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Zogby & SUSA polls on Governor & Senate races

A Zogby/Wall Street Journal Interactive poll out today has Corzine leading Forrester by 11 points: 50.6 to 39.6. The margin of error was 3.6%, but this is an online poll which hasn’t been proven to be reliable yet, so take it with a grain of salt.

A Survey USA poll has the race tighter with independents breaking towards Forrester:

         11/7  10/25
Corzine   50   (50)
Forrester 44   (41)

For the Senate seat currently occupied by Corzine, several matchups were polled by Zogby. Tom Kean Jr, son of the former governor, beats Congressmen Rob Andrews and Rush Holt, but not by much, and that’s due in large part to their relatively low name recognition in the state and the fact that many people don’t realize that Kean is not the former governor. Codey, the most popular Democrat in the state, even breaks 50% in this poll.

Holt (D)     38.8
Kean Jr (R)  42.0

Andrews (D)  37.1
Kean Jr (R)  41.1

Codey (D)    50.0
Kean Jr (R)  38.8

The GOP smear strategy exposed: “All the News That’s Fit to S^&T

Earlier we wrote about the revelation that Forrester’s campaign manager was the source of rumors surrounding Corzine’s personal life. Enlighten-NJ started dropping hints of these and other rumors about two weeks ago. Finally, the last piece of the slime machine, the Drudge Report, helped push the rumors to the mainstream press. This set in motion blowback for the Forrester campaign, and dispirited the New Jersey electorate even further. Even Forrester condemned the rumors he set in motion (then later changed his mind), though he won’t go so far as to fire or discipline his campaign manager Rick England or communications staffer Sherry Sylvester for pushing them.

But I’m not so interested in the smear campaign so much as what it portends for the future, and specifically 2006.

Let’s start at the beginning. I wrote earlier about a blog called Enlighten-NJ. It appears to be part of a network of blogs funded to push rumors on Democrats (another one is here). This is version 2.0 of a strategy outlined here in Personal Democracy Forum: Daschle, Thune and the Blog-Storming of South Dakota…

Forrester retracts condemnation of campaign manager’s smearmongering

Yesterday we noted that while Forrester condemned his campaign manager for spreading lies about Corzine, he was unwilling to fire him from his campaign. That alone says a lot about his complete lack of ethics. Now, he’s flip-flopped and won’t even condemn the smearmongering of his most senior campaign officials:

Forrester, meanwhile, backtracked from his statement Friday condemning his campaign manager, Rick England, for fueling a rumor that Corzine had an affair with a young female political staffer. The Star-Ledger reported yesterday that England cited the rumor in an August conversation with a lobbyist for the New Jersey Education Association.

On Friday night, Sylvester said Forrester had spoken to England and “condemned” his actions. But Forrester said the issue came to his attention only yesterday morning through The Star-Ledger report. He said he would review the circumstances. Asked if there was any chance he would discipline England, he said, “Let me get the facts first.”

Either his spokesperson is a liar, or Forrester approves of these smear tactics. A man of real integrity however, wouldn’t let that happen in his campaign:

Corzine, however, said if such gossip were spread by senior people on his campaign, there’s no question what he would do: “I would ask him to step down.”

Forrester’s sleaze campaign having no effect on voters

A Monmouth University/Gannet NJ poll out on Saturday has Jon Corzine leading Doug Forrester by 9 points: 47-38. The poll director claims that Forrester’s attack ads and rumor-spreading haven’t worked:

The current poll was already being conducted when the Forrester campaign launched a television ad featuring a quote from Joanne Corzine, the Democrat’s ex-wife. Poll director Murray commented, “Our internal poll results for each evening suggest that this ad had no significant impact on the race. Voters indicate that both candidates have stepped over the line in the way they have run their campaigns, particularly with their attack ads. In fact, there is potential for this recent ad having a negative backlash for the Forrester campaign.”

An internal poll (take with extra grain of salt) funded by Congressman Rob Andrews shows Corzine leading Forrester by a whopping twelve points: 48-36. Again, the poll concludes that voters are rejecting the attack ads on Corzine:

Corzine leads Forrester 48 to 36 percent in a survey in which half of the interviews were conducted Thursday evening after the most recent ads aired. Interviews conducted that evening indicated no significant shift in the race.

Corzine hints at Codey as his pick for Senate

With the campaign wrapping up and no longer needing as much stumping help from all the potential Senate appointees, Corzine hints that he might pick Codey. From the Asbury Park Press:

In an interview on “The Brian Lehrer Show” on WNYC public radio, Corzine said he would have supported acting Gov. Codey for a full term “if circumstances were different” and indicated a willingness to elevate him to the U.S. Senate. If elected, Corzine would appoint his Senate replacement.

“We have a very good relationship. We will be very strong partners. He will be the (state) Senate president, unless other terms occur — for instance, if he wants to be considered for the Senate post, if I’m graced enough to be elected, we’ll consider that,” Corzine said.

Codey is the most popular Democrat in the state with an approval/disapproval rating of 60/15. But it’s not just New Jerseyans that like Codey. National Democrats want him to run, too…

Mainstream media, the last debate & the “NY Times front page”

Just watched the final ‘gloves off’ debate.

I am sick, sick, sick of NBC, the NY Times, and Star Ledger!

The moderator stunk.  Aired 4 negative ads for discussion purposes, which just ended up being a bruising repetition of what we’ve been reading here.  The NBC reporters who asked Forrester if he had an affair should be ashamed of themselves. And the 11pm news that ran it as a LEAD story.

For every time Forrester defended his running the Joanne Corzine ad with the fact that it was off the NY Times front page, I swear I’m going to go out and convince someone to cancel their subscription (which commits me to two so far, I don’t subscribe).  I just CAN’T BELIEVE they gave her the coverage, so that he could use it.  EVEN THE NY POST ran it in their gossip column!!! Cheerleaders for the Iraq war and proud to try to manipulate elections.

(crossposted at corzineconnection.com)

Campaign Slogans Wanted

We might be making some signs for election day.  What’s  the most effective slogan? Your suggestions are appreciated!

 Here’s mine:

FORRESTER:  SLEAZY CAMPAIGNER

CORZINE:  EXPERIENCED CEO, SENATOR, LEADER  
 

What a Difference a Poll Makes

One of the main ways used to keep an eye on political issues and campaigns is opinion polling. Everyone has seen them – Candidate A is ahead by 3% over Candidate B, etc.  For some reason, even though polling has proven over the years to be a remarkably crude tool, people fall in love with quoting the latest numbers from whatever poll has been published.

For example, Fairleigh Dickson University released a poll on November 4 which had support for Jon Corzine at 43% and support for Doug Forrester at 41%.  That’s pretty close.  But how these numbers are generated are important in determining what they mean.

Personally, I don’t put much faith in FDU’s polling.  Why?  Well, for one thing, the Margin of Error (MoE) is a whopping 5%.  But 5% isn’t much, right?