

Camille Brings District-Wide Appeal (4.00 / 1)

Traveling around the 5th District with Camille Abate, I've seen first hand a highly energized Democratic Party.  Camille and other Democratic candidates recently attended an event at the headquarters of the Warren County Democrats in Washington.  Mike Sedita was pleased to have a standing-room-only crowd gathered to meet the candidates in attendance.  This past weekend Democrats thronged to the first nominating convention to be hosted by the Sussex County Democrats in over 20 years and voted overwhelmingly to endorse Camille Abate.  I've listened to Democratic leaders from Mike Sedita to Megan Ward and Ed Selby marvel at new faces turning out in huge numbers to participate in the process earlier than ever before.  Camille Abate has reached out to enthusiastic Democrats and Independents all over the 5th District and is using this primary challenge to organize the early base of support needed to defeat Scott Garrett in November.

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by: jonas @ Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 20:03:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ok, Jonas, but... (0.00 / 0)

One would hope that such outreach would go wider and the candidates would reach out and make themselves known to those who traditionally vote Republican as well.

Look, I know it is tough out here, with the only paper being The Express-Times, a marvel of journalistic sonambulance and cronic power structure satisfaction. That said, there is a lot of dissatisfaction with things as they are, even among the Repubs and figuring out a way to make a case to them can well result in peeling off votes for Dem candidates, and you are gonna have to peel those votes off. That said, the issues are unique out here. For instance, did you know that Warren Cty has the highest per capita rate of welfare recipients in the state? That's straight skinny from the County Assistance people. There are very few jobs out here and prices keep going up for everything.

Getting the attention of the party faithful is one thing. Going wider is gonna take a lot more work. Trust me: I have been down that road.

Oh, yes. I have.

And I still would like to know how much of those polling results came from us country mice.

I wish Camille and you all good fortune in this, Jonas.

The nom de plume has a long and distinguished history.

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by: Tandalayo Scheisskopf @ Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 23:03:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Poll is wishful thinking (0.00 / 0)

I am sure that Congressman Garrett's poll numbers are quite low due to the harsh anti-Bush sentiment permeating our country. But in the real world, the fifth district is not safe for any Democrat.

Thanks to Bush, Iraq and the economy, this race may be more competitive than usual but it doesn't change the fact that the political demographics up in the fifth do not favor Democrats.

The people living in this district are no liberals. You certainly can't win on a strictly progressive platform.

The best candidate in this race may just be Dennis Shulman. From what I know of the guy, he is nothing less than brilliant with the right statesman-like quality that could make him a seriously legitimate contender for the seat.

This is no personal knock on Camille Abate. In a different kind of district, she might be a hero. But this district is simply not made for her brand of politics. It's that simple.

I would say that under the anti-Bush tide taken hold in New Jersey, Garrett would likely be more vulnerable to an aggressively well funded challenge in a Republican primary than in a general election against a liberal leaning Democratic activist.

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by: TerryMalloy-OnTheWaterfront @ Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 00:12:54 AM CDT

Sadly, I agree (0.00 / 0)

I am torn over whom I'm going to vote for in the Democratic primary for NJ-5, being as it is my home district.  Camille seems abrasive, which is a style I normally like - calling neocons out on their bullshit and the like - but I agree that I don't think this will fly in "the conservative cap on the rest of blue new jersey."

Dennis Shulman is definitely qualified as well, but he seems like the antithesis to Camille in that he's too quiet.

Maybe I just haven't had enough time to see both of them out some more.  Either way, the key is getting Garrett to debate, which as in the past doesn't happen...  Whomever wins needs to bring it to Garrett, and there's no question that Camille would do that more, but if Dennis wins I hope he will be more active as well.

"Give me a lever long enough... and I shall move the world." - Archimedes

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by: mconvente @ Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 00:42:26 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

5th District (0.00 / 0)

the 5th is the most ideologically conservative district in our state, so in that sense Garrett has a better shot here than in almost any other district (district 11 has the biggest plurality of registered Republicans)  
 I think part of the problem, is that because the district stretches from Warren, to northern Sussex, to northern Passaic, to northern Bergen: its tough to get known as a Democratic challenger for that reason.   Also, its probably the most physically difficult district to canvass in the state, and my bet is it has the highest % of vacant Democratic county committee positions (with the exception of northern bergen).   That said, like all districts in NJ, it is changing and moving away from Garrett.  Do i think it will move far enough away from Garrett for him to lose this time?   Probably not.   Again, i hope i'm wrong, but it seems like garrett escapes every time

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by: BootGOP2006 @ Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 02:04:51 AM CDT

The Shulman campaign take on winnability.... (4.00 / 2)

Posted here: http://www.bluejersey.com/show...

Shulman for Congress campaign

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by: Shulman for Congress @ Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 07:58:59 AM CDT

Yes. (4.00 / 4)

A Democrat can win in the 5th.  More conservative districts fell in 2006 all around the country.  Working the West long-term is key.

While the western part of the 5th is Republican, the population centers such as West Milford, Sparta, Newton are takeable.

Camile Abate's endorsement by Sussex County Democrats and by the Mayor of West Milford shows inroads in the West.  I like to see that.

There was a time that Bergenfield had a 7-0 GOP council.  There were two times it voted for Reagan.  Now even with in-fighting it has a 7-0 Democratic mayor and council and the Republican party disentigrated.    

One mistake has been over time  that elected officials from the 5th have not stepped up to run.  Winning and holding a Democratic office in a 5th district town is essential for credibility.   Shame on me, shame on all of us 5th district elected Democrats.    

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by: CouncilmanBruceCarlson @ Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 08:58:53 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

West Milford (4.00 / 1)

I hope you are right, Councilman.

I've lived part time in WM for most of my life.   Therefore, I don't get to follow politics as much as I'd like, especially in the Winter/early Spring.

Yes, we now have a D mayor and one D councilman.  We lost our other D councilman in the last election (although I believe he is running again).

I've always perceived the township as resting mostly in the Reagan era.  In the last 2 or 3 years it has stuck a few toes into the 21st Century.  We have more ethnic, income and political diversity.

But the township is still primarily white working class.  Many count themselves as independents.  R's are more prevelant than D's.

The glue that keeps the place together are environmental issues and property taxes.

Despite Mayor Bieri's endorsement of Camille, I suspect voters will fall for Garrett's supposed fiscal conservatism.  It matches (in their minds) their own feelings about taxes.  And while not great, his environmental record is not atrocious.  When it became a hot topic, he ran to the aid of the Ramapoughs in Ringwood who live in the midst of the illegal Ford dumping site.

WM voters have mixed feelings about Iraq, don't particularly like illegal immigrants and would not admit they were poor enough or progressive enough to support SCHIP.  I hope things have changed since I was last there.

And besides, the fiscally conservative Garrett gave the township a rather large grant for something like re-doing our downtown.  We don't have a friggin' downtown!

But all politics is local.

We do have a growing and energetic Democratic party, replete with its own donkey, so maybe change will come.

When I'm there this summer, I plan to write a spate of letters to our local fish wraps deconstructing Garrett (with help from Blue Jersey and Retire Garrett).  I hope they will make people think about the disaster he (and Bush) have been for us.

Again, I hope you are right and I am wrong.

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by: SmartyJones @ Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 10:46:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

It'll be a fight. (4.00 / 1)

And it may not be '08 that takes it.  But if you look at Northern Bergen County as a precedent.. this was an area of moderate Republicans that has recently been voting for Democrats...there are so many towns there (Montvale, Westwood, Hillsdale, Demarest, Oakland, Ho-Hokus Oradell) that hadn't seen a lot of Democrats that have recently at different times hired Democrats to run their town.  It's always been a fight.

But the important point that I think is missed on some, but not all is that the fight itself is worth something.  Keeping the GOP occupied in the 5th means they are not capturing our seats elsewhere.  This is a year with a  RCCC that can't recruit or raise money.

So your battle in West Milford may help to hold a seat in Indiana.  

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by: CouncilmanBruceCarlson @ Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 15:34:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I quite agree with you (0.00 / 0)

Councilman Carlson.

Its important to have the fight and its important to elect as many "D" congresscritters as possible from all over the country.  I just wish one of them was from the 5th.

I started to think a bit more about the Congressional and state elections in WM.

Politics in the township is/are fiercely local.

If memory serves me correctly, the place (admittedly with a different demographic at the time) went reliably Roukema.  I don't recall Garrett campaigning much after that, but people just voted R.  And we're defintely Bush league.

Wolfe and Ahronson (sp?) were virtually unknown during their campaign cycles.  

Up until about a decade ago, we didn't have local elections based on party affiliation.

After we officially became D's and R's, the D's struggled.  Over the years, we have become more organized and better funded (the last is relative).  And we have become more noisy - out there and talking to folks.

So, if the D's can promote either Camille or Schulman, along with their local candidates, we might have a chance.  They might not, however,  if it lessens their local chances for election.

So, on a personal level, I'm going to try to make this an anti-Garrett campaign.  I don't know whether Camille or Dennis is "right" for our constituency.  I would support either.  But I want to make it clear why folks shouldn't vote for Garrett.

I think people have rejected Bush, but I'm not so sure they don't embrace McCain.  So much for coattails.  You know how they rationalize.  OTOH, people don't always vote straight line.

I'm yammering because I love this crazy town, but I wonder if others in the 5th have similar stories.  I always thought the part of the 5th that was East of us was (certainly) wealthier but also more progressive.  You broke my stereotype (except for Demarest).  I always thought that Sussex (also changing demographically) and TS's "broccoli" made us look liberal.  I'll be glad to say I'm wrong, but I hope we are a draw.

I'm ready to "re-frame."  I hope others will be, too.

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by: SmartyJones @ Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 19:00:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No Shame in Saying What is True!!! Thank You!!! (4.00 / 2)

We are living in interesting times.

The potential exists for all manner of extreme events to occur.

Scott Garrett is the Darth Vader of NJ politics; at least with creeps like Nat Turner you can see what they are.

Scott hides his inhumane maleficence behind a bible; and that is an atrocity.

A Democrat can win in the 5th if they make it a moral crusade.  

Garrett, despite the religiosity he so proudly wears on his sleeve, represents a politics of cruelty, meaness and intolerance for human decency.  

No supporter of Scott Garrett should be allowed to dwell under the illusion that they are in any way standing on high moral ground.

The policies of Garrett and Bush are the direct and indirect cause of great injustice and suffering in the lives of millions of people throughout the 5th District, NJ, The USA and the whole planet.

Garrett/Bush needs to be condemned in the strongest terms possible.  The facts are there to be uncovered and the arguments are there to be made.

There is nothing righteous in voting for Scott Garrett.   Quite the contrary; any informed and decent human being would be ashamed of themselves for supporting the toxic agendas of Mr Garrett.

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by: Nick Lento @ Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 10:52:00 AM CDT

[ Parent ]