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New ad from 4th district Dems

The Paul Moriarty and David Mayer team has just released their latest TV ad on their website:


Windows Media | QuickTime

These guys are running a smart campaign by taking advantage of all the technology tools available to reach out to constituents. How many Assembly campaigns can claim to have used podcasts? Though still in its infancy, this a tool that has the potential to reach traditionally apathetic younger audiences.

Tune in to 101.5 for debate

New Jersey 101.5 radio will be broadcasting the gubernatorial debate between Jon Corzine and Doug Forrester starting at 7:30pm on Tuesday night. Eric Scott of 101.5 will moderate the debate.

Also, don’t forget that Al Franken will be providing live commentary of the debate at the Stress Factory comedy club in New Brunswick. Get your tickets here. Some BlueJersey bloggers will be there, possibly live blogging the debate.

NJ voters watching Gov race more closely than baseball

A Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released today found that the NJ’s likely voters are paying more attention to the gubernatorial horse race than baseball:

According to the most recent Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll, by a 2 to 1 margin (57% to 29%) likely voters in New Jersey claim they are following the race for governor more closely than major league baseball.  â€œThis is encouraging news for both civics teachers and candidates,” said Peter Woolley who teaches government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University.  Only 13% of likely voters say they are following both about the same or neither one more than the other.

Corzine/Forrester tied

New WNBC/Marist poll: Corzine 44%, Forrester 43%:

Jon Corzine and Doug Forrester are in a statistical dead heat among New Jersey voters likely to vote on Election Day.  Corzine receives the support of 44% of likely voters compared with 43% for Doug Forrester.  13% are undecided.  When undecided voters are asked which candidate they are leaning toward, the results become 47% for Jon Corzine and 45% for Doug Forrester.  8% of likely voters remain undecided.

UpdateOctober 10, 2005 at 20:34:02 EST by jmelli As several others have pointed out, this poll appears to be an outlier. Chris at MyDD also notes that the small sample size also makes the poll suspect, along with the unreliability of likely voter models weeks before the election.

Holt: not so coy any more

Rush Holt’s campaign office sent out an email today that contained the entire article in PoliticsNJ.com that Jenny mentioned earlier regarding Holt’s subtle courting of Corzine for his Senate seat.

At the end of the PoliticsNJ article, there is some skeptism about Holt’s chances:

“I don’t think people know him around the state, particularly in the party structure, like they do Andrews or Menendez,” O’Neil said.  “He’d have work to do.  And I’m not sure about fund-raising.”

Holt’s email refutes both of these points. First on the issue of name recognition:

As flattering as this article is, there are a couple of additional points worth making.  The first is that Rush’s name recognition around the state is strong.  According to a recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University, Rush’s “name ID” is better than most contenders, and second only to one by barely more than the margin of error.  Additionally, the people that know him have a favorable impression by a whopping 26 points.

Then, on his fundraising capability:

A second point worth addressing is the question about Rush’s fundraising.  Rush has proven that he can raise substantial sums when necessary.  In 2000, for example, he raised $2.6 million – with an average donation of roughly $200!  In every election, he has asked for donations only when needed, and has always run a frugal campaign.

The irony of this email is that while the content of the article was about Rush’s subtle attempts at wooing Corzine, it ends with a not so subtle plea to constituents to help him flex his fundraising muscles and prove himself capable of filling his campaign coffers.

He has been able to do that only through your support.  Won’t you consider contributing today to show the “chattering class” what Rush is capable of?

I’d love to see Holt become our next Senator, but one concern that isn’t addressed and that may plague him is the possibility of creating two competitive races if he were to leave his Congressional seat:

“I also think that the Holt scenario overlooks the fact that there will be significant national Democratic Party opinion expressed on this race,” said Tom O’Neil, a party strategist.  “And they’re going to look at Holt and say, ‘Wait a minute— now you’ve put a Senate seat in play and a House seat.’  That’s different than with Menendez or Andrews, who are from much safer House districts.”

This situation underscores the importance of contesting every race in order to train and build the farm team for future races.

Thanks for Inviting Me!

I would like to thank BlueJersey.net for inviting me to be a front page blogger! This will be a wonderful opportunity for all of us to share ideas, analyze the wonderful and crazy world of New Jersey politics, and hopefully increase activism in our State!

For those of you that don’t know me, I serve as President of Democrats 2000, New Jersey’s largest and most active organization for young, professional Democrats.

Check us out at Democrats2000.com!

Codey finally helps out Corzine

Though he said he would have a role in campaigning for Corzine, Codey has been relatively out of sight these past few months. Now, with Forrester closing the gap, Codey has said he’ll be recording a radio ad to support Corzine’s campaign:

Acting Governor Richard Codey says he will cut a radio advertisement in support of Jon Corzine’s campaign for Governor on Tuesday. Codey made the announcement to a group of Democrats assembled Saturday morning at a local campaign headquarters in West Orange. The Codey ad comes a week after Doug Forrester began airing a TV spot featuring former Governor Thomas Kean.

The bad blood between Corzine and Codey is being put aside as Corzine reaches out for help from the very popular governor to help boost his campaign:

In the survey, more than half (57 percent) of New Jerseyans believe Codey is doing a good or excellent job, compared with 8 percent who rate his job performance as poor.

“The governor maintains a ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinion which outpaces the favorable/unfavorable ratio of the Democratic candidate for governor,” Woolley said. “One wonders whether it’s Codey who has the coattails in this race.”

Look for Codey to take on a more active role until election day. Corzine could use the help, and Codey may be vying for the soon to be vacant Senate seat. After tasting the power of the governorship, it’s doubtful that he’s looking forward to a demotion to the State Senate.

NJ GOP’s Ethics Failure

We all learned about Doug Forrester’s ethics problems throughout the summer–from pocketing senior prescription drug rebates, to winning no-bid pay to play contracts for his prescription firm Benecard. It turned out that Doug Forrester was the beast he was criticizing.

This morning the Gloucester County Times reported that 4th District GOP Assembly candidate Clayton Police Chief Frank Winters used funds from the Police Department to enrich his personal business–and then failed to disclose them on NJ State ELEC forms…that’s right, the GOP Police Chief.

New poll confirms close gov race

A new poll out by Angus Reid has Jon Corzine leading Doug Forrester 45% to 38% – a 4 point gain for Forrester over the previous poll conducted in September that had Corzine up by 11 points: 47% to 36%. The shift was within the poll’s margin of error of 4.5%. The poll was conducted on Oct 4th and confirms several recent polls that showed Forrester narrowing the gap against Corzine, including one by Quinnipiac University that had Corzine leading by only four points. Polls by Monmouth University and Fairleigh Dickinson University both showed Corzine ahead by eight points.

UpdateOctober 09, 2005 at 17:34:29 EST by jmelli: A Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll has Corzine ahead by just 7 points: 44% to 37%. Last month the same poll had Corzine up by 18 points: 49% to 31%. Most of Forrester’s gains come from Independent voters.

A 23-year old Democrat for Freeholder? Meet My Friend, Dana Wefer

(October Update)

Back in August I wrote about a friend of mine, Dana Wefer here online. Dana is a first-time candidate; at 23, she’s running for County Freeholder in Morris County, New Jersey (Freeholder is the NJ equivalent of County Commissioner, btw). She’s challenging Republican incumbent Margaret Nordstrom in a county that’s rather Republican (58-40% Bush in 2004). Nordstrom has used the power of incumbency to raise oodles of campaign contributions through play-to-pay contracts; Dana is a graduate student who’s been raising money from scratch. Nordstrom has been essentially invisible, preferring to avoid campaign events; Dana’s crisscrossed the county’s 39 towns and attended dozens of events since June. I would like this diary to show that no matter who you are or how old you are or where you’re from, you can still make a major impact in your community and your country. Dana’s been proving just that.

(Much more in the extended entry. If what’s above is enough to get you interested, go to http://www.danawefer.com to help out. Otherwise, read on…)