District-level poll gives advantage to Dems

The undecided numbers are rather scary. (0.00 / 0)

In both districts, 28-29 percent are undecided.  

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by: Creed Pogue @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 10:48:48 AM CDT

that's good (0.00 / 0)

I'd imagine that's good for both Stender and Adler.  They both have a lot more money then their opponents, so undecideds will be hearing a lot more from them than Lance or Myers.  A lead in the polls plus a huge fundraising advantage should definitely give the Dems an edge.

Still a lot of work to do though...

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by: NYYDem @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:02:35 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

In general (4.00 / 1)

you figure that undecideds will break the way the rest of the population will.  In close races, it may be different enough to swing the result.  Given the strong Republican history of these districts - and that Obama is leading in both of them - I'd say this is actually good news.

Will commit political science for food.

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by: Thurman Hart @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 11:27:41 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

take these polls with a shaker of salt.... (0.00 / 0)

Stender/DCCC are notorious for labeling Hsing as an "independent Republican" in their polls.

this race is closer than 9 with Lance probably up a few points.

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by: maxidoodler @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 12:43:22 PM CDT

aaarrrrgggghhhhhh (0.00 / 0)

OK, this is not important but still.

You take something insignificant with a "grain" of salt, because the something is so small you can season it with just one grain.

If you say something should be taken with a shaker of salt, you are saying that something is huge and requires a LOT of salt to be seasoned.  

(sorry, it's a pet peeve of mine.  I should let it go, but it's an OCD thing.)

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by: huntsu @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 13:12:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

hmmm....never heard that one before (0.00 / 0)

never heard your grain story, but the phrase "with a grain of salt" means to take with a heavy dose of skepticism, caution and suspicion.

The saying came from the old cure for poison.

you might want to google it.

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by: maxidoodler @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 13:29:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Adler/ TV Ads (0.00 / 0)

Adler is finally running TV messages  and that will make the difference. You will see the 4 point advantage jump to at least 6 points simply because people will see him on TV.  

Money wins. TV money wins 95% of the time. Unlike us political junkies most people are just starting to make up their minds , especially in this race where there is no incumbent.

Adler has the cash , Myers will never be closer than 4 points from now on.  

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by: firstamend07 @ Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 18:28:16 PM CDT