1 user logged onTips: BlueJerseyDotCom (AIM) |      

Log In
Sign Up | Forgot Password?

How Democratic is YOUR County?

by: Dvd Avins

Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 06:36:43 PM EST



It's more than a little backward how much state political power is defined at the county level, when outside of Hudson, most voters have rather weak identification with their county. But that's the way it is. And power comes in part from how many votes you can deliver.

At the old Middlesex County victory gatherings I used to attend, status was based on the margin your town brought in. The Freeholder (or whatever race the bigwigs were concerned with) total for the Democrats minus that for the Republicans. I suppose it works similarly at the state level with counties, at least sometimes. Better might be to compare what you delivered with the most and least that your town could have delivered, but that was too complicated and subjective.

Another source of power is the ability to have your candidates win a state-wide primary. That would be based more on the raw number of Democrats in your county.

And if you want to see which counties ought to have the most progressive government and political culture, you can look at the percentage of the vote that goes Democratic.

Now is a good chance to see how Democratic the counties are, because in Lautenberg-Zimmer, we've just had about the most generic state-wide race imaginable. Neither candidate had a significant local base. Neither candidate had a controversial or shining personality. It was a Democratic year, but Lautenberg's age probably balances that. So the 2008 NJ-Sen race gives us an unusually good window to voters' proclivities, independent of their satisfaction or dissatisfaction with their Freeholders or anyone else.

Below the fold are tables with the counties ranked from 1 to 21 by each of the three measures above, using the Senate returns current on the Daily Kos tracker as of this afternoon. I suppose a few more votes may yet trickle in, so these totals may not be final.

EDIT: fixed first table to include Bergen only once and to include Essex

Dvd Avins :: How Democratic is YOUR County?
Counties by Lautenberg Margin
RANKCOUNTYMARGIN
1Essex128,246
2Hudson77,476
3Camden 64,907
4Middlesex56,570
5Bergen45,448
6Union43,053
7Passaic39,287
8Mercer34,943
9Burlington26,595
10Gloucester17,729
11Atlantic14,010
12Cumberland12,172
13Salem3,200
14Cape May-3,310
15Somerset-6,234
16Warren-9,249
17Sussex-14,450
18Hunterdon-17,749
19Monmouth-18,282
20Morris-29,760
21Ocean-30,256




Counties by Lautenberg Vote
RANKCOUNTYVOTE
1Bergen194,439
2Essex188,573
3Middlesex 162,203
4Monmouth131,071
5Camden129,168
6Hudson115,203
7Ocean108,419
8Union107,756
9Burlington105,962
10Passaic98,342
11Morris85,164
12Mercer83,952
13Gloucester72,519
14Somerset62,315
15Atlantic56,327
16Cumberland30,568
17Sussex27,043
18Hunterdon22,710
19Cape May18,014
20Warren17,847
21Salem16,015




Counties by Lautenberg Percentage (Percentage is of major party vote only.)
RANKCOUNTYPERCENT
1Essex76%
2Hudson75%
3Camden 67%
4Mercer63%
5Union62%
6Passaic62%
7Cumberland62%
8Middlesex61%
9Burlington57%
10Atlantic57%
11Gloucester57%
12Bergen57%
13Salem56%
14Somerset48%
15Monmouth47%
16Cape May46%
17Ocean44%
18Morris43%
19Warren40%
20Sussex39%
21Hunterdon36%
Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
nice tables (4.00 / 2)
So you can see why no one cares about Salem County -- dead last in number of votes for Lautenberg even though he won here! -- but it is the most evenly divided county. So it might be a good test case on appealing to independents. Then again, may not, given its rural character.

I actually think that the split is pretty healthy for county government, at least the opposition party has some voice and knowledge of what is going on.  There are an awful lot of scandals coming out of single-party rule counties, whether Democratic or Republican.  

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch


Yes, competition is good (0.00 / 0)
A high Democratic percentage says the county government ought to be good, not that it tends to be in our current political culture. The corruption enabled by one party government usually overcomes the advantages.

[ Parent ]
Yay, Essex! (0.00 / 0)
I'm happy to see my county, Essex, at the top of the heap. I'm even prouder of my own election district (Maplewood 3 - where I am one of the two Democratic Party district leaders), where we went 81% for Obama.

I think there is (0.00 / 0)
a mistaken belief in a "Hudson County Democrat".  That is only true of the HCDO - which functions as a power-hub to keep everyone reasonably satisfied.  Everyone else is intensely parochial.  Jersey City Democrats want nothing to do with Hoboken, who want nothing to do with North Bergen or Bayonne.  

What about non-politically? (0.00 / 0)
It's my impression that when I ask someone from Jersey City or Weehauken where in the state they're from, they're as likely to say Hudson County as their town.

[ Parent ]
I've never (4.00 / 1)
had someone say they were from Hudson County.  There are major rivalries at the local level.

Maybe it just depends on where you are at when you ask them.


[ Parent ]
This state is in need of some serious re-districting (0.00 / 0)
For a state that has voted Democrat so heavily over the past years to have a Congressional Delegation split 8-5 is irritating.  My Union County vote for Stender got overwhelmed by the Hunterdon County folks.  Union County gets screwed because we are split into too many different Congressional Districts.  

They should be able to gerrymander the state so that it is 10-3 at worst - without even creating completely warped districts.


i don't know where to begin (1.00 / 1)
did you just make an educated guess at a conslusion and take it from there?

you might as well ask a question like "how white is your county" or "how rich is your county" and make a nice little table to demonstrate the rankings and then pass it off as something other than a coincidence.

WTF is happening at Blue jersey that this kind of drivel passes as front page stuff?

activist for hire.Follow jay_lass on Twitter


What guess are you talking about? (0.00 / 0)
And what coincidence? The purpose was to provide context, for when we read about goings on in various counties. The headline is merely a hook, encouraging people's natural curiosity about how their own corners of the world fit into a larger picture.

I expect to continue from time to time to present data that will be useful both for those who wish to understand how our candidates are chosen and for those who intend to take an active part in the nomination process. I'm not sure why that disturbs you.


[ Parent ]
are you "annoyed" because Camden isn't #1 or because it used Lautenberg??? (0.00 / 0)
There are all different ways to rank Democratic performance.  As someone from a relatively smaller county, I like the idea of looking at how many times statewide Democratic candidates have carried the county.  Atlantic County hasn't given a majority to a Republican since 1988 (Whitman did receive a plurality against McGreevey).

Would the information be all that different if we used Obama?


[ Parent ]
Obama did better in Somerset (0.00 / 0)
Perhaps that's because Zimmer is still liked there from his time in Congress. For that reason, I briefly considered using Obama.

But I think it's more likely, that the Somerset difference is that Republicans there tend to be highly educated and culturally moderate, a demographic that could not support the GOP ticket for Pres/VP this year.

And it's certain that Obama and McCain (and Palin) had higher profiles than either Lautenberg or Zimmer state-wide, so they couldn't provide as generic a test.


[ Parent ]
What do with the bottom half? (4.00 / 3)
I think the table is useful because it provides context to the election results.
I'm from Somerset County, where Obama won and Lautenberg lost.  Tom Wyka and Linda Stender got crushed.  The Democratic County Freeholders lost big too.  Campaign strategies and party building strategies need to be very different in counties at the bottom of the table versus the top.  Right?  I'll start a separate diary of my own about campaign tactics in Republican dominated counties.

That sounds like a good idea. (0.00 / 0)


Check out my 3 paragraph primer on Polywell Fusion.

[ Parent ]
Featured Stories

Hate Ads? Make them disappear.
Subscribe:

Blue Jersey Essentials

 EDITORIAL DIRECTOR
 Rosi Efthim

 STAFF WRITERS
 Adam L a/k/a/ clammyc
 Bill Orr
 Deciminyan
 Hopeful
 Jay Lassiter
 Jeff Gardner
 Jersey Jazzman
 KendalJames
 Senator Loretta Weinberg
 the_promised_land
 Rosi Efthim

» About | FAQ | In the News
» 
» Tips:
» Front Page RSS Feed
» User Diaries RSS Feed
» Blue Jersey on Twitter » Blue Jersey on Facebook » Blue Jersey T-shirts
ADVERTISEMENT

Blog Roll

» Alicia Menendez
» Alive and Kickin
» Baristanet
» Blog the Fifth
» Capitol Quickies
» The Center of NJ Life
» Channel Surfing
» Daily Newarker
» The Englewood Report
» Frank Lobiondo Record
» Fred Snowflack
» Freedom to Tinker
» Garden State Grapevine
» ClearysNoteBook
» Herb Jackson
» Hoboken Journal
» Hoboken Now
» Jersey Blogs
» Jersey Jazzman
» Middletown Mike
» More Monmouth Musings
» NJ Domestic Partnership
» NJ Politics Unusual
» NJ Voices: Policy Watch
» On Our Radar
» The Opinion Mill
» Other Spaces
» Plainfield Plaintalker
» PolitickerNJ
» Retire Garrett
» Ruins of Trenton
» Senator Ray Lesniak
» Stovetop Diplomacy
» Sustainable Cherry Hill
» The Subversive Garden
» Teaneck Progress
» Trenton Kat
» We Don't Need Permission
» Xpatriated Texan

Cartoons

» M.e. Cohen
» Jimmy Margulies
» Drew Sheneman
» Rob Tornoe
Search




Advanced Search












Ads do not constitute
an endorsement
from Blue Jersey.



Blue Jersey Gear

Visit the Blue Jersey store. T-shirts, bumper stickers & more!


Shirts available in dozens of styles and colors.



Visit the Blue Jersey Store

Contact Us
» Editor: 
» Press releases: 
» Advertising inquiries: 
» Tips:
About Us
» About Blue Jersey
» Blue Jersey in the News
» FAQ/Usage
» 
» RSS Feed

Misc Stuff
» Blue Jersey Radio
» Blue Jersey on Twitter
» Facebook Group
» MySpace Page
» NJ Politics 101 Wiki
» Blue Jersey Podcast
» Screaming Carrot Award
» Contribute to Blue Jersey
7754 satisfied users, visits and 0 subpoenas served since Sept 28, 2005
© Blue Jersey, powered by the mighty SoapBlox.
Powered by: SoapBlox