ANDY KIM DECLARES VICTORY
After more than 24 hours of counting votes in CD3
CD7 flips to Democrats
Tom Malinowski 50.91% - Leonard Lance 47.54%
CD11 flips to Democrats
Mikie Sherrill 56.10% - Jay Webber 42.79%
In a foregone conclusion engineered by South Jersey Dem machine
And bizarrely, Moms Demand Action, Van Drew 52.24% - Grossman 45.91%
@bluejersey Twitter
Kellyanne Conway changed her Twitter profile
So BLUE JERSEY did too (and we VOTED HERE)
The night Hillary Clinton lost
For my Hillary sisters. From your Bernie sister.
(And why I’m voting Bob Menendez)
Storm over Congress
2018 midterm issues
If there’s a blue wave coming, what are the issues driving it?

Latest Posts

Forrester replacing conservatives with paid supporters?

Recent poll internals show Forrester’s support among Republicans nearly the same as Corzine’s support among Democrats, but some are speculating that Forrester’s recent change of heart on positions like stem cell research and abortion may cost him some critical votes:

Conservative Republican Dave Pawson agrees with GOP candidate Doug Forrester on most issues in the New Jersey governor’s race. But when Pawson goes into the voting booth next Tuesday, he won’t pull the lever for Forrester _ or for the other guy, either.

I don’t think I buy it. Conservatives are historically good at holding their noses and voting for lesser of two evils. I doubt there are many who won’t actually vote for Forrester. What’s more likely to happen is that these same supporters – the ones who usually help out with door knocking, stamp licking and rally attending, will be so disillusioned and uninspired, that they will refuse to help out the campaign:

Pawson said that when he heard the Kean ad while driving to work, his first thought was, “Well, that’s the end of the Forrester campaign.” Conservatives who had signed up to man phone banks, hand out literature and put up lawn signs for Forrester suddenly “unvolunteered,” he said.

This could translate into a lack of volunteers on election day, which will hurt his turnout. He’ll have to replace those volunteers with paid workers. Maybe that’s why he’s already resorted to paying people to cheer for him at events.

Doherty & Reilly for Assembly

SOOO…these amazing guys, Matt Doherty and Jim Reilly are running for assembly in LD-11. On their site they have this wicked cool “Full Disclosure” section. There they list all their donors and the amount of money donated. I think that’s such a great idea cuz this way you can tell who’s legitimate and where their campaign funds are comming from.

check it out: www.dohertyreilly2005.com

Rumors running rampant?

Last week a rumor was started about some damaging information which will surface for Jon Corzine. A popular NJ conservative blogger has gone out of his way to push the rumor, insisting that a tape would surface within 48 hours.

That was last Thursday. Nothing has surfaced, of course. It’s a last ditch effort to slam a decent, leading candidate. The blog in question is being called on it.

Rumormongering is the lowest form of negative campaigning. With negative ads, both print and broadcast, some reference is put into it. It can be substantial or really, really vauge and spun like crazy, but there has to be some event or statement for referral or it’s libel and legal action is possible. Rumors, however, can be started by just about anyone about just about anything. Substance is unnecessary, and if no element is demonstrable, the rumor morphs into a cover-up!

A whisper campaign is deplorable in such an important race. If there is something big to show, out with it. If you think there’s something to show, research it and get back to us. But to start a negative rumor this late in the campaign is a desperate attempt to change a losing outcome, and I believe the voters in Our Fair State are smarter than this.

(cross-posted at The Center of NJ Life)

Kean Jr claims he’ll start campaigning for senate on Nov 9

From the Hill:

New Jersey state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) said yesterday that he would begin running in earnest for the Senate seat starting the day after Election Day, which will involve stepping up his fundraising efforts and his public profile.

His third qtr. FEC filing lists him as having $767,935 on hand as of Sept 30.

Kean anticipates that the race will cost between $12 million and $15 million.

Looks like we’re not going to get much of a break in campaign season.

Blogger Power!

I cross posted this post on Media In Trouble, and Corzine Connection yesterday and Matt was kind enough to front page me…

Today Brian Lehrer (podcast) had Doug Forrester on (I live blogged it at here) and a caller (Lindsay) asked precisely the question about Entrepreneur Magazine rating NJ as the #2 place to start a business…

Lindsay asked Forrester to square his position (of NJ being number 45th) with Entrepreneur Magazine’s #2 rating… Forrester cited (presumeably) this Beacon Hill study (pdf).  

For the Record, Beacon Hill Institute resides in Suffolk University and is a conservative think tank (in Flaming liberalville Boston?!?) whose mission is… ahem:

Grounded in the principles of limited government, fiscal responsibility and free markets

I will delve into the Beacon Hill study to see if it is flawed in any way.  If so… I will report back to you my fellow readers.

Paying to the crowd?

From the Star Ledger’s trail mix:

As Doug Forrester accepted the endorsement of a black minister on a Newark street corner yesterday, more than 100 local residents were on hand to hold up campaign signs and cheer him on.

According to more than half a dozen of them, they had been promised $20 apiece for their enthusiasm.

“I don’t know a whole lot about who is running, but they are offering $20 and I came out to work for whoever needs help,” said Sheree Baker, 50, of Newark.

Shakirah Jones, 22, also said she was promised $20 “to scream out his name, I guess.”

An Open Letter to a Republican New Jersey Blogger

When I talk to my students about the image surrounding young people – that they just don’t care about the world around them – they are dumbfounded.  If I let them, they could go on for an hour straight about how they have given time and what little money they could muster to this cause or to that charity.  Then when I talk to them about voting, the classroom usually goes silent.  Out of a class of maybe fifty, I’ll be lucky if more than two people raise their hands when I ask who is registered to vote.  THAT, I tell them, is why their school funding is getting cut.  THAT, I tell them, is why the legal age to sign a contract to get killed in Iraq is eighteen but the legal age to have a beer is twenty-one.  THAT, I tell them, is why older people look at them with disgust and say they just don’t care.

But they DO care.  They care a lot.  Neglecting the spelling and grammar errors in the essays they write for me, some of them write some of the most moving stories about their personal connection to almost every single political topic we discuss – from a closeted homosexual who just wants to share property legally with his lover to a young man whose best friend was knifed by someone who never had permission to be in this country to a young woman who sometimes misses classes because the daycare center for her little brother isn’t always open – they care.  In fact, it is refreshing to me to listen to their stories and witness their passion and remember what it was like before I became somewhat jaded and understood that, perhaps, changing the world wouldn’t be as easy as I envisioned when I was eighteen.

But they don’t vote.

Forrester on Brian Lehrer: Open Thread

Today at 10 AM.

You can listen to the show at WNYC.org

You can email Brian Lehrer with any questions you might have.

Here is a good question:

Mr. Forrester, your positions tend to waver with the polls.  Can you please clarify, once and for all, your position on public funding for embryonic stem cell research, as well as who you think should pay for cleaning up Ringwood?

Judging by your public statements, you seem to have been against embryonic stem cell research, before you were for it, with the contention that you wouldn’t fund it with state funds.

Your public record also says that you were first FOR having tax payer funds pay for cleaning up Ringwood, but as of last night’s debate, you seem to now want to put the financial responsibility into polluter’s hands.

As a follow-up question, wouldn’t many consider this flip-flopping, waffling, and at the very least misleading?

Consider this an Open Thread for those who listen in.

Raising the poll

The AP is reporting results from the latest Quinnipiac Poll:

The survey of 636 likely voters had Corzine at 50 percent, the same as in the previous Quinnipiac poll, released Oct. 19. But Forrester dropped 5 percentage points, to 38 percent. Nine percent were undecided. The latest poll was conducted Oct. 24-30 and has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Earlier this year I was told by a campaign staffer that the GOP was pouring a lot of money into this race for two reasons:  a) it was one of only two significant campaigns this year and they had to spend their money somewhere and b) they were interested in testing out their strategy in New Jersey; if it worked well here, we would see it everywhere next year.

NJ-Gov: Corzine with HUGE 12 pt lead

A Quinnipiac poll released today has Jon Corzine leading Doug Forrester by 12 points, the largest margin in months. According to this poll, Corzine is leading 50-38. The previous Quinnipiac poll on Oct 19 had Corzine up 50-43. The same poll had Corzine leading by just 4 points on Sept 28th.

It looks like Corzine’s got the momentum, but I’m inclined to think this may be an outlier – at least until other polls confirm this. All the recent polls showed the race anywhere between 7-9 points, though an FDU poll out yesterday had Corzine up by just four: 44-40, while the previous FDU poll on Oct 28 had Corzine with a wider lead of 46-39.

UPDATE: As Gary points out in the comments: “The more important part of this poll shows that Corzine has edged ahead both in the question of corruption and property taxes for voters.” This is important because these were Forrester’s two supposed strengths.