| NJ-2: If there was one District where Obama coattails might have offered reason for hope this year, it would be in NJ-2. For all the talk of gerrymandering following the 2000 census, the fact is the 2nd District is a D+4 district that supported Gore by a wide margin in 2000, and gave Bush only a single-point win in 2004. Obama brought it back into the democratic fold this year, and David Kurkowski seemed to pin his hopes on riding Obama's coattails. It was not to be.
Some would say that this race was all over the day Jeff Van Drew and Jim Whelan ruled it out, and any other assessment is a pipe-dream. We're not sure that was the truly the end of hopes in NJ-2. But, absent a compelling reason for electing Kurkowski - indeed, the candidate himself declined to enter the race until Van Drew and Whelan passed - Frank LoBiondo had little to fear.
Deserved or not, LoBiondo has developed supportive relationships with labor and environmental groups, law enforcement and veterans. In New Jersey, when the Republican gets the endorsement of the Sierra Club and NJEA, that's a District where the Democrat is unlikely to win.
One day soon, the 2nd District is going to make for an easy pickup for the Dems. Until then, this is going to be a tough place to find a win.
NJ-4: We'd like to tell you that Josh Zeitz gave Chris Smith a real run for the money this year. We'd like to say that, but we can't. In the end, all the exuberance of a bright, young, articulate candidate, the surprisingly good fundraising, and even the occasional nod from Governor Corzine and other party leaders wasn't enough to move this District at all this year from the 2006 result:
2006: Chris Smith 66% - Carol Gay 33%
2008: Chris Smith 66% - Josh Zeitz 33%
Common denominator: Chris Smith. Hard as it may be to believe, Smith is well-liked by his constituents - democrats included. Not unlike LoBiondo in NJ-2, Smith has enjoyed considerable support from labor and environmental groups through much of his career in the House. But, this year presented an even greater challenge.
This year - smack in the middle of the campaign - Smith made national headlines when he traveled to war-torn Georgia to negotiate the release of two young girls from his District trapped behind Russian lines while visiting their grandparents in Western Georgia. He returned to the District shortly after, girls in tow, a hero.
In any year, Smith has proven to be a tough incumbent to beat. But, 2008 was definitely not the year to do it.
NJ-11: Perhaps nowhere else in the state does victory seem so near, yet so far away than in Morris County, which makes up the bulk of the Eleventh District. Cycle after cycle promises to elevate Morris County to the next level of soon-to-be-former Republican strongholds, in the mold of Bergen or Passaic Counties. Yet, each cycle, Democrats find themselves on the losing side.
And the Congressional seat presents special problems beyond that. The incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen, is a member of one of New Jersey's longtime political families. Indeed, Rodney's father was a Congressman, and four Frelinghuysens have served as U.S. Senator from New Jersey, dating back to 1793. So, there's some history there.
And history repeated itself this year, with a rematch between Tom Wyka and incumbent Rodney Frelinghuysen. In 2006, Rodney won it by a 62%-37% margin, in a year when Wyka raised precious little money, and was forced to rely primarily on a field program, without the resources to penetrate the entire District.
This year, two years later, Wyka had the advantage of an early start, increased name recognition, and a corps of ardent supporters. He worked harder at fundraising, and though still woefully underfunded, did more than double the money raised last cycle.
The result?: Rodney won it by a 62%-37% margin.
Could a third time be the charm? Tom hinted he's open to the possibility. And, Morris Democrats may give him the chance - Tom is an extremely likeable and very very smart candidate, and it's really easy to picture him in Congress.
But, he has yet to raise the kind of money needed to make a competitive run for Congress. And, as long as Frelinghuysen holds the seat, and the name, of his ancestors, Wyka or anyone else running here is going to need to come up with something extra special to pull out a win.
NJ-1: Rob Andrews won his congressional race handily, but his surprise, last-minute challlenge to Frank Lautenberg for the Senate nomination, and his subsequent post-defeat retreat back to run for that 1st CD seat he swore he was done with, will probably have a corrosive effect on his political career. The issues he raised in the primary against Lautenberg, picked up and dusted off for use by Dick Zimmer in the general, didn't work for either man. |
